Wimbledon SF preview and prediction: Federer vs. Nadal

First on clay. Now on grass.

Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal will be facing each other in a second straight Grand Slam semifinal–a relative streak by this rivalry’s recent standards–when they meet again at Wimbledon on Friday afternoon.

Nadal leads the head-to-head series 24-15, but Federer holds a 13-10 edge on surfaces other than clay. The Swiss has won two of their three previous grass-court encounters, all of which have come in Wimbledon finals. He prevailed 6-0, 7-6(5), 6-7(2), 6-3 in 2006 and 7-6(7), 4-6, 7-6(3), 2-6, 6-2 in 2007 before Nadal triumphed 6-4, 6-4, 6-7(5), 6-7(8), 9-7 in perhaps the greatest match ever played in 2008.

“(I’m) excited to be back on this court against him after 11 years,” said the Spaniard. “(It) means a lot for me and probably for him, too. (I’m), excited about this match, excited about this opportunity to be again against him.”

Following those three consecutive showdowns from 2006 through 2008, the two all-time greats suddenly went 10 years without colliding a single time at the All-England Club. In fact, they did not square off at any slam in between the 2014 and 2017 Australian Opens or at any slam in between the 2017 Australian Open and 2019 French Open. Nadal predictably dominated 6-3, 6-4, 6-2 in the Roland Garros semis en route to his 18th major title and now he and Federer are going at it again just one month later.

It is Federer’s turn to have proverbial home-court advantage this time around. The 37-year-old has won eight of his 20 major titles at the All-England Club and he has been to the final on three other occasions. Federer has improved his lifetime Wimbledon record to 100-12 following victories this fortnight over Lloyd Harris (four sets), Jay Clarke, Lucas Pouille, Matteo Berrettini, and Kei Nishikori (four sets).

Nadal is certainly no slouch in London, with two titles and three runner-up performances. The world No. 2 is 5-1 in Wimbledon semifinals, having lost only to Novak Djokovic 6-4, 3-6, 7-6(9), 3-6, 10-8 last summer in a contest that lasted two days because of the preceding Kevin Anderson vs. John Isner match followed by eventual darkness. Nadal finds himself back in the semis thanks to defeats of Yuichi Sugita, Nick Kyrgios (four sets), Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Joao Sousa, and Sam Querrey.

“It’s going to be tough,” Federer assured. “Rafa really can hurt anybody on any surface. I mean, he’s that good. He’s not just a clay-court specialist, we know…. I feel like conditions were slightly different (at the French Open),” he continued when asked if any past matches against Nadal would have any impact on Friday’s outcome. “It was so windy; it was just insane. I haven’t heard it was going to be the same, so I hope not, even though that would be funny again.”

Actually, conditions should be just about perfect–good news for both players but especially music to Nadal’s ears since the roof will be open, which was not the case when he fell to Djokovic in 2018.

Federer also noted that current form would have more to with the upcoming result than head-to-head history. Neither factor, however, favors the No. 2 seed. Although he is without question playing stellar tennis, Nadal has been ruthless throughout the event and has posted more convincing wins over tougher grass-court opposition. Although grass obviously levels the playing field, it should not completely tip the scales away from another Nadal victory.

Pick: Nadal in 4

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34 Comments on Wimbledon SF preview and prediction: Federer vs. Nadal

  1. I really think that the current arrangement on gras doesn’t work well for Rafa, that he can go deep but can’t reach the final time and again.

    Rafa perhaps needs to play competitive matches in warm up tournaments to get match ready for Wimbledon. Also, he has to continue to serve well and plays aggressive tennis from now on until it becomes a natural part of his game. He can’t counterpunch and hopes to win on grass, now that he’s 30+.

    Rafa has forgotten how to play aggressive tennis, only when back against the wall then he moves up to the net. He’s not going to win this match. Fed will serve for the match.

  2. That was one of Fed’s best matches, ever. He came out and played with exactly the right attitude, the entire match. Simply brilliant. Condolences to Rafa’s fans, and all respect in the world to Nadal. He played very well but just lost to the better guy on the day. A great match and a thrill to watch.

  3. Congrats to Fed, he plays very well to win. Rafa has no answer! Rafa, go home and think what went wrong in the match! You let the third set slipped away so quickly it’s unforgivable!

    Also, the serve is in such a mess! I think Rafa needs more matches on grass so that he’s not reverting to playing clay court tennis on grass! Very disappointed; Rafa is not young anymore, he’s not going to win at Wimbledon again, I’m afraid.

  4. Unbelievable game from an almost 38 to man. Congrats Roger, deserve the victory today.

    A respectable loss from Rafa.
    Only difference by 3 games loss, very competitive indeed.

    Still 24 16.

      • Congrats to Benny, Kevin, Joe, Al, Fedexal, Freddy and anyone else I.have left out. I am genuinely happy for Fed and for you all.

        • Thanks, Amy, and others. We’re very lucky to see these two play in consecutive slams. And I thought the quality in both was extremely high, though RG has to be relative to the conditions.

        • I am sorta new here and dont know much of the Fed fans on here. But damn your guy was just great this match. At 38 I guess anyone has got to have nothing but respect. I just hope Nadal finishes close to him in GS and maybe steal a Tour Final once. Congratulations to all Fed fans too. Hopefully he brings this in the final too.

  5. So a third channel slam is really that difficult to achieve; take a bow, Mr Bjorn Borg! As great as Djoko is, he still couldn’t win the channel slam. For Rafa, the chance to win B2B FO/Wimbledon perhaps has passed him by; if only he wasn’t injured in 2009 and missed Wimbledon….

  6. Lucky, I have seen you defend Rafa a lot. but I think he still needs to get more free points on serve, hold serve a lil easier and also hit corners than neutral shots. I know Fed was aggressive but still I feel Nadal hit a few more neutral than he should have in key points.

    But I also think Nadal wasnt exactly serving too bad as much as Feds returns were on point. His forehand shots were consistently deep and even his groundstrokes were great whole match ( apart from the second set blip).

    Its not grass. I think this match would have turned out exactly the same on a hard court ( maybe more so on a fast HC). For some reason I thought Nadals forehand didnt have the bite it normally has. A lot of the forehands were.. hmm less intense ?

    • PK, I agree that Fed’s return was one of the keys in this match. However, Nadal didn’t serve as well as I expected him to overall, though I thought he generally served great when he was facing break points.

      The one thing I did not foresee, however, is that Federer would win most of the long rallies. His strategy surprised me in general. I thought he would come to net more and serve and volley more. But he was really the stronger player from the baseline.

      • I agree. it was surprising with the long rallies. But Fed was just stronger tactically. He was way aggressive. I hate it when Nadal hits neutral central shots.

        But also Feds backhand was way better. I think he used it smart and hit carefully knowing Nadal wasnt being too offensive anyway. Thats where I am pissed. To all the Feds safe backhands I didnt see Nadal begin to dictate.

        Honestly early 3rd set I knew Fed was the better player. and in one way I am calmer knowing Nadal lost to Fed instead of Djokovic. Nadal maybe woudl have stayed better with Djokovic but he sure wasnt going to win playing defence. Sigh..

    • PK, to me Rafa had all those misses because of how Fed played, putting pressure on Rafa.

      I really feel that Rafa played with the wrong strategy; he’s counterpunching instead of playing a more aggressive game. You could see that the whole match, Rafa was playing clay court tennis, I mean he’s playing from the baseline all the time, and playing from so far back.

      He’s unwilling to take risk, relying on his serve and his groundstrokes, rather than trying to move forward or move to the net during his own service game. Once Rafa was playing from so far back, his shots tend to be short thus allowing Fed to step in to control the points. Fed was winning so many of the Long rallies, because Rafa was basically defending from way behind the baseline! He’s not that fast anymore thus had problem covering the court from one corner to the next. Furthermore, it’s on grass so he would have lesser time to get to the ball or to defend. Fed just took advantage of that by moving Rafa around!

      Fed had to serve very well and he did, still Rafa had his chances to break serves but he blown all those chances away. Rafa’s return position at the deuce court was a problem imo.

      Fed played well to win, he’s the better grass court player and deserved the win today; Rafa didn’t.

      • Lucky, the last game was a phenomenal one from Nadal. I was about to write I did not see that coming. He did have a half chance to come back into the match. Ok Fed did play a bad smash but Nadal was on fire. My problem with him is that he needs to play that way for a good part of the match not just when he is down and almost out.

        What frustrates me is that he is capable of playing stronger but he just wont. Its a small change he has to make if he wants to win while he has time. The whole fight for GS tally with these three is insane. I just want Nadal to finish strong enough.

        • If Rafa can’t overcome his nervy self, then I think he can only win on clay. I’m sorry to say that, but with Fed and Djoko around, and both make him nervy seeing them across the net, he’s not going to win non clay slams.

          To win Wimbledon again perhaps is but a dream; just move on to try to win the AO or USO instead, in addition to the FO. His coaches Moya and Roig talked about how good Rafa’s game is at the moment, but if the player himself couldn’t play at that level when it matters, it’s still pointless talking about it.

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