First on clay. Now on grass.
Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal will be facing each other in a second straight Grand Slam semifinal–a relative streak by this rivalry’s recent standards–when they meet again at Wimbledon on Friday afternoon.
Nadal leads the head-to-head series 24-15, but Federer holds a 13-10 edge on surfaces other than clay. The Swiss has won two of their three previous grass-court encounters, all of which have come in Wimbledon finals. He prevailed 6-0, 7-6(5), 6-7(2), 6-3 in 2006 and 7-6(7), 4-6, 7-6(3), 2-6, 6-2 in 2007 before Nadal triumphed 6-4, 6-4, 6-7(5), 6-7(8), 9-7 in perhaps the greatest match ever played in 2008.
“(I’m) excited to be back on this court against him after 11 years,” said the Spaniard. “(It) means a lot for me and probably for him, too. (I’m), excited about this match, excited about this opportunity to be again against him.”
Following those three consecutive showdowns from 2006 through 2008, the two all-time greats suddenly went 10 years without colliding a single time at the All-England Club. In fact, they did not square off at any slam in between the 2014 and 2017 Australian Opens or at any slam in between the 2017 Australian Open and 2019 French Open. Nadal predictably dominated 6-3, 6-4, 6-2 in the Roland Garros semis en route to his 18th major title and now he and Federer are going at it again just one month later.
It is Federer’s turn to have proverbial home-court advantage this time around. The 37-year-old has won eight of his 20 major titles at the All-England Club and he has been to the final on three other occasions. Federer has improved his lifetime Wimbledon record to 100-12 following victories this fortnight over Lloyd Harris (four sets), Jay Clarke, Lucas Pouille, Matteo Berrettini, and Kei Nishikori (four sets).
Nadal is certainly no slouch in London, with two titles and three runner-up performances. The world No. 2 is 5-1 in Wimbledon semifinals, having lost only to Novak Djokovic 6-4, 3-6, 7-6(9), 3-6, 10-8 last summer in a contest that lasted two days because of the preceding Kevin Anderson vs. John Isner match followed by eventual darkness. Nadal finds himself back in the semis thanks to defeats of Yuichi Sugita, Nick Kyrgios (four sets), Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Joao Sousa, and Sam Querrey.
“It’s going to be tough,” Federer assured. “Rafa really can hurt anybody on any surface. I mean, he’s that good. He’s not just a clay-court specialist, we know…. I feel like conditions were slightly different (at the French Open),” he continued when asked if any past matches against Nadal would have any impact on Friday’s outcome. “It was so windy; it was just insane. I haven’t heard it was going to be the same, so I hope not, even though that would be funny again.”
Actually, conditions should be just about perfect–good news for both players but especially music to Nadal’s ears since the roof will be open, which was not the case when he fell to Djokovic in 2018.
Federer also noted that current form would have more to with the upcoming result than head-to-head history. Neither factor, however, favors the No. 2 seed. Although he is without question playing stellar tennis, Nadal has been ruthless throughout the event and has posted more convincing wins over tougher grass-court opposition. Although grass obviously levels the playing field, it should not completely tip the scales away from another Nadal victory.
Pick: Nadal in 4
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I will say it again – no one came on here to trash Fed or take cheap shots at him after he lost to Rafa at RG. The difference between Rafa fans and Fed fans. To see this trailer trash POS on here trashing Rafa when these cowards hide when Fed loses, is just sickening.
No congratulations from me after reading g this garbage. Some people truly need professional help. This is a life?
I was out and missed the last three sets. I recorded it and will watch it when I get home to see what happened.
Fed absolutely deserved this win. But I.am.incredibly disappointed with how Rafa played. So nervy and timid and playing as if he was on clay. Only in the last few points did we see him finally.going for the corners instead of endlessly hitting back.to.fed. And his serve wasn’t good enough. Toni.was shaking his head and I don’t blame him . Rafa just wasn’t there mentally . Fed deserved the win but Rafa can play way better than he did today. Not saying he would.have won but it could have been an epic five setter rather than a choke.
Yeah amy!…I agree wholeheartedly with u…
This is the 2nd time it happened…played brilliant tennis 5,6 previous matches..and then suddenly fell apart when mattered the most….I won’t fall for it ever again next time!…Unless on clay of coz!!
Mira it’s very worrying how nervy and weak mentally he was today. He can play so much better and that is taking nothing away from how brilliant Fed was.
Tsame.
Roger showed up with confidence. Rafa did not. Sooo many opportunities to put points away or hit deeper when not pressured but he was too tight.
Also, I have no idea who decides on UEs. No way Rafa had less UEs than Fed.
Hope Nole keeps Fed at 20 slams but Fed has a great chance to win on Sunday.
Well done Fed.
I don’t think Rafa ever totally recovered from his nervy 2015 self hawks. That part of him seems to.reappear every now and then. It’s quite upsetting. I could see practically straightaway that there was a problem.
Feel the same way Amy. Credit to Federer for putting those doubts in the forefront of his mind though.
Hard to watch him not play to his full potential. Yes of course Fed controlled many points, but Rafa wasn’t aggressive enough when he was in position to be. He put a lot of balls into the net and had ample opportunities to go for more on Feds second serve but instead returned them short way too often.
Federer has rare lapses in confidence which is part of the reason he’s accomplished so much.
I can handle this loss much better than last year. That nonsense with the roof being closed while it was sunny outside was the lamest thing I have ever seen. That match turned in a few points and the winner had an easy ticket to the final with Anderson. That one stayed with me a long time.
This time it was fair and square. From what I did see watching the first set before I had to leave, Fed was playing better than Rafa. He came out ready and brought it. He was the better player on the day. I can live with that. It’s the way of it in sports.
I give Fed a lot of credit for being able to produce that kind of tennis. Well done.
I havent watched a Nadal match live in a long time. Maybe I jinxed it. But this one will be much harder to come by in the future.
I think I might just go back to not watching and just hope Nadal wins a couple more.
If Fed wins the final. it would be Novak, Nadal and Fed each in 2019. would be nice I think.
I am ok with the loss PK. Rafa lost fair and square. Last year was much worse because of the roof and we all felt that was unfair. I am very disappointed.with how Rafa played but that is a different matter. Some extraordinary errors at times.
I didn’t think before today that Fed could beat Rafa and Nole back.to back. Think he can now but Nole will be a lot tougher than today.
Rafa in many rallies today looked a step slower.
Let’s hope Fed beat Nole in the final.
If Nole takes another slam here, he is taking 4 out of last 5 slams which makes him look like the real GOAT
I mean if Djoko is the real goat then so be it! Anyway I won’t consider Rafa as a goat candidate when he just couldn’t win on grass while the other two could.
The other two goat candidates could win so much on the other surfaces but Rafa couldn’t. He just dominates on a single surface whilst the other two could dominate on multiple surfaces; so they win imo. Rafa is the goat on clay!
There is no real Goat lucky. Djoko is not clearly better than Fedal. Rafa is a goat, just like the other 2.
Incredidble match from Fed. His tennis is just amazing!
Drama in the final game and I wish 5-5 happened haha. Anyway? Fed was the better player clearly today!
Regarding Rafa, just not happy with his forehand. I know he can be and he normally is more destructive with his forehand the DTL shot was missing its mark and the most disappointing was the IO forehand! He let fed stay in rallies as he was not going for enough.
Fed had a great all-round performance. His strength was the deuce court and he worked the patterns so well.
Incredible champions these two! In no time they’ll be playing doubles in Laver Cup!
Thank you, Amy. Even as someone who considers themself a fan of Federer, I have been seriously humbled… I did not think Fed still had a win like that in him. I truly believed he would not beat Rafa again at a major. I fully admit I was wrong. I actually was not able to watch the match or even follow it, so I have no idea how it went. I will have to watch both semis before I decide if I believe that Fed has more than just a puncher’s chance of finally getting past Novak again at a major. Honestly, I don’t think watching those matches would sway me anyway. While I didn’t think Fed would be able to beat Rafa, I at least knew Fed had a chance because he has had good success against Rafa in the last few years. With Novak, however, Fed still has yet to overcome what I see as a serious mental block against Novak at the biggest matches. I am not a person who makes predictions based on hunches or anything like that. I’m not sure if there is objectively any evidence to show that Fed should be favored at all in this Final. Novak may not be quite as great right now as he was in 2014-2016, but Fed is also no longer at the level he was at in 2015. Have we seen any reason to believe that Fed is ready to suddenly overcome a serious 6-year-long mental block at almost 38 years old? I just don’t think so.
For me, this is a similar situation to how I felt before the AO 2017 final. While Fed was playing amazingly leading up to that Final, there was just no way I could bring myself to pick Fed to beat a guy at a major whom he hadn’t beaten at a major for a decade to that point. Similarly, I just don’t know if I’m willing to pick Fed to beat Novak when he hasn’t for so long. I really believed that Fed was going to win both the Wimbledon and US Open Finals in 2015 against Novak. I still believe that Fed was playing better tennis than Novak leading up to those Finals. I still believe that Fed “should” have won one of those two finals (whatever that even means). But he was so clearly mentally affected by Novak in those Finals. I’m not talking about the obvious reasons why Novak can make Fed look worse than he actually is, due to his supreme return game and defense. I’m talking about how Fed looked visibly shaken, like the moment was too big. Novak makes guys look worse, but not THAT much worse. In the US Open Final, Fed had that match on his racquet for almost the entire match. I think he had over TWENTY break points, and barely converted any of them. I don’t know how else to explain how he could play so incredibly well during 95% of the points, but then just look like a different guy in the relatively few super important points. The Novak mental block is real.
I have been burned too many times now by Fed against Novak since 2012, to the point where I’m just not willing to touch that hot stove again until I see that he can actually get it done. I felt that way against Rafa in 2017. And I feel that now against Novak. 🤷♂️
Kevin, I’m glad you posted this, because you were the only person I was thinking of calling out. I think if you honestly watch today’s match with eyes wide open there will be no doubt in your mind that Federer is still capable of playing like he was in 2015. If anything his baseline game today was better, and possibly his return game, though I don’t think he served quite as well. But today’s match should leave you in no doubt that Federer is far from past it.
Regarding the mental block, I honestly don’t think it exists anymore 2017 got rid of it, even if not against Djokovic. Federer came in to today’s match with a look of utter calm, and he kept it the entire match, including when he was getting served a bread-stick in the 2nd set. If he brings that attitude to the final, I am confident he will win it.
Well said Joe. There was much better attitude. if he brings that in the Final he has a definitive chance
I do think Fed can win Kevin. What was impressive.is that when he was in trouble he literally shook himself and forced himself to raise his game. And i think.Now that the string of losses to.Fed was in rafa’s head. So yes maybe Fed is stifled like Rafa but his capacity to suddenly lift.himself showed enormous mental strength. Surely that gives him a helluva lot of confidence.
I agree Amy, with the Fed can win part. But I dont think Fed is necessarily in Nadals head at the moment. Atleast not yet. Having won the French, Nadal was in a fair advantage and should have used it but unfortunately he didnt. While a lot of people say Nadal was in Feds head, it was also about the matchup with Nadal battering his backhand (which didnt quite happen today. )
I agree there is a good mental edge between these players from time to time but I think with Nadal, he just wont change his pattern when it matters most and unless he does, he isnt beating these two when it matters. Now that Fed has evened the match up. Nadal needs to do some homework not just with Novak but also with Fed. If he keeps hoping their level needs to drop much like Fed in the second set today, thats not going to work. He needs to come out stronger, with more belief and take more risks. Anyway thats that.
He can’t do.that if he is too nervous PK! That is the real.problem for me. Rafa has never completely recovered from.the nervous self who came into being in 2015. The old Rafa would at least have hit the winners he needed off his forehand! Whenever nervy Rafa reappears he doesn’t go for the corners! Also.what happened to his brilliant net game of last year?! It’s predominantly mental with Rafa.
Kevin, Prior to the match, I felt the same thing as to Fed not being at the same level he was in 2015 or even 2017. that he is way older now. but after this match I dont think thats true. He can bring some serious genius stuff on a tennis court. he’s still got the game and while he has aged, his game certainly doesnt look like it has.
With Novak, yes maybe a mental block. His post match interview didnt seem too confident either. he said he would try to push Novak to the brink and “hopefully” beat him. Novak has got the mental edge and he is ruthless and cold against these two for a long time ( even off the court because he wants to maintain that edge). But I believe if Fed can bring this game to the final and if things go his way, its not entirely impossible he get to his 21st. And Novak isnt being unbeatable either and certainy not in his 2011 form.
Good luck and as a Nadal fan, I would root for Fed than Novak.
PK, I don’t think it’s just a mental block that Fed has against Djoko.
Djoko could play well on grass, with his flatter shots, better court position thus hitting his shots with depth, making them more difficult to defend against. He also serves well and his ROS could be unbelievable. He moves well and defends well too, just incredible defence, unlike Rafa who camps so far behind the baseline.
Can Fed play this well in two consecutive matches? In 2015, he was amazing in the SF against Murray, but came up short against Djoko in the final. Djoko is not Rafa, whatever serves Rafa couldn’t return, Djoko maybe could!
Lucky, Agreed. Exactly what I was about to say. thats why I said just “maybe”. I dont see it as entirely a mental block.( I just read Nadal stating that he didnt feel his backhand like he did in his previous matches. Now thats not mental)
but coming back to Fed vs Djok yes Djok can return better.But Fed now has a clear game plan. He is ultra aggressive, something I have seen him use in Cincinnati time and again with Djokovic. if he is as consistent with his groundstrokes like he was today, and one set goes his way, I do see Djokovic getting frustrated and breaking a few racquets. Two consecutive matches, maybe not but I think Fed this year at Wimbledon has already surprised me. Honestly I did feel Rafa would take him out infact in 4.
PK, as I mentioned, Rafa played the wrong strategy, I’d said enough so not going to say it again.
Fed vs Djoko, you mentioned about Cincy, but Djoko won their latest encounter there. They’ve played each other several times, in fact more than Fed vs Rafa, so don’t you think Djoko too has a clear game plan to deal with Fed?
I’m sure Djoko and his team were watching this Fedal match, you think they won’t learn something from it?
Rafa camped so far behind the baseline hence his shots landed short in Fed’s service box, allowing Fed to step in to take the shot early, no wonder Rafa was losing the rallies because he had so much court to cover from corner to corner behind the baseline.
Djoko plays from close to the baseline and his shots have more penetration, so it’s not so easy to take the ball early against Djoko. Once Djoko could pin Fed to the baseline, he could then win the baseline rallying war.
Djoko also took the initiative to move to the net whenever he found it the right time to do so, during all his matches here, so if he could pin Fed back to the baseline, he may do the same too.
I have to say, Djoko always ‘deceive’ us by playing not too impressive tennis before the final, but on final day, he just could turn up and play lights out tennis; I’ll never underestimate Djoko in a final.
Lucky, I am not sure where You seem to think I am disagreeing with you :). I agree every word you said in the above post. It mirrors my thoughts actually with the differences in Nadal and Djoko
Rafa played with the wrong strategy yes. But I constantly rue the fact that its more a game style than strategy. Nadal just cannot be returning from far behind the baseline every match and suddenly change it up while facing Fed and Djoko. If I remember right, in 2013 he was returning from closer to the baseline and it worked perfectly worked for a clean sweep in the US HC. Along with the 135 mph in 2010 that would make him unbeatable in my opinion. I have no idea why someone wouldnt retain tactics that work and go back to a game style that needed that change in the first place.
As to Djoko Fed, all I am saying is Fed surprised me with how consistently his game was on and how he stayed mentally in this match. if he brings in that consistency along with that sorta mental freshness, I think he has a decent 50-50 chance. Dont you ? Whether that actually happens, I dont know. All i am saying was I now give him a slight better chance than when I thought he wouldnt beat Nadal this year.
Now Part 2 and I wanted to bring this up on here.
I did not watch the first set. From what I heard from Amy, Nadal stayed with Fed, got into a lead in the TB and lost two service points ( we all know how reliable his serve was in the match). But I stick to what I was saying. Lets face it. Federer was the better player in this match, His serving, his forehand, his backhand and his mental state held throughout the match.
I didnt feel Nadal was actually playing better even after he won the second set. I clearly saw Fed was looking forward to the 3rd set knowing he can hold serve easy and break Nadal which he did. There was very less likelihood that the pattern was to change the rest of the match. Also Fed was beating Nadal in the longer rallies even as Nadal was playing better in some.
What I feel is a clear indication of the match and result is that even in a crazy level of play in the last game, Fed still hung tough and actually won the game /match. I think thats reflective of what i feel. Even if Nadal played a couple notches better, it would have still been a close match and Fed would have still won. I was surprised how Nadal kept serving hard to Feds forehand on the deuce court while historically being too predictable with a T serve. He could have changed it up a little but I was surprised how Fed was consistently pounding his forehead return hard and deep each time and every time. His level of play as more consistent than the not to often Nadal’s genius play in this match.
Now what can Nadal do better. In my opinion, return better from closer to the baseline. hit deep, less neutral and make Fed run, hit those crazy backhand CCs like he did in the last game and use his DTLFH and ofcourse serve better. now thats a lot of changes and easier said than done. Can he do it and change it tactically for the rest of the season.Yes but will he ? thats a big question mark. I have been waiting for that for years now. I have no idea why he wont bring his 2010/2013 HC game back. He would crush Djokovic if he plays like that but he just wont.
Anyway this is a tough one. I couldnt sleep well at all. No matter how much I tell myself to accept Fed played better, this is a tough one to digest. but its done and over. Anything we talk about game style, strategy or mental toughness is just conversation at this point. lets move on.
I will be a lil happier if Fed can somehow win the final.it would suck if he plays bad having beat Nadal with his A game.
This is interesting, PK, and I agree with a lot of it. However, I’m not sure how much differently Nadal could have played. Sure, he could have played better, particularly gotten in a higher pct. of 1st serves. But he actually served quite well when he was facing BPs and he obviously has made a committment to hit better but fewer 1st serves.
The obvious change he could have made is on the return, by stepping closer to the baseline. But I’m not sure that Rafa can feel comfortable standing that close against a server like Fed. He likes to take a fairly big cut on the return to generate a lot of topspin (which he did on a lot of returns, placing them deep). Fed can stand closer because of his timing, and even then it often doesn’t work out. In fact, I would say that his returns today were the best they’ve been all tournament. before this match a lot of people were saying it had become a real weakness. And even today he shanked a fair number.
Anyway, it’s something Rafa has to feel comfortable doing, and I’m not sure he can. And, apart from today, you can hardly fault him on his ROS, which has arguably been the best in tennis this year.
Other than that, I thought Nadal tried to play aggressively. I didn’t think he was passive; I just think Fed was more successful at it today. Rafa was certainly going for his BH, hitting quite a few scorching winners and sending several more long. In general, he could try to hit more winners. But the conventional wisdom of literally everyone (including me) before today’s match was that he would win if he could be patient and lure Fed into long rallies. That didn’t happen, but I’m not sure how anyone could have expected it to happen and it’s not the kind of thing that you can make a quick or easy adjustment to.
Luckystar, I know wimbledon is too close to french open but rafa has won the channel slam twice and when he did he played a warm up grass tournament and even won one before wimbledon if I’m correct. That gave him opportunity to perfect his skills and find out what’s working and what’s not. So it’s a winning formula and he may have faced federer and lost before wimbledon and then will learn quickly and try something different in the main grand slam. This is what happened in rome final, his strategy worked against djokovic and so he implemented it in roland garros especially in the semis and finals.
As for his bad strategy this semifinal, I believe nadal can play as good as his 2010 and 2013 US open self and even better. If federer and djokovic can do it, so can he. Even though he is a different player from them, nothing is impossible.
He can get back his 2010 US open serve and apply it without injurying his shoulder. It is doable. Plus vary his return position and be the tactical genius he usually is by stepping into the court and cutting the points short and being very aggressive since long rallies and counterpunching were not working. He’s more than capable of doing that regardless of his age, since he was able to make his backhand into a lethal weapon now, he can do the rest to. One thing with rafa is that he needs time to change up and alter his game and his coach better give him that for the hard court seanson especially the US open. In the US open 2017 final that he won, he even S&V several times in it and that worked since anderson passing shots were atrocious. I’m cutting nadal some slack because he just won the french, so winning wimbledon was never going to be easy, if it was federer and djokovic would have been the GOATS of the channel slam.
Anybody that thinks that djokovic will not come prepared to counter everything that federer throws at him in a GRAND SLAM final is living in a fools paradise. I’ve seen this script too many times and the ending is ALWAYS the same with djokovic. He’s always a different beast in the final except if its wawrinka on the other side and it’s on a hard court against wawrinka. Wawrinka is a bad match up for djokovic.
Djokovic will beat federer on sunday. Federer’s serve, bigger racquet and improved backhand, better groundstrokes will be non-threatening to djokovic. He knows fed’s game, has seen it before and can counter it EASILY. His backhand is Stronger than federer’s and more dangerous, his forehand has even improved to rival anyone’s including federer. He has a mental advantage over federer, deny or overlook that at your peril. His return is the greatest in tennis history hence federer’s great serve is nothing to him. He will make it average or even less.
Nadal may be fed’s greatest rival but recently djoko has had his number more than rafa and that is not going to change on sunday. Federer will be “lucky’ to win a set as djoko may just win it in three sets. I want federer to win but that is not going to happen at all.
PK,
Since Rafa’s AO 2014 final loss, he wasn’t able to play the way he did at US HCs of 2013 anymore. I think we can forget about that Rafa of 2010/2013 USO appearing again.
I do feel it’s mental more than anything else; I thought after beating Fed at the FO, Rafa would be more or less having some confidence when facing Fed at Wimbledon, especially after his brilliant run to the SF. It turned out to be another disappointment, not only for his fans but for him too, as he realised it’s an opportunity missed and his chances of winning another Wimbledon title diminishing yet again with another year gone by, knowing that he’s no longer young at 34 next year.
He actually created a mess out of it, even though Fed’s brilliant play had a big part to do with it. Why he lost confidence in his own BH was a mystery to me. Anyway, going forward, I think he should go improve his serve, his offensive game and his ROS. He hardly varied his return positions despite not making any inroad into Fed’s service games in set three and four. It reminded me of that Müller match two years ago; not making adjustment to his return positions and ended up losing in the end.
He really has to learn to play a grass court game on grass and a HC game on HC. He’s playing a clay court game on grass in this SF! His game is very much different from both Fed’s and Djoko’s. Djoko and Fed play a game that suits all surfaces, even on the clay surfaces where they could beat most players except a few.
I do hope he has success in his newly acquired offensive game, that may help him to win on grass and HCs; it’s just that he hasn’t mastered that yet, hence he’s hesitant once seeing his great rivals across the net on non clay surfaces. He was very aggressive against Djoko in the Rome final and won that match; the test is on non clay surfaces vs those two guys.
I for one, thought Rafa would play his aggressive game like he did in his previous few rounds. I mean, since his one two punch tennis together with his serve were working well, why revert back to rallying on grass?
Rafa was pretty much defending, and defending from way behind the baseline, not going to work on grass. I do feel he’s influenced by Toni, whom said after Rafa’s Shanghai loss to Fed in 2017, that Rafa should extend the point instead of playing to Fed’s tempo. It didn’t work here on grass as it’s harder to defend because of the low bouncing surfaces.
Rallying should be short ones and done close to the baseline; Rafa had to run so much to cover so much ground behind the baseline when he was moved by Fed from corner to corner. His DTL shots were absent hence he couldn’t change directions and perhaps change the dynamics of the rally exchanges.
A heartfelt congratulation to all Fedfans! May your guy do well in the final! It won’t be easy for sure. But anything can happen☺
And a remarkable novum: The Tignor-curse turned out to be a non-issue. He got both predictions right😀
Again: congrats! I’m at a string conference atm and can’t really follow the discussions. But it has nothing whatsoever to do with racket technology 😏
So, this is my take. Fed or sure has improved his BH, he just opens up the court if Rafa’s CC FH is short. Also Rafa’s BH CC to Fed’s FH CC is a rally whhere Fed just starts cutting the angles and ultimately Rafa’s BH CC falters , mostly he tries to hit too hard and goes long. These kind of exchanges are where Djoker and Fed bombard Rafa’s BH and they win on HC and grass.
I think overall Rafa has improved serve a lot but Fed and Djoker have improved their return games a lot, they go very deep and fast at Rafa’s BH fast and just get a head start in rally. Rafa has lost a bit of speed and he also can’t run a lot. Rafa needs to improve his ROS , also add a bit more bit. I dont think Rafa forced Fed too much on his second serve . Fed won 62% second serve points and Rafa less than 50%. There was the match lost.
The problem with Rafa is that he’s still playing a clay court game on grass. His shots lacked depth and penetration thus Fed could just easily feast on them. If it’s on clay, I doubt Fed could get back all those balls.
I suspect Rafa was remembering what Toni said, when he lost to Fed at Shanghai, that Rafa should extend the points and not played the points quickly to Fed’s pace. Perhaps Rafa was thinking about that hence he ended up going into Long rallies with Fed on grass, instead of playing the one two punch tennis that he played so well this tournament.
Against the others, he’s the aggressor; against Fed, he reverted to a counterpuncher; not going to work on grass when he’s 33 now; not quick enough to counterpunch on grass effectively.
Rafa has beaten Fed 1 out of 4 on grass that too in a tight five setter. So, lets not say that Fed cant beat Rafa on non clay surfaces. At 37 Fed is able to get the better of Rafa on grass. Surely shows Fed is the better player on grass .
If this Rafa plays Djoker on grass, it will be a 3 set demolition handed to Rafa . Djoker will just pummel that BH.
So.how does Rafa pick.himself up and recover for the hard court season? Because a loss of that kind where he was frozen at times mentally.is going to.be very hard to recover from.
He absolutely.must fix the problem with serve. If you are under pressure on serve constantly it affects your whole game.
Top 3 are very strong. They dont get down mentally. Terrific season for top 3 so far. Rafa’s serve is good, he needs to fix his BH and ROS.
Rafa’s bh has been brilliant in Rome and Rg and earlier this tourney. Yet he hardly went for winners with it going cross court when He had plenty of chances. He was just so timid!
His BH needs more time which he gets on clay.
Yes timid is the word. When you’re afraid to lose, you then end up losing! So, why be so timid? In fact I do feel for a long time now, that Rafa is timid. When he faces someone who has beaten him before, he tends to get nervous and then plays timid tennis.
The Rafa who’s so brave and played like there’s nothing to lose (the one back in the days during mid to late 2000s) has long gone. After experiencing all the injuries and sufferings, the current timid Rafa has emerged. He may have the mental fortitude to make his injury comebacks, but when out there on the court, he’ll revert back to his defensive self once he sees his nemesis or an old time rival across the net.
He needs help, psychological help.
Totally agree lucky! The old Rafa would at least have hurt Fed with his forehand going for the corners and making him think twice. Rafa empowered Fed who.could intuit that he wasn’t playing with his old warrior self and mentality! That partly allowed him to.play with such freedom.
If this was a close match, I would see that problem. the difference in levels were glaring. If you lose a close match like he did in the last semi thats tough but I see Nadal coming out of this easier. Like I said earlier, Rafa seemed to have some fear with his backhand today ( weird after he hit some crazy ones end of match).
I think Nadal knows exactly Fed was just way beter today. Its not about him recovering from this match mentally. Its about him changing his patterns.We all know his DTLFH and now with his improved CCBH he must be fearsome. He didnt bring either into this match. Simple as that.
So are you upset PK? How do you see the hard court season for Rafa? I wish they would get a serve coach!!
I am ok Amy. Thanks. Hope you are too. I am a lil frustrated Nadal has the game and he just wont bring it. This is not a match he got unlucky like he did last year with Novak. So that sorta calms be down. Also we have got to accept Fed at this age playing so brilliantly. Its great to see these guys play the way they do at this age. Fed is still playing his best way past expiry date 🙂
Rafa is more than capable of having a good HC season. I think he takes a break like usual, regroups and approaches the rest of the season much like he does each year. I dont know if I agree with Lucky completely he needs psychological help. I dont see it that worse. Its not entirely nerves. To me, its just purely bad choices. He is way older and well knows he has got to be aggressive. There were parts he tried to play with intensity but his shots lacked the bite.
To your question .Is he capable of winning the US. Aboslutely ( I was dreaming maybe he wins the US and goes for a Rafa slam at the Aus 🙂 ). but it clearly depends on how much willing is he step out of his regular patterns, more so in the matches against Fed or Novak. Can happen. Will it? Only time would tell….
Oh and I also think Rafa is much like Fed too. His game hasnt necessarily aged. He is still playing beautiful tennis and I see him around playing his best for a couple more years. So lets hope he has a good HC season. How can we not wish he wins the US 🙂
Thanks PK. I am getting very tired now so not up to writing much. Just wanted to say how very very nice it has been talking with you during wimby and RG and how glad I am you joined Tenngrand. I look forward to sharing Rafa’s USO win with you!!☺☺
Same here Amy. Thanks to you and everyone else too on here. I should have let you be my lucky mascot tonite and not watch the match but didnt eant to miss yhis matchup.
I shud have slept two hours ago. Am not able to 😊. Nite all
Rafa said in his presser, that Fed returned well but he himself didn’t. His own BH not hitting well hence couldn’t open up the court. He also said he played a bit better late in the fourth set but that’s too late to turn things around.
I agreed, that he decided to move inside the court only when he’s about to lose. I say, he’s timid, not gutsy enough to take risk when things were not working for him; he still stick to the same game plan until he’s about to lose, then he had no choice but to turn aggressive. I’ve seen this same old story so many times, can’t help but come to this conclusion, that Rafa is in fact timid.
Maybe he lacks confidence facing either Fed or Djoko on non clay surfaces; against others, when he’s confident enough, he could change his game plan mid match when things weren’t working for him. He didn’t seem able to do that against Fed here, until back against the wall. I always asked the same question – since he could play that way, why waited till back against the wall, when it’s too late to turn things around? Why not played that way earlier on?
PK, why Rafa didn’t bring them, that’s the question! It’s a slam SF, not any other match, so why he’s not bringing his weapons to the match??
It wasn’t some technical issues, more tactical and psychological issues imo, something he and his team have to address and resolve, if not we may have to face such disappointment again and again.
Rafans-
I just You to know that I have not even slightly waivered from my declaration from earlier in the season that I believe Rafa will win Wimbledon again. I’ve seen a Rafa at Wimbledon the last two years who is prepared to win Wimbledon again. It just needs to all come together. And it will. And I will be on here celebrating with you when he does! ❤️
Thanks Kevin but I fear that last year was the year that Rafa should.have won. That was why we were all so upset about the roof. He seems to have gone backwards again!
Thanks for being such a great contributor to this site ☺though. For your sake I.hope Fed wins. See above for my reasoning as to why he can!
The reason I am upset about this loss is I fear that Rafa ‘s mental.problems of old keep reappearing. I don’t think.his problem is technical just that he suddenly can’t execute under pressure.
Kevin, I doubt Rafa is going to win Wimbledon again. I feel he has missed the boat, this and last year. He’ll be 34 next year, who knows how his knees are going to cope?
He’s playing well this year, and imo, had he played more aggressively instead of playing clay court baseline tennis, perhaps he could still win this match. He had his chances with some BPs; and he could serve a bit better the way he did the whole tournament; he just didn’t serve well enough; couldn’t serve that many aces when he could serve 11 aces in some matches. He had too much respect for Fed’s ROS, not serving with enough pace imo and so the serve kept coming back with interest.
He feared both Fed and Djoko when playing on non clay surfaces, for he didn’t have enough confidence in his own game, that it could match up with theirs.
It’s a pity, for I do feel that his aggressive game is good enough to deal with both Fed and Djoko. It’s just too bad that having played his aggressive game so well all tournament to arrive at the SF, once he saw Fed across the net, he reverted back to his defensive self and played counterpunching baseline tennis.
Lucky,listen to his press conference talk. The reasons that acoording to you led to Rafa being defeated were partially caused by Fed’s game. Rafa himself says it clearly.
I think when our favourite player loses a match, too easy we assume he just played badly. But that’s partly because of their opponent. They have their chemistry on the court. The truth is Rafa had Nick as a strong opponent until the SF. The other one were just scary on paper. They didn’t quite played to our expectations. My idea is that Rafa needs more practice on grass against quaility opponents before dreaming big. And here opens another old subject about ATP scheduling etc
I think last year Rafa deserved to win the title more than Djoko. And that kind of loss in the SF is much more painful than today’s. He is fine. I hope he destroys Djoko on HC this year.
Eugene, I’d already listened to that and had posted something about it in one of my posts above.
I repeat that here, Rafa said Fed returned better than him, and he wasn’t hitting his BH well today so unable to open up the court. He only played a bit better when back against the wall, about to lose the match, and he said that was too late.
I also mentioned in one of my earlier posts, that perhaps Rafa should play a warm up event on grass, because that would give him match play, actual competition. He skipping warm up events might allow him to reach the SF in these two years, but both times he missed the final leap into the final, maybe by competing more on grass, it would help him hone his skills on grass and thus gives him the extra confidence to bring his best where it matters?
Kevin,
I love your optimism! Thank you! I am watching my recording of the match now. I only saw the first set and then I had to go out. It’s interesting how Fed lost the plot in the second set. Now I am watching the third set. So I can see for myself what happened.
But some here have forgotten that Rafa just won his 12th title at RG. Something that has never been done in this sport. As I said yesterday, a few months ago things were looking pretty bleak for Rafa. We know that Rafa went to a very dark place after the knee injury. He did not look good when the clay season started. So maybe a little perspective is in order.
Let’s not deceive ourselves, Djokovic will destroy federer in the final as usual. Such a pity as I would have loved for federer or nadal to win wimbledon but lets not kid ourselves, this is 2015 and 2016 wimbledon final all over again. Federer has a mental block against djokovic and when was the last time Djokovic lost a grand slam final. I’ll wait.
I disagree with some people here about nadal. Nadal is capable of winning non-clay slams, he won US open in 2017 so lets not get carried away with sadness. He has beaten djokovic and federer in non-clay slams before, US open-djokovic (2013) and australian open federer (2014). He is not timid. Cut the guy some slack, he just won the french open 3 weeks ago. Last year he should have won that wimbledon semifinal but for the roof and his serve.
All he needs to do is fix his serve or upgrade it. Would love for federer to win on sunday but djokovic is just too dangerous in a final. Not holding my breath.
I hope serena brings it tomorrow but I’m afraid Halep will beat her. But anything can happen in the wta.
Happy,
Bravo for a great post! Thanks so much! I also mentioned Rafa winning RG and setting a historic record. I think we should cut Rafa some slack. I talked about how devastating it was to see last year’s loss in the semifinals at Wimbledon. That one really hurt. So close.
Watching the third set now, Fed made the shots when he needed them and Rafa was making some uncharacteristic errors.
Thanks for putting it all in perspective!
Joe, PK, and others:
I said that I think Fed can do it. People seem to think that I just don’t think Fed can beat Novak. That’s just factually incorrect- Fed has beaten post-2010 Novak at Wimbledon before! I’m just simply not willing to count on it when I was burned so badly in 2015. Joe, I understand your argument about thinking that Fed is over the metal block. But we really can’t know that because they haven’t played at a major since 2016. They have, however, played a couple times at non-majors, where Fed lost both times. That only makes me less convinced he’s over it! Again, my feelings have absolutely nothing to do with tennis. It is strictly about the fact that Fed has so blatantly been cowed by Novak in nearly every big match they have played since Fed beat him en route to the Wimbledon title in 2012. Maybe the one exception could be the 2015 Cincinnati Final. Novak was still going for the “Golden Masters” at that time, so there was at least some sort of stakes rising on that match. But the majors are a different animal. I guess I just don’t see how Fed playing good tennis right now addresses the reasons Novak has had his number. 🤷♂️ Fed was playing maybe the best tennis I’ve EVER seen him play at Wimbledon and US Open in 2015, but it meant absolutely nothing because of who was standing in the other side of the net. We have seen how Novak has played at the major in the last year. The one loss he had, at RG to Thiem, was so affected by the weather that I don’t really factor that loss into what I expect from him on Sunday.
I’ll say for the millionth time- I believe that Roger Federer can beat Novak Djokovic in the 2019 Wimbledon Final. If Fed wins, I won’t be shocked, because I KNOW he can win! I shouldn’t have to repeat this again haha. I am just simply not picking him to win, and you cannot convince me that that is somehow a bad pick. For some reason it always feels like some people can not grasp the concept of believing someone can win a match, while picking the other player as the favorite. Am I just wrong here? Is this not a logical thing? Also, people sometimes seem to think that when I pick one player as the favorite, that that somehow means that I think picking the other player is a bad pick… People who are picking Fed to win on Sunday- your pick is totally acceptable! He can definitely win! I just happen to be giving Novak the edge for various reasons. Maybe I take history into account more than most people? In this case, I just believe that history swings so heavily to Novak’s favor, whether it’s head-to-Head related or age-related or whatever, that it outweighs the reasons why Fed can win the match.
I also am not ashamed to admit that I really, really, really want Fed to win on Sunday! I just refuse to let the fact that I love Fed, and do NOT love Novak, get in the way of my objectivity. Believe me- I really would love to give Fed the edge in this one. I really would. But when I weigh all the factors, I just see Novak as the slight favorite. Benny! Help me out here haha! I’m not crazy for thinking this way, right??
Kevin, I have doubts that Fed could produce something like today, in consecutive matches. Djoko is no Rafa on grass, he has a better game on grass.
He’s playing from close to the baseline, hitting with depth from both wings and could change directions so well. He returns so well so he will get into Fed’s service games more than Rafa could do. He also serves well when he needs to, unlike Rafa who couldn’t when under pressure.
It’s not impossible that Fed would beat Djoko, but it’s a tough ask.
Good points Happy.
Djoko can handle Fed’s serves and long rallies; so effectively what he won against Rafa today would not work against Djoko. I actually think that these days, Djoko is a bad match up for Fed, on any surface, maybe except on very quick courts.
Agree with you, Kevin. Would prefer to see Fed win the final, but….I have Doubts. Otoh, since I like Fed but don’t love him…I really don’t feel strongly about the final. Sad that Rafa lost, of course, but I wasn’t all that enthusiastic about him going up against the Djoker either. I worry about Rafa’s health. Not my “job” as a fan but there it is. Sigh.
If rafa was capable of winning US open in 2017, he’s capable of winning wimbledon and any other slam, period.
Federer is not beating djokovic on sunday, I’m sorry. I dont see that happening at all because there’s nothing about federer’s game that i can see that will trouble djokovic. If federer plays the way he played today against djokovic, he’ll lose. Long rallies is djokovic’s bread and butter and djokovic is no nadal and federer’s serve is inconsequential to djokovic bc djokovic’s return is unbelievable so that neutralises federer’s serve and the long rallies djokovic will win comprehensively.
The next gen is a disgrace am sorry to say. I’m very proud of the big three and may they play for more years bc their tennis when they are on is scintillating.
Happy, Wimbledon is too close to the FO, making the transition from clay to grass very challenging. Rafa normally played the final Sunday at the FO, leaving him not much time to train and get used to playing on grass.
The USO is about one and a half months away from Wimbledon so players have time to adjust after playing a few Masters or smaller events.
Very tired now so going to bed! A big thanks to all tenngranders for being such great company. Love you all! See you tomorrow for more in depth analysis!
Vamos Rafa Fed and Nole # 3 goats!
NNY, well said. Couldn’t agree more. A little perspective is truly needed here.
Nadal doesnt need to prove anything to anybody on any surface. Two US opens and Two wimbledons and 1 australian open is nothing to sniff at. That is a monumental achievement and indicative of an all court genius that can win on any surface at any time including this year.
I am very disappointed he lost but such is life. Unfortunately the sunday final is going to be a damp squid as federer is going to be as abysmal as nadal was today on sunday regardless of his serve and backhand. djokovic is on another level sorry. Infact nadal of last year wimbledon would have had a better chance on sunday than federer. I like federer and wish for him to win on sunday but I dont see that happening. The most he can do is win a set if djokovic goes walkabout but that’s it I’m afraid. Djoko in 4 on sunday.
Happy,
It’s 3 USO’s! Just to be clear. To go along with 2 Wimbledon’s and one AO. Rafa is an all surface player!
Also Rafa has earned his place among the greatest to play this sport. It is NOT just Novak and Fed! Neither of them has won 12 titles at one slam. I do not believe in the GOAT argument. I believe that there is a singular list of the greatest players ever to play in this sport. I have my own personal list – Rod Laver, Bjorn Borg, Pete Sampras, Federer, Rafa and Novak. Rafa has nothing left to prove!
Now that I have seen the whole match, Ivan say that Rafa seemed out of sorts at times, serving not good enough, forehand DTL not firing. I think JMac summed it up very well. He said that he thought Rafa was tentative, that he wasn’t moving up to hit volleys and being aggressive. Then he said – Rafa let Fed take the play away from him. Bingo! That resonated with me. I do think Fed’s game and execution was the reason why Rafa did was not able to play his game. That is the goal – to impose your game on the opponent andcfdke him out of his comfort zone. It was only in the last few games of the fourth set that Rafa seemed to get fired up and started to play like himself. But by then it was too little, too late. I did wonder what night have been had Rafa made that shot at 5-4 with Fed serving firctge mstch when he had break point. He missed it and bent over and put his face in his hands. What if he had gotten it to 5-5? We will never know.
Also, Fed did have his own blip in that second set. This was not like this year’s AO where Rafa was completely destroyed by Novak. But Fed did regroup well in the third set.
The bottom line is that Rafa did not take a step back! Let’s remember that he played Kyrgios in the second round. What if he lost that match? But he won playing some brilliant tennis! He got to the semis and I have enjoyed every minute of it. I am very disappointed that he lost. But I can handle this one. I always think of how Borg walked away from tennis at the age of 26. Now that is something to be sad about! Rafa has stayed in the game through too many injuries. He is still playing! Thank God!
Rafa does NOT need a psychologist. He lost to a great champion on his best surface. He was outplayed. He does not need to regroup. This is not a tragedy!
Rafa will move on and have more great victories. But let’s remember that he won his 12th RG! If he doesn’t win the channel slam again, so be it. He’s done it twice. Both did it three times in consecutive years. Each tennis great has his own unique achievements. I choose to celebrate what Rafa has done s d how he has been gutsy enough to keep playing through all the trials and tribulations. He has give me some great memories this week. I would have loved to see him in another Wimbledon final. But I have to be grateful for the wins he had. It was a wonderful rude!
Vamos Rafa always and forever!
So many typos in my previous post! Autocorrect garbled some of what I said. Borg won the channel slam three years in a row, not Both!
A wonderful RIDE!
First of all – massive congrats to federer and his fans. I am eating crow as i type this because i did not think Fed will win this, let alone so handily. I thought the AO 2017 was a fluke when Rafa himself was returning from injury. But clearly that is not the case. It is incredible that Roger has made the rivalry closer towards the end of his career. If Roger pulls the final off, it has to be the GSOAT, the greatest slam of all time considering his age and that he beat two other goats.
As far as Rafa is concerned, he has won one slam and stopped by goats in the other two. He looked the best he has looked in wimby in years. He just came up against an opponent in his den much like at the australian open this year. He has done the same to his fellow goats at Paris.
Vamos Rafa- you have done us proud🤙🏻
Nadal needs to play warm up tournaments before wimbledon. The formula of skipping everthing till wimbledon doesnt work anymore, it never worked for nadal. Federer won a grass warm up and that did wonders for him today and he was ready for strong competition on grass. djokovic is just different. He can play well regardless of warm up tournaments as he has won wimbledon without any warm up. Rafa has never so his coach should change that. It did wonders for nadal in the french bc all those warm up clay tournaments especially rome prepared him for the battle in the french open which he passed comprehensively. He was ready for thiem, djokovic, federer, and everybody else.
Warm ups are the way forward for him. It has always worked for him in the past so time to implement it again.
I want to point something else out in regards to Novak. Did y’all see how much Novak fed off of the crowd overwhelmingly going against him today? When he got broken, he was lifting his arms to the crowd, like “C’mon! Keep cheering against me! I love it!” And boy did it fuel him… And if it was like that today, what’s it gonna be like on Sunday? A whole other level. He still has a serious chip on his shoulder for not being as loved as Fedal. And it is a fact that he has ALWAYS convincingly beaten Federer when that crowd is against him that much. I think it’s quite possible that he makes a concerted effort to put a stamp on his ownership over Fed and Rafa at the majors over the last 5 to 6 years. If he wins on Sunday, he will have not lost to Fed, Rafa, or Murray even once at a slam since 2014. Yes, he had his slump. But he surely believes that was nothing but an injury-related fluke, and that he has been the best player of the last half-decade. I just feel like we have seen this movie over and over and over and over again. And for 5 years now, if Novak was fully healthy and wasn’t facing Stan Wawrinka, he just hasn’t really lost at the majors. And that scares me. This guy has won 3 of the last 5 Wimbledon titles. Part of the reason that Fed CAN win is that he has also won Wimbledon recently. But I just don’t see how anyone can be really confident that Fed can win THIS match. I understand if you have a hunch, or you just love him so much that you can’t pick against him, but we have seen this scenario too many times for me to ignore what the outcome has been for so long now.
I want nothing more than for Fed to get it done. He’s managed to beat Rafa at majors in the last 2 1/2 years as many times as he did in the previous decade before that. Maybe it’s time for Fed to break the cycle against Novak? I certainly hope so. But I don’t know why I should count on it…
Yes that is how Nole often deals with the whole popularity of Fedal at these Championships, takes the sour lemons he gets from the crowd and media and makes lemonade. One of the many things I love about Novak Djokovic!
I think it eventually wears him down and I believe it was partially what led to his long slump after winning his Grand Slam.
Absolutely, Hawk. Of course it would wear anyone down. But he is willing to put himself in those uncomfortable places and fight back. Maybe he is giving up on getting the respect and love from the crowds and media and just pushing through being the villain. It hurts me and makes me sad to see it. But at the same time it makes me love him more. I’m so proud of him. 💪
Your right RC. Hope he can do it again tomorrow.
I just hope that both players can bring their A game. It has the potential to be a great match.
Happy for Halep today but would have also loved to see Serena win after giving birth and tie homophobe Court.
Kevin, my beef with you lately is that you seem eager to write Fed’s obit as an old man, disregarding his actual results. Sure, you didnt’ outright say that Fed couldn’t beat Nadal, but you said you would be close to shocked if he did. To my mind, yours’ and many people’s predictions totally reminded me of right before AO 2017. Then I could understand it, because Fed really did have a mental block and it had been so long since he had beaten Rafa in a major. The failures of 2014-15 against Nole also loomed large. But he got over that hump at that tournament, and the two further slams he won only relaxed him more. If he loses the final again to Novak, it will not be because of a mental weakness; it will be because Djokovic outplays him, which is obviously possible.
If you’ve watched the SF, I’d like to hear your current view of Fed’s baseline game, and if you still think it is as weak as you’ve lately suggested.