U.S. Open SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Berrettini

Rafael Nadal will battle surprise semifinalist Matteo Berrettini on Friday as the Spaniard goes on the hunt for Grand Slam title number 19. Berrettini is coming off a five-set quarterfinal win over Gael Monfils on Wednesday night.

There are two matches between Rafael Nadal and a 19th Grand Slam title. If the Spaniard lifts the trophy on Sunday evening, he will pull within one slam title of record-holder Roger Federer, who currently stands at 20. But to get there, he has to go through the in-form young Italian Matteo Berrettini. And while it’s true that Berrettini’s section of the draw was wide open thanks to early loses by Dominic Thiem, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Nick Kyrgios, the world No. 25 played great tennis to earn his first semifinal berth at a major.

Berrettini started his run against Richard Gasquet and also dispatched the likes of Andrey Rublev to earn his spot in the quarterfinals. But it was a magnificent five-set win over Gael Monfils that was the most impressive effort perhaps of the entire fortnight. The 24th seed gutted out a 3-6, 6-3, 6-2, 3-6, 7-6(5) win over the Frenchman that had the entirety of Arthur Ashe Stadium on its feet. Unfortunately, it also means that he participated in a four-hour slugfest right before he has to play Nadal.

Nadal for his part had an uneventful path to the quarters. He dropped a single set to Marin Cilic in the round of 16, but he bounced back to dismantle the Croat in the fourth set. But it was his straight-set win over Diego Schwartzman in the quarters that was anything but routine. The Argentine has a knack of pushing Nadal hard when they meet at big tournaments, and Thursday night was no exception. Schwartzman battled back from a double break down in both sets one and two, while the three-time U.S. Open champion struggled with the humidity, dehydration, and slight cramping at the tail end of the second set. It’s a credit to Nadal that he managed to find a way to win in straights, as he sent Schwartzman packing 6-4, 7-5, 6-2.

Berrettini is big hitter with plenty of impressive shots that could challenge Nadal at least for a while. He has proven that he can shake off periods of poor play and come back to win. However, he’s never been to this stage of a major before and he’s certainly never faced a champion of Nadal’s caliber. In fact, this will be his first-ever match against the Spaniard. Combined with the possible fatigue of that lengthy match against Monfils, it looks like Nadal is going to earn a chance at a fourth U.S. Open trophy on Sunday.

Cheryl pick: Nadal in 4

Ricky pick: Nadal in 3

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63 Comments on U.S. Open SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Berrettini

      • Common wisdom is that Rafa doesn’t like closed roofs because it turns an outdoor court into an indoor court. Rafa likes outdoor conditions much better because he’s able to adjust well to changing conditions. In Toronto it was very windy during the final against Medvedev, and one reason why the result was so lopsided could be that Rafa coped much better with the wind than Medvedev. However, Rafa also said that at the USO the closed roof is hardly noticeable. Whatever, on Sunday the roof will most likely be open☺

      • Tennis is a game of small margins. Fortune favours the brave and Rafa has been enough of it but we have all seen him be unlucky with injuries, resulting in gaps in confidence and a few unlucky losses in his career. As fans and more so perhaps with him towards the later part of his career, we want to see him win as many as possible and we want it so bad that it makes us nervous to see him even lose points 🙂

        But oh we are so different once he takes the win. Then its time to stop cursing him and talk about How great his forehands and backhands are 🙂

      • That’s because you’re not a Rafan 🙂 We’ve been through so much, and it often comes out of the blue. And we love him, in a way that can’t be comprehended by someone who just has a favorite whose play style they like. It’s a weird kind of love, fan love is. It’s truly altruistic, you just want your guy to be happy, I guess because that’s what gives you happiness. He loses, you mourn, he wins and it’s good for a week of walking on air, a longer afterglow and golden memories that last and last.

        • Ramara, couldn’t put it any better. That loss to Fed at Wimbledon hurt for ages. Still hurts but his success in Canada made me feel a whole lot better.

          • Those stupid loss at the AO to Fed and Novak hurt like hell still!!!! Don’t think ill ever get over it until Rafa wins another AO!

        • Yep well, it used to make me angry (on another blog) because I was not enough of a Nole fan. I know I’m a Nole fan – that’s all that matters. However I probably don’t rate the high standards to be a fan of any one player 🙁 I’m just glad I can post on tennis somewhere.

          Vamos Rafa #19
          He is the best right now.

          Hope Nole does the right things to get better. Love you, Nole ❤️

      • Maybe it’s just me reading this site too much, but certain Rafa fans are funny like that. He could play Medvedev’s grandma in the final and you’d still hear some say ‘oh yeah but she still hits a pretty mean forehand, Rafa has to be very careful here’.

        Of course there are Nadal fans who are painfully overconfident/trollish just like Novak/Fed fans (just see youtube tennis videos for evidence, ughhhh), but there seems to be more conservativeness/nerves in the Rafa fanbase overall. Perhaps they take after their favourite in that sense.

        • Spot on, thinwhiteduke 😊 Most Rafafans are a bit overcritical and underconfident. I don’t think it’s absurd at all to assume than fans adopt a little bit the mentality of their favorite player.
          That said – Medvedev is pretty dangerous, no???😏😏😏

          I really think that the worst surprise for Rafafans was Wawa’s win at the AO final 2014. Even the most pessimistic fans could hardly believe that Rafa lost that match. Yes, Wawrinka was playing extremely strong at the time, but so far Rafa hadn’t even lost a set to Wawrinka. Since then most of us don’t take anything completely for granted. And Rafa has always been a bit more injury prone than Fed or Novak – although they may also pick up more injuries as they get older.

          • Yes, I wouldn’t be surprised if the fans adopted the mentality & were more likely to be attracted to it in the first place. It’s true that all of the big three have blown golden chances, personally I feel Fed has squandered/missed as much as anyone, but many Rafa supporters no doubt feel he’s let the most slip by.

            Overall I don’t feel that Medvedev is all that dangerous to Rafa, though he is in good form and I like his confidence. Out of the big three his style is most suited to tackling Djokovic, the other two are too aggressive and less likely to be baffled by an unconventional all-court game. Djokovic also sometimes gets frustrated with players who hit an insane number of balls back and ‘mirror’ him.

            For Med to win this he’d have to serve lights out, then be able to put enough pressure on the Nadal serve. I don’t really think he can, and it should be done in 3-4 sets. My tip is three.

    • Yes it was and yes he is!

      I just love the way Rafa thinks. Anyone else would have been beating himself up about going down 0-4 in the TB. Rafa was thinking forward, as he always does, giving himself chances still.

  1. Here this stat: Rafa is only man in open mayer to have 400 match wins on both clay and hard courts! Not bad for a clay court specialist, eh?

    • This is one of the reasons I want him to win so badly and as many as possible. I hate it so much when people say he is a clay court specialist. He has won 4 out of 9 hard court slam finals and could have won 3 more within in ( ’14 -Injury ’12 and ’17 leading in the 5th set). and he certainly more than deserves a double career slam. How many does he have to win to be considered a good enough hard court player. Smh

  2. Couldnt sleep in like I thought. Woke up to see he atleast had two sets in the bag.

    Lucky, Read your comment on how hard it is to watch him live. I know now that none of us are too different. We are too nervous on the big points wondering if it will go Rafa’s way. Saw the highlights and was surprised to see Nadal was hitting biggER.. Whats his chances with Medvedev? I think he really needs an early break ( ofcourse be good on his own) and the first set in the bag to be confident enough in the rest. if he doesnt win the first the match may get complicated. How do you foresee. He already had a bagel against him. That should give him confidence hopefully.

    • I think Rafa will fight for it no matter what as its a slam final, so whether he wins the first set or not, he’ll keep on fighting.

      I like Rafa’s chances in the final more than Medvedev’s, that’s all I have to say.

      • I agree. He has done well so far and won fairly clean. I do not like his first serve percentages although the rest of the stats looked pretty good in todays match. I see he did play much aggressive the first set but still a tight set.
        To me if he wins the first set, he will crush Medvedev. Medvedev is strong and to win against Novak in a Masters final stands him in good stead. I just hope it doesnt get too tight of a first set and Rafa comes out fresh and confident and breaks early. As always would love a straight set comfortable win for Rafa.

        • Medvedev beat Djoko in the SF at Cincy, not the final. He beat Goffin in the Cincy final.

          I’m sure Rafa will come out all guns blazing like he did at Montreal final, knowing how tough an opponent Medvedev is. He will not give Medvedev any chance to fight back when Rafa’s ahead, more so when it’s a slam final.

          • Ah yes not the final. I love how you are always on top of facts / stats. My bad. Yes Rafa is relaxed, infact much more than us and he will come out firing. Hopefully it would go his way and he gets ahead early.

  3. Vamos Rafa!!! I just read a bit on the USA website. “Vintage Nadal” it said. That is what I love to hear cuz it does not get better than that.

    I was worried about tonight’s match – Rafa had never played him before and he is a big server. Otoh, Berrettini had never played Rafa before! Advantage Rafa!!

    I have confidence in Rafa v Medvedev. If Rafa’s healthy and playing well, it takes a LEGEND to beat him and that’s not Medvedev.

    Congrats to all the Rafans here and all those who are pulling for him this time.

    • I’m not really pulling for him,except that I picked him to win before the tournament.
      That’s a good insight into fandom.Im not really a fan of anyone then.I do have my favourites,which isn’t the same thing apparently.I don’t lie awake at night if Fed would lose.
      I used to be a huge Agassi fan,but he got beat too often by Sampras so I guess I went off the fandom thing.
      I also post on Andymurray forum and most of the fans on there are diehard .They hate Federer,as a rival.I actually like both players but Fed is still my favourite.
      Most of the Rafafans on here are female,no? And most of them aren’t spring chickens(apologies if that’s wrong)😉

    • lol Getting there, getting there.

      What impressed me about this match was Rafa’s calm and confidence “if I don’t break him in this game I will in the next” (or the next or the next, etc) Possibly that came from KNOWING that Berretini was not going to break Rafa’s serve.

  4. 💚 to all Rafafans and 💚 to all tennis fans! I love the final pairing! Medvedev has truly won my admiration. And Rafa will have to overcome the hottest player of the NA hardcourt swing (besides himself of course, although he has played a lot less) in order to win No 19. Medvedev reaching five finals in a row! How cool is that! And he even won over the rowdy NY crowd after a few initial missteps. All the other young guns should take a long and hard look at Daniil. If his opponent just wasn’t one of the greatest players of all time, I’d say Medvedev is ready for the biggest prize. It’s hard to say if Medvedev will be able to do better than in Toronto. Will the occasion and the physical stress finally get to him? Or will he have learned from the beat-down administered by Rafa when they last met?
    Here’s to a great final!

  5. Rafa would have 25 slams by the time be retires, Nole to get 28, while Fed would reach the highest of 21.

    74 slam shared by big 3, that would be really phenomenal.

      • Yeah, esp with Medvedev around! The guy is getting better and better, and he’ll start beating everyone including the big three!

        He has already beaten Djoko twice so far, so he will be there to prevent Djoko from getting another twelve slams! 😉

        • Medvedev is very consistent, can shift game and have a great mentality but right know is still away of 100% Rafa or Djoko nevertheless he beat him. He also must improve his forehand and backhand to touch Djoko, Rafa and Federer at their best still far away but his mentality is better than other players excluded best 3. Also we must see how he will perform on clay and grass but nevertheless he is huge acquisition to tennis world.
          About tomorrow i think Rafa will win in 3 or 4 sets. His power and mentality its going to be to much for Medvedev as i mentioned his forehand and backhand don’t have enough power and just his consistency to sending balls back to Rafa will not work against him.

          • But, can the big three keep up their ‘best’ level when they’ll be older and older, while Medvedev will be hitting his prime and peak?

            We can’t assume that the big three will stay at an untouchable level forever. Of course we could maybe speculate that the big three at their best will always be > than any of these young guys at their best during their peak, who knows, we have to wait and see.

          • Medvedev BH versus Rafa CC FH could decide the outcome of the match. Rafa is confident, rested and is in real good form. First set will be they key. I hope Rafa gets an early break as that will allow him to open up quickly.

          • I don’t agree that the first set will be the key. Rafa can still win the match, even if he loses the first set. However, Medvedev”s chances will dwindle if he loses the first set. In that case I can’t imagine that he will be able to win the trophy.

          • Thats exactly the point little foot. What would a Rafan want to see. Medvedevs chances dwindle when losing the first set .. Or Rafa giving him belief and having to fight it out for a win. Post the win, yeah it doesnt matter if its 3 or 4 but I cant imagine if I were to watch the match if it goes to 4 or to the wire.

    • I give it about 0.01% chance Djokovic gets that many. Rafa would be a low chance of getting to 25, Fed a low chance of making 21.

  6. Nadal in 3 with at least one TB was always the most probable outcome of this match. Berrettini could have won the first set, but Rafa would have blitzed him afterwards.
    There were little doubts before and during this match so there was no need to sweat. The Spaniard needed about a set to understand the Italian’s game and especially his serve. That’s more often than not the case when he meets a worthy opponent for the first time. I also suspect that he didn’t train properly because of the “stomach bug”. That could have costed him a set but I’m sure that it was “budgeted”.
    What matters is that Nadal finished strongly, returning serves which could have been aces and painting the lines off both sides. The Lion King will reach the final as prepared as he could be and he should have the edge there.

  7. Hope Rafa gets the job done to win his 19th slam; beating a TOP five player in the final will be great, more so when that player is the hottest player this NA HC season.

  8. Why Rafa slam count reaching 25 is possible.

    By tomorrow 19 is confirmed.
    He would get at least 3 more RG, 2 more UsO, and one more in Wimbly. Another 3 years, Rafa age is only 36. Fed won a few slams at this age, Rafa could pick up one or 2 slams every year routinely.

    Time will tell.

    • I am not sure Rafa is an absolute lock to take the title even if most of us would think so. In Sports more so tennis, the stories change pretty quick. Djokovic was supposed win all 4 then it was atleast 3 this year. Yea he was “unbeatable” which seemed quite true yet there are a lot of factors and a bit of luck needed for things to go someones way.

      It is very likely Nadal gets to 19 tomorrow and I would think he deserves one more Aussie and he would try his best to continue his good form and mentality. 3 French opens is a big ask. I would think he could do well to earn a few more but expectations like 25 sounds a bit too much. Lets hope he gets to 19 first and have us as well as him enjoy that moment.

      • PK,I’m very optomistic and like Rafa’s chances. However, absolutely nothing is guaranteed! Rafa could get hurt for example. Remember the AO 2014?? We all thought that against Wawa the title and the double career slam was in the bag. Rafa had so far never lost a match against Wawa! And then he hurt his back during the warm-up phase, and the title was lost before the match even properly started.

        • I am not as worried about an injury. He looks good this time. But like you said, in a lot of matches against Wawa( Is that his nickname now 🙂 ) , I used to see Rafa always makes through a tight first set and blows them the second. For me the first set is pretty key. even Henman suggests the same thing. Rafa will wipe Medvedev, but .. BUT… the first five to six games are key. thats when they give themselves a chance or not. I am not scared, nervous or anything but I would like to wake up tomorrow and read the good news. Guess what. I dont even look up the scores. I come here first to check on status updates. Its been working so far and I am superstitious enough to do the same tomorrow.

  9. There is nothing called guaranteed or sure in tennis. We have to look just at the qf to see how a sure shot result of fed over dimitrov resulted in an upset. Let Rafa play it and win it.

    • Hope she’s not too depressed about politics and that sort of thing. Amy, sending you love, darling. I had to dump my activism and just accept everything is going to shiiit. Spending a lot of time looking at cute puppies and things like that – it helps.

  10. Rafa will win. Doesn’t matter if he loses the first set. He will fight to the very last point and he is ready to do it no matter how many sets it takes. Medvedev is getting better by the day but he’s got a long way to go before he is in Rafa’s class – no matter what happens tomorrow. Rafa is calm and confident and completely focused on the job in front of him. Vamos Rafa!

    I can’t wait for it!!!

    • Elizabeth,

      Thanks for your perspective. I am grateful that you realize that Medvedev is not in Rafa’s class. Not even close. I appreciate that people are impressed with his game and what he has done so far. But at times it seems as though they want to canonize him! LOL!

      I am very cautious when it comes to the next big thing in tennis. We have seen this with Thiem, Zverev, Tsitsipas. Now they are having their struggles. Medvedev seems to be very composed and mentally tough and a quick learner. I think he will make a better showing than he did in the Montreal final. He’s got weapons and thinks out there. But beating Rafa in a best of five set match presents its own unique problems.

      I do agree with you that Rafa will fight with everything he’s got for this one. He knows these opportunities do not come along very often. His will to win is the great intangible. That can cancel out the best strategy employed to Medvedev. This kid is very confident, but Rafa is a man on a mission.

      • NNY, I agree. Medvedev has been nothing less than impressive and I think he has a bright future. But beating Rafa in a slam final? So far only Novak, Fed and Wawa have managed to do this. And Wawa needed the help of Rafa’s bad back ( no disrespect – Wawa has demonstrated since then that he is a worthy slam winner). I have a hard time to believe that Medvedev is already able to beat a healthy Rafa.

  11. Oh and I wanted to also add a shout out to Amy! Knowing her, she must be distraught with what is going on politically in the UK. We can certainly relate!

    I can only focus on the 2020 election to hopefully restore sanity and rescue us from the Orange Menace!

      • Thanks NNY,

        Vamos Rafa in the final!

        Well our dear girl, Mira Andi/Farah Diba was bold enough to take Bianca Andreescu to the final. Big Congrats to her!! 🌹

        Watched the WTA Final. I have no words for how rude the US open crowd was. All I will say is: Bianca Andreescu is a Hero! So happy she won.

        • I’m also happy for Bianca. A bit sorry for Serena who behaved well. She couldn’t find her first serve until well into the 2nd set. I didn’t think the crowd was rude, just cheering very loudly for Serena.

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