Wimbledon QF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Del Potro

Rafael Nadal and Juan Martin Del Potro will be squaring off for the 15th time in their careers and in a second consecutive Grand Slam when they meet again in the Wimbledon quarterfinals on Wednesday.

Nadal is leading the head-to-head series 10-5 after dominating Del Potro 6-4, 6-1, 6-2 in the French Open semifinals. The Spaniard is 6-2 in their last eight encounters and 2-0 in their last two, having also prevailed 4-6, 6-0, 6-3, 6-2 in the 2017 U.S. Open semis. They previously collided at Wimbledon in 2011, when Nadal got the job done 7-6(6), 3-6, 7-6(4), 6-4 on the second Monday.

This marks the second consecutive occasion on which Del Potro is facing Nadal with no days of rest after winning a delayed match. It happened at Roland Garros due to rain, as the Argentine eventually outlasted Marin Cilic in a fourth-round affair. Del Potro’s match against Simon was the only fourth-rounder that did not finish on Monday, as play was suspended due to darkness with the world No. 4 leading two sets to one. He returned on Tuesday to battle back from a break down in the fourth and win 7-6(1), 7-6(5), 5-7, 7-6(5).

Del Potro preceded that result with more straightforward victories over Peter Gojowyczk, Feliciano Lopez, and Benoit Paire. The 2009 U.S. Open champion is now 32-7 for the year and fourth in the race to London–less than 1,000 points out of second.

Nadal had struggled at Wimbledon over the past five seasons, but he has been armed with good health ever since skipping the February and March hard-court swing. Following continued dominance on clay, the world No. 1 now finds himself in his first quarterfinal at the All-England Club since 2011. Nadal has advanced so far without dropping a set while disposing of Dudi Sela, Mikhail Kukushkin, Alex De Minaur, and Jiri Vesely.

“Of course it’s an important result for me,” the second seed assured. “But when I came here, I came here thinking that I could produce a good result…. I will practice for one hour (on Tuesday). I (will) do some treatment with my physio and I am going to watch the [World Cup]. Then I am probably going to be relaxing a little bit at home; maybe cooking a little bit at lunchtime.”

Del Potro, on the other hand, was busy finishing off his tough one against Simon on Tuesday. Although the underdog is capable of taking the racket out of Nadal’s hands and blowing him off a grass court, conditions are suiting Nadal just fine this fortnight and Del Potro will almost certainly be unable to win this one quickly. If a competitive contest that approaches or even exceeds the three-hour mark is in store for Wednesday, Nadal should have a considerable edge in the stamina department.

Pick: Nadal in 4

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22 Comments on Wimbledon QF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Del Potro

    • At least the English spectators won’t be distracted by the soccer final on Sunday ☺
      And Cilic has something to smile about, although he should be furious with himself for losing against Pella. Now, that Roger is out, he would’ve had a great shot at the final.

  1. Also Nole raises his game against Rafa! Rafa will have to serve well to have a fighting chance. I don’t understand why he abandoned the sliding serve out wide and kept serving straight at Delpo! It gave Delpo so many changes on his serve!

      • Interestingly the serve stats are better for Rafa than for Delpo. Rafa didn’t serve poorly, but he had a few poor moments at important junctions of the match. He really shouldn’t have lost the second set!
        But then again, he dug in and prevailed – unlike in many other five-set tussles of the previous years at Wimby, where he always lost.This is the first five-setter in a long time which Rafa wins at Wimby. Actually, if you think about it – Rafa has lost many five-set matches at the slams in the last years. He used to be very good at five-setters in earlier years. But these stats have taken a drastic hit in more recent years. I can only recall many losses. So, this win over Delpo in five is very good news!

  2. I expected Rafa to be nervous! He has lost so many matches on grass from the winning position, probably had same flashbacks when serving in the second set tiebreaker… however, Delpo was just amazing tonight! He is such a greal player and would have had a couple more GS titles if it were not for his unfortunate injuries. He served extremely well, held it together till the very end, fought like crazy on pure adrenaline. But Rafa, boy, his determination and warrior spirit should scare his next opponents. He was rock solid and managed to resist Delpo’s persistent attacking. This was a great match indeed!

    Nole is back to his near best! Rafa has mental blockade when playing Nole which automatically erases some of his strength and aggressiveness! I don’t think Rafa will be tired as this match was not that physically demanding. Rafa and Nole will certainly engage into long rallies and Rafa will be ready for it! The match can go either way! Hope Rafa finds his best and stays as calm as possible.

    Give credit to Delpo for being up to the task to face Goliath in Rafa! Give credit to Rafa for great volleys and drop shots and for good positioning on court and some memorable winners!

    Bravo Rafa! So proud of you!

    Vamos Champ!

    • Natashao, I also just remarked that Rafa lost so many matches at Wimby even after winning the first set. And he lost so many five-setters – not just at Wimby but also at other slams! Which is kind of surprising, since Rafa is the ultimate fighter. But his five-set stats have taken a drastic hit in recent years. I recall many more five-set losses than wins at the slams. When did he actually win the last five-setter at the slams before today? Do we have to go all the way back to the RG semis 2013 against Novak or is my memory faulty?? So, this must’ve been stressful for Rafa, but he dug in, came back and prevailed in a great match, which is already called by many experts the best of the years so far.

      • Yeah littlefoot, I remember before the rosol defeat, there were barely any 5 set defeats Rafa had taken. Miami 2005, Wimby 2007 and Australia 2012 came to mind. Since there were so many I lost count, Rosol, Fognini, Federer, Muller, Verdasco, Pouille.

        Same for the first set record- he had defeats in MIami, to Ferrer, Djokovic after winning the first set.
        Then rosol, fognini etc etc

        In fact I think I recollect watching him win a match against Tim Smyczek in Australia 2015 which could be the last five setter he won.

        • vmk1, yes, the match against Smyczek was one of the few five-setters Rafa won in recent years. But he lost many more than he won. This is really kind of strange if you think about it. We’re talking about the ultimate fighter, the guy who never gives up! How can it be that his five-set stats have been so bad for many years now?? Strangely this shortcoming is rarely talked about by experts and commenters. But it must be in Rafa’s mind for sure – and in the minds of his opponents who have certainly registered this. Therefore this win against Delpo after he was two sets to one down is extremely important.

  3. What a match. Congrats to Nadal on a huge win and getting further than I expected (though I predicted he would win this match). As many people including me suspected, delpo’s fatigue played a role in the end. Rafa is just the fitter player, and he was clutch at the end when it counted most. The running forehand to hold serve to 5-3 was a thing of beauty.

  4. “I’m sorry for him, of course. But it is impossible to win always, even for him.

    “Even if it will be probably a tough day for him because he had a lot of chances to win the match, match point, two sets to love. It’s a tough day.

    “But that’s how works this sport, even more here on grass.

    “I just feel sorry for him and congrats to Kevin.

    Rafa when quizzed about Roger’s exit.

    And then you have the other guy who laughed for ten minutes when Rafa was Rosoled

    • That was very gracious of Rafa. I would expect nothing less. He knows what it feels like. He knows what Wimbledon means to Fed.

      I am just so proud of Rafa for fighting back in this match. Coming from behind to win on grass after the last tough years here, must be so satisfying for him. Also, he knows that Delpo left it all on the court. He survived the best from Delpo.

      One can look at it two wayside- it was a grueling match that will cost Rafa in the semis, or he will gain confidence and belief and momentum from this great victory.

      I watched the second set TB because I was too nervous to watch it live. Rafa was up 6-3. Then Delpo played two great points to erase two set points. But then Rafa did the unforgivable – he DF’d on set point. That was very costly. Delpo took that and ran with it. He started dictating play and Rafa was on defense. But after losing that third set, Rafa dug in and started to play better.

      The bottom line – Rafa was tested by a great player. He triumphed in the end. It was great to see.

  5. I’m just happy Rafa got the win in the end. Delpo played well, serving well especially and Rafa was right, Delpo deserved to win too. Both Rafa and Delpo are such fighters, they’ll never go down without fighting.

    Rafa hopes he will recover in time for the SF; it’s important that he does, as Djoko will be another tough opponent. Djoko could just grind down his opponents, retrieving almost every shot it’s ridiculous at times.

    I really don’t know who’s the tougher opponent for Rafa – Delpo or Djoko? Hope Rafa is ready for the battle with Djoko.

  6. I did feel it was going to be that sort of match, with Nadal very hard to beat over five.But, was surprised how well Delpo played over the whole match. He didn’t deserve to lose.

    • It’s a bit like Delpo’s SF match vs Djoko back in 2013 Wimbledon when Delpo played his heart out but still lost. Djoko served many aces then and that helped him to overcome Delpo on that day.

      It’s heart breaking to lose five setters like this but Delpo won some important epic five setters too, like beating Murray and Cilic to win Argentina’s first Davis Cup.

  7. The bookies gave 2.10 for Nadal at the open knowing that he should really be 3s but the market would gobble up the 2.10 thinking it’s at least a 50/50 contest.

    Djokovic is the far superior grass courter due to his ability to flatten out plus he’s fresher after a long break and had an easier run to the semis.

    Nadal is worn out from a long clay court season and the 5-setter against Del Potro will be the final nail in the coffin.

  8. Djokovic has a huge amount to play for so if things get tough he’ll be all in.

    Expect to see the Djokovic of old in this one.

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