Toronto final preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Tsitsipas

A win by Stefanos Tsitsipas on Sunday would make for one of the all-time great tournament runs in ATP Tour history.

But after becoming the youngest player in history to beat four top-10 players at a single event, it only gets tougher for the Greek. He has taken out the world No. 8 (Dominic Thiem), the world No. 10 (Novak Djokovic), the world No. 3 (Alexander Zverev), and the world No. 6 (Kevin Anderson). Next up for Tsitsipas in the Rogers Cup final is world No. 1 Rafael Nadal.

And while his first four upsets came as a 19-year-old, a fifth would come as a 20-year-old. Yes, Tsitsipas is celebrating his 20th birthday on Sunday in Toronto.

It has been a perfect birthday week so far. The world No. 27 opened with a defeat of Damir Dzumhur, reeled off victories over Thiem, Djokovic, and Zverev, and then saved three match points to outlast Anderson 6-7(4), 6-4, 7-6(7) in Saturday’s first semifinal. Tsitsipas is now 30-18 for his breakout 2018 campaign, having previously won only four career main-tour matches going into this season.

“Playing in a Masters 1000 final is the best thing that can happen on your birthday,” Tsitsipas assured. “I couldn’t achieve anything better in one tournament, beating all those high-ranked players (and) playing amazing tennis.”

Additional good news for the underdog is that his second foray into this head-to-head matchup is not coming on clay. Their only previous encounter came this spring in the Barcelona title match, with Nadal rolling 6-2, 6-1.

Still, it’s not like Tsitsipas is catching Nadal at a particularly good time. The Spaniard is 21-1 in his last 22 matches (39-3 overall this year), building on a typically dominant clay-court swing with a fine showing on grass (Wimbledon semifinals) and perfection thus far on summer hard courts. Nadal booked his spot in championship Sunday with victories at the expense of Benoit Paire, Stan Wawrinka, Marin Cilic, and Karen Khachanov, surrendering just one set to Cilic along the way.

Tsitsipas is most likely correct in that he can’t achieve anything better in one tournament. He would with another win on Sunday, but to say that is easier said than done with Nadal on the other side of the net would be a gross understatement. This is the biggest match of the youngster’s career by far and he will be playing it while depleted in both the physical and mental departments. Moreover, as good as his one-handed backhand is, it may break down amidst the constant barrage of Nadal’s heavy topspin forehand.

Pick: Nadal in 2

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30 Comments on Toronto final preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Tsitsipas

  1. Rafa up two breaks here in the early going. This is the best he’s looked so far here. Seeing the ball very well and knows what he wants to do.

    Francisco Roig told Jason Goodall that ideally Rafa would want to play in the day. His ball jumps in these conditions. But he said the night matches are better for him heat wise.

    Brad Gilbert said today Rafa’s shots are jumping very high. Tough for Tsitsipas to handle.

  2. Rafa has to keep it up. Don’t let this kid in the match. We know he’s not going away.

    Rafa up a break in the second set. If he can hold his serve then it’s over.

    So far Rafa has been brilliant.

  3. TsitsiFAST, is FASTLY picking up form in the 2nd set. He is dangerous now. Nadal has to concentrate and just wins his serves and he can then leave Montreal with his 1st 1000 Masters Title on Hard in 2018!

    Vamos Rafa!

  4. I told you Rafans that this kid TsitsiFAST is dangerous now as he has picked up his to form?

    Now TsitsiFAST is smelling blood and just might snatch the 2nd set from a disappointed rafa in the tiebreaker!

    Rafa c’mmon, fight rafa.

  5. Bcos he always loses focus when hes on top of things and then makes things difficult for himself!! It happens everytime!!!

  6. A couple of costly misses off the forehand in the last stretch of that breaker for Tsitsipas. Not easy to convert against the defense of Rafa though. Great match for both. I thought Stefanos started returning much better towards the end of the second set and that combined with Rafa missing first serves made for a more interesting finale

  7. Rafa wanted to make the match more interesting? Well, he managed to do it at the expense of his fans nerves 😀

    Vamooossss! Congrats Champ! Congrats my fellow Rafans!

  8. Rafa really made us sweat nearing the end of the second set! We know how dangerous this kid is once he’s thrown a lifeline. Rafa always want to make life difficult for us and for himself!

    Why he’s so nervous when closing out the match? Maybe it’s being a long time (five years) since he last won a HC Masters?

    Anyway, we’ll done Rafa for winning your 33rd Masters title. Well done to Tsitsipas too for making the second set more competitive and for coming so far in this tournament. I like Tsitsipas too and he’ll be the player I want to support once Rafa retires from professional tennis.

  9. Terrific 2nd set. The kid trying to butt heads with the GOAT. That was good. Now I hope they ESPN shows the trophy ceremony, dang it!

    Rafa fans can breathe deep and smile now.

  10. #NID

    It’ll be closer next time they play. Rafa came out playing very well, yes. But Tsitsipas looked like a deer caught in headlights for 2/3 of the match and I think that was as much nerves as Rafa.

  11. Rafa said in his in court interview that he played a bad game! Duh! He got nervous. Well he sure manages to make his fans nervous! He is going to give me a heart attack one day!

  12. I can’t believe ESPN is not showing the trophy ceremony! How stupid is that!

    Congratulations to Rafa for extending his Masters wins record to 33! His celebration showed what it meant to him.

    • Seriously annoying for us USA Rafans. Guess we get to watch the Tennis Channel replay or hope someone uploads it to YouTube.

      This is the first Rafa match I’ve watched live since IW 2017 when I watched the Fedal match live, figuring I might not have that many more chances to see them play. I don’t really worry about having a heart attack but I am convinced that watching Rafa live is NOT good for my health, mental or physical, lol! I didn’t think this match would have any stress. Thankfully the stress period was relatively short lived. And I did enjoy it.

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