Shanghai SF previews and predictions: Federer vs. Del Potro, Nadal vs. Cilic

A pair of marquee semifinal matchups are on Saturday’s schedule at the Shanghai Masters. Roger Federer is going up against Juan Martin Del Potro, while Rafael Nadal is facing Marin Cilic. Del Potro, however, may be dealing with another wrist injury.

(16) Juan Martin Del Potro vs. (2) Roger Federer

Federer and Del Potro will be squaring off for the 23rd time in their careers and for the third time this season when they clash in the semifinals of the Shanghai Rolex Masters on Saturday. The head-to-head series stands at 16-6 in Federer’s favor, but Del Potro recently prevailed 7-5, 3-6, 7-6(8), 6-4 in the U.S. Open quarters. Federer had previously won three in a row at the Argentine’s expense, including via a 6-3, 6-4 decision at the Miami Open this spring.

Although the 36-year-old Swiss may not be in quite the same form that carried him to the Australian Open title and back-to-back trophies in Indian Wells and Miami, he is still flying high at No. 2 in the world and in distant contention for the year-end top ranking. Federer has advanced this week with straight-set defeats of Diego Schwartzman, Alexandr Dolgopolov, and Richard Gasquet. The script seems to be flipped from when these two competitors collided a couple of months ago in New York, where Federer was dealing with a back injury. Now it is Del Potro who is a question mark, as he suffered a fall against Viktor Troicki on Friday and may have re-injured his left wrist. The 16th seed could be running on fumes, anyway, because he required three tough sets to get past both Troicki and Alexander Zverev. All signs point to Federer avenging his U.S. Open loss to Del Potro.

Pick: Federer in 2

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(1) Rafael Nadal vs. (4) Marin Cilic

Are we in line for a Nadal vs. Federer showdown, after it was derailed by Del Potro at Flushing Meadows? It’s possible, but Nadal may have an especially tough one on his hands against Cilic. The fifth-ranked Croat, who will climb to a new career-high mark of No. 4 next week, is 39-16 this season with a runner-up performance at Wimbledon. He is 8-1 since the U.S. Open, highlighted by a semifinal showing last week in Tokyo preceding straight-set wins in Shanghai over Kyle Edmund, Steve Johnson, and Albert Ramos-Vinolas.

Cilic is a mediocre 1-4 lifetime against Nadal heading into Saturday’s contest, but his lone victory came during the Asian swing (albeit way back in 2009, when he cruised 6-1, 6-3 in Beijing). Of course, this is not the same Nadal as the one who limped down the stretch of the 2009 campaign. The top-ranked Spaniard is 15-0 in his last 15 matches, a stretch that includes titles at the U.S. Open and in Beijing. Two quick outings against Jared Donaldson and Fabio Fognini were just what the doctor orderer earlier this week, but Nadal needed two hours and 32 minutes to scrape past Grigor Dimitrov 6-4, 6-7(4), 6-3 on Friday. When playing well, as he is now, Cilic has the game that can trouble Nadal–serve huge and punish any short balls with flat groundstrokes. On a fast surface against an opponent who may be fatigued, the underdog may be able to execute that plan to perfection.

Pick: Cilic in 3

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40 Comments on Shanghai SF previews and predictions: Federer vs. Del Potro, Nadal vs. Cilic

  1. Last time Nadal and Cilic faced each other on a surface like this was in Acapulco – and Rafa destroyed him. Cilic is playing well, but not consistently. His US Open was piss poor.

      • Federer hadn’t played for seven months when he started the Australian Open this year. And we all know how that went. Despite not playing in a while, Cilic was one of the only prominent players in that bottom half of the US draw, so it was still a surprise to see him go out so early.

        And I don’t see how Cilic’s suddenly so impressive after one week of playing well. Nadal’s been playing well non stop for months now. Cilic may well beat Rafa, but it’ll be a big surprise nontheless.

  2. According to Tennis.com DelPo’s wrist was bruised (contused) but thankfully it’s not a serious injury. He’ll decide tomorrow whether to play the semi.

    • That’s good news for DelPo. If he re-tore, or whatever it was, his wrist again… That could have been the end of it for him. I guess I should probably change my prediction to Fed in 2 instead of 3, as it will take a monumental effort for DelPo to get a set off Fed if he’s injured. I wouldn’t be surprised if Fed got a walkover. That’s disappointing, as I was looking forward to another DelPo/Fed match.

  3. Got Nadal in 3 (like the over here) and Fed in 2 (if Delpo dares to show up and not retire!lol)

    Nadal may have taken 2 hours and 32 minutes to finish Dimitrov but it will not deter Nadal from winning tomorrow’s SF match against Cilic. Nadal will win tomorrow at any cost (may be an ugly win in 3 tight sets but he will surely win for reasons given below!) because:-

    1) Nadal is motivated to win this Tournament and others before 2017 ends and remain as the unbeaten Champion of BOTH CLAY & HARD surface and remain No.1 for 2017 and show that he is the REAL GOAT (along with Federer)!

    2) Nadal is pumped by the fact that if he wins tomorrow (and he will surely), he can play Federer in the Final and beat Fed (hopefully) and take revenge for the 2016 AO FINALE loss.

    3) Nadal being so close to the title here besides the attraction of a big paycheck (Nadal loves BIG MONEY! Ask him if you doubt it! That too after beating Federer. This money will then be all the more sweeter for Nadal!lol) and 1000 ATP points will not leave any stone unturned to win tomorrow in the SF against Cilic, an opponent he has beaten 4 times before!

    4) Nadal is used to playing long and tough matches in the QF and SF’s and still winning the finals (check his past accomplishments in this situation) as NADAL IS A BEAST of a man! Nadal has great strength and endurance unlike other players. He has a great team with him in Uncle Tony, Carlos Moya, his Physios and trainers who will provide proper rest, massage, exercise, Nutrition, Electrolytes etc. etc. to make Nadal battle ready for the SF (for a guaranteed win) and the Finals (Anything can happen here. Anyone can win. Will predict the Finale winner after Nadal’s SF win)!

    Nadal’s tiredness will disappear (with the help of his team) as Nadal will be looking at what is at stake for him with the win of the Title at Shanghai Rolex Masters 1000 ATP Tournament (as listed in points 1,2 and 3 above).

    Got Nadal in 3 and Fed in 2 (if Delpo dares to show up and not retire!lol)

    I won’t be surprised if Nadal beats Cilic in 2.But not betting on it! Just in 3 or the over!

    Remember how you wrongly predicted the Beijing Open Finals (given below):-

    “Sunday-10-08-17

    Beijing:
    Nadal over Kyrgios in 3”

    But Nadal squished Kyrgios like a bug! The same can happen tomorrow(but not predicting it).

    But just predicting a Nadal win in 3. It may be a dirty win (in 3 tight sets) but who cares! We just want a Nadal win (to setup a juicy Finale with Federer) tomorrow over Cilic (an opponent Nadal has beaten 4 times. Nadal has Cilic’s number!lol) and Nadal will deliver and make his RaFANS happy! I am also a FEDan! I am a fan of great talent and skill(be it Caroline Garcia or Wozniacki or Nadal or Federer)! Ricky are you not a RaFAN like us?

    Got Nadal in 3 (like the over here) and Fed in 2 (if Delpo dares to show up and not retire!lol)

    What you got RaFANS?

  4. Just out of curiosity- what was the story with the extremely one-sided Rafa/Cilic match in Acapulco? Was Rafa really good? Was Cilic really bad? Or a combo of each? Was Cilic coming back from injury? I’m just surprised by such a one-sided score line with Cilic…

    • You can’t forget how badly Cilic played in the beginning of the year. For the first three months, the highest ranked person he beat was Borna Coric, who was ranked 61 at the time and it also took three sets. He also lost to Jozef Kozvalik, Dustin Brown, and Taylor Fritz during the first three months. Cilic also had seven break points against Rafa, but couldn’t convert any of them.

    • Kevin, that’s not unusual. The only unusual one was Cilic beating Rafa 61 63 in Beijing in 2009, the first time they met. In 2009, Rafa had issues. The other 4 wins Rafa has so far against him were easy enough.

      2017 Acapulco SF Hard Rafael Nadal def Marin Cilic 6-1 6-2
      2015 Basel QF Hard Rafael Nadal def Marin Cilic 4-6 6-3 6-3
      2011 Rome Masters QF Clay Rafael Nadal def Marin Cilic 6-1 6-3
      2011 Australian Open R16 Hard Rafael Nadal def Marin Cilic 6-2 6-4 6-3
      2009 Beijing SF Hard Marin Cilic def Rafael Nadal 6-1 6-3

  5. Mostly Delpo will retire to be safe. Even if he shows up he will not be able to play backhands much and Roger for sure will target backhand and rightfully so. So fed will win no matter what. Between rafa and Cilic it is very hard to choose. Rafa is fatigued but may win in 3 close sets. if Roger/Rafa reach Final, well rested Roger in 2 + Rafa may have some mental block from his defeats to Roger earlier this year (I wish Rafa should win as it will be his first Shanghai title but can’t say 100% yes)

    • Actually, I don’t think Delpo is really injured but I don’t blame him for making sure because of the history of his wrist. More injury time out because of that might be his final hurrah.

  6. Why does everyone says Nadal is tired? He had a long break between the French and Wimbledon and then didn’t play much in the U.S swing. Won U.S and Beijing but only dropped a small amount of sets. He had a 3-4 day break in between Beijing and Shanghai!

  7. Even though he’s getting older, 31 is not that old, and Rafa has always been one of the fittest, well-conditioned players on the tour. Shit, he’s arguably one of the fittest athletes of all-time, imo. 31 is not 25. But it’s also not 35. From a visual standpoint, he looks to me to be in some of the best shape over ever seen him in. He looks like he is about 0.00001% body fat right now, with crazy muscle tone.

    • Rafa is not tired! I don’t know where people are getting this! Rafa is riding a winning streak right now. He is doing well in a time of year when he usually does not have much success!

      Rafa has not overplayed! How much easier could his first two matches have been? One three set match and people are freaking out!

      After Shanghai Rafa and his team can assess where he’s at. Rafa is competing well and playing outstanding tennis.

      Let’s just enjoy it!

      • You (foreignworker if outside USA!lol),Kevin, THj are all right about Nadal.

        Nadal and his team must be reading all the negative things people are saying about Nadal. That will infact fuel Rafa to be play more focused and win convincingly today if possible like in the past H2H’s.

        But we as RaFANS are just expecting a win in 3(2 also possible) sets.

        Rrrrrrrrrrrrrrr….Ruff,Ruff,Ruff….Rafa be aggressive like a bulldog and maul the chilling Cilic and win!lol

        But be also focused, energized, confident and strong to be VICTORIOUS!

        You will hear the cheers and encouragement from every one of you RaFANS from all over the Galaxy. What? Maybe this globe, which will give you 1000x energy and make your enemies/doubters tired instead of you!Ha,ha,ha… You will then be the ‘He man of the Universe” to dominate all men (OK your opponents only!lol)!

        Vamos “Ruff and Tuf” Rafa

    • I love the comment at october 14, 2017 at 12:59 AM, a true, unbiased and fearless fan.

      Rafa’s 1st and 2nd match were less than 2 hours, F. Fognini( 1 hour, 4 minutes.), J. Donaldson( 55 minutes.) = 1 hour, 59 minutes the were less than 2 hours lol!

      Those who are making excuses 4 R. Nadal are afraid and are trying to play it safe, it won’t work on me.
      B4 this tournament started, i knew that if R. Federer wasn’t battling an injury he would win it, irrespective of who he faces or how many hours he spends on a match.

      R. Nadal is 31 yrs old, the total time he spent in his 3 matches in Shanghai is 4hrs 34 minutes.

      R. Federer is 36 yrs old, the total time spent in his 3 matches in Shanghai is 3hrs 56 minutes.

      Difference in time= 38 minutes.

      When R. Federer won miami( Masters) by beating R. Nadal in straight sets 6-3, 6-4, he played N. Kyrgios in the semifinal and he won that match in 3 sets, 3 tiebreaks, 7-6(9), 6(9)-7, 7-6(5)( 3 hours 15 minutes), his QF vs T. Berdych was also decided in 3 sets 6-2, 3-6, 7-6(6)( 1 hour 59 minutes), R. Federer spent a total of 5 hrs 14 minutes before he smoked Nadal in the finals.

      In miami, R. Nadal defeated F. Fognini in the SF 6-1, 7-5( 1 hour 31 minutes), in the QF he defeated J. Sock 6-2, 6-3( 1hr 25 minutes), Rafa spent a total of 2hrs 56 minutes in those 2 matches and lost to the best tennis player of the year in 2 easy sets.
      Difference in hours= 2 hours 18 minutes, that’s a lot, i can travel to Shanghai right now and be back and it won’t take 2hrs 18 minutes, just 2 hours, 17 minutes 59 seconds lol!

      Same thing happened to both players in Australian Open, lots of 5 sets and 4 sets, i don’t have the time to explain.

      Very soon R. Federer will take this baby home.

      #NOEXCUSES

      • What about Beijing? You forgot so quickly? YOU were the one who commented that they should have finish Beijing first before they start Shanghai, weren’t you? He didn’t even enjoy his win in Beijing as he has to be transported to Shanghai right after the trophy was handed to him.

        Rafa is playing back2back tournaments without at least a week break, so who is making excuses?

        • Don’t misunderstand, i don’t have time to respond to this, your comment doesn’t make sense in a way.

          If you carefully but everything together u will understand.

  8. Based on stats & history, this match points to R. Nadal winning in 2 sets or winning & under 22.5 games.

    Who knows what M. Cilic will do?
    I want R. Nadal in finals, i demand a Fedal.

    • Who knows what M. Cilic will do? What?

      Cilic will serve and volley. That is what beastly/giantly (like Isner, Querry etc.) men do! Infact, that is the only thing they do!Ha,ha,ha…

    • Well done Sara shah!
      Roger Federer will win Shanghai.

      The End.

      One more thing, this is the 1st time i am reading your comment, so what’s up?

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