A three-team panel makes its picks for the men’s singles final on Monday at the U.S. Open.
Hasan Murad – The most intense rivalry in tennis will enter the record books as Djokovic and Nadal lock horns for the 37th time. It is the element of unpredictability in their rivalry that’s most intriguing. Nadal has pocketed a career-best hard-court season in 2013 as he enters the final having won 21 of 21 matches (48/54 sets) and possessing a tour-best 93 percent of service games won record on hard courts. Djokovic, on the other hand, is unsurprisingly a comfortable leader in return games won (36 percent) on hard courts this year. Nadal’s current momentum is unprecedented because this is the first time he has consistently played phenomenal tennis on faster surfaces. Djokovic is usually favored in their hard-court matches because of the matchup, but over the last two years Nadal has done wonderfully well to shift the dynamics. He has once again found winning patterns that include breaking down the Serb’s forehand, varying his own serve, and adding more penetration on his service returns. Djokovic is a perfect 36-0 at the U.S. Open after winning the first set, so if the No. 1 seed takes charge from the beginning, Nadal will have to use every ounce of energy to surmount the best hard-court player the last three years. Despite trailing 9-4 on outdoor hard courts, Nadal currently has the mental edge because of his peerless confidence and Djokovic’s recent mental hiccups (as a consequence of which he entered this fortnight ranked 32nd in deciding sets won this year). The player who produces courageous and aggressive tennis in key moments will have the edge. Nadal 6-4, 4-6, 6-2, 7-5.
Ricky Dimon – Nadal may lead the overall head-to-head series 21-15, but Djokovic has won 11 of their 18 hard-court meetings and he is 2-1 lifetime against the Spaniard in Grand Slam finals. The edge in current form and and physical well-being may go to Nadal, but there is reason to think Djokovic can overcome those issues. At the 2012 Australian Open, the Serb won a four-hour and 50-minute semifinal against Andy Murray then went back out two days later and outlasted Nadal in a title match that lasted five hours and 53 minutes. Although Djokovic called Nadal “the ultimate competitor” after Saturday’s semifinals, these two men should really share that title. Just as it is almost impossible to win three sets in a span of five against Nadal on clay, it is extremely difficult to do the same against Djokovic on hards. The surface, the evening conditions, and arguably the best two-handed backhand on tour right now (a shot that can stand up to Nadal’s topspin) may be just enough to put an end to Nadal’s unbelievable hot streak. Djokovic 3-6, 6-4, 5-7, 7-6, 6-3.
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EXCELLENT POINT by Sanju about the depth of field … same GS, ,twice as many masters but still no.1 far less weeks…although there are small caveats in this notion but this is a pretty good deduction! well done
thanks for the list of hard court streaks augusta ! was wondering the same yesterday..
and rafa playing davis cup is not good 🙁
I don’t know that I agree that this year has provided the toughest competition ever for Rafa. In 2008 Fed was still a force in the game and was easily the dominant player. That is why I believe that Rafa’s Wimbledon win that year is such a watershed event. Rafa had already shown that he could beat Fed at RG, but no one was able to beat Fed anywhere else.
This was Rafa’s moment of triumph. He arrived, in a big way. Rafa had tried and failed in two previous attempts to beat Fed at Wimbledon. After years of being #2 to Fed, Rafa finally came into his own and out of Fed’s shadow as the new #1 player. There was no tougher competition at that time than a Fed who was still in his prime. Djoker won the AO that year and started acting like he would win everything. But he came up short and maybe learned a lesson. Murray was not really on the radar yet.
Now we can say that Fed was not a force this year. He is in the twilight of his career. We now have a top three, not a top four. We do have other players stepping up and making some noise, but who have not been able to break through or seriously make a run at any slam. I am talking about Berdy, Delpo, Tsonga. Now we can add Wawrinka, to those guys. I don’t know about Gasquet. Then there are the up and comers like Jerzy, Raonic, Dimitrov and Tomic. But they have not shown the fitness and mental toughness to challenge the top players in slams.
The bottom line is that we can all have our own opinions regarding how to rank 2008, 2010 and 2013. It’s a nice problem to have.
vamosrafa,
Thanks for your kind words. Now at least here I feel free to express my thoughts without fear of being personally attacked by trolls. I have expressed my respect for you many times. Your knowledge of the game and ability to break down the essentials when analyzing players and matches, is unparalleled.
The only one missing is Luckystar.
Oh, and I am not happy about Rafa playing DC so soon after the USO.
Good points @nny. Yes, Fed was THE competition in 2008, and formidable at that as he successfully kept Rafa from the #1 spot. But I would say Novak and Muzza were not yet the developed spices they now are. So, while Fed is a tard slower now, He has been replaced by Nole and Muzza in their prime, and Rafa has had to recalibrate and raise his game to counter them. Just after his US Open success, Rafa was quoted as saying beating Fed is easier than beating Novak, now of course, doubt that was the case in 2008. Regardless, I think there is some truth to that.
Sorry one more thing to add to my previous post. I should note that Murray did make the 2008 USO semifinals, beating Rafa. I don’t know that it was accurate to say that he was not on the radar. Maybe I should have said that he had not established himself among the top players. But he was good enough to beat Rafa back then. He came more into his own in 2009. Now of course he is right up there with the best.
NNY, great points ! and yes, I really wish luckystar could join us….she was a big asset
victory was sooo sweet… i watched the game again another 3 times … lol i celebrated as though i won lol…. it was great to see rafa comeback in this fashion.. he is such an inspiration for me too in my own life…. i never complaint and always been working harder … how can i not do that after being Rafa fan. thx Rafa!!
victory was sooo sweet… i watched the game again another 3 times … lol i celebrated as though i won lol…. it was great to see rafa comeback in this fashion.. he is such an inspiration for me too in my own life…. i never complaint and always been working harder … how can i not do that after being Rafa fan. thx Rafa!!
Chuck