Wimbledon final preview and pick: Federer vs. Djokovic

There were more than a few surprises en route to the Wimbledon title match, but Sunday’s finale at the All-England Club features a marquee matchup between Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer. Djokovic is bidding for his second Wimbledon winner’s trophy, while Federer is looking to extend his record to 18 Grand Slam triumphs.

Before this fortnight even started, some said the 2014 installment of Wimbledon would be Federer’s last best chance to win an 18th major title. While that assertion may have been up for debate two weeks ago, it’s hard to argue that now. After all, Federer is one win away from more glory at the All-England Club and his opponent in Sunday’s final is not named Rafael Nadal.

Still, though, it is a formidable adversary. Novak Djokovic is a respectable 16-18 lifetime against Federer and the Serb has won four of their last six meetings dating back to the fall of 2012. They have faced each three times this season; Federer prevailed 3-6, 6-3, 6-2 in Dubai, Djokovic won a 3-6, 6-3, 7-6(3) Indian Wells thriller, and Federer beat a hobbled Djokovic 7-5, 6-2 on the clay courts of Monte-Carlo. This is just their second showdown on grass; Federer scored a 6-3, 3-6, 6-4, 6-3 in the 2012 Wimbledon semifinals.

So far at this particular event, Federer has been the superior player. The 32-year-old Swiss has taken out Paolo Lorenzi, Gilles Muller, Santiago Giraldo, Tommy Robredo, Stanislas Wawrinka, and Milos Raonic while dropping only one set to Wawrinka in the process. Federer is coming off an especially impressive 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 beatdown of Raonic in Friday’s semifinals. The former world No. 1 is now 40-7 for his 2014 campaign.

Djokovic has not quite had things on cruise-control to Federer’s extent. The top seed defeated Andrey Golubev, Radek Stepanek (in a fourth-set tiebreaker), Gilles Simon, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Marin Cilic (in five sets) and Grigor Dimitrov (in a fourth-set tiebreaker) to book his place in the championship match. Djokovic trailed Dimitrov 6-3 in the fourth-set ‘breaker, but he ultimately saved four set points before getting the job done and avoiding a decider. Djokovic has a borderline dominant 36-4 record to his credit this year.

Over the years, however, it is obviously Federer who has enjoyed far superior grass-court results. The 17-time Grand Slam champion is 73-8 for his career at Wimbledon and he has captured the title seven times. Djokovic is a pale-by-comparison 44-8. He won it all in 2011 but he had been to only two previous finals prior to this occasion.

“His level has been very high, I have to say,” Djokovic said of Federer. “I’ve been watching him in a few matches. I mean, with his immense experience of winning this title so many times and, of course, from being so dominant in men’s tennis for over a decade, that helps in the approach of the Grand Slam final.”

“I think for me it’s really important to stay aggressive against him, and especially here at Wimbledon it’s simpler how we need to play against each other,” Federer noted. “It’s not like on a slow court where you can maybe maneuver the other guy around so much. I think on grass it’s a bit more straightforward and we’re both aware of that.”

Such straightforwardness would favor Federer, who generally wants to keep points short against Djokovic and win with first-strike tennis. That is an endeavor more easily accomplished on grass than on any other surface. Federer has a Pete Sampras-like ability to serve his biggest and best at the most important such as on break points, and there is no reason to think anything will be different this time around. The No. 4 seed can call on that get-out-of-jail-free card almost at will. His experience in this setting and relative dominance on grass should see Federer through to yet another Wimbledon title.

Pick: Federer in 4

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