U.S. Open final expert picks: Djokovic vs. Nadal

September 9, 2013 Ricky Feature stories, Predictions 354

A three-team panel makes its picks for the men’s singles final on Monday at the U.S. Open.

(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (2) Rafael Nadal

Steen Kirby (Tennis East Coast) – It’s another clash of the titans final for the U.S. Open title. Djokovic in many ways replicated his hot-and-cold performance against Stanislas Wawrinka from the Australian Open, again prevailing in a fifth set, while Nadal finally got broken on serve but still didn’t drop a set as he took out Richard Gasquet. Djokovic created more questions for himself on Saturday, and he will need to recover a lot more than Nadal, but there’s no doubt he can do so. Looking at the head-to-head record, they have split two U.S. Open finals–with Nadal triumphing in 2010 and Djokovic getting revenge in 2011. Nadal won their only hard-court meeting this year, a hard-fought victory in three sets in Montreal. Djokovic has a 10-5 overall hard-court advantage. This match is a tough call, but Nadal has the confidence given he is both fresh and playing impeccable tennis, whereas Djokovic can be brilliant at times but then have his level drop off. Nadal 6-4, 6-7, 7-6, 6-3.

Chris Skelton (Tennis View Magazine) – Outside the Australian Open, Djokovic has spent most of the last two years at majors putting himself in position to win the big match against a marquee rival–and then failing to win it. At both Roland Garros and Wimbledon, he came up short against Big Four opponents after looking crisp earlier in the tournament. Djokovic also seemed to struggle in recovering from a five-set semifinal for the Wimbledon final, a similar scenario to what confronts him here. While Nadal lost his last two finals against Djokovic at hard-court majors, he has won their last two meetings overall at Roland Garros and the Rogers Cup. Those extremely tense meetings showed that the Spaniard currently holds the mental edge over his rival. The more impressive of the two this tournament, Nadal has dropped serve only once through six rounds. Granted, his competition has been a degree less than elite, but such was also the case when he won this title in 2010. Two of the three previous men to complete the Canada-Cincinnati double have completed their summer by winning the U.S. Open. And Nadal has not lost on a hard court all year. Nadal 6-4, 4-6, 7-5, 6-2.

Hasan Murad – The most intense rivalry in tennis will enter the record books as Djokovic and Nadal lock horns for the 37th time. It is the element of unpredictability in their rivalry that’s most intriguing. Nadal has pocketed a career-best hard-court season in 2013 as he enters the final having won 21 of 21 matches (48/54 sets) and possessing a tour-best 93 percent of service games won record on hard courts. Djokovic, on the other hand, is unsurprisingly a comfortable leader in return games won (36 percent) on hard courts this year. Nadal’s current momentum is unprecedented because this is the first time he has consistently played phenomenal tennis on faster surfaces. Djokovic is usually favored in their hard-court matches because of the matchup, but over the last two years Nadal has done wonderfully well to shift the dynamics. He has once again found winning patterns that include breaking down the Serb’s forehand, varying his own serve, and adding more penetration on his service returns. Djokovic is a perfect 36-0 at the U.S. Open after winning the first set, so if the No. 1 seed takes charge from the beginning, Nadal will have to use every ounce of energy to surmount the best hard-court player the last three years. Despite trailing 9-4 on outdoor hard courts, Nadal currently has the mental edge because of his peerless confidence and Djokovic’s recent mental hiccups (as a consequence of which he entered this fortnight ranked 32nd in deciding sets won this year). The player who produces courageous and aggressive tennis in key moments will have the edge. Nadal 6-4, 4-6, 6-2, 7-5.

Ricky Dimon – Nadal may lead the overall head-to-head series 21-15, but Djokovic has won 11 of their 18 hard-court meetings and he is 2-1 lifetime against the Spaniard in Grand Slam finals. The edge in current form and and physical well-being may go to Nadal, but there is reason to think Djokovic can overcome those issues. At the 2012 Australian Open, the Serb won a four-hour and 50-minute semifinal against Andy Murray then went back out two days later and outlasted Nadal in a title match that lasted five hours and 53 minutes. Although Djokovic called Nadal “the ultimate competitor” after Saturday’s semifinals, these two men should really share that title. Just as it is almost impossible to win three sets in a span of five against Nadal on clay, it is extremely difficult to do the same against Djokovic on hards. The surface, the evening conditions, and arguably the best two-handed backhand on tour right now (a shot that can stand up to Nadal’s topspin) may be just enough to put an end to Nadal’s unbelievable hot streak. Djokovic 3-6, 6-4, 5-7, 7-6, 6-3.

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34 Comments on U.S. Open final expert picks: Djokovic vs. Nadal

  1. rafaelo my dear friend..you missed living the moment..you should have controlled your nerves and stayed on..worst that would have happened is he would have lost..

    whatever you see now as repeat telecast will not match the sheer exhiliration of watching it live and feeling it. Next time you are too nervous, take a flight ticket and come to India and you will feel less nervous watching with me (just joking lol) but dont miss living such moments LIVE 😉

    Reply

  2. Rafans I have 2 questions to ask you all, please answer if you can

    Q1) I know 2013 is not over yet but where would you rank Rafas 2013 compared to 2010 and 2008?
    To me I still think 2010 is greatest as he completed career slam that year nd won 3 slams on 3 different surfaces, 2013 will come 2nd and 2008 3rd.

    Q2) If you would have known in 2012 that Rafa would have given us this super strong 2013 season and go to the very top, how many of you would have signed up to agree for him missing 7 months due to injury in 2012? I know it is a speculative question, not easy to answer as an afterthought, still will be nice to hear your opinions.

    Reply

  3. I hope Rafa wins 1 more Masters so that he has the lone record of max Masters in a year 😉

    My wish for remainder year ..win Shanghai and WTF :-)..I know being too greedy

    Next year Rafa will have like a herculean task defending so many points (very difficult to do) , he has to make very deep runs in Wimby and AO to compensate for the potential losses elsewhere .

    Reply

  4. I want to make a very important point here based on Fed vs Rafa stats shared by Augusta
    Comparing Rafa and Roger Federer at the age of 27 years, 3 months, 6 days:
    ¤ Rafa on Sept 9th, 2013:
    – singles titles, total 60,
    – Masters titles 26,
    – GS titles 13;
    ¤ Roger Federer on Nov 14th, 2008:
    – singles titles, total 57,
    – Masters titles 14,
    – GS titles 13.

    The very fact that Rafa has more tiles, same GS, far more Masters yet close to 120 weeks less as No 1 at age 27 itself shows the difference in depth of fields during Rogers dominating years vs what Rafa had to face. Rafa inspite of bagging more titles, equal slams has spent far lesser years at No 1 compared to Fed.

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  5. Haha Novaks coaching consultants comments

    Wojtek Fibak: “It’s like Chopin who was born to compose music. Nadal was born to win tennis matches”.”During the match, the thought that kept coming to my mind was that I was watching a genius”

    Look at Andy Murrays tweet..he really adores Rafa doesn’t he

    @andy_murray: Rafael Nadal Perera… Legend

    Reply

  7. Funny post on a site

    ………. YET ANOTHER CLAY COURT TITLE FOR NADAL……………

    Rafael Nadal has won another clay court on the dust of Flushing Meadows, New York. This has shown his supreme ability to win on clay as he has already captured clay court titles at Montreal & Cincinnati dust bowls before coming to New York.
    But Tennis pundits admit that it may take probably another decade for Nadal to win on hard courts as he has been clearly struggling against GREAT HARD COURT MAESTROS ROGER FEDDERER & NOVAK DJOKOVIC as they have beaten Nadal in every meeting on Hard Courts right through out his career.
    And Nadal has extended his unbeaten run of 22 matches on clay courts this year.
    Many great Tennis pundits like Overestimation Nadal have suggested that if Nadal needs to be one the greatest players in the history of Tennis like Federer or Djokovic who have been brilliant on all surfaces, he must be able to win on Hard surface & need to maintain winning streak of 22 like he’s been maintaining on Clay in 2013.
    Therefore those pundits call him as KING OF DUST in the years to come.

    – BELGRADE TIMES – 10/09/2013 (MORNING EDITION).

    Reply

  8. Novaks coach Fibak going on and on about Rafa 🙂
    After Djoko failed to convert 3 BP in 3rd set at 4-4

    “That’s where I think Djoko lost his heart,” Fibak said. “He lost his belief that he can beat Rafael on the day like this, in New York. Rafael just believes. His courage to produce the biggest shots, the most risky shots, like his forehand down the line? How many great cross-courts did Djokovic hit and then he has practically no time? How many times? Novak was in disbelief. He saw and couldn’t believe: One, two, three, four, five, six, 10 times, the biggest points.”

    Reply

  9. Nny,
    Of course I didn’t have any of your comments in mind when I wrote about mental toughness :-)!
    This was addressed to those who would write that Rafa won the third set and therefore the match ‘merely’ thanks to his doggedness. You have to not want or know to see 90% of the other factors. In other words because they are not convenient or you simply know too little at the moment.

    I used to write that when Roger rose to prominence high and fast at a time when there just was no one else in his league (Agassi was already well past 30) he became mythologized beyond reasonable perceptions of his abilities and achievements. He was from then seen as an absolute. A phenomenon in a class apart from mere mortals, mere superb players. Dionysus if you will. A sun god whose absolute brilliance would blind more than half of the writers, commentators, tournament organizers and fans to any truly grounded views of the divine player or of any other male players. When Rafa was quickly rising to the number two spot in the ATP his hard to believe achievements were not seen in their entirety or objectively if at all. Like stars who can not be seen during the day due to the strong light from the sun. Still the case today for so many tennis fans and others.

    Now imagine if Rafa had played in the same era as he has but there was no Roger. His achievements would be seen more objectively, clearly by anyone as the blinding effect would not be there.

    In summary they have each achieved unbelievable things, in different ways and many of the same ways. They certainly both belong in the rare company of the very best male tennis players in the history of the sport. And while the excellence of the one is routinely exaggerated the excellence of the other is routinely downplayed or in the case of some simply denied.

    Reply

    • Chloro,

      This is a brilliant post! Thanks for saying it! I think it’s been true for so long. Rafa has always been measure by the Fed standard, if you will. His accomplishments, achievements and records have not been allowed to stand on their own. It’s one reason why I detest this GOAT argument and won’t participate. It’s a phony argument that was created by desperate Fed fans to put their guy on a pedestal that no one else could ever touch.

      I never understood how anyone could compare Rafa to Fed, when Rafa has had three years less in this sport. Could anyone seriously argue that Rafa should have 17 slams at this point in his career when even Fed didn’t?

      There’s really not much more to say, because you said it all so well!

      Thanks! 🙂

      Reply

  10. Amazing coincidence:

    Djokovic engaged in a 54 stroke rally aganist Rafa last night which he won but ended up losing the match. Djokovic also engaged in a 54 stroke rally in last year’s us open final against Muzza. He outlasted his competitor (Murray last year, Nadal tonight) in both cases, and won the point. But then went on to lose the match. Watch the you tube videos of both points below:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PO3cvxgxCgg

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ajcuIlKvjxk

    Reply

  11. Sanju@1.35pm

    Almost impossible to rank them, even with 20/20 hindsight. But here goes. My picks are based on emotion rather than logic.

    1. 2008
    That was the year he became World No.1 and year ending No.l; won the Olympic Gold (a magical moment in my book); clocked up his 4th consecutive RG; conquered grass with his first Wimbledon title (in doing so he broke Roger’s stranglehold and achieved the back to back Channel double) and also reached the other two Slam SFs. But for sheer exhaustion and jet lag he might well have gone on to win the USO that year: won three Masters and reached a second final and three SFs.

    I put 2008 above 2010 and 2013 because it included some significant firsts and it’s harder to break through the barrier for the first time.

    2. Has to be 2013
    Whatever happens for the rest of the year the year to date is simply mind boggling and will go into the history books as one of the most remarkable comebacks ever staged. However for me it still does not carry the same impact as his 2008 year at the age of 22.

    3: 2010

    2010 was impressive particularly as he came back from being crippled for a long period with his knee and having suffered possibly his most painful ever defeat at the hands of Soderling. But in the overall context it is not on a par with either 2008 or 2013,

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  12. Part 2 of the questionnaire is a tad hypothetical ? but if you recall almost everyday on TT people were saying ‘take your time’, ‘dont rush back too soon’ , ‘we’ll wait patiently for as long as it takes’ etc. etc.

    Ricky’s blog that ran for months was testament to the worry and concern but I guess 99% would have signed up for an indefinite wait provided he was eventually restored to tennis in good health.

    Reply

  13. Sanju,

    You pose an interesting question about how to rank Rafa’s greatest tennis years. It’s a tough one because each was special in its own way.

    I do have to agree with ed that 2008 has to be #1 on my list. It was a watershed year, the changing of the guard. It was when Rafa finally came into his own after being #2 to Fed’s #1 and battling to try to beat him at Wimbledon. That was the year that he did it in what is widely regarded as the greatest tennis match ever played. Rafa finally broke through and beat Fed somewhere other than at RG. Fed had such a stranglehold at the time, that I think people may not fully realize the importance of this win.

    It was also the first time a player won the channel slam since Borg did it in 1980. How fitting that it was Rafa who finally managed to end that drought. It was also the year I believe, that Rafa won RG, Queens and Wimbledon. If I am correct, he is the only one to have completed this trifecta. Of course, beating Fed finally gave Rafa the #1 ranking.

    Then there was the Olympics where Rafa won the gold medal. All this playing took its toll and Rafa ran out of gas at the USO. But this was a breakthrough year and Rafa’s rise to the top.

    It’s harder to rank 2010 and 2013. Each of these years was special in its own right. Rafa was coming back from the bitter disappointment of his fourth round loss to Soderling at the 2009 RG. He had to withdraw from Wimbledon and could not defend his 2008 title. When he came back to the USO, he was nowhere near his best form and battling a nasty stomach tear. Rafa would go on a ten month title drought until the 2010 MC. After winning that tournament, Rafa was off to the races. He won Rome, Madrid and RG in fitting fashion by beating the man who had beaten him the year before, Soderling. Then it was on to Wimbledon where Rafa completed his second channel slam. I don’t remember when he got the #1 ranking back, but it happened.

    Then the icing on the cake- the unbelievable victory at the USO. This was significant because Rafa was the first man to do this since the great Rod Laver did it forty years ago. Winning RG, Wimbledon and the USO consecutively. Something that Fed was never able to do. Rafa would go for his fourth slam in a row, the Rafa slam at the 2011 AO and we all know how that turned out. But 2010 was Rafa’s emergence as the dominant force in men’s tennis as Fed’s era was over.

    Then there is this year. Rafa coming back from being out seven months with another knee injury. So many doubts and questions. He had to start slow with the South American clay court swing. Then he moved on to Acapulco. He got better as he went along. Then the decision to play I/W. Getting the win there, finally on hard court. Then skipping Miami to get ready for the clay court season. The disappointment of having his winning streak end at MC with his loss to Djoker in the final. All the talk about how Rafa wouldn’t be ready or able to win RG this year. All Djoker’s incessant blathering on about how he wanted to complete his career slam. Then we all know what happened in that great semifinal match where Rafa gutted out another great victory. He would go on to win his record 8th title at RG. But he would come up short at Wimbledon, crashing out in the first round.

    Now this American Summer Slam. Undefeated on hard courts this year. Two slams. It’s hard to rank 2010 and 2013. Both were historic and significant. How do you compare winning the channel slam for the second time and then the USO, equaling Rod Laver’s achievement so long ago, something that has not been done by anyone else?

    They have to be tied for me. I can’t choose between them.

    Reply

  14. Ricky: I meant to say what an inspired idea of yours it was to publish that blog when you did. During those long seven months it provided somewhere for Rafans to share their hopes and fears and to exchange every bit of news, no matter how small, about his progress.

    Reply

  16. Anybody who says that Rafa only wins because of his physical ability and mental strength needs to get his head examined. Rafa is as much about physical strength & endurance & mental toughness as he is about tennis skill/problem solving/adaptability and tennis brain.

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  17. @NNY, true ! rafa’s fighting abilities are just unmatched, nobody comes even close ! He was not able to play aggressive tennis for set 3 (though the aggression was missing from the backhand for almost the entire match), he was just competing SO WELL…

    Holdserve, WOW ! I am extremely flattered with all the praise , thank you so much! However, I think there are many other awesome posters here with such abundance of knowledge. NNY is one of the favourite posters for a long time ! I have great faith in her insights and observations and yes she is a very honest poster ! You are also a great poster, please keep posting regularly 🙂

    Reply

  18. Sanju, wow what a tough question! I think its impossible to rank these three years lol… The reasoning given by NNY,ed are great..I am not sure, 2010 has the most impressive feats on paper and it featured remarkable fighting skills. When rafa retired against Muzz in the qtrs of Oz 2010, many said his career was done ,esp following what had happened to rafa since RG 2009… Rafa roared back and won the next 3 slams .he also raised his game to a whole new level at USO 2010! So 2010 tops my list , BUT ONLY JUST.

    2008/2013 are really really close to call…I would rank 2013 because of this 60-3 mark, being undefeated, reversing the dynamics of the rivalry against djokovic,..this is easily the greatest comeback year ever ! Agassi said rafa might need twice the amount of time he was out to get back into top form…but he has been near perfect since feb ! so:

    1.2010
    2.2013
    3.2008

    I think it depends on the context. I might rank 2013 at the top by the end of the year because its not over yet. 2008 was a breakthrough year and that 2008 wimb win was so emotional and freed rafa of all shackles…

    may be 2014 will be even better?! u never know with rafa

    Reply

  19. Rafa’s best streak came at 2008 though, that 32 match winning streak between MC 2008 to Cincy semi was out of this world ! one of the best streaks ever… so yeah one could strong make cases for all these seasons

    Ricky’s response was really wise ! 2013 was more impressive ,2010 was better…but there’s more to come in 2013 !

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  20. For me there is no contest, 2013 is the best of the lot for the following reasons:

    1) Rafa has no business being where he is now. This was supposed to be a transition year for him. Instead, it’s turned out to be a “re-asserting my authority” year.
    2) He was not even expected to play on HC again, ever. But here he is, on a HC winning streak like never seen before. Can someone please confirm if anybody else has ever enjoyed a consecutive HC winning streak like Rafa’s in 2013 todate?
    3) He beats not once but twice, the guy everybody says is he best HC player of modern times, on his favorite surface, in the process stringing together a North American HC slam which said ” HC specialist” has yet to contrive.
    4) 2008, 2010 did not have Djokovic 2.0 so one can argue that Rafa faced stronger competition in 2013 than before.

    It is his 2013 performance on HC that clinches it for me. And he is doing it WITHOUT compromising his clay court credentials, establishing himself as a true all- round tennis player. As Tiggy puts it in his most recent blog, it’s time to replace the label “clay court specialist” with “clay court lover”. 2013 has proved to us that Rafa is a complete, all-round tennis player who just happens to love playing on clay.

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    • —Can someone please confirm if anybody else has ever enjoyed a consecutive HC winning streak like Rafa’s in 2013 todate?—

      There are several players.who have had a long HC winning streak:
      matches, name, years
      56, Roger Federer, 2005–06
      36, Roger Federer, 2006–07
      35, Novak Djokovic, 2010–11
      34, Pete Sampras, 1994
      34, Pete Sampras, 1996–97

      Reply

      • Thank you @Augusta08. Given that, for me, it would be preferable to focus on the WTF and Oz Open 2014, I hope Rafa does not have extending his HC record in mind. Wouldn’t want him busting his guts to win all in the Asian swing for example. He needs rest and prepare for the big ‘uns.

        Reply

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