Wimbledon QF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Del Potro

Rafael Nadal and Juan Martin Del Potro will be squaring off for the 15th time in their careers and in a second consecutive Grand Slam when they meet again in the Wimbledon quarterfinals on Wednesday.

Nadal is leading the head-to-head series 10-5 after dominating Del Potro 6-4, 6-1, 6-2 in the French Open semifinals. The Spaniard is 6-2 in their last eight encounters and 2-0 in their last two, having also prevailed 4-6, 6-0, 6-3, 6-2 in the 2017 U.S. Open semis. They previously collided at Wimbledon in 2011, when Nadal got the job done 7-6(6), 3-6, 7-6(4), 6-4 on the second Monday.

This marks the second consecutive occasion on which Del Potro is facing Nadal with no days of rest after winning a delayed match. It happened at Roland Garros due to rain, as the Argentine eventually outlasted Marin Cilic in a fourth-round affair. Del Potro’s match against Simon was the only fourth-rounder that did not finish on Monday, as play was suspended due to darkness with the world No. 4 leading two sets to one. He returned on Tuesday to battle back from a break down in the fourth and win 7-6(1), 7-6(5), 5-7, 7-6(5).

Del Potro preceded that result with more straightforward victories over Peter Gojowyczk, Feliciano Lopez, and Benoit Paire. The 2009 U.S. Open champion is now 32-7 for the year and fourth in the race to London–less than 1,000 points out of second.

Nadal had struggled at Wimbledon over the past five seasons, but he has been armed with good health ever since skipping the February and March hard-court swing. Following continued dominance on clay, the world No. 1 now finds himself in his first quarterfinal at the All-England Club since 2011. Nadal has advanced so far without dropping a set while disposing of Dudi Sela, Mikhail Kukushkin, Alex De Minaur, and Jiri Vesely.

“Of course it’s an important result for me,” the second seed assured. “But when I came here, I came here thinking that I could produce a good result…. I will practice for one hour (on Tuesday). I (will) do some treatment with my physio and I am going to watch the [World Cup]. Then I am probably going to be relaxing a little bit at home; maybe cooking a little bit at lunchtime.”

Del Potro, on the other hand, was busy finishing off his tough one against Simon on Tuesday. Although the underdog is capable of taking the racket out of Nadal’s hands and blowing him off a grass court, conditions are suiting Nadal just fine this fortnight and Del Potro will almost certainly be unable to win this one quickly. If a competitive contest that approaches or even exceeds the three-hour mark is in store for Wednesday, Nadal should have a considerable edge in the stamina department.

Pick: Nadal in 4

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73 Comments on Wimbledon QF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Del Potro

  1. Ricky, 10 days ago you had DelPotro over Nadal in 4 today you have Nadal over Delpo in 4, what’s changed? It can’t be because Delpo had to finish his match today, surely?

    • Nadal has looked way better than expected and conditions have also played way better than expected for him.

      Also Delpo was bad against Simon.

      • Ricky is right, Delpo was bad against Simon, and he’s not that good against Paire either. Delpo should’ve the ability to put Simon away sooner, yet he was dragged into a grinding war by Simon.

        Rafa is playing better tennis than Simon here, I don’t see him having to grind to beat Delpo. In fact, I feel playing against Vesely is/was at least of some help to Rafa, as according to his coach Roig, Rafa was dictating play against Vesely in order not to allow Vesely to play his big serving and big hitting game. Vesely is no Delpo of course, but the gameplan against Vesely could well be used against Delpo, and Rafa certainly has to up his level in order to do so against Delpo.

        • lucky,

          I had the sense watching Rafa’s match with Vesely, that he simply did not allow him to play his game. Rafa used the drop shot effectively since Vesely was not moving into the court. He also used his slice to keep the ball low and exploit Vesely’s mediocre movement.

          Rafa threw a lot at Vesely and just took him out of his game. Now I do think that it will be tougher to do against the likes of Delpo. He has a much mite high quality game and it will be more of a challenge to take Delpo out of his game. But Rafa is the one who can do it.

          I don’t have a problem with anyone picking Delpo to beat Rafa in the quarterfinals before the tournament started. Rafa did not play in a warm up tournament. Only two exho matches. He has not gone past the fourth round in recent years.

          However, seeing how well Rafa is playing and how he has gotten better with every match, I now think that Rafa will beat Delpo. This will be his first real test. It’s a big step up from the caliber of players he’s faced so far.

      • In DelPo’s defense, I swear sometimes Simon’s game is literally hypnotic. I can’t think of another player who, for no discernible reason, causes his opponent to play so far below his usual level like Simon does.

        I mean, Fed sometimes makes his opponents look bad, but it’s usually due to Federer being…well..Federer. With Simon, I get to the end of the match and I marvel at the fact that NOBODY played well.

  2. Can’t speak for Ricky but I also had Delpo over Rafa and doubt very much at this point that Delpo will beat Rafa. There was just some doubts in my mind about Rafa at Wimbledon. Now I’m pretty certain after watching both play this tournament that the winner is Rafa.

  3. Rafa and Delpo are second on centre after Nole and kei. Roger starts on court one.bet he doesn’t want to play there!

      • Can’t actually remember fed ever playing anywhere but centre in the late stages of wimby!
        Guess he’ll have to cut tim henman from his address book now!

        • I read that it’s Djoko who requested for CC; according to that article, Djoko was worried that the Monfils/Anderson match yesterday would go five sets and he heard that should that happened, his match vs Khachanov would be postponed to today. He complained that his matches were often the last match of the day and he had to play in dimming daylights, and he hardly played at CC.

          I guess giving him the first slot at CC for the QF is the best solution, as Fed will be playing in the first slot at Court 1; and unless it rains all day, Fed as the no.1 seed who plays first should be able to complete his match tomorrow.

          Fed’s half should start first hence he’s not being put second at CC. I think they also feel confident that with Fed at Court 1, it’ll fill to full capacity. They’re not putting Rafa first at CC as it’ll crash with Fed’s match and so not great for viewership purposes, as they’re the two most popular tennis players, ahead of Djoko.

          • Will Fed be given an orientation course on CC and he’ll need GPS to find his way there? 😉 They should have put him on court 1 in the earlier rounds. Everything is so Fed orientated which is unfair to the rest of the players.

            If Fed serves an ace or plays a winner they enthuse about so much you’d think no one else does that.

  4. Btw did anyone else notice how quickly rafa was playing the points against vesely!? I was counting and he was usually at or under 20 seconds which is amazing for him! I was very relieved as aderaski was umpiring and she has really gone after him before.

    • The article doesn’t really say that sanju! Murray just says he is capable of beating Roger and rafa..not that he thinks he actually will…!

      • well he said he has got a very good shot. Ofcourse no one can really say what will happen. However stupid it may sound..there is a 1 percent chance too that Fed may lose to Kevin Anderson..its tennis and anything can happen and no prediction comes with surity.

          • That’s because when u guys happily chatting here,my world is still dark & i’m zzzzzzz Sanju!…Now,i’m awake..and my guts just told me that Rafa will win tomorrow![Insyaallah!]…Whoooooo!!….I think maybe in 3 sets Sanju!

            Then there’s the concern of DelPo’s fitness too…I think his groin still give him trouble…And to spar with Rafa u need 100% healthy…I think Rafa will try to make him run a little bit more tomorrow…I have no doubt Rafa will win…I just hope,he will not spend so much time on court…To prepare for much bigger challenge with Novak….

            VAMOS RAFA!!WOOOOHOOOOO!!…BRING IT ON!!

        • I think mira is very optimistic that rafa will win ! I never ever make predictions about rafa! Am way too superstitious! Mira will tell me off for saying this but I am nervous that rafa hasn ‘t had a bad match where he is visibly on edge yet! There is usually one so I hope it’s not tomorrow..

          • Which was the nervous match say for fo 17..I believe none right..which was it for uso 17..maybe 3rd round ? But more than the edge match..I think its the match that makes him confident that he has a real good shot as he has ironed out chinks n challenges.

          • Yeah!!U’re right amy dear!!Hahaha…I can’t help from being optimistic amy!!…I am a very positive person..and if i think Rafa will win..i will say it straight away!….Same if i have doubt of some sort,i will say it too…Remember i’m very skeptical about Rafa’s chances before the tourney start?And after i saw his 1st & 3rd match,i already knew that this is a different Rafa from the one who played here for the past 6 years!….Different guys!!…Why??

            Yesterday,i read an article Rafa said he’s playing without pain…WITHOUT PAIN GUYS!!…Can u believe it??Playing without pain on grass??…That’s the key!!…And it’s bcoz of the hot weather i think…that makes the court dried & hard & bcoz of that,the ball bouncing higher than usual…so,Rafa don’t have to bend his knees lower to get the ball…So,his knees not suffered much…And he’s very comfortable playing in this conditions that suits him very well…

            About nerves…I don’t think it’s going to be a big factor anymore guys!…I’m terrified when i’m thinking about his nerves before the tourney…But,not anymore guys!…When Rafa beat Vesely[with commanding scores],he also break his Wimby curse…And it gives Rafa a hell of a confident to do well in his next match..Believe me!…I also believe that what we’ve seen atm is the Rafa version of 2008,2010..but with more tools this time..which is more dangerous for his opponents…I don’t say he will win Wimby…yet!Considering he has to face Nole & Fed…But this version of Rafa is the one that we call it…Vintage Rafa…At least this is my brain talking!..We will see whether it’s true or not in a couple of days time…If not,it’s clear that my kneecap do the talking today!!,,Hahahaha….

          • Sorry for the long post guys!…But i can’t help it!!…I have a very good feelings again today!…

          • Mira, I’m with you about Rafa. I like what I’ve seen of Rafa on grass this year. Even though he was good last year too on grass but last year I saw a hesitant Rafa playing against Muller, one who’s clearly short of match practices.

            This year, Rafa plays with more determination and more conviction I feel (even though he hasn’t played any warm up event). His last two matches where he came out all guns blazing against potentially dangerous opponents made me feel that Rafa is/was ready this time to go far (and possibly could win the whole thing) even though the road ahead from QF onwards would be tough.

            PS. Rafa himself felt that he played well against Kukushkin, even better than against Sela. I think most if not all of us are/were puzzled why Rafa felt that way, because among his four matches, that Kukushkin match seemed to be the worst in terms of the way Rafa handled his opponent.

          • MA,

            Thank you so much for bringing up that Rafa has said he is feeling very good physically! On ESPN the other day they were discussing how they asked Rafa if the warm conditions were the reason he was doing so well. But he said no, it was that he is healthy, his knees are feeling good and physically he is just feeling very good. As you said, this is music to our ears!

            When Rafa is healthy, watch out! He has looked so comfortable in his matches. I can’t remember the last time I saw him this way on the grass. I am happy for him. Also, I think he does not have the mental pressure that he had at RG. He can play freely now.

            I have good feelings about how he will do in his next match. He has broken through the barrier and is in the quarterfinals. He has handled his opponents very well. The first good news we got was the draw. It was a good one in the early rounds. Just what Rafa needed! Even though lower ranked, we have seen him lose to lower ranked players in the past. So nothing was to be taken for granted in these early rounds. But Rafa came through with flying colors.

            I am feeling it just the way you are.
            😍

          • Mira good to see your confidence. It’s good to take it match by match. I hope Rafa wins today n then the next 2 matches too god willing.

          • Yeah Lucky!…Me too!…I never thought that i can watch this version of Rafa once again!..NEVER!!…God!..I miss ed the old/vintage Rafa very much!!…And his form in DeMinaur match was just sooooo amazing..It was like watching the 22 year old Rafa with no baggage in his mind…

            Also i agree about Rafa vs Muller’s match last year…’Hesitant Rafa’..exactly!…I remember how pi@#ed i am to see Rafa playing so passively,so far behind the baseline..just let Muller dictated the game/him…It’s so easy to do that when Rafa sent the signal that Muller had him by the neck…It’s not fun for us fans to see that..But,it’s the truth…Imo,Rafa was the one who should insert his authority..but that’s not the case last year…But this year…’That Rafa’ is a mere shadow from what we’ve seen so far…Insyaallah,everythings will come naturally if he keep being healthy…Vamos Rafa!!

          • Nny!…Yeahh!!…Your thought exactly what i have in mine Nny!!…Oh My God!!….I’m so so happy to know that everythings clicking perfectly for our Rafa atm!…Hopefully we can keep continue watching this amazing Rafa for next 3 rds…It’s not every year that we’ve been blessed watching Rafa play freely without pain…Right Nny?Thank u God!!

          • Sanju!….Yeah!..We take it match by match!…I just hope,Rafa would not spend so much time on court…That is very important..If he play like in DeMinaur’s match,the chance of him ending the match quickly is pretty high…Also hope he will not waste too many BP’s when it’s given to him…Vamos Rafa!!

      • amy,

        You are correct, I read it and Murray is not making a prediction. People can say whatever they want to say. As Rafa has said so well in the past, what counts is what happens on the court.

  5. I think the hitout again at Simon will be perfect preparation for this. Del Potro looks really fit, strong and hungry to me.

    He gets a 2nd crack at Nadal in a short period but on Nadal’s weakest surface.

    Could be match of tournament, I’m looking forward to this one.

    Del Potro in 5

      • Gosh jim predicting rafa will lose! There’s a first time for everything😀
        Oh sorry I completely forgot he picked Marterer to beat him at Rg!

    • Ha ha you and your predictions. Perfect source of entertainment for me. Have you counted how many times your prediction has gone right. But again I am happy first mission for nadal accomplished i.e JC predicting a nadal loss. Thanks from an avid nadal fan.

      • Rafa Rules, yes, “Jim Courier’s” prediction prowess is nothing he can make a living with, lol! Often it’s more wishful thinking anyway as far as Rafa is concerned. I’m not saying that Delpo can’t win. But from what we saw from both players so far a Delpo-win is unlikely.

  6. Nadal in 4, maybe even 3. He’s just playing to good right now for me to predict he will lose to Del Po, especially since Del Po will be tired and hasn’t looked so great in his last match or two.

    I don’t see anyone realistically knocking off Rafa who hasn’t knocked him off at Wimbledon before. Not this year. I pray that we get a Rafa-Nole semi. I’m sure Rafa wouldn’t mind getting revenge for 2011 Wimby. 🙂 Same with Fed- he wouldn’t mind redeeming himself after shitting the bed in 2015 vs. Nole!

  7. And there we go again: we are well into the second week of a slam, eight players are left – and not a single one of the highly praised young guns has even managed to reach the quarterfinal. Four of the players are already thirtysomethings. The others are in their late twenties, and all are seasoned hands. Four of them are slam winners, three of them are double digit slam winners and GOAT candidates. Three of the quarterfinalists are multiple Wimby Champions. The future of tennis has again be postponed.
    While I’m of course happy for Rafa, I’m starting to find the overall picture of men’s tennis quite depressing. I had really hoped to see a few fresh faces reaching the latter stages of the tournament. It’s just not happening. The only one who didn’t disappoint was Tsitsipas. But I’m very reluctant to jump on his bandwagon just yet. It’s too early to assess his true potential. Shapovalov for example who had his grand coming out last season, had a very mediocre year so far. It remains to be seen how he will fare during the American hardcourt season one year after he entered the stage with a bit bang. Cannhe defend any of his points? So, let’s observe Tsitsipas closely for now and hope for the best. I liked what I saw so far and he seems to have a healthy amount of fighting spirit.

    • I think Tsitipas has the best potential; his father is his coach, watching over him closely. It reminded me of Rafa and Toni. Tsitipas said his idol is Fed and he watched a lot of videos of Fed’s matches and he said he wanted to play like Fed.

      However, he’s into point construction too, not so much an aggressive player the way Fed is. Perhaps he can have the best of both world, ie a combination of Fed’s and Rafa’s game/style – aggressive with strategic thinking.

      Shapo’s coach is his mum if I’m not wrong. I think Shapo’s idol is also Fed, hence he plays with a SHBH and an ultra aggressive style, more aggressive than Fed’s perhaps, more like going for broke all the time. I do feel as he matures, he should tone down on that go for broke approach, and learns how to hold back at the right time, perhaps one day he could play like Fed.

      Sasha is the ‘oldest’ among the three and more established, I feel he has all the tools to play the defense/offends game, but like Murray, he tends to hold back on his aggression, and so let his matches dragged on unnecessarily.

      Coric/Chung play like a Djoko, Chung admitted that he wants to play like Djoko (I think Djoko is his idol) except of course they do not have Djoko’s weapons, may be some but not all.

  8. JDP will have to play like he did back in the Olympic Games……..that’s his only chance….so I’m saying Rafa in 3.

    • Scoot, Delpo was indeed awsome in Rio. But Rafa wasn’t in form at all back then. He had just come back prematurely from his wrist injury in order to participate at the 2016 Olympics. And he was also very exhausted, since he wasn’t fit in the first place. He also had played doubles as well and just won the gold medal. But despite all these disadvantages he still almost won against Delpo!
      Rafa has won most of his important matches against Delpo, though. I think he will so so again tomorrow. But he might lose his first set in grass this year. Delpo often plays well against Rafa in patches. But normally he can’t sustain it. The might even be a psychological block.

  9. Correction: five of the quarterfinalists are thirtysomethings! I forgot John Isner who also has celebrated his 30th birthday already. And Delpo isn’t too far off. Could this be one of the oldest slam quarterfinals ever??
    As to tomorrow’s matches: the older players of each match-up will win. Djoker over Kei, Fed over Anderson, Rafa over Delpo and Isner over Raonic – although I’m not quite sure about the match of the ace machines. This one could go either way. Raonic is the more talented player but Isner has been the far more successful player lately.

      • Ricky, how am I supposed to know why Raonic is more talented than Isner?? Genetics, upbringing, eating habits, Eastern European origins? ☺
        Whatever – but while Raonic has been more successful at the slams and has had more wins over top ten players than Isner, Big John has been far more successful recently – mainly because Raonic has been injured a lot.

  10. I think Raonic has worked a lot more at his game, on grass. He’s had McEnroe as a coach and got to the Wimby final beating Federer , what has Isner done?
    Don’t think theres much in it, talent wise.

    • Do you really think Del Potro will have enough to stop Rafa? He looked doubtful against Simon, and Rafa is much better.

      • Del Po shows up for big matches, and this surface gives him the best shot at an upset. A champ like him can typically find his rhythm even if he didn’t have it in his prior match. And if he finds his rhythm and looks like he did for the first couple matches of the week, he’s gonna be a very very tough out.

  11. Hello to everyone from London! 🙂 Rafa will take care of this in 3 or 4 sets.

    Just thought of dropping my occasional message before Rafa’s important Qtr final.

    • Hey VR!!…Nice to see u here!!…How r u Bro??Life treat u well i take it?hehehe…Oh!..missed your analysis so much VR!..Hoping u will come back permanently!

    • VR,

      You know how much I miss you because I tell you every time you drop in and post! Guess who is back with us? Cheryl Murray! She is posting here and will be writing her great blogs again! Something worth coming here to read!

      I would love to hear your analysis of Rafa’s form right now and his chances, but it’s good to know that you seem confident he will win.

      I keep hoping you will change your mind and come back to us!
      😁

    • Hi VR! It’s so nice to see you on here. Indeed, I will be a regular contributor here with Ricky. I’m excited to see everyone again and I can’t wait to get back to blogging regularly. 🙂

  12. I underestimated Rafa in this tournament,and he is playing much better than I expected. Del Potro did not look good against Simon, and he looked very tired. Del Potro might take the first set, but then he would get too tired and Nadal would win.
    Nadal in 4

  13. Conditions favour Rafa, and I think Delpo get tired in the heat. Nadal in 4.

    Delpo is actually the player I would least want to see Fed play in the final, if he makes it there. He always plays Fed tough and might have the best chance of beating him of those remaining. Player I most want to see is Novak, partly for payback. (I also think he is the most likely finalist from that side).

    That’s cool that Rafa likes to cook! I picture these guys all having a personal chef.

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