Wimbledon final picks: Serena Williams vs. Simona Halep

It all comes down to Serena Williams and Simona Halep for the 2019 Wimbledon women’s singles title on Saturday. Serena is bidding for her 24th Grand Slam title and eighth at the All-England Club; Halep eyes her second slam triumph (first at Wimbledon).

(7) Simona Halep vs. (11) Serena Williams

With a chance to tie Margaret Court at an all-time record 24 Grand Slam singles titles, Serena will be supremely motivated to get the job done on Saturday. Whereas many players fold when they put a lot of pressure on themselves, the American consistently rises to the occasion. Just look at her record in slam finals: it is 23-8. She is 7-3 in Wimbledon finals, and last year’s runner-up finish to Angelique Kerber can be attributed in part to the fact that Serena was on the comeback trail from childbirth.

Finally back to her best self, the world No. 10 (who would be ranked higher if she played more tournaments) is looking primed to lift her first major trophy since the 2017 Australian Open. She has been ruthless so far at the All-England Club, surrendering just two total sets—one in an extremely high-quality quarterfinal against countrywoman Alison Riske. In Serena’s four straight-set wins, she did not get pushed to a single tiebreaker.

Both finalists are coming off impressive semifinal showings; Serena sauntered past Barbora Strycova 6-1, 6-2, while Halep rolled over Elina Svitolina 6-1, 6-3. The 27-year-old Romanian is through to her first final at the AELTC, ending a drought of four majors without getting past the quarterfinals since she won her first and only slam at the 2017 French Open. Halep is 1-3 lifetime in GS finals.

Far worse is the world No. 7’s record in this head-to-head series, which she trails 9-1–including 0-1 at Wimbledon and 0-1 this season. Halep has lost four matches in a row to her nemesis since her lone success in 2014.

Pick: Serena to win (-190)

Other picks

Serena to win in two sets (+125) – Halep is capable of making this competitive and even winning it, but she would need some help from Serena. The discrepancy in firepower means Serena will completely dictate the outcome of this contest, and her current form suggests that she will make no mistake. Five of the 37-year-old’s eight victories over Halep have come in straight sets, including three in which she has lost no more than four total games.

Halep under 1.5 aces (-135) – Halep fired three aces past first-round opponent Aliaksandra Sasnovich. Since then she has hit two aces in only one match and exactly one in her four other matches. Serena is moving better than she has in a while right now, which will help her combat anything Halep throws in her direction.

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