Wimbledon final preview and pick: Federer vs. Djokovic

There were more than a few surprises en route to the Wimbledon title match, but Sunday’s finale at the All-England Club features a marquee matchup between Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer. Djokovic is bidding for his second Wimbledon winner’s trophy, while Federer is looking to extend his record to 18 Grand Slam triumphs.

Before this fortnight even started, some said the 2014 installment of Wimbledon would be Federer’s last best chance to win an 18th major title. While that assertion may have been up for debate two weeks ago, it’s hard to argue that now. After all, Federer is one win away from more glory at the All-England Club and his opponent in Sunday’s final is not named Rafael Nadal.

Still, though, it is a formidable adversary. Novak Djokovic is a respectable 16-18 lifetime against Federer and the Serb has won four of their last six meetings dating back to the fall of 2012. They have faced each three times this season; Federer prevailed 3-6, 6-3, 6-2 in Dubai, Djokovic won a 3-6, 6-3, 7-6(3) Indian Wells thriller, and Federer beat a hobbled Djokovic 7-5, 6-2 on the clay courts of Monte-Carlo. This is just their second showdown on grass; Federer scored a 6-3, 3-6, 6-4, 6-3 in the 2012 Wimbledon semifinals.

So far at this particular event, Federer has been the superior player. The 32-year-old Swiss has taken out Paolo Lorenzi, Gilles Muller, Santiago Giraldo, Tommy Robredo, Stanislas Wawrinka, and Milos Raonic while dropping only one set to Wawrinka in the process. Federer is coming off an especially impressive 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 beatdown of Raonic in Friday’s semifinals. The former world No. 1 is now 40-7 for his 2014 campaign.

Djokovic has not quite had things on cruise-control to Federer’s extent. The top seed defeated Andrey Golubev, Radek Stepanek (in a fourth-set tiebreaker), Gilles Simon, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Marin Cilic (in five sets) and Grigor Dimitrov (in a fourth-set tiebreaker) to book his place in the championship match. Djokovic trailed Dimitrov 6-3 in the fourth-set ‘breaker, but he ultimately saved four set points before getting the job done and avoiding a decider. Djokovic has a borderline dominant 36-4 record to his credit this year.

Over the years, however, it is obviously Federer who has enjoyed far superior grass-court results. The 17-time Grand Slam champion is 73-8 for his career at Wimbledon and he has captured the title seven times. Djokovic is a pale-by-comparison 44-8. He won it all in 2011 but he had been to only two previous finals prior to this occasion.

“His level has been very high, I have to say,” Djokovic said of Federer. “I’ve been watching him in a few matches. I mean, with his immense experience of winning this title so many times and, of course, from being so dominant in men’s tennis for over a decade, that helps in the approach of the Grand Slam final.”

“I think for me it’s really important to stay aggressive against him, and especially here at Wimbledon it’s simpler how we need to play against each other,” Federer noted. “It’s not like on a slow court where you can maybe maneuver the other guy around so much. I think on grass it’s a bit more straightforward and we’re both aware of that.”

Such straightforwardness would favor Federer, who generally wants to keep points short against Djokovic and win with first-strike tennis. That is an endeavor more easily accomplished on grass than on any other surface. Federer has a Pete Sampras-like ability to serve his biggest and best at the most important such as on break points, and there is no reason to think anything will be different this time around. The No. 4 seed can call on that get-out-of-jail-free card almost at will. His experience in this setting and relative dominance on grass should see Federer through to yet another Wimbledon title.

Pick: Federer in 4

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74 Comments on Wimbledon final preview and pick: Federer vs. Djokovic

  1. That was not good from Novak. He’s had this trouble closing out matches on a number of occasions. So now he has to try and win it in the fifth set.

  2. Whata did I tell you all? 🙂

    Novaak should have wrapped it in 3..had set point in 1st too..goofed up..4th set again he should have closed it..choked again ..

    Finally did it

    Congrats Novak

    Great job Fed in fighting hard..you really kept coming back..was a high quality final..thoroughly enjoyed it

    RITB..if the draw was fixed as yo guys alledge..karma right here hit back..told you all..however I am not commenting on any draw fixed..no proof..so no comments

    • @Sanju,

      Yes! The so-called rigged draw did not get Fed the win, did it? That’s why I don’t buy it. It has to happen on the court, as Rafa has said so well in the past.

    • @Sanju, relax bro. I am not trying to convince you to my point of view that draws are rigged. I believe they are, you don’t. Agree to disagree? I’m good with that! 🙂

  3. Congrats to Nole. I was not emotionally invested in this final, but still enjoyed it. Great tennis from both and nice to see a final go 5 sets.

    • I thoroghly enjoyed it..no nerves..enjoyed the tennis and the fight..Missed Rafa on court..would love to c him holding the trophy again at Wimby

      • Same here. I was relaxed and I would have been happy with either one winning. Rafa in the final? Totally different story!!

  4. Cmon Rafa buck up..Its good that you No 2 now..you anywaay play better when yo are No 2..go for it..gap still 3 to chase.

  5. Juan José Vallejo ‏@juanjosetennis ·49 secs
    When Petra Kvitova wins Wimbledon…Novak Djokovic wins Wimbledon. Sports are funny.

    I told too yest 🙂

  6. Jelena Ristic ‏@JelenaRisticNDF ·10 mins
    Journey is more important than the destination and this was hell of a journey my love!!!! @DjokerNole #Wimbledon2014 #Champion

  7. Fed looked okay post match but this will sting for sure. He wont get such an opportunity for a Gs again.

    He has now lost on his fav surface to both Rafa and Novak..It will surely hurt a bit esp this loss

    Novak should be mighty relieved he won this. If he hd lost this, he wold never have recovered as he would have lost this from a winning position.

    • That tweet is crap.I read it too.The final was fully entertaining and high quality..That person is too consumed by Rafa to make such a statement.

      • @Sanju,

        I agree! I almost didn’t bother to watch, but I was glad that I did. Both guys played well and showed some heart and also great tennis. I didn’t care who won, so it was much easier to watch.

        Of course, I missed Rafa being there.

    • Well.. what else do you expect. “Rafaholics™ (@Rafaholics)” kind of gives it away!!
      The match was really good from the get go.

  8. abhirf..Commies..Your man played his heart out and fought valiantly

    Novak revealed to Dke and Duchess that Jelena is 6 months preg..TV captured it 🙂

  9. Congrats Nole!!! You deserved it.

    What a Final, Epic, best of all time?

    FED- Proud of you, thanks for the great entertainment!
    Enjoy your life.

    • Not best of all time..that honour still goes to 2008 Wimby final..nothing will come close to that..This ones surely in list of epics of Gs finals for sure

  10. Great match from both guys. Roger played better than I thought he would and better than I’ve seen him play in two years since he won Wimbly in 2012. Many fantastic points particularly in the first set. Fed’s serving was ridiculous in the 3rd set with so many aces and service winners.

    Nole could have won in three but got tight in 1st and 4th sets when it mattered. Crowd was obviously pro-Fed but were respectful nontheless (unlike RG crowd).

    Nole deserved it more than Roger. Roger didn’t really play anyone who could test him the way Nole had. Draw was definitely fixed but Nole battled through.

    Very deserving.

    Hope Rafa has a great second half. I’m glad he’s still within three slams of the record!

    • Nole definitely deserved it more. He really should’ve done it in three or four sets anyway. And his way to the final was definitely way more challenging than Roger’s. Can’t help feeling,that Rafa would’ve done a good job here if he had cleared that Aussie wildcard hurdle. No disrespect to Milos, but I do think, Rafa would’ve gotten the better of him in the quarters.

      • Yeah, couldn’t help feeling that virtually everybody, who could possibly trouble Rafa, was packed into his quarter. Would never have guessed, though, that the young wild card would do him in. Oh well, better than Rosol again, no?

    • hawkeye63@July 6, 2014 at 6:23 pm
      —Crowd was obviously pro-Fed but were respectful nontheless—

      They used to be disrespectful.
      The Telegraph, 10 Jul 2013 ¤¤ Novak Djokovic’s girlfriend says Andy Murray supporters made Wimbledon difficult viewing.
      Jelena Ristic, the girlfriend of Novak Djokovic, says she felt uncomfortable watching the Wimbledon final as the crowd were all cheering against the Serbian player. ¤¤

      • Wimbledon 2013 was more than just a case of home crowd support. The whole damn nation was willing Andy across the finish line – not just the 15,000 people on Centre Court. I remember thinking it was pretty dumb of Djokovic’s girlfriend to complain that
        nobody was cheering for ‘her man’. She seemed unaware of the historical significance of this particular final. Given that Andy was on the brink of ending the 77 year wait for a British Wimbledon champion If you watch the last game of the match there is not a vestige of anti Djokovic behaviour from the crowd.

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lww-hJ4LdTo

  11. Hi guys! I thoroughly enjoyed this. Congrats to both for a memorable final. Would never have thought, that one day I might root so hard for the Djoker. But being German (and being more invested in soccer these days 😉 ), I couldn’t help feeling elated to see Becker win against Edberg, just for old times sake, lol! This coaching job has done Becker a whole lot of good. If it really helped Nole is debatable, though. He almost choked the match away for no good reason at all.
    Novak being No 1 again is alright with me. He would’ve gotten there sooner or later anyway in the coming 2 month. And I care more for Rafa’s overall slam count these days. For a change Novak helped Rafa out here big time (after taking away far too many slam trophies from him in 2011/12). The Rogerlove and GOAT talk wouldn’t have stopped for month on end, and Rafa’s difficult mission to reach Roger’s slam count would’ve become even more difficult. Also, as a former Sampras fan I feel glad somehow, that Roger has at least to share the Wimby trophy count with Pistol Pete.
    This was probably Roger’s very last chance to win a slam. He really will not get any more from now on. The young guns are seriously catching up even at Wimby.But kudos to Roger for this great effort. I don’t know if the draw was rigged or not. Haven’t given it much thought. But Roger won his matches fair and square and gave Nole a run for his money. And Rafa lost his match fair and square against Young Nick. No two ways about it. I doubt somehow,that Rafa will ever win another Wimby trophy, as much as I wish he would. Winning this insane number of RG trophies takes too much out of him these days. But another US Open or even Aussie Open besides another RG cup? Hell, why not? Novak’s win keeps 17 slams still within reach for Rafa. That, and being No 2 again should give him plenty of motivation for the coming month.
    Vamos!

      • @Augusta, Rafa certainly can win another Wimby, IF everything falls into place: all body parts healthy, benign draw without young and ambitious 6 foot plus hard hitters in the first week (all of Rafa’s recent grass court losses came against nobodies who instantly became somebodies after beating Rafa – and lost in the very next round), good weather, open roof… But each year it becomes a little less likely that all those things come together, and each year he’s a little older. Especially the part about his body being completely healthy become more difficult every year after a most likely grueling clay season.

    • Well said littlefoot with the exception that, given a balanced draw, I think Rafa can win Wimbly still.

      Rafa does some of his best work when he’s No. 2!

      • littlefoot ( at 6:52 pm),
        –Rafa’s recent grass court losses came against nobodies—

        Do you read only his match results??? Don’t you read anything else about him???

      • Well, Augusta, why such a harsh tone? I’m speaking about the the time from 2012 onwards, not before of course. Rosol, Darcis, Kyrgios, Brown were all ranked quite lowly, and were not exactly household names, when Rafa lost to them. Rafa made their names, so to speak. Only Kohlschreiber at Halle 2012 had some clout at the time.

      • Rafa’s last loss on grass against a top player dates back to his loss in the 2011 final against Novak. After that all losses came against motivated and hard hitting nobodies (maybe Kyrgios will become somebody some day). It’s harsh, but it’s a fact. Even if the condition of Rafa’s knees and exhaustion after another RG title played a big part in it.

      • Yes, agree, hawkeye, read my comment below. Rafa was in good shape. That’s why this loss hurts. Much more was possible. When commenting about hard hitting nobodies, I had more in mind, that apparently they are the most dangerous species for Rafa on grass these days, exactly because he doesn’t know them. Rafa rarely loses twice to the same player. Novak is the notable exeption now and then.

        • Well I think they are dangerous for everybody for sure IMO no?

          Let’s say a generic hard hitter has a 20% chance. Therefore if there is only one in your quarter then odds are you are ok.

          However, if you have to face three of these guys then all of a sudden the odds become roughly 50% that one of these guys is gonna take you out, no?

          In the last two years it was the knees for sure but this year it was the draw

          Roger only had old guys and clay court specialists to play.

          While Nole’s draw was difficult it was manageable as he had perhaps just Cilic who is a hard hitter and he almost lost!

          The difference between Rafa and the other top four isn’t that he handles the hard hitters worse but that he has to face so many of them.

          I don’t remember ever seeing Roger, Nole or Muzz have to face three or more hard hitters like this but it has happened “coincidently” to Rafa on several occasions. I’m serious is true!

          #ByDesign

      • ^^^Roger only had old guys and clay court specialists to play in his quarter.

        plus Stanisfluke (but really).

        Prior to the final, Fed had spent just 10 hrs compared to 15 hrs for Nole.

        I don’t think Roger would have survived Rafa’s quarter and Nole would have struggled as well.

        If Roger’s quarter wasn’t soft, then I don’t think he could have played as well as he did today at almost 33 years of age.

        Regardless, it was a great match to see.

        #ByDesign

      • @hawkeye, do you think, Big Nick was even meant to be on the designers’ big hitters special menu or did he simply crash the party? He should’ve been out after the first round or two. That still flummoxes me a bit. Rafa had survived three potential pitfalls quite nicely only to fall to the guy who should’ve been legally home by then.
        You’re right about the lottery part of playing the big hitters on grass. If the chances are 50/50 and you play several in a row, chances are, one of them willl take you out. For the top players (including Rafa)chances are much better than 50/50 of course, since many of the big hitters are kinda immobile and can’t do other things quite well. Still, one of them might strike the jack pot for one day. Do you remember the Australian guy Wayne Arthur ? Very tall, non descript face, mousy hair, huge serve and not much else. He routinely used to wreck havoc at Wimby (but nowhere else) in the 90ies.

      • Once he qualified, yes, he was “randomly” put in a qualifiers spot in Rafa’s quarter.

        Gasquet should have taken him out but the more hard hitters in Rafa’s draw, the better for anyone hoping for a Rog Muzza final (the latter of who also had a relatively cushy draw “coincidentally”).

        Yes, I believe the draws are heavily influenced and not purely random based on experience. ESPN had an article that virtually proved this to be the case.

        http://espn.go.com/espn/otl/story/_/id/6850893/espn-analysis-finds-top-seeds-tennis-us-open-had-easier-draw-statistically-likely

    • @littlefoot,

      I feel much the same as you regarding Rafa winning another Wimbledon. I think it’s just too tough at this point after winning at RG. I remember how he fought valiantly to come back from two sets to one down at the 2010 Wimbledon against Haase and Petz. At that point no one seemed to think Rafa had a chance to win.

      I was really upset when Rafa lost the 2011 Wimbledon to Novak. I wanted that third title and also a third channel slam. But given that he has been knocked out early the last three years, I just don’t see it happening. I thought that Rafa was ready this time on the grass. His inability to read the serve of Krygios is what cost him the match. He said it himself. Rafa always keeps it real.

      I am still not okay with Rafa losing in the fourth round. It’s been tough to handle.

      • Native New Yorker, good that you watched the final. It certainly was worthwhile. Besides being Rafafans, we are tennis fans after all 😉
        Time will tell what Rafa still can do at Wimby. But many things (maybe too many things) have to come together for him for having a good run. Next year there will be one more week between RG and Wimby. That might certainly help.

    • hawkeye63@July 6, 2014 at 9:05 pm
      —against him [Rafa] just like the RG crowd—

      You are hopelessly stuck in the myths created by the Federazzi.
      Creating myths that the crowd doesn’t love Rafa is one of the Federazzi’s weapons against Rafa.
      😆

      • No. My opinion from what I’ve witnessed with my own eyes and ears is no myth.

        Many people on this Rafan heavy site share this opinion.

        The RG crowd have been very disrespectful and classless towards Rafa. This is not a knock against Rafa (which you seem to think it is). It is a knock against the classless RG crowd.

        #HowManyTimes!!!!
        #MoveOn

  12. what a big champion is novak. He is an all-time great.

    Federer, well, played quite well for patches. He got dominated for most of the match but he put up such an exemplary fight in the fourth set.

    How poor is fed’s 5th set record !

  13. Well… I’m gutted to say the least..
    But, I’m now even more proud of Fed after this match. He had no business winning that 1st and 4th set. Nole was really at his bloody best today, serving with such poise, never seen him play better on grass than this.
    Was an excellent final with great shotmaking. I still think Fed’s FH let him down big time today. He also didn’t used the slice, drop shots or the body serve. It was like the match was being played on a HC. But maybe that was all because Nole was relentless with his groundstrokes.
    That game in the 3rd set will be really memorable for me… 4 aces in a row against the best returner of serve..
    Many great smashes by Fed and some really slick passing shots by Nole.

    Congrats Nole! (He definitely needed this more and the emotions post win showed it)

    Congrats Fed! You played like a champ out there today!
    Let’s bring on the USO!

    #6

  14. My only problem ATM is : Where the hell were you Nole for the past 1.5 yrs. Why did you chose to show up today, when you didn’t bothered to in the past 5-6 slams.

      • abhirf ( at 7:37 pm),

        Djoko was beaten better players:
        RG 2013 – Djoko was beaten by Rafa
        Wimb 2013 – Djoko was beaten by Murray
        USO 2013 – Djoko was beaten by Rafa
        AO 2014 – Djoko was beaten by Wawrinka (who defeated Fed in Monte Carlo)
        RG 2014 – Djoko was beaten by Rafa

      • All losses except his Wimby’13 and USO ’13 losses were the ones that intrigued me the most. He just never really showed up in those matches and handed over those matches in a platter.

      • Never really showed up? lol… he showed up big time in the RG 2013 SF and played pretty solid against wawrinka in the AO qtr until before the last game.

      • And when he won the first set against Rafa at RG, it seemed all good for him but then Rafa raised his level tremendously. I still believe that djokovic has doubts when it comes to Rafa.

      • probably got my statement wrong..
        I don’t think Nole showed up at all in the Wimby’13 and USO’ 13 finals. He went down in those matches without putting up much resistance handing over the title on a platter.
        Other losses he at least showed the fight. USO’12, FO’13, AO’14.
        This years RG final was wierd for me. For me both the players looked to be playing really bad for the major part of the match. It was probably the worst match (quality wise) I have seen them play against each other.

    • Well, Novak did show up at the slams, plenty of times, no? More regularly than any other player. He simply ran into a better or more inspired player in those finals (and a semi that was a final at last year’s RG), with the exception of last year’s Wimby final. Against Andy he never really woke up for some reason. He may have been bamboozled by the vicious No 77 and the ghost of Fred Perry to boot, lol!
      But you can be more than proud of your guy. He put up a terrific fight today.
      If Novak had lost this one, too, it might’ve crushed him for a long time, though.

      • Lets not forget the long and physical battle that Delpo dealt Nole in the semis plus the final last year was a very hot day. I think this had an influence on Nole’s performance also.

    • We rafans felt the same in 2011 when he decided to wake up suddenly:) at least he won one slam at feds expense after so many at rafas. The one thing that is worrisome is he does not go on a 2011 like tear again

    • abhirf (at 7:37 pm),
      —Why did you chose to show up today—

      In the battle against Rafa, Fed fans have put their hope in Djoko . Karma boomeranged back.

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