Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer will bid for spots in the Wimbledon second week when they take the court again on Saturday. Nadal faces another potentially tough test in Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, while Federer is going up against Lucas Pouille.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs. (3) Rafael Nadal
Nadal and Tsonga will be squaring off for the 13th time in their careers when they clash in the Wimbledon third round on Saturday. The head-to-head series stands at 8-4 in Nadal’s favor, a respectable record for Tsonga relative to the Spaniard’s dominance of most opponents. Their only previous grass-court contest came eight years ago at Queen’s Club, where the Frenchman prevailed 6-7(3), 6-4, 6-1. Of course, Nadal was making a quick turnaround following his sixth French Open title and Tsonga was at his peak in those days. The 34-year-old is a shadow of his former self right now, plagued by injuries and struggling at 72nd in the rankings. He has benefited from a favorable draw at the All-England Club, coasting past Bernard Tomic and Ricardas Berankis in straight sets.
Tomic was fined all of his first-round prize money for failing to meet a professional standard in terms of effort (ie, “tanking”) against Tsonga. Saturday’s opponent, of course, is at the complete opposite end of the spectrum. Even more motivated than usual against unfriendly rival Nick Kyrgios, Nadal survived a high-quality 6-3, 3-6, 7-6(5), 7-6(3) battle with Kyrgios on Thursday evening. The world No. 2 preceded that result with a 6-3, 6-1, 6-3 beatdown of Yuichi Sugita. Nadal is riding a 14-match winning streak and his performance in round two will give him the utmost confidence for the remainder of this fortnight.
Pick: Nadal in 3 losing 12 games or fewer
[polldaddy poll=10357276]
(27) Lucas Pouille vs. (2) Roger Federer
Whereas Nadal was fired up to an unprecedented extent–even by his standards–against Kyrgios, Federer has not come close to putting things into top gear. With a draw even friendlier than Tsonga’s, the third-ranked Swiss eased past Lloyd Harris and British wild card Jay Clarke in the first two rounds (although he actually dropped the opening set to Clarke). Eyeing a ninth Wimbledon title, Federer recently triumphed for the 10th time in Halle to set himself up nicely for success in SW19.
Up next for the 37-year-old Saturday is a second career matchup with Pouille. They previously faced each other five years ago on the indoor hard courts of Paris, where Federer cruised 6-4, 6-4. Pouille is obviously a much different player now, but he is slumping in 2019 following several mostly impressive seasons. Down to 28th in the rankings, Pouille is a mediocre 12-12 in 2019 and 7-11 in his last 18 matches. He did not have to do much in rounds one and two, taking advantage of compatriots Richard Gasquet and Gregoire Barrere in straight sets. Nothing about those results nor anything Pouille has accomplished since the Australian Open (semifinals) suggests he can seriously challenge Federer.
Pick: Federer in 3 losing 11-14 games
[polldaddy poll=10357278]
WWW?
Federer 3-1
Nadal 3-2
I reckon Tsonga can go close.
Pouille ‘s results this grass season are solid. Tsonga’s in top gear now. Nadal will need to be at his best.
Federer in three Tsonga in five
Correction: did not mean to type that my pick is NADAL IN FIVE*****
No disrespect to Tsonga, but I just don’t see how the 2019 version of him can handle Rafa at a major. If this were 5+ years ago, then maybe it would be a different story. But Rafa would have had the edge over Tsonga at Wimbledon when Tsonga was at his absolute peak. Now Tsonga is no longer the player he used to be, while Rafa is still at the top of his game.
As I’ve felt all along, barring some sort of unforeseen streaking by Tsonga or Kyrgios (that hurdle is cleared) or injury to Rafa, I just don’t see Rafa losing to anyone at Wimbledon this year outside of Djokovic or, possibly, Federer. I would be SHOCKED if Rafa lost to anyone not named Djokovic or Federer.
I said a few months ago that I believe Rafa will win Wimbledon one more time before he retires, and I stand by that belief. He played better at Wimbledon last year than I had seen play there in many years. While he didn’t win the match against Novak, I believe that his matches against Del Po and Djoko really brought out the true Wimbledon contender in Rafa that we hadn’t seen for a long time. If he can play in this tournament the way I saw him play in the SF last year, he can be holding that trophy again. He just happened to come up against a Novak that we hadn’t seen for a couple years before that match- the Novak who is also an all-time great still at the top of his game when he needs to be. I am predicting that we get a rematch of last year’s SF in this year’s final, and I believe it has the potential to be just as incredible as last year’s match. After that match last year, while he ended up losing, there is no doubt in my mind that it gave Rafa the belief that he can beat a top-form Novak at Wimbledon. Rafa was an inch away from beating the guy who would go on to become the Wimbledon champ for the 3rd time in 5 years. Rafa knows he can still beat anyone in the world at Wimbledon. He just needs to execute it, and I believe he is going to either this year or next year.
Kevin, I always find it refreshing how optimostic you are re: Rafa’s chances at every non-clay tourney☺
I share your optimism as far as Tsonga is concerned, though. As to Djoker and Fed – we will see. It’s still a long way to go. Unfortunately Rafa missed last year one of the biggest opportunities to win a third Wimby title. Who knows if the opportunity will present itself again?
Something else: I am incredibly disenchanted by the young guns. They don’t seem to be able to make any significant breakthrough at all! This year’s trophy will go again to one of the Big Three! It’s mindboggling…
I am with you about the “Young Guns”, littlefoot. It’s so disenchanting… I’ve been just assuming for a while that maybe the Big 3 really are still THAT much better than everyone else. But I’m starting to really wonder now… Can we really say that the Big 3 are still just unbeatable when it’s not even the Big 3 who these young guys are consistently losing to? The Young Guns are most often losing to random players ranked between 100 and 10. That’s what’s concerning to me. Before they can worry about trying to overcome the top guys, first they need to learn to consistently get TO the top players at the biggest tournaments. Are these young guys actually just not that good yet? Maybe with the way the game is played now, it just takes forever for players to get consistent enough?
They’re not so bad, just lacking in big match experiences. Tsitsipas has already reached a slam SF at AO, beating Fed along the way before losing to Rafa there. At RG, he lost an epic five setter to Stan who’s the former champion there (Fed had a hard time beating Stan in the next round). He didn’t do well on grass because he couldn’t get used to the transition from clay to grass, just give him more time. I think he’ll do well in the coming HC season and at the USO. To me he’s the most promising prospect from the next gen to win a slam, before FAA catches up.
FAA has just played at a slam for the first time in his career; he’s about to lose in the third round. What he lacks is big match experiences at a slam, he will get better soon. He’s only 18 going on 19.
It took Fed until almost 22 to reach a slam SF and to win his first slam and Djoko at almost 21 to win one. Both Tsitsipas and FAA are still young and to me they’re the two best prospects among the next gen to become slam winners, ahead of their peers.
The Big 3 are absolutely amazing even in their twilight years. Fed and Rafa have both made adjustments to their play style. Djokovic has improved aspects of his, although I think he still plays basically the same game. But Tsitsipas will be a winner. He’s got the mindset and the game. He crashed out of Wimbly, true, failed to make the adjustment to grass, but he’s done well at the slams for his age. He lost one of the best matches at RG round of 16 to Stan who is no slouch on clay, lost badly to Rafa at the AO semi. Not too shabby. We’ll see how FAA develops – clearly he’s no Becker at Wimbledon, winning at 17 and 18. Let’s see how he does at USO. Zverev is having a mediocre year overall, due at least in part to some personal problems. I suspect Shapovalov is a flash in the pan but we’ll see.
Roger’s been unlucky at the slams for awhile, losing a heartbreaker to Anderson at Wimbly last year, to Millman?!? at USO on a very hot humid night and an inspired Tsitsipas at AO. He did well to reach the semis at RG this year. Djokovic has been almost unstoppable at slams for the last year – until Thiem got him at RG. Rafa’s been unbeatable at RG for the last three years now and has done very well at the others but he’s increasingly vulnerable to injury especially on hard courts. At least one of the Big Three has stepped it up at each slam but we really haven’t seen a Clash of the Titans final lately, have we? Accidents of the draw, mostly? Maybe this time around….
I give Tsonga a chance to at least make things competitive. He has the type of power game that can trouble Nadal and he has seen good form on grass so far in 2019, with a tight match against Fed at Halle. First set will be the key. If Nadal takes that I think Tsonga will quickly fold.
I also think Pouille will challenge Fed. Fed has been unconvincing in the first two rounds. Slow starts and mental lapses. He will need to clean up and show up for the match, which he knows better than anyone.
Any thoughts on how the court surface favors the big three? Who amongst them benefits most from the allegedly slow surface? Opinion seems divided ….
As for the young guns …. it was easy for them to come up initially and be the disrupters …. but they are now dealing with expectations for the first time and crumbling …. In Tsitsipas’ case I believe he was carrying a bit of an injury from Queens. But Khachanov today was VERY disappointing. And let’s not waste our breath about Zverev ….
Like Ricky pointed out, Tsonga had a very favorable Wimbledon draw so far. He’s in top gear? Really? Didn’t even make it to QFs on grass this year. Took one set from Raonic (Milos is still coming back from injury) and one from Federer (which just lost another set this week to whom?). Are these promising results nowadays?
Now, looking at Tsonga’s stats compared to Kyrgios’ (yesterday), they are much weaker (first serve percentage, winners/unforced would be the most telling). And JW got those against a much lesser player than Nadal. Kyrgios did much better and managed to get a set. Nadal will feel much less incomfortable against Tsonga and his morale will be much higher.
Normally Rafa won’t need more than three sets and 2 hours to comprehensively beat the frenchman.
Humbert is cruising against Auger-Aliassime. Didn’t see that one coming even though Humbert is a dangerous opponent.
What happened to FAA? Didn’t get to see the match; was he playing badly or Humbert playing that well to beat him in straight sets?
both
A Fedal SF looks very possible if Roger doesn’t fold until then.
I think Rafa meeting Kyrgios in the 2nd round was a good thing for him. It wouldn’t be the same if he won against a weaker opponent. This match will gives him a lot of confidence. I really don’t see how Tsonga could trouble him. Hopefully is gonna be competitive. I am not so sure about Fed vs Pouille. He has to improve his game. Now is the time to prepare for the SF.
Rafa and Fed both in 3….cruise control.
FAA is a bit like Rafa. Rafa lost in R3 (at Wimbledon) in his first ever slam appearance, at age 17 in 2003. FAA lost in R3 here in his first slam appearance. Rafa of course went on to win his first slam (at the FO) in 2005 as a 19 yo, in his sixth slam appearance. Let’s see how FAA fares at the slams going forward.
So far I’m not expecting too much from FAA. He is still VERY young and players seem to mature later than even a decade ago. But I have to agree with Kenny to a certain extent. It’s very frustrating that the younger generation doesn’t seem to be able to handle lower ranked players more comfortably. This year’s Wimby has been a total disaster. Right now I cannot see anyone who will be able to challenge Fed and the Djoker. And I doubt that Tsonga and Querrey will become huge problems for Rafa, although he definitely has the most challenging draw, and Wimby has not been his luckiest slam in the last nine years . But the younger generation really doesn’t make life too difficult for the Big Three atm. I”m starting to believe that they can maintain their top positions for a while – as long as they stay healthy the younger players don’t make their life too difficult .
From the bunch of very young players I also like Tsitsipas best, although the experts seem to favor FAA. I was very disappointed that Tsitsipas lost so early. Hopefully he will have a good hard court season. He strikes me as the maturest of the young guns and he seems to have the will to succeed.
While he had some success at other tournaments, I have no idea if Zverev will ever make a real breakthrough at the slams, Thiem has at least lived up to his potential as far as clay is concerned. It’s not his fault that the best clay courter who ever took up a raquet is still very much in business. But Thiem made at least two slam finals. But he definitely has to get better on other surfaces.
I’m backing Tsonga to win this. Forget 2019 versions etc, players peak and different times during the year and Tsonga is flying right now.
Tsonga 3-1 (maybe 3-2)
Pouille can beat Fed also. Im not tipping the upset but I think he can give Fed is first real test this year at Wimbledon.
Fed 3-1 (maybe 3-2 or Pouille wins)
I give Nadal a chance to at least make it competitive.
Yep, Jim, I agree if the sets go 3 and 2, it feels like it will be Pouille over Fed.
Rafa in 3
Guessing Pouille will get at least a set.
Drunk Jim Courier!!!
Yeah he does underestimate Rafa lol.
Elisabeth, I have no idea if “Jim Courier” has the best prediction record here at the Grandstand, as he claims, or not. But he definitely has the worst prediction record here as far as Rafa’s matches are concerned, lol!
Ikr!! lol!!
Nope the same one that tips the most winners on this site.
If I say Tsonga can win you should pay attention.
No we should not bcos u consistently pick against Rafa, even on clay! So ure predictions, with all due respect, are rubbish, really.
That’s right Monalisa. He might know how to make money sports betting
it sounds like that is his thing on the daily pick page. But when it comes to Rafa, his predictions here are completely unreliable.
Jim Courier says:
“If I say Tsonga will win you should NOT pay attention.”
There, I fixed it for him. 😀
Can win , not will win .
And it would be a shock if Pouille beats Fed
Elisabeth, I have no idea if “Jim Courier” has the best prediction record here at the Grandstand, as he claims, or not. But he definitely has the worst prediction record here as far as Rafa’s matches are concerned, lol!
Littlefoot,
He might have the best record here, I don’t know. All I know is that it sticks in my mind that he underestimates Rafa LOL! But he’s right about me: I should pay more attention in general. My mother always told me. 😀
Fed is having a decent year given his age, but I don’t think his overall form has been very impressive. He got himself into trouble a couple of times at Halle despite the courts there being super-quick. As he has gotten older his peaks have just dropped a bit, and so has the consistency. The first couple of matches here have been soft opponents but he hasn’t won super-convincingly. It seems the courts are playing a bit slower too, which doesn’t help one bit. I guess it’s enough that he’s just ‘getting the job done’, but I think he needs to up his level a little here against Pouille or he could find himself in trouble.
Hopefully I’m wrong but I have a gut feeling he won’t make it to a semi with Rafa, despite the draw being in his favour to that point.
Rafa has looked good, the match against Kyrgios was one of the highest level contests so far and he came through it which will give him some confidence. If he brings the same level & aggression against Tsonga I don’t think there will be much of an issue. Tsonga may be in his best patch of form in a while but unlike Fed at Halle, this is best of five. When was the last time Tsonga played a consistent best of five match against a top player? He has barely played any in recent years.
Fed in 4, Rafa in 3.
Federer in 3 and Tsonga in 4.
Tsonga’s forehand will not be as less powerful as Kyrgios. Hence, the powerful serve and forehand of Tsonga should be enough to beat Nadal in 4 sets.
Tsonga’s BH is his weakness. Rafa will attack his BH most of the times. Tsonga’s serve not as great as Kyrgios’ so I think Rafa can and will handle that; Tsonga’s FH isn’t that great tbh so Rafa’s new improved flat lethal BH should be able to deal with it.
Rafa in four sets is my prediction.
Uhmmmmmm!Smh!
Be calm, be focused, be confident, be courageous, be strong, Rafa!
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D-xbDIMXoAczW-b.jpg