Shanghai SF previews and predictions: Federer vs. Del Potro, Nadal vs. Cilic

A pair of marquee semifinal matchups are on Saturday’s schedule at the Shanghai Masters. Roger Federer is going up against Juan Martin Del Potro, while Rafael Nadal is facing Marin Cilic. Del Potro, however, may be dealing with another wrist injury.

(16) Juan Martin Del Potro vs. (2) Roger Federer

Federer and Del Potro will be squaring off for the 23rd time in their careers and for the third time this season when they clash in the semifinals of the Shanghai Rolex Masters on Saturday. The head-to-head series stands at 16-6 in Federer’s favor, but Del Potro recently prevailed 7-5, 3-6, 7-6(8), 6-4 in the U.S. Open quarters. Federer had previously won three in a row at the Argentine’s expense, including via a 6-3, 6-4 decision at the Miami Open this spring.

Although the 36-year-old Swiss may not be in quite the same form that carried him to the Australian Open title and back-to-back trophies in Indian Wells and Miami, he is still flying high at No. 2 in the world and in distant contention for the year-end top ranking. Federer has advanced this week with straight-set defeats of Diego Schwartzman, Alexandr Dolgopolov, and Richard Gasquet. The script seems to be flipped from when these two competitors collided a couple of months ago in New York, where Federer was dealing with a back injury. Now it is Del Potro who is a question mark, as he suffered a fall against Viktor Troicki on Friday and may have re-injured his left wrist. The 16th seed could be running on fumes, anyway, because he required three tough sets to get past both Troicki and Alexander Zverev. All signs point to Federer avenging his U.S. Open loss to Del Potro.

Pick: Federer in 2

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(1) Rafael Nadal vs. (4) Marin Cilic

Are we in line for a Nadal vs. Federer showdown, after it was derailed by Del Potro at Flushing Meadows? It’s possible, but Nadal may have an especially tough one on his hands against Cilic. The fifth-ranked Croat, who will climb to a new career-high mark of No. 4 next week, is 39-16 this season with a runner-up performance at Wimbledon. He is 8-1 since the U.S. Open, highlighted by a semifinal showing last week in Tokyo preceding straight-set wins in Shanghai over Kyle Edmund, Steve Johnson, and Albert Ramos-Vinolas.

Cilic is a mediocre 1-4 lifetime against Nadal heading into Saturday’s contest, but his lone victory came during the Asian swing (albeit way back in 2009, when he cruised 6-1, 6-3 in Beijing). Of course, this is not the same Nadal as the one who limped down the stretch of the 2009 campaign. The top-ranked Spaniard is 15-0 in his last 15 matches, a stretch that includes titles at the U.S. Open and in Beijing. Two quick outings against Jared Donaldson and Fabio Fognini were just what the doctor orderer earlier this week, but Nadal needed two hours and 32 minutes to scrape past Grigor Dimitrov 6-4, 6-7(4), 6-3 on Friday. When playing well, as he is now, Cilic has the game that can trouble Nadal–serve huge and punish any short balls with flat groundstrokes. On a fast surface against an opponent who may be fatigued, the underdog may be able to execute that plan to perfection.

Pick: Cilic in 3

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23 Comments on Shanghai SF previews and predictions: Federer vs. Del Potro, Nadal vs. Cilic

  1. I’m so confused reading the comments as to how he played. Its very mixed almost like a film review is :-).

    The only consistent feeling is he played not as good as Beijing . That’s okay. We got to understand rafa knows cilic won’t implode like nick and rafa can’t bank on that. Rafa has to play mix of attack and defense to either go for the kill or have nick make the errors. The only thing that worries me is he losing serve serving both sets and that too with his now much better serve and this is not a final where you do get title nerves and tighten up.

  2. The positive thing is Rafa even if he loses tomorrow will be 2000 points plus in lead over fed and Fed will have to mandatorily win both Basel and Paris to have a chance.

    2000 right lucky in race ahead even if he loses to fed tomorrow and Fed wins the title ?

  3. Credit has to be given to Cilic. After struggling through his first two service games and it looked like Rafa had the upper hand, Cilic still fought hard to make it close and Rafa only edged him in two tight sets.

    This was one of the best matches I saw Cilic played, he might have won this match if his opponent wasn’t Rafa.

  4. Delpo serving from a tree. He’s serving so well right now, I hope he gives Fed a good fight. At last he holds serve a bit easier in his first two service games than Cilic!

  5. Like Monalisa I am not overwhelmed by Fed’s level right now. He’s winning plenty of free points with good serving and can dig himself out of trouble with clutch play when needed: but he’s also making a lot more UEs and isunderstandably slower around the court.

    Although Delpo is bravely taking to the court it is doubtful he will be in a fit state to stop the eagerly anticipated
    Fedal final.

  6. Yeah, I also think that Fed isn’t playing all that well tbh. His opponents (except Delpo) are relatively easier opponents than Rafa’s.

    It’s really tough playing against big serving giants on this surface esp when they’re also big match players – slam winners – and playing close to their best level. Fedal really have their work cut out in these SFs.

    Fed in trouble here in the first set. Rafa survived the first set SP and then won the set. Let’s see whether Fed can do the same.

  7. I think Fed just doesn’t have it like he did in the first part of the season. He should not be struggling against post-surgery Del Po like he has been lately. He will never have a chance at AO if he keeps playing these late season tournies. Not sure what he’s thinking at this point… Maybe he’s in denial about his age and condition?

  8. Federer is doing everything here to avoid Rafa, lol!!

    Can u believe it?! Is delpo becoming Fed’s rival once more?!

    If Fed is to win here, it’s has to be in 3, Rafa is licking His chops!!

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