U.S. Open SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Berrettini

Rafael Nadal will battle surprise semifinalist Matteo Berrettini on Friday as the Spaniard goes on the hunt for Grand Slam title number 19. Berrettini is coming off a five-set quarterfinal win over Gael Monfils on Wednesday night.

There are two matches between Rafael Nadal and a 19th Grand Slam title. If the Spaniard lifts the trophy on Sunday evening, he will pull within one slam title of record-holder Roger Federer, who currently stands at 20. But to get there, he has to go through the in-form young Italian Matteo Berrettini. And while it’s true that Berrettini’s section of the draw was wide open thanks to early loses by Dominic Thiem, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Nick Kyrgios, the world No. 25 played great tennis to earn his first semifinal berth at a major.

Berrettini started his run against Richard Gasquet and also dispatched the likes of Andrey Rublev to earn his spot in the quarterfinals. But it was a magnificent five-set win over Gael Monfils that was the most impressive effort perhaps of the entire fortnight. The 24th seed gutted out a 3-6, 6-3, 6-2, 3-6, 7-6(5) win over the Frenchman that had the entirety of Arthur Ashe Stadium on its feet. Unfortunately, it also means that he participated in a four-hour slugfest right before he has to play Nadal.

Nadal for his part had an uneventful path to the quarters. He dropped a single set to Marin Cilic in the round of 16, but he bounced back to dismantle the Croat in the fourth set. But it was his straight-set win over Diego Schwartzman in the quarters that was anything but routine. The Argentine has a knack of pushing Nadal hard when they meet at big tournaments, and Thursday night was no exception. Schwartzman battled back from a double break down in both sets one and two, while the three-time U.S. Open champion struggled with the humidity, dehydration, and slight cramping at the tail end of the second set. It’s a credit to Nadal that he managed to find a way to win in straights, as he sent Schwartzman packing 6-4, 7-5, 6-2.

Berrettini is big hitter with plenty of impressive shots that could challenge Nadal at least for a while. He has proven that he can shake off periods of poor play and come back to win. However, he’s never been to this stage of a major before and he’s certainly never faced a champion of Nadal’s caliber. In fact, this will be his first-ever match against the Spaniard. Combined with the possible fatigue of that lengthy match against Monfils, it looks like Nadal is going to earn a chance at a fourth U.S. Open trophy on Sunday.

Cheryl pick: Nadal in 4

Ricky pick: Nadal in 3

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32 Comments on U.S. Open SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Berrettini

  1. Wow guys, what happening here! I was afraid of this going to a tie-break!!
    If Rafa lose first set then he will have to regroup and play better in second set bcos he missed too many bp opportunities so he’s paying for that!!

    • @ Jim

      Hasn’t Nadal won enough?
      Who is to say he has? As long as he is playing tennis then why should he not win? What’s the point of playing to lose?

      It would be good to see some others rise to the occasion.
      True, so let them! No one is going to give them the win on a platter, they have to earn it!

      What’s so important about Nadal.
      Do I really need to answer that, bcos i have a very strong suspicion that you already know the answer to that!

      VAMOS Rafa!!!!

  2. Wow, Rafa! What a scary TB and I thought Rafa was going to lose it! Rafa’s Houdini act is just second to none!

    First set in the bag. Vamos Rafa!

  3. Wow!! Rafa did it!!! Hopefully he’ll relax and play his best tennis!

    But props to Matteo!!! He has played well to push Rafa to such a tight first set!

  4. I don’t know how he pulled out that TB. Unreal!

    Rafa, please try to convert these break points. It will make your life easier! And your fans!

    • Nny,

      Berrettini’s weakness is his backhand but he’s quick to prepare and run around it and use his forehand. But Rafa tracked it down beautifully in that tie break. It was good!!

      • Elizabeth,

        Yes. Great observation. I see how Berrettini runs around the backhand to use his forehand.

        I watched the tiebreak in my recording. So I did get to see it after the fact.

        Rafa is making hard work of this. He needs to hold that break!

  5. Rafa really squanders all the BPs. In this third game of the second set, he’s just hitting all the time to Berrettini’s BH that his opponent is all so prepared for it, should hit a FHDTL to opponent’s FH to get the break! Berrettini isn’t that quick when made to run!

    Rafa always making hard work of his matches, very hard to watch him play live. He squandered 8 or 9 BP chances, some were winnable ones.

    • Yeah Lucky!…I really wondering why Rafa didn’t make Berretini run from sides 2 sides considering Berretini has a huge physical…he also not very quick on court..that way he will be tired easily…and after almost 4hrs in his match b4,imo it really easy to break his will…

  6. I actually don’t think Rafa is playing all that well; maybe too much respect for his opponent, esp the big serve and big FH.

    Berrettini as expected serves big and hits hard and manages to save all those BPs.

  7. What a nerve racking 1st set’ I’m exhausted just watching! Love the way one can see Rafa re-calibrating what he has to do. Felt almost sorry for Berrettini – he deserved to have won the first set after taking Rafa to the wirel in the tie break.

    • ed,

      You’re here! That first set was hard on the nerves. It is true that you can see Rafa thinking and making adjustments.

      • NNY, that’s why I love that Medvedev is Rafa’s opponent in the final. While their games are very different, two players with a very high tennis IQ will test each other on Sunday.

  8. Rafa, come on. Focus. Need a solid serve and get this 2nd set in the bag.

    Guessed there would be at least one TB. I do like this young Italian. He’s not as balanced as Medvedev tho.

    Got the 2nd set! Vamos Rafa – get this done in 3.

  9. Rafa’s BH DTL is so terrible, more errors than landing on target! This may be why he’s losing to Djoko so often on non clay surfaces.

    Schwartzman and Berrettini are really very different players; Rafa has to overpower Schwartzman and not let him have too many chances to retrieve shots as he’s quick. Against Berrettini who is so powerful but isn’t that quick around the court, Rafa has to make run.

    Yes, second set in the bag, with only one break of serve.

  10. Matteo’s level of confidence has dropped off from the first set. Still trying the dropper. BP

    Rafa has the best ROS of anyone atm. Imo.

  11. Well, Berrettini has put a great account of himself so far I think. Interesting stat I heard about Nadal during the match; his return games won has been better than his clay court average(?). There is still work to be done though

    • Rafa’s return stats on hardcourt better than his clay court average?? Real tennis fans know of course that Rafa is one of the best hardcourt players of his generation, and he made the finals of both hardcourt slams this year. But that’s strange nevertheless. The reason could be that Rafa had a below-his-best clay court season and only gathered steam in Rome.

  12. Real shame about that first set. To have two sets points, one on your serve, and not convert, just a shame. But Matteo is running out of gas, and it’s hard to see that he could have won the match even if he had taken that first set. Nadal is just too tough, though I think Medvedev will present a real challenge for him in the final.

    Still, the fat lady hasn’t sung yet. Andiamo Matteo!

  13. Rafa! LOL He’s on fire! He got the insurance break. About to win make the Final in great shape. Match point. Wow ….Rafa big smile and he is ready.

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