A three-team panel makes its picks for the men’s singles final on Monday at the U.S. Open.
Hasan Murad – The most intense rivalry in tennis will enter the record books as Djokovic and Nadal lock horns for the 37th time. It is the element of unpredictability in their rivalry that’s most intriguing. Nadal has pocketed a career-best hard-court season in 2013 as he enters the final having won 21 of 21 matches (48/54 sets) and possessing a tour-best 93 percent of service games won record on hard courts. Djokovic, on the other hand, is unsurprisingly a comfortable leader in return games won (36 percent) on hard courts this year. Nadal’s current momentum is unprecedented because this is the first time he has consistently played phenomenal tennis on faster surfaces. Djokovic is usually favored in their hard-court matches because of the matchup, but over the last two years Nadal has done wonderfully well to shift the dynamics. He has once again found winning patterns that include breaking down the Serb’s forehand, varying his own serve, and adding more penetration on his service returns. Djokovic is a perfect 36-0 at the U.S. Open after winning the first set, so if the No. 1 seed takes charge from the beginning, Nadal will have to use every ounce of energy to surmount the best hard-court player the last three years. Despite trailing 9-4 on outdoor hard courts, Nadal currently has the mental edge because of his peerless confidence and Djokovic’s recent mental hiccups (as a consequence of which he entered this fortnight ranked 32nd in deciding sets won this year). The player who produces courageous and aggressive tennis in key moments will have the edge. Nadal 6-4, 4-6, 6-2, 7-5.
Ricky Dimon – Nadal may lead the overall head-to-head series 21-15, but Djokovic has won 11 of their 18 hard-court meetings and he is 2-1 lifetime against the Spaniard in Grand Slam finals. The edge in current form and and physical well-being may go to Nadal, but there is reason to think Djokovic can overcome those issues. At the 2012 Australian Open, the Serb won a four-hour and 50-minute semifinal against Andy Murray then went back out two days later and outlasted Nadal in a title match that lasted five hours and 53 minutes. Although Djokovic called Nadal “the ultimate competitor” after Saturday’s semifinals, these two men should really share that title. Just as it is almost impossible to win three sets in a span of five against Nadal on clay, it is extremely difficult to do the same against Djokovic on hards. The surface, the evening conditions, and arguably the best two-handed backhand on tour right now (a shot that can stand up to Nadal’s topspin) may be just enough to put an end to Nadal’s unbelievable hot streak. Djokovic 3-6, 6-4, 5-7, 7-6, 6-3.
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tough call.. right.. if we follow the women’s trend and cincy open where vika beat sarena but lost here then djiker should beat rafa but overall its rafa ..
i pick rafa in 4 or 5 sets… 🙂
To me, Novak has more to prove in this final: this is the surface he is suppossed to be superior, Rafa has bested him on it as recently as Montreal, Rafa has garnered the better HC record this season, Novak needs to reverse his current Slam “slump”. So all this will add to his already existing motivation to beat Rafa whenever they meet. He will be ready.
Rafa has less pressure: he has already exceeded his expectations for the season and the hard courts in particular, he knows this is Novak’s favourite surface and his worst so being in the final is a bonus on its own, he has improved his points position and most importantly, by being in the final he gives himself a chance to win. As a result of all this, Rafa should be calmer and swing freely.
I want Rafa to win, it could go either way but Rafa has already exceeded my expectations this season, I hope he has a good match.
Vamos Rafa!
Ricky says, “The surface, the evening conditions, and arguably the best two-handed backhand on tour right now”
Have you been watching Novak recently, Ricky? His BH has not been firing, it has been leaking unusual errors. In fact, he lost faith in this particular shot of his as recently as during the semi against Wawa and resorted to running around it. It may be the best two-hander on tour right now because the rest are that abysmal, but that does not make Djokovic’s the terror-inducing shot of old.
That is not to say he may not find it during the final……………
I was also wondering whether Ricky has been watching Nole lately. His game seems to be lacking in all areas. Rafa just needs to look after his service games and not give Nole a free break of serve leading to a set and Nole will lose all on his own.
^^^Forgot to mention Nole’s tally of UEs in the QF and SF.
Keep your mind focused and sharp like a laser beam, remain calm and be strong like steel, Rafa!
This is what I am talking about, Novak has been favouring his FH compared to his double handed BH this tournament, I hope this continues in the final!:
“Djokovic has hit more winners with his forehand (77) than his backhand (32) at the Open and has sometimes opted to hit his one-handed slice backhand rather than his two-hander up the line, but he will need that hit the tougher shot against Nadal.”
http://www.tennis.com/pro-game/2013/09/2013-us-open-mens-final-preview/49103/#.Ui1oOj9RCDc
Sean Randall made a point of bringing up Djoker’s backhand not working for him, especially in the match with Stan. He said that this is one shot he will need to beat Rafa. He had other points to make, but I thought that stood out since Djoker did run around his backhand to hit forehands in the semifinal. That shows a lack of confidence in that shot. Why? That is what has made him so tough, particularly for Rafa.
If he does find it in the final, then that’s going to make it harder for Rafa. But Rafa will be trying to use his own tactics. He’s not going into this match without his own game plan. I just think that Rafa is as ready as he can possibly be to meet Djoker in this slam again.
It’s going to be a battle for sure. I know that I should consider the possibility that Djoker could win, but I just really want Rafa to do this. It’s not that he must do it or the world will end. I think Djoker has a great deal on the line because Rafa has gotten the best of him in their last five or six matches. Getting beaten at Montreal had to sting even more. The number one ranking for year end might be decided by this match.
They both have a lot to play for right now. That’s why I think it will another one of those slugfest battles right to the end.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/tennis/news/20130907/rafael-nadal-novak-djokovic-us-open-final/#ixzz2eL97oicE
May the best man win!
Vamos Rafa!
No mercy on Novak this time.
Show the world who’s really the best player this year.
Nadal in 3 !
That’s what I am hoping for, @Shireling!
If there is one thing I have not been happy about Rafa 3.0 is this: he has been allowing opponents to hang around on court! He allowed Novak to hang around in the RG semi, he allowed Reeshad to hang around in the USOpen semi, and I am sure there are other examples out there. Rafa is ruthless, but he needs to be more ruthless. When he puts that jack-boot on an opponent’s throat, he needs to keep it there until he taps, to use a wrestling metaphor……….
Ah Shireling. Happy to see the post from you. Usually you are a bit tentative like you were about Rafa vs Philip..seeing your brave prediction makes me feel better
so nervous… just like i’m having a hard exam ahead of myself…
Some thoughts to help you cope with your nervousness, @rafaelo:
1. This is Novak’s best surface, he is expected to win, so if he wins, it should not be a surprise;
2. This is Rafa’s worst surface, he can’t be expected to win, so if he loses, it should not be a complete surprise;
3. Even if Rafa loses, he will end the year as #1, barring any unforeseen circumstances;
4. Rafa is in another final, that is jam
and most important of all: Rafa will give his best, so if he loses, he will have lost giving his best.
Cheers!
yes ritb! thes are true! but something about djoker bothers me! he is not a sweet champion! not so grounded like rafa!
and the bad thing is that he didn’t play well all year long but now if he wins he had 2 slams this year! and that sucks!
rafaelo@September 9, 2013 at 9:11 am
Chant ‘vamos’! 🙂
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BCmw9oOCIAA3pVw.jpg
nice 😀 😀
@rafaelo, if Novak wins it will be because he was the better player on the day, so we have to accept that. However, I am very bullish about our guy, I feel he will pull it off.
Believe!
Amen 🙂
I’m not worried this time.
Rafa is going to win.
This argument of the ‘worst surface’ is just not valid any more. When a player dominates the HC season as much as Rafa has done so far this year it becomes quite clear that this is no ‘worst surface’. It’s not his fault that there aren’t any more HC tourneys otherwise he would have won just as many as on clay this year.
If any I’d say Rafa’s worst surface is grass due to his awful results in Wimby these last years.
I totally agree with you @Shireling regarding the “HC is Rafa’s worst surface” spiel. Advancing it is my way of lowering my expectations, a coping mechanism. I am not as brave as you in stating the obvious: Rafa is damn good on HC!
I think I said the same in another post, Rafa cannot continue to be judged by his pre 2013 HC record, it makes no sense, especially if people will not judge Novak by his pre 2011 record.
Gasquet, in his post semi presser, even went as far as saying Rafa is the best on HC currently. I agree.
There were good reasons for those two early Wimbledon losses Shirling. Time was when it was said he would not beat Federer on grass and then look what happened.
He set himself the task of conquering playing on grass just as he has done now on HC.
Ditto, the refrain was Rafa is always spent after RG and Wimby. No signs of that so far this year 🙂
All that remains now is for Rafa to overcome his distaste for indoor HCs. lol.
Ricky, I have responded to your email . Please add my preview if possible, I hope it is ! 🙂 Could not respond on time because of the difference in time zones perhaps.
you guys are right,novak’s backhand is has not been the same in this tournament. On the backhand side,he has 32 winners to 70 U,E so far as compared to rafa’s 28 winners to a mere 29 U.E . Rafa’s backhand has been much more solid. This is definitely one of the reasons I have confidence in rafa…
I am beginning to wonder: during the semi against Gasquet, Rafa hit a lot of neutral shots I.e. deep, mid court shots and I remember wondering why he was not going cross court or DTL. Could it be Rafa was already practicing handicapping Nole’s DHBH? He hit those neutral shots with success against Nole at RG, denying Nole angle and forcing him to hit with his least favorite shot, the FH. Novak lost the last game in that semi because of successive FH errors.
the key to success for rafa is his forehand DTL and I/O! even middle court balls do not help him!
The reason Rafa wasn’t aggressive against Gasquet was the wind. He said in his presser that it was difficult to control the ball so that might be why he was playing safe.
It was very windy during the Ladies’ final last night, I am hoping it will be a lot calmer tonight.
Nole has not been playing well but that’s not to ay he won’t play well tonight. Rafa should just deny him the ability of hitting winners from the back of the court.
I agree with Rafaelo that it would be a travesty if Nole won tonight considering how badly he’s played since the AO.
39 U.E for rafa’s backhand**
@Shireling, todate, Rafa has 3 HC Masters shields compared to 2 for clay. If he wins tonight his HC season will officially have been better than his clay season, with room for further improvement in Shanghai, Paris and WTF.
A couple of corrections in the above previews :
In steen Kirby’s post, its mentioned djokovic has a 10-5 advantage on hard courts..its actually 11-6
In Ricky’s preview, it’s mentioned djokovic has won 11 of their 18 meetings…its actually 11 of their 17 meetings
Vamosrafa: You’re very beady eyed today 🙂
RITB, i don’t think so….It was because of the wind mainly and because rafa was just not at his aggressive best against gasquet. He’l go for corners and lines against novak… but yea good obersvation, rafa sent heavy,deep ground strokes in the centre of the court in neutral rallies to work his way into the point.
A lot of the running forehands were also hit in the middle of the court so as to deny rhythm to djokvic..but if he goes at the middle, he has to ensure depth ! otherwise, nole has a great inside out forehand to punish short balls from the middle of the court
I am referring to the RG match, of course
Yes, depth is key for Rafa, which is why the wind factor will be important. The wind will play havoc with shot timing and this is one of the reasons the Gasquet match ended up being more laborious than it was projected to be.
The wind played havoc in the Serena match too!! Hope Rafa does not get too rattled by it! Vamos!!
I believe Rafa will win perhaps in 4. He has come this far and when Rafa gets to a final we know what we get, his best! He is prepared, he knows what he has to do! He is our warrior, never say die, plays every point likes its the last!!!!
Vamos Rafa, cant wait to see you bite no. 13!!!!
don’t think it’s supposed to be nearly as windy
The last quarter of the season will be intriguing. Federer, Djokovic and Murray have all had considerable success on indoor HC whereas they are Nadal’s least successful surface. To be honest, I will be happy if Rafa puts in credible performances but I’m not convinced he will sustain his current winning streak.
On the other hand he has proved even the pundits wrong so far this year!!!
Post US Open, I hope Rafa restricts his schedule to Shanghai, an indoor 500 and the WTF. He is playing Davis Cup, that’s more than enough.
I dont think he will play more than that RITB..He does not need to either if he wins USO, he is assured of No 1 year end. Only if he does not win today, expect him to play a bit more to rake up points.
Djokovic’s backhand up the line has not been working at all this tournament.(which is his money shot.) That will put him at a major disadvantage if this continues against nadal. So I consider nadal the favourite. Of course, if Djokovic finds the range off the backhand wing in the final, I think he will have a decent chance at winning.