Toronto final preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Tsitsipas

A win by Stefanos Tsitsipas on Sunday would make for one of the all-time great tournament runs in ATP Tour history.

But after becoming the youngest player in history to beat four top-10 players at a single event, it only gets tougher for the Greek. He has taken out the world No. 8 (Dominic Thiem), the world No. 10 (Novak Djokovic), the world No. 3 (Alexander Zverev), and the world No. 6 (Kevin Anderson). Next up for Tsitsipas in the Rogers Cup final is world No. 1 Rafael Nadal.

And while his first four upsets came as a 19-year-old, a fifth would come as a 20-year-old. Yes, Tsitsipas is celebrating his 20th birthday on Sunday in Toronto.

It has been a perfect birthday week so far. The world No. 27 opened with a defeat of Damir Dzumhur, reeled off victories over Thiem, Djokovic, and Zverev, and then saved three match points to outlast Anderson 6-7(4), 6-4, 7-6(7) in Saturday’s first semifinal. Tsitsipas is now 30-18 for his breakout 2018 campaign, having previously won only four career main-tour matches going into this season.

“Playing in a Masters 1000 final is the best thing that can happen on your birthday,” Tsitsipas assured. “I couldn’t achieve anything better in one tournament, beating all those high-ranked players (and) playing amazing tennis.”

Additional good news for the underdog is that his second foray into this head-to-head matchup is not coming on clay. Their only previous encounter came this spring in the Barcelona title match, with Nadal rolling 6-2, 6-1.

Still, it’s not like Tsitsipas is catching Nadal at a particularly good time. The Spaniard is 21-1 in his last 22 matches (39-3 overall this year), building on a typically dominant clay-court swing with a fine showing on grass (Wimbledon semifinals) and perfection thus far on summer hard courts. Nadal booked his spot in championship Sunday with victories at the expense of Benoit Paire, Stan Wawrinka, Marin Cilic, and Karen Khachanov, surrendering just one set to Cilic along the way.

Tsitsipas is most likely correct in that he can’t achieve anything better in one tournament. He would with another win on Sunday, but to say that is easier said than done with Nadal on the other side of the net would be a gross understatement. This is the biggest match of the youngster’s career by far and he will be playing it while depleted in both the physical and mental departments. Moreover, as good as his one-handed backhand is, it may break down amidst the constant barrage of Nadal’s heavy topspin forehand.

Pick: Nadal in 2

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26 Comments on Toronto final preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Tsitsipas

  1. Rafa has plAyed every match if his at night n final us daytime…different conditions…will it matter ? Tsitsipas has played all matches daytime

  2. Rafa is a better player with elements like sun and wind. The court is lively when there is sun overhead. So I think it will be better for nadal.

  3. Rafa in two hopefully; if not then in three. Tsitsipas has a very good tricky serve and Rafa may have problems dealing with it. He had problem breaking Khachanov’s big serve I believe (didn’t get to watch their SF match) so Rafa needs to serve well to hold his own serve and maybe he has to win in TB sets?

    • Rafa had issues with Khachanov’s serve, but seemed to get a handle on it as the match went on. He was able to take advantage of this guy’s one-dimensional game. He does not have the skills of a Cilic.

      Both guys had very similar serve stats. But Rafa was able to counter his power with the variety in his game. His volleys at net, using the drop shot, giving him different looks.

      I think Tsitsipas has no fear and no pressure in this final. He should be relaxed and able to go for his shots. He does not give up. He is strong mentally. He is riding a high now.

      But I think Rafa wants this title a lot. He will give it everything he’s got and fight all the way. I am betting on him to get the win. It could go two or three sets. I do hope that Rafa can adjust to the different conditions playing in the day. I also hope he can serve well.

  4. This match might be more important than we perceive it right now, whoever wins. Imagine (if) Tsitsipas becoming a great player in history winning many titles, this encounter with Nadal could remain as another Sampras-Federer later on. People will remember the amazing short period when Rafa and Stefanos used to be active players at the same time.

  5. So thrilled to see Rafa playing well on the hard-courts again and apparently free from pain – although one can never know for sure because he is adept at concealing it during his matches. For sure Tsitipas will make it tough for Rafa but I doubt very much he will cause a major upset.

    Rafa in 3 with at least one if not two TBs.

  6. I’m out of the business of picking for this one.

    What I mean is: Rafa in 2 probably, but Tsitsipas winning his first Masters title would be miraculous, lol, as has been this whole tournament for him.

      • Yep, Eugene probably Rafa. But Rafa will give the Greek many ideas to work on. Stefanos is like a sponge, learning and soaking it up right now.
        Hope the weather in Toronto holds up so there’s no delays. I’m worried about the weather in Cincy all week too…..even as far out as US Open could be a wash out, unless things change. Meanwhile, the Pacific Coast states and Boise have recorded the hottest temperatures in the country the past week – drops of rain are needed!

  7. Stefanos Tsitsipas deserves this trophy more than Rafa.

    It would be hard for him to win it but I hope Stefanos wins it.

    Good luck, you will need it.

    Vamos S. Tsitsipas!

  8. Today is a hard day for me. Rafa has been an important part of my life since I met him. I have enjoyed, as much as he, all his triumphs and I have suffered, probably more than him, every one of his defeats. I still hurt, especially, Wimbledon 18 (it was a steal for me) and Australia 14 (with Rafa injured, but playing).
    Spain, in particular, owes much more than we think because it has been a great star in our low years as a nation.
    Today I hope he wins his 33th Master 1000 but it is the first time in my life that I believe that, if he does not win, I will not suffer as much as usually do.
    I think it’s a historical moment in which Tsitsipas, someone with a head and way of understanding tennis similar to Rafa, although they play different, can start to shine and hopefully it will be an example like Rafa do for the whole world of sports and for the youth in general. Come on Rafa

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