Wimbledon QF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Del Potro

Rafael Nadal and Juan Martin Del Potro will be squaring off for the 15th time in their careers and in a second consecutive Grand Slam when they meet again in the Wimbledon quarterfinals on Wednesday.

Nadal is leading the head-to-head series 10-5 after dominating Del Potro 6-4, 6-1, 6-2 in the French Open semifinals. The Spaniard is 6-2 in their last eight encounters and 2-0 in their last two, having also prevailed 4-6, 6-0, 6-3, 6-2 in the 2017 U.S. Open semis. They previously collided at Wimbledon in 2011, when Nadal got the job done 7-6(6), 3-6, 7-6(4), 6-4 on the second Monday.

This marks the second consecutive occasion on which Del Potro is facing Nadal with no days of rest after winning a delayed match. It happened at Roland Garros due to rain, as the Argentine eventually outlasted Marin Cilic in a fourth-round affair. Del Potro’s match against Simon was the only fourth-rounder that did not finish on Monday, as play was suspended due to darkness with the world No. 4 leading two sets to one. He returned on Tuesday to battle back from a break down in the fourth and win 7-6(1), 7-6(5), 5-7, 7-6(5).

Del Potro preceded that result with more straightforward victories over Peter Gojowyczk, Feliciano Lopez, and Benoit Paire. The 2009 U.S. Open champion is now 32-7 for the year and fourth in the race to London–less than 1,000 points out of second.

Nadal had struggled at Wimbledon over the past five seasons, but he has been armed with good health ever since skipping the February and March hard-court swing. Following continued dominance on clay, the world No. 1 now finds himself in his first quarterfinal at the All-England Club since 2011. Nadal has advanced so far without dropping a set while disposing of Dudi Sela, Mikhail Kukushkin, Alex De Minaur, and Jiri Vesely.

“Of course it’s an important result for me,” the second seed assured. “But when I came here, I came here thinking that I could produce a good result…. I will practice for one hour (on Tuesday). I (will) do some treatment with my physio and I am going to watch the [World Cup]. Then I am probably going to be relaxing a little bit at home; maybe cooking a little bit at lunchtime.”

Del Potro, on the other hand, was busy finishing off his tough one against Simon on Tuesday. Although the underdog is capable of taking the racket out of Nadal’s hands and blowing him off a grass court, conditions are suiting Nadal just fine this fortnight and Del Potro will almost certainly be unable to win this one quickly. If a competitive contest that approaches or even exceeds the three-hour mark is in store for Wednesday, Nadal should have a considerable edge in the stamina department.

Pick: Nadal in 4

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55 Comments on Wimbledon QF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Del Potro

  1. Rafa is so stingy with his FHDTL and he takes ages just to hold serve! His serve is truly terrible, when he needs it he cant produce a good one!

    Why going CC forever? Delpo is already well prepared for those shots. Its like Rafa cant think clearly. Delpo can serve so well to hold serve so easily whilst Rafa has to grind to hold serve!

    This match takes so long that Isner has already won his match in four sets by now.

  2. DelPo is playing beautiful tennis. Rafa needs to start this game well and stay away from DelPo FH. He is going for broke now !

  3. Where were all those serves that Rafa served at the biginning of the match that Delpo couldnt even return them? Where are they now? Why Rafa cant serve like that anymore??

    • Rafa won!! I am in tears now! He fought back! What a match! I am exhausted.

      I think Rafa has it easy in his other matches, so I don’t see any reason why he won’t be ready to take on Novak. He is in the semis!

      He did it the hard way, but he had an opponent who would not quit.

      For all we know, even if Rafa had won the second set, he might still have faced a battle. Look at what happened with Fed. He was up two sets and had a match point. You never know in this sport.

      But in the end Rafa did it!

      • Guys lets give some credit to Rafa. DelPo was at his brutal best in fifth and Rafa resisted. Rafa should be able to recover. He knows Djoker is vulnerable as well. Djoker can’t ace Rafa like DelPo. DelPo serve was on another level, guy had 30+ aces something which Isner/Raonic/Anderson would be proud of. Lets see

  4. It still makes me laugh that you guys were writing Rafa off after the third set as if he wasn’t still in fine position to win that match… The longer the match went on, the worse for Del Po!

    I will be VERY surprised if Rafa doesn’t win the title
    now… Fed was the only person left in the draw who Rafa has struggled against in recent years, and he gone! Nole has to much closer to his 2015 form than he currently is in order to beat Rafa in a major. And we all know what will happen in the final vs. Anderson/Isner. Rafa has that’s Wimbledon trophy within closer reach than it’s been in 7 years. He would be a fool to not take it now haha!

      • Indeed!

        I have the “Sanju Syndrome”. Just can’t watch Rafa live any more! Can’t deal with the nerves – MY nerves. Rafa’s younger. He can deal with his! Heckuva quarterfinal day though! Fed losing to KA deep in the 5th, who’d a thunk it? John Isner in a major final?!?! Grats to the Djoker fans – will anything be left of Rafa-Djoker after their semi? Just when you think tennis is totally predictable all the “experts” are wrong. Well, mostly, Djoker-Kei went pretty much as predicted.

      • Hey, what a day of tennis! Rejoice, all you Rafafans! I can’t believe all the negativity I’m reading Here. How can you think already about the Djoker now. Winning this epic fight ist good for Rafa! Who say that the Djoker would’ve fared better against Delpo! The Djoker has played well so far, but he really didn’t have a stern test, yet. Let’s wait and See. Who would’ve thought that Rafa would go further than Fed after years and years of disappointment and early round exits. Rafa didn’t go Fed’s way today. That’s good news.

  5. Congrats to all rafans including myself. This has been such a roller coaster wimby with the biggest shock coming today

  6. Rafa’s good serves deserted him and he really had to work so hard to win in the end.

    Delpo serves and hits well and he’s certainly more confident than Rafa! Commies to him that he has to work so hard and still loses in the end.

    Congrats to Rafa, into the SF again. I feel Rafa has not overcome his mental block at Wimbledon, he’s just as nervous in the QF and I foresee that he’ll be equally if not more nervous in the SF.

    In the end, Rafa uses all his guile and fighting spirit to grind down Delpo. He has himself to blame for making life difficult for himself.

    I thought he had a good chance of beating Djoko in the SF if he won this match in a relatively easier manner but now after 4 hr 45 mins of a match, he’s not going to beat Djoko in the SF.

    • So DelPo can beat Rafa after 4 hours who is all time great in grinding but Rafa after 4 hours with one rest day cant beat Djoker who has his set of problems.

      Rafa’s match was not that physical , even Djoker himeslf has 2 four setters in one week. And Djoker isn’t used to winning. Lets see what happens.

        • Exactly Mona! Rafa’s good serves deserted him in the fifth set and he had to work so hard to win! Djoko returns serves many times better than Delpo!

          I’m not having any defeatist mentality, but watching the match as objectively as possible, it’s not difficult to see that Rafa:
          1) wasn’t serving well as the match dragged on.
          2) he couldn’t return big serves that well esp when Delpo was so determined in the fifth set not to lose his serve, after one bad service game.
          3) Rafa was not using his FH DTL that often, he preferred going CC with both his FH, BH and inside out FH hit at his BH corner. By the fifth set, Delpo was so used to the pattern of play from Rafa that he knew exactly where Rafa was going to hit the ball.
          4) it’s not difficult to notice that Rafa was nervous while serving for the set in the TB and he DF’d. Had he won that point he would’ve won the second set and saved an hour or so on the tennis court.

          The good thing is Rafa’s fighting spirit, using his guile to make Delpo ran for all those drop shots. Rafa’s BH is also good though his FH could be better if he hit more DTL shots to surprise Delpo.

          I think Djoko has the edge in the SF because Djoko is not Delpo, he can grind down anyone and the way he could retrieve so many shots, it’s scary. Rafa will have a hard time if he decides to grind his way to beat Djoko; it’s better that he comes out all guns blazing, plays like their USO2013 final, grabs the upper hand ASAP and not allowing Djoko time to fight back. He beat Djoko at the USO by playing aggressive tennis, not grinding tennis even though Djoko did turn the second set into a grinding war.

          As for Delpo, he surprised me with his fitness. He did serve very well throughout the match, something I doubt he could do before the match as I thought he would be tired. I guess he did up his level for this QF as it’s against Rafa, though I feel he’s helped by Rafa’s nervousness when Rafa was serving for the second set in the TB.

    • You are a very fair observer, Luckystar. I’ve come to know this. I didn’t get to watch Rafa v Delpo but I will later. Novak looked good and he handled himself well vs the crowd and Kei. Rafa will have the crowd behind him.

      I don’t feel certain at all about the outcome of their match. Rafa is extremely strong and fit right now. He really looks better than ever, imo. So good luck to you and Rafa. And hope they play a good match, Nole keeps his cool, and all goes well – no one gets injured. It’s going to be close and I really hope Rafa or Nole win the title! Not those guys on the other side!

    • Yeah!…I agree with everything u said Lucky!…And yeah,it seems Novak got big adv in this match…But,i also believe that Rafa will do his best to win…As his custom,and it happened many times before if u notice..1 day he played an amazing match…and the next whether he played bad/so-so..and next match once again played brilliantly…He played ok in Sela’s match…but so-so against Kukushkin..and played excellent again vs DeMinaur…So,i want to believe that Rafa will play brilliantly against Novak…

      • Mira, Rafa has to play aggressive tennis to beat Djoko; he can beat Djoko if he’s the more offensive player of the two. My fear is that Rafa will come out and starts playing Long rallies with Djoko, the way he plays against Delpo.

        I feel Rafa and his team had gotten their strategy wrong against Delpo; perhaps like me, they thought Delpo would be tired by now after all the grinding he endured against Simon so Rafa played grinding tennis vs Delpo, making Delpo run, moving him around the court, engaging in long points.

        I thought Rafa would come out and played like he did against Vesely, ie more aggressive with shorter points and rushed Delpo. He didn’t, until after losing the third set, that he changed his approach and started moving into the forecourt more and won points at the net. I feel thats why he won the fourth set and think he should play that way at the start of the match.

  7. Please can we stop all the talk about Nole winning…He has had his own vulnerabilities and rafa can correct his strategy. I would like to see moya there now!

  8. amy,

    Yes please stop with this defeatist talk! One would think Rafa had lost reading the doom and gloom here Rafa just win a great victory! To put it down to nerves is to disrespect what Delpo did in this mstch. He threw everything he had at Rafa bad in the end, Rafa won!

    If we learned anything today it’s that you never assume anything. Novak is not assured of anything. Let’s have some faith in Rafa! He did not give up, so don’t write him off,

    • Andy Murray was commentating nny and he said the final set was one of the greatest sets of tennis he had ever seen live…
      High five!!!😀

      • amy,

        Thanks for that. I would have liked to hear him. I think Delpo deserves a lot of credit for putting up such a great fight. People seem to forget that there are two players in a match. Sometimes what happens is not always in a player’s hands.

        Rafa did play well fir the first two sets. He has had lapses in his previous matches, but his opponents were big able to capitalize. In this instance, Delpo did take advantage. He got back in the match. Rafa’s level seemed to drop and he seemed to lose his way while Delpo was crushing aces and blasting that forehand.

        However, you could see the determination after Rada went down two sets to one. He was not going to lose this match. I could see it on his face. Not without a fight. He stayed strong. I do not think it was nerves at all. It was facing a top tier opponent for the first time in this tournament. Delpo was always going to be tougher on grass, Rafa has not had tough matches or been tested yet. Who knows what would have happened if he did win the second set. Look at what happened with Fed. What if Delpo has hung in there and mounted a comeback anyway? You never know.

        I think one long match should not do Rafa in. He came in having only played two exho matches in preparation. He has bit been pushed past three sets. He’s got a day of rest. So let’s see what happens in the semis.

  9. Andy Murray did a great job as a commentator. He knew what he was talking about not like most of them who just coast along and start gossiping when they have nothing to say.

  10. I wont be surprised if Isner/Anderson come close to winning Wimbledon. They are plaing well. Big servers are always a worry.

  11. Nobody kid yourself- Rafa is absolutely the favorite now. Of course Novak should never be counted out, but he’s just not the same player he used to be, and I just don’t see him beating Rafa in a major right now. Sure, Anderson/Isner can be tricky in these conditions, but upsetting a Big 4 guy in their first Wimbledon final? Please… We saw what happened to Cilic in his first Wimby final last year, and he’s actually won a major before haha!

    Again, I’m not writing Novak off, but I will be very surprised if Rafa doesn’t win this title now…

    • Kevin, while I’m a bit less confident than you, I like your attitude! I can’t believe how much negativity ist floating around here amongst rafafans. Why? Rafa scored a great win – very important at this time in his career. And if he could win against a great Delpo, he has a chance against Novak, too, even if tiredness might be a slight concern. But c’mon! Rafa must be floating right now.
      That said, don’t count out the players from the bottom half. I really hope that Anderson makes the final. And if he does, he will have a decent chance – no matter who his opponent will be.

  12. I felt the same exact way at the US Open last year. As soon as Fed lost there, or maybe even before he lost since he didn’t look great the whole time, I immediately just did not realistically see how Rafa wasn’t going to win it. Ever since AO of last year, I’ve believed that Federer is the only guy who can challenge Rafa at the majors these days. So once Federer is out of a tournament, then to me Rafa goes from having had a good shot to win it all, to suddenly becoming likely to win it all. And that’s how I see it now! I just can’t see Novak or whoever in the Final beating Rafa in the business end of a major. It would absolutely be an upset if Novak beat him, and it would be a monumental upset of Isner/Anderson won.

    I challenge those guys to prove me wrong, but I just don’t see it happening…

    • And I felt similarly when Rafa went out of the AO this year- I just didn’t see anyone else realistically challenging Fed once Rafa went out.

      • Really kevin? You don’t think Nole can beat him?
        How is Rafa’s serve going to hold up against Nole ‘s ros?
        Serious question not negativity…!

        • I agree, Amy. While I don’t understand the negativity, I also don’t think at all that Novak doesn’t have a chance. Of course He has a chance. And since Novak and Rafa haven’t played against each other for over three years in a slam match it’s very hard to predict what will happen. Especially Novak is hard to figure out here at Wimby. He has played well, but he also hasn’t been tested. I don’t consider Kei to be a stern test. But while Novak may still not be his old self, I also wouldn’t count on him still being in a strong slump…

        • Amy, notice I’m always careful to never use the word “can’t”. 🙂 Of course Nole can beat Rafa. Twice he’s had 7-straight wins over Rafa since 2011. However, I just personally don’t see it happening this time around. I still see Novak as not close to his best, while Rafa has played some of his best tennis the last couple years.

    • Well, Kevin, I hope you are right. I won’t mind losing this argument ☺
      Let me just say this: even a dry and sunny Wimby isn’t like the USO. If Kevin reaches the final, he will be a much more dangerous opponent than at the USO. He’s just one of those guys who have been extremely frustrating for Rafa at Wimby for many years . And Kevin now has the added advantage that he has played in a slam final already. It won’t be a totally new experience for him, although a Wimby final may feel a bit different than a USO final. Anyway, at Wimby the big bittere always have a chance.
      And Rafa will still have to make it into the final. He hasn’t played against Novak at the slams for over three years now – incredible! Last time was at RG 2015, where he lost in three sets. So much has happened since then, that it’s very hard to predict what will happen between those two.

      • We shouldn’t forget Rafa played really well in the first 2 sets and should have been up 2 sets to love! If he starts like that against Nole maybe this time he will see it through…

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