U.S. Open SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Berrettini

Rafael Nadal will battle surprise semifinalist Matteo Berrettini on Friday as the Spaniard goes on the hunt for Grand Slam title number 19. Berrettini is coming off a five-set quarterfinal win over Gael Monfils on Wednesday night.

There are two matches between Rafael Nadal and a 19th Grand Slam title. If the Spaniard lifts the trophy on Sunday evening, he will pull within one slam title of record-holder Roger Federer, who currently stands at 20. But to get there, he has to go through the in-form young Italian Matteo Berrettini. And while it’s true that Berrettini’s section of the draw was wide open thanks to early loses by Dominic Thiem, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Nick Kyrgios, the world No. 25 played great tennis to earn his first semifinal berth at a major.

Berrettini started his run against Richard Gasquet and also dispatched the likes of Andrey Rublev to earn his spot in the quarterfinals. But it was a magnificent five-set win over Gael Monfils that was the most impressive effort perhaps of the entire fortnight. The 24th seed gutted out a 3-6, 6-3, 6-2, 3-6, 7-6(5) win over the Frenchman that had the entirety of Arthur Ashe Stadium on its feet. Unfortunately, it also means that he participated in a four-hour slugfest right before he has to play Nadal.

Nadal for his part had an uneventful path to the quarters. He dropped a single set to Marin Cilic in the round of 16, but he bounced back to dismantle the Croat in the fourth set. But it was his straight-set win over Diego Schwartzman in the quarters that was anything but routine. The Argentine has a knack of pushing Nadal hard when they meet at big tournaments, and Thursday night was no exception. Schwartzman battled back from a double break down in both sets one and two, while the three-time U.S. Open champion struggled with the humidity, dehydration, and slight cramping at the tail end of the second set. It’s a credit to Nadal that he managed to find a way to win in straights, as he sent Schwartzman packing 6-4, 7-5, 6-2.

Berrettini is big hitter with plenty of impressive shots that could challenge Nadal at least for a while. He has proven that he can shake off periods of poor play and come back to win. However, he’s never been to this stage of a major before and he’s certainly never faced a champion of Nadal’s caliber. In fact, this will be his first-ever match against the Spaniard. Combined with the possible fatigue of that lengthy match against Monfils, it looks like Nadal is going to earn a chance at a fourth U.S. Open trophy on Sunday.

Cheryl pick: Nadal in 4

Ricky pick: Nadal in 3

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31 Comments on U.S. Open SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Berrettini

    • No 19 for Rafa on Sunday is certainly the most likely scenario, considering his potential opponents. And Rafa is the most experienced player. None of the others have ever been in a slam final. Berettini and Medvedev haven’t even been in a semis final before. But the matches have to be played first and Rafa has to earn the trophy. None of the three remaining players will be a pushover, and Rafa needs to stay healthy.

  1. 3-0 is definitely the safest option whenever Nadal is involved against players outside the top 3 because it’s such a fine line between being competitive and not. Nadal. It’s a rare event when Nadal gives anything away.

    Nadal 3-0 but hoping Berretinni produces something special.

  2. I like the angles on the Italian’s FH, but yeah, a win from him would probably be one of the biggest slam upsets in years.

    Rafa in 3

    • Berrettini is a player that I’ve grown to like. Had barely noticed him before US Open. I knew he was good but did not expect him to go this deep.
      That said.

      Rafa will be ready for him. Rafa in 3.

      • Don’t think anyone did, except maybe the Journo Uvaldo, lol. Whoever wins their USO bracket either got very lucky or had second sight! Keeping my fingers crossed for Rafa. As much as he sweats humidity is death for him – there’s only so much fluid the human body can take up per time unit – I think it’s a big reason he usually plays as slowly as possible. He can play faster – when he played Nishikori at RG this year Nishi was out of it late in the 3rd set and Rafa was playing at Kyrgios speed trying to get off the court before the rain came.

    • Stop frazzling, Sanju😉 You’re making all fellow Rafafans nervous. Whatever will be, will be…
      Rafa was in a very good mood after his match against Diego. Therefore I highly doubt that there was anything seriously wrong with him – nothing which a day of rest couldn’t fix! He really didn’t have a very tiring path into the semis. He had only one four-setter so far and a walkover in the second round. And in Toronto he didn’t overplay, either. His summer hardcourt schedule hasn’t been very tiring at all, and even with 33 Rafa is one of the toughest players on the tour. I think that Medvedev’s and Berettini’s bodies have been besten up much more.

  3. Nadal is in the driver’s seat to win his 19th GS, no question. I really don’t know what to expect from Berrettini and probably no one does. But it certainly looks as though the final will be a more difficult match than the SF, should Rafa get there. Unless the humidity really gets to him or Matteo somehow brings his best tennis ever, Nadal in 3.

  4. Berrettini just saved 3 break pounts which will be great experience fir him. The longer he survives Nadals barrage on his serve the better the chance he has of causing a boiler.

  5. Nadal applies so much pressure from the outset, the key is to stay with him as long as possible. If you can go thst you’re in with a chance

    • Yeah but Matteo is holding up well so far! Arggghh, can’t wait for this to be over already!! Im sooooooo nervous, sweating more than Rafa!! Lol!!

      • Yes he’s another 23 y/o. Full of confidence and plays without fear – like Medvedev. Dang…
        But this one doesn’t really have a backhand for a weapon. His serve and forehand are monster weapons.

        Oh dear me, Rafa was ready for the serve out wide but not the drop shot.
        Well the crowd is sure getting behind Rafa. Okay Rafa , set is on your racquet. Yessss attack the backhand!!

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