U.S. Open final expert picks: Djokovic vs. Nadal

Steen Kirby (Tennis East Coast) – It’s another clash of the titans final for the U.S. Open title. Djokovic in many ways replicated his hot-and-cold performance against Stanislas Wawrinka from the Australian Open, again prevailing in a fifth set, while Nadal finally got broken on serve but still didn’t drop a set as he took out Richard Gasquet. Djokovic created more questions for himself on Saturday, and he will need to recover a lot more than Nadal, but there’s no doubt he can do so. Looking at the head-to-head record, they have split two U.S. Open finals–with Nadal triumphing in 2010 and Djokovic getting revenge in 2011. Nadal won their only hard-court meeting this year, a hard-fought victory in three sets in Montreal. Djokovic has a 10-5 overall hard-court advantage. This match is a tough call, but Nadal has the confidence given he is both fresh and playing impeccable tennis, whereas Djokovic can be brilliant at times but then have his level drop off. Nadal 6-4, 6-7, 7-6, 6-3.

Chris Skelton (Tennis View Magazine) – Outside the Australian Open, Djokovic has spent most of the last two years at majors putting himself in position to win the big match against a marquee rival–and then failing to win it. At both Roland Garros and Wimbledon, he came up short against Big Four opponents after looking crisp earlier in the tournament. Djokovic also seemed to struggle in recovering from a five-set semifinal for the Wimbledon final, a similar scenario to what confronts him here. While Nadal lost his last two finals against Djokovic at hard-court majors, he has won their last two meetings overall at Roland Garros and the Rogers Cup. Those extremely tense meetings showed that the Spaniard currently holds the mental edge over his rival. The more impressive of the two this tournament, Nadal has dropped serve only once through six rounds. Granted, his competition has been a degree less than elite, but such was also the case when he won this title in 2010. Two of the three previous men to complete the Canada-Cincinnati double have completed their summer by winning the U.S. Open. And Nadal has not lost on a hard court all year. Nadal 6-4, 4-6, 7-5, 6-2.

Hasan Murad – The most intense rivalry in tennis will enter the record books as Djokovic and Nadal lock horns for the 37th time. It is the element of unpredictability in their rivalry that’s most intriguing. Nadal has pocketed a career-best hard-court season in 2013 as he enters the final having won 21 of 21 matches (48/54 sets) and possessing a tour-best 93 percent of service games won record on hard courts. Djokovic, on the other hand, is unsurprisingly a comfortable leader in return games won (36 percent) on hard courts this year. Nadal’s current momentum is unprecedented because this is the first time he has consistently played phenomenal tennis on faster surfaces. Djokovic is usually favored in their hard-court matches because of the matchup, but over the last two years Nadal has done wonderfully well to shift the dynamics. He has once again found winning patterns that include breaking down the Serb’s forehand, varying his own serve, and adding more penetration on his service returns. Djokovic is a perfect 36-0 at the U.S. Open after winning the first set, so if the No. 1 seed takes charge from the beginning, Nadal will have to use every ounce of energy to surmount the best hard-court player the last three years. Despite trailing 9-4 on outdoor hard courts, Nadal currently has the mental edge because of his peerless confidence and Djokovic’s recent mental hiccups (as a consequence of which he entered this fortnight ranked 32nd in deciding sets won this year). The player who produces courageous and aggressive tennis in key moments will have the edge. Nadal 6-4, 4-6, 6-2, 7-5.