Wimbledon final preview and pick: Federer vs. Djokovic

There were more than a few surprises en route to the Wimbledon title match, but Sunday’s finale at the All-England Club features a marquee matchup between Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer. Djokovic is bidding for his second Wimbledon winner’s trophy, while Federer is looking to extend his record to 18 Grand Slam triumphs.

Before this fortnight even started, some said the 2014 installment of Wimbledon would be Federer’s last best chance to win an 18th major title. While that assertion may have been up for debate two weeks ago, it’s hard to argue that now. After all, Federer is one win away from more glory at the All-England Club and his opponent in Sunday’s final is not named Rafael Nadal.

Still, though, it is a formidable adversary. Novak Djokovic is a respectable 16-18 lifetime against Federer and the Serb has won four of their last six meetings dating back to the fall of 2012. They have faced each three times this season; Federer prevailed 3-6, 6-3, 6-2 in Dubai, Djokovic won a 3-6, 6-3, 7-6(3) Indian Wells thriller, and Federer beat a hobbled Djokovic 7-5, 6-2 on the clay courts of Monte-Carlo. This is just their second showdown on grass; Federer scored a 6-3, 3-6, 6-4, 6-3 in the 2012 Wimbledon semifinals.

So far at this particular event, Federer has been the superior player. The 32-year-old Swiss has taken out Paolo Lorenzi, Gilles Muller, Santiago Giraldo, Tommy Robredo, Stanislas Wawrinka, and Milos Raonic while dropping only one set to Wawrinka in the process. Federer is coming off an especially impressive 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 beatdown of Raonic in Friday’s semifinals. The former world No. 1 is now 40-7 for his 2014 campaign.

Djokovic has not quite had things on cruise-control to Federer’s extent. The top seed defeated Andrey Golubev, Radek Stepanek (in a fourth-set tiebreaker), Gilles Simon, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Marin Cilic (in five sets) and Grigor Dimitrov (in a fourth-set tiebreaker) to book his place in the championship match. Djokovic trailed Dimitrov 6-3 in the fourth-set ‘breaker, but he ultimately saved four set points before getting the job done and avoiding a decider. Djokovic has a borderline dominant 36-4 record to his credit this year.

Over the years, however, it is obviously Federer who has enjoyed far superior grass-court results. The 17-time Grand Slam champion is 73-8 for his career at Wimbledon and he has captured the title seven times. Djokovic is a pale-by-comparison 44-8. He won it all in 2011 but he had been to only two previous finals prior to this occasion.

“His level has been very high, I have to say,” Djokovic said of Federer. “I’ve been watching him in a few matches. I mean, with his immense experience of winning this title so many times and, of course, from being so dominant in men’s tennis for over a decade, that helps in the approach of the Grand Slam final.”

“I think for me it’s really important to stay aggressive against him, and especially here at Wimbledon it’s simpler how we need to play against each other,” Federer noted. “It’s not like on a slow court where you can maybe maneuver the other guy around so much. I think on grass it’s a bit more straightforward and we’re both aware of that.”

Such straightforwardness would favor Federer, who generally wants to keep points short against Djokovic and win with first-strike tennis. That is an endeavor more easily accomplished on grass than on any other surface. Federer has a Pete Sampras-like ability to serve his biggest and best at the most important such as on break points, and there is no reason to think anything will be different this time around. The No. 4 seed can call on that get-out-of-jail-free card almost at will. His experience in this setting and relative dominance on grass should see Federer through to yet another Wimbledon title.

Pick: Federer in 4

[polldaddy poll=8167775]

44 Comments on Wimbledon final preview and pick: Federer vs. Djokovic

  1. Well, I’m writing after the match, but hats off to both players. Both Fed and Nole represent everything that is best about our sport…so classy, so gracious. Eventhough I’ve always been a huge Fed fan, I’m proud of both players.

  2. Uncle toni thinks so !

    ” I’m sure Rafael will come back to win this tournament. He has already won 2 times and played three more finals and still has the quality to win again. ”

    ” This year has been different from the last, the last two editions Rafa was playing badly, partly because of his physical condition and the transition to grass which is never easy for a player. But in these days was fit and was playing good tennis, if he had beaten Kyrgios, he could beat anyone. ”

    ” Despite Rafa play better during the second week and his form was good, we met a great player who has the good fortune to play on the surface which enhances his game. Tackling an opponent like that Kyrgios in 4 sets 37 ace serves not easy. Even Boris Becker when he came here 17 years beat all thanks to an extraordinary service. “

    • Interesting quotes from UT. Yes, in a way it’s a shame because Rafa was really playing much better this year and his physical condition was ok. I really think, he could’ve gotten past Milos and then Roger.
      When Kyrgios won I also had Becker in mind. The big difference: Becker really went on to win the trophy after taking his first big scalps at the tourney. And he did it again the very next year against the No 1 of the world , Lendl. This repeat was one of Becker’s greatest feats IMO. Kyrgios is still along way from this.

      • @littlefoot,
        I do think that Rafa would have beaten Milos and Fed. He would have been in the final.

        As you pointed out, there is a huge difference between Kyrgios and Becker! Only time will tell if this guy does anything else worthwhile in tennis.

  3. Rafa is 605 points behind Nole in the Race to London. With a good second half, Rafa can still finish No. 1.

    He has less points to defend after the US Open than Nole.

    #InsideJoke

    • Well technically a Roger slam would be if someone beats him in the final of all four grand slams ! haha…but this is big nonetheless…

      Another evidence of how darn strong this era is …. Djokovic is a great champion and had it not been for two of the greatest players ever, Novak would have won so much more.

      The USO will be quite interesting. Novak has now revealed he was being plagued by self-doubts so this win would be huge. However, the total vanquishing of the demons will be done when he beats rafa in a slam because it has been rafa against whom Novak has struggled in slams the most since 2012 Aus open

      • Yes, the season leading up to the US Open will be most interesting. Can’t wait to find out, where the Big 3 1/2 will go from here:
        Will Roger be able to do some damage even without a …um, very benign draw? If his two sets of twins aren’t too much of a distraction, I think he will. The raquet change proved to be a winner (I’m still cross with Sampras, that he never dared to make this move) and he’s a lot more consistent than last year. But I don’t see him winning multiple trophies, let alone another slam. There are too many younger players, who finally seem to come into their own. And if Rafa and Novak are healthly, they will likely get the better of Roger. Rafa more than Novak, though. But maybe Roger can shine at Cincy.
        Will Novak go onto another 2011 like tear, now that he is fortified with a shining new slam trophy? Hopefully not, lol! But he will be a father soon. Let’s wait and see, how he handles that. And, as Vamosrafa pointed out, he still has to overcome Rafa at a slam. And he has to get to the final in order to do it. But I think, he will do very well for the rest of the season.
        Will Rafa finally be able to defend a hard court title? I certainly hope so. It’s getting more difficult each year, since the young ones finally seem to be able to close the gap. But, unlike most of the post Aussie season, Rafa seems to be healthy now and his serve, which was very iffy post Australia, picked up big time at Wimby. And the 9th RG win took a huge weight from his shoulders. As Sampras always said: A season with a slam win is a successful season. Novak’s Wimby title, being No 2 again and Roger’s slam count being within striking distance (thanks, Nole!) should give him plenty of motivation.
        As to Andy, I really don’t have a clue, where he is atm. Him doing better at RG than at Wimby? Losing to Dimi without winning at least a set? Strange. His back is fine now. No excuses. I don’t think, Mauresmo is right for him. Has nothing to do with her being a woman. But she didn’t have true grit as a player, or she would’ve won many more slams. And true grit is, what Andy needs. Lendl helped him there. I can’ see Mauresmo doing the same. I may be wrong. Time will tell, but I don’t see her lasting long as Andy’s coach. But I said the same about Becker and Novak, lol!

  4. From SI:

    Go figure

    143: Combined winners hit for Federer and Djokovic.

    56: Combined unforced errors.

    1948: The last time a player saved championship point in the Wimbledon final and came back to win (Robert Falkenburg). That record still stands.

    12: Times Federer and Djokovic have met at the majors, tying the record held by Djokovic and Rafael Nadal.

    2009: The last time a Slam final did not feature either Nadal or Andy Murray.

    4: Breaks of serve for Djokovic. Federer has been broken once in 89 games entering the final.

  5. This match was great for the same reason that 2008 and 1980 Wimbly’s we’re special.

    Great quote from Tiggy’s take and Nole:

    As Borg and Nadal were before him, Djokovic was put to the ultimate test in tennis—squandering a championship point at Wimbledon—and like them, he found the resilience to put it behind him.

    “I could have easily lost my concentration in the fifth and just handed him the win,” Djokovic said. “But I didn’t, and that’s why this win has a special importance to me mentally. Because I managed to not just win against my opponent, but win against myself.”

  6. I think that’s a revealing comment by Novak. It shows that he has been battling himself. I think awareness is key. He also said in one of his post-match interviews that when he took a bathroom break, he was yelling at himself – believe, believe in yourself! Rafa could have told him that’s what its all about.

  7. I thought I’ve seen it all. Seriously, Rafa fans worried that Djorkovic might not recover if he had lost another slam final??? I am sure this never crossed the minds of Federer fans, Djorkovic fans and Nadal haters when he was losing all those matches to Djorkovic in 2011, they would have been perfectly happy if Rafa never won another match!

    • Liz, you’ve said it. There are Nadal haters who pretend to be his fans but are always against him in any discussion.

      #fake fans
      #looking both ways

    • well, which rafa fan here is ‘worried’ that djokovic might not have recovered??? If someone gave their opinion by analyzing the situation that djokovic might not have recovered, what is the problem ?

      • @Vamosrafa, well said. These remarks have nothing to do with being any player’s fan. It’s called analysing the situation and stating facts. Besides, last time I looked, this was a tennis and and not a fan site.
        As a Rafafan I wasn’t worrying that another final loss might crush Novak, though exactlz that might’ve happened. But I’m worrying now, that he might go on another tear, lol! Hopefully Rafa and others can prevent that.

  8. Congrats, first to Fed for his luck in not meeting Rafa before the final and to Djoko for not meeting Rafa in the final 🙂

  9. Any opinion on below comment by a Rafan Gary Roy on ATP

    Federer is back big time. As a Rafa fan who has proclaimed Rafa as the GOAT i now may have been premature as what i saw today from Federer suggests he may be morphing into the most all round player ever seen. He still has weaknessses but crucially his serve was devastating, his bh was firing winners, if his FH had been more considtent he would have won. He is beginning to volley more and in 6 months when it all comes together he is going to be hard to stop on any surface, including clay. I am more woried about Federer as Rafa can handle djokovic’s best if playing well, but if Federer puts it all together as he did at times today, Rafa, Djokovic etc wont have a chance. Alot like rafa did losing AO2012, Federer served notice tody he is back. I am cr*pping myself. Uncle Toni better get Rafa backhand hitting more winners rather than a rally shot.

    once the emotion drains away and today’s match is analysed by the various players, Djokovic was the same as always, defensively very sound and consistent and moved well but shaky at big moments but granite like in his resilience. But there are weaknesses to go at for Rafa and a fit Del Potro. Federer’s bh was as good as ive seen it in about 8 years, he was taking it alot earlier and as such Rafa top spin will be negated. His volleys were excellent although he did often pick the wrong time and the wrong wing to go to the net. Against Djokovic always break the FH down, that will crumble under presure but Roger kept going to BH. But, Federer is chaanging his game and those aspects will improve. His serve was a monster. 29 aces against the greatest returner in the game is big news. What lost Roger the match wa…s his FH, it was too inconsistent, probaly because he has worked hard on all the other areas. Thing is, for me Fed FH when it is on is second only in history to Sampras’s. So, once he cuts out the errors on the FH and all those other areas are honed, i dont see him being beaten unless Rafa can improve his backhand. Rafa is aalso improving, his return of serve definitely getting better and his second serve was around 95 mph at wimbledon which is new so for me there are ncouraging signs but i think Federer is at a more advanced stage in the changes he is making. USO a proper 3 horse race now. But Federer definitely back in contention. He lasted 4 hours today, i didnt think he had it in him. He actually deserves the USO, then all 3 of the great players haevaa Major each.

  10. No comments again on Noles drama in the 5th..taking medical break..ankle damage..pointing to ankle when things go wrong..all fine when he wins the point.. He did all of that in AO 2012 final and scraped the win, he did it again here..It surely disturbed Feds momentm no doubt about it

  11. 2 things cost Fed the title..chipping and charging too much..Def a Egberg tactic but Novak not right opponent..he passed him so much ..

    Fed gave up coming to net alomost in 5th..he would never have beaten Nole from the baseline..He should have gone for all out attack in 5th which he did not..Ofcourse his serve let him dwn massively in last 2 games

  12. @Sanju, the analysis above about Federer’s game contains a kernel of thruth but is otherwise wildly exaggerating. It’s true that Roger plays much better than last season, and his innate talent is certainly still there. The raquet change has finally paid off and he is serving extremely well. But he can’t negate his age completely and nothing tells me, he will suddenly become a threat on clay again. Certainly not this season, lol!
    Roger was hailed as being really back at the Aussie Open, but when he ran into Rafa, who was hampered by a blister, he failed to win even a set. Roger has always looked good against Novak, and yesterday he was playing him on his favorite surface, having had a very easy path to the final (unlike Novak). Novak isn’t an exceptional grass player and spent 5 hours more on court than Roger. You could as well argue, that despite all that Roger still wasn’t able to put Novak away.
    But it’s certainly true, that Roger is much more dangereous than last year. It will be interesting to see, how he will fare on the hard courts. As I said above, Cincy might be his opportunity to shine.

    • @littlefoot,

      I agree with you. Whoever wrote that comment was reading way too much into Fed’s performance in this final. Obviously, Fed is doing better than last season. He had nowhere to go but up. But as you said so well, there is no solution to getting old in sports. Every great champion has to get old. That will continue. Fed is not suddenly going to beat Rafa in slams. It’s true that this was Fed’s best surface and Novak’s worst surface.

      I don’t see Fed being able to beat Rafa or Novak in a slam final anymore.

  13. blablabla,, here we go again.. Fed is back, he’s the greatest, he’s skill is better than ever, this and that… remind me again next time he’s packing his bags after losing to Rafa

  14. RT @juanjosetennis: ‘Novak Djokovic now has 2 Wimbledon titles. Just 1 US Open title. And no French Open titles.”

  15. I hope I am not starting an argument with this article:

    “3. Wimbledon crowds REALLY don’t love Novak

    I already said this earlier in the week and I’m just going to repeat it, because it was evident again in the final. The crowd were behind Federer all the way through the final. Not as aggressively as they were for Murray last year (not possible!) but they were pro-Fed non-the-less. It must be difficult for Novak to see it as Pro-InsertName rather than anti-Novak because, let’s face it, it’s starting to feel a little anti-Novak. -”

    See more at: http://www.changeovertennis.com/things-learned-finals-weekend-2014-wimbledon/#sthash.KTEygsa4.dpuf

  16. Well, it ain’t a secret that Fed is idolised at Wimby. Besides, Novak’s ever-changing demeanor is not to everyone’s liking

    • “……..Novak’s ever-changing demeanor….”

      Bingo! Now I know why I cannot quite place him: will the real Novak please stand up?

  17. I see him as a nice guy and a terrible opponent, he’s just a little immature in the way he handles his emotions on court. Maybe he doesn’t bear success and fame as well as take Fed or Rafa. Also his camp is a tad too belligerent for a tennis entourage, what do u think?

    • I loved the pictures of Popsi and Sock celebrating winning the doubles title. The sheer joy and wonderment on their faces were a delight to watch. Watching Djokovic I always have the feeling he is taking a sadistic delight in having beaten his opponent rather than the win itself. And yes, his entourage’s reactions heighten this impression.

  18. Shirling@3:08pm

    You have hit the nail on the head. Federer has the carefully cultivated, well mannered ‘anybody for tennis’ image that sits well with the traditional Wimbledon audience. I doubt they will ever totally embrace Djokovic no matter how hard he tries: I think they instinctively mistrust his chameleon nature and see through his antics.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.