Shanghai final preview and pick: Federer vs. Simon

Roger Federer will be bidding for his 23rd Masters 1000 title and second in a row when he takes the court on Sunday in Shanghai. Standing in his way is Gilles Simon.

Roger Federer and Gilles Simon will be facing each other for the seventh time in their careers when they battle for the Shanghai Rolex Masters title on Sunday.

Relative to the vast majority of Federer’s other opponents, Simon has accounted himself extremely well against the 17-time Grand Slam champion. Federer leads the head-to-head series 4-2, but one win came via retirement and two others came in five sets–at the 2011 Australian Open and 2013 French Open. Simon beat the Swiss twice in 2008; 2-6, 7-5, 6-4 at the Rogers Cup and 4-6, 6-4, 6-3 at the year-end championship. The two veterans have split their four previous hard-court encounters.

Both men endured disappointing 2013 campaigns, but they have suddenly found some of the best form of their careers. Federer triumphed at the Cincinnati Masters, reached the semifinals of the U.S. Open, helped Switzerland reach the Davis Cup final, and is now on fire in Shanghai after saving five match points in his opener. Since surviving Leonardo Mayer, the 33-year-old Swiss has defeated Roberto Bautista Agut, Julien Benneteau, and Novak Djokovic without losing a set. Federer is 60-10 for the season and will climb to No. 2 in the world on Monday.

“I’m not going to come into the match and play terrible,” Federer assured. “It just won’t happen–not in the finals; not against Simon. That’s the confidence I have right now.”
Fed
Simon took a while to heat up in 2014, but he has successfully done just that. The 29th-ranked Frenchman made it to round four of the U.S. Open (fell to eventual champion Marin Cilic in five sets), reached last week’s Tokyo semis, and earned a spot in his second-ever Masters 1000 final by taking out Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, Stan Wawrinka, Malek Jaziri, Tomas Berdych, and Feliciano Lopez. Simon will be back in the top 20 for the first time since February when the next rankings are revealed.

“When I’m playing good, I can play at (Federer’s) level,” Simon commented. “This I’m not worried about. The question is whether I will be able to do it tomorrow. I just know more about the top guys–about how it’s going to be tomorrow. It’s not new anymore. I just hope it will help me to play a great match.”
Simon wins 2
Simon’s best chance, just as it is against almost all of his opponents, is to play consistent baseline tennis and break Federer down in long rallies while also pulling the trigger at opportune times. Unfortunately for the underdog, Federer played extremely aggressive tennis against Djokovic–getting to the net 35 times and winning 20 of those points. If the No. 3 seed utilizes similar tactics, he will take Simon out of his comfort zone and capture a 23rd Masters 1000 trophy.

Pick: Federer in 2 with at least one tiebreaker

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81 Comments on Shanghai final preview and pick: Federer vs. Simon

  1. As Koenig pointed out, Federer played just well enough. No point speculating what might have been had Simon not had a groin problem compounded by a nasty fall.
    Congratulations to the Fed.

  2. ed251137@October 12, 2014 at 10:44 am
    —I-m not joining the Federazzi!!!!!!!!—

    The word ‘FEDERAZZI’ is created and copyrighted by hawkeye63. I think, only he knows its meaning – he is the only one who has categorized Rafa fans here as the “FEDERAZZI.”

  3. They closed the roof for him.
    They chose the ball for him, so it would bounce low aiding his net-rushing game, disadvantaging the baseliners.
    They enforced the time between serves for him.
    They served Lindt chocolate on changeovers…………

    • Not all of us have hatred for the old man. I also don’t know that I like the use of that word. That’s going overboard. Some of us are able to give him respect for doing well at the ripe old age of 33. If some want to blame it on an injury or the roof being closed or whatever, the fact is that Fed won. It’s also true that Simon made a great effort and gave it all he had. He pushed Fed a lot harder than Novak did. Too bad Simon couldn’t have held onto that break of serve in the first set. He came out playing really well. Then he hung in there in that second set and didn’t quit. I am proud of him. I would have loved to see Simon get the upset, but he did his best.

      • nativenewyorker7@October 13, 2014 at 2:55 am
        —Not all of us have hatred for the old man—

        How do you dare to use strong language?! ‘Hatred” is strong language according to chloro (Sept.2014)!

  4. What is depressing is the serious risk (sorry I should say possibility) we will have to endure more smirking smugness if he adds a Davis Cup win to his CV. With Tsonga and Monfils both injured and now possibly Simon Arnaud Clement’s choice of experienced DC players has been drastically reduced.

  5. Fed feels unshackled without Rafa; he may lose to this or that player every now and again but at the end of the day only one guy can take him out on a regular basis. Murray used to be a threat but has lost that edge; Nole never had the upper hand over Fed and always struggled to beat him and when he does he has to fight Fed off in long matches.

    Rafa should realise by now that if you take Nole away from the baseline and stop feeding him balls to field from there he gets rattled. Last week, Berdy beat himself and Nole made the most of it and appeared invincible, but I wasn’t taken in by that at all.

    • “Rafa should realise by now that if you take Nole away from the baseline and stop feeding him balls to field from there he gets rattled.”

      So true. Fed exploited that to perfection yesterday. It was so obvious Djok is scared of coming to the net because he always invariably ends up making an ass of himself.

      RT @IlijaLek: “Federer’s not an idiot, he’s seen that Djokovic is reluctant to lob, that’s why he pushing so close to the net.”

  6. At age 33, Roger is playing high quality tennis at a sustained level. He’s reached the finals of 5 Masters this year (IW, M/C, Toronto, Cinn, and Shanghai), and won 2 of them. He made the semis in 2 GS’s and the finals in another. He’s won more matches than any other player on tour this year and he didn’t do it by vulturing a lot of 250 tournaments. He’s gone deep into nearly every tournament he’s played. What’s more, he’s learned that as he’s aged, he needs to adapt his game and has done so. It’s quite an accomplishment. As a tennis fan, it’ll be fun to see how long he can maintain this resurgence.

    • Ditto Jpacnw, truly impressive year for Fed. He was scary close to winning Wimby. Could have gone either way. Still can’t count him out at slams!

      This is what makes tennis fun to watch.

      iMO it won’t work against Rafa in general, but indoors it would be quite close.

    • jpacnw,

      Brava! Well said! I recorded the final and didn’t get to watch until later today. It was worth the wait. I give Fed all due credit for coming back strong this year. You listed his achievements, so no need for me to repeat it. But that speaks to his commitment, love of the game and determination not to let age stop him.

      Considering where he was at the end of last year, Fed’s done well for himself. I tip my hat.

  7. At the begining I said Fed was the only one who could stop Nole…so he did…beating Nole he deserved the title…Simon was never a threat anyway…

  8. Novak has spent the better part of his life working out an anti-Rafa strategy. He may need to turn his attention to working out an anti-Fed strategy, kinda embarrassing getting regularly walloped by an old man like that…………

    • ^^It’s true that Roger’s game is just not a good match-up for Novak. As we know, Rafa’s entire natural game is an anti-Roger strategy. As I’ve watched Roger adapt some of his techniques this year, I always picture how they’ll work against Rafa. Want to come to the net that often? Go for it. He’ll get passed by the perhaps the best passing shotmaker on tour. That said, certain surfaces will continue to alleviate Rafa’s natural advantage and there might be the rare occasion where Roger can pull out a win. As for Novak and Roger, it’ll be interesting to see how much energy Novak devotes to counteracting Roger’s game. With the 6 year age gap, time is on Novak’s side.
      From a purely selfish Rafa fan standpoint, I’d like nothing more than to always see Roger across the net from Rafa in a final. I always like those odds. I’m sure Rafa would prefer seeing Roger across the net, too.

      • ^^Setting aside previous matches and looking at 2014 only i.e. the year Fed’s new game really came into its own, Rafa beat Fed comfortably in Australia, even with a troublesome blister to contend with.

        Watching Novak play Fed, I can’t help but think: Novak just does not turn up for Fed the way he turns up for Rafa, and BB sort of confirmed this at US Open this year, not so much in reference to Fed though. No question, Rafa’s game evolved around how to beat Fed and it just seems to me the same applies to Novak’s game in relation to Rafa. After 2011, you could see Rafa going back to the drawing board to re-learn how to beat Novak. I just do not see that evolution in Novak’s game with regard to Fed. It’s as if Novak believed the propaganda that he was Fed’s successor and thus did not need to learn to counter him. Gillou troubled Fed (in the 1st set at least) more than Novak did yesterday in my view.

        Fed’s problem against Rafa is not just a match-up issue, it’s an attitude problem too. Rafa just does not like losing to Fed, and Fed loses to Rafa before they take to the court……

    • I’m sure Djokovic was rubbing his hands in glee when Rafa exited the tour for three months thinking he would have a clear run at the USO and in Asia. Nor, I’m sure, did he expect Federer to increase the h2h against him and be snapping at his heels for the No.1 spot.

      Wasn’t it also around this time of the year when he regained the No.1 ranking during Rafa’s 2012 annus hornbills?

      #WhileTheCatIsAwayFedererWillPlay

      • Watching Rafa/Roger matches is the tennis version of the movie Groundhog Day. The AO this year was the classic example. Roger put up the good fight in the first set then lost the tie-break. After that, his confidence as well as his endurance for what was to come, were just slowly and surely eroded. Rafa went into his “resistance is futile” mode, and that was that. It’ll be interesting to see if Roger’s success this year will improve his mindset against Rafa, particularly at the beginning of the season when Rafa will be returning from surgery and may be lacking in confidence.

      • Fed’s best chance of stealing some wins against Rafa are this Fall indoor season if Rafa plays up to WTF and has surgery after, which is what he has indicated he will do…….

      • You are right jpacnw…

        Rafa Says:
        “I think he tried to play very aggressive, taking the ball very early,” Nadal said. “But if you go to YouTube and you see the video of 2012 match [in which Nadal defeated Federer in the semis here in four sets], you will see that he was playing very, very aggressive, too. …

        “I saw that video today. I see the way that he will try to play again. But the important thing for me is to serve well, to resist [his charge] in the beginning [because] when the match is longer, that’s more difficult physically to play with that intensity — to play that aggressive [for] a few hours. Mentally and physically, it’s very tough.”

        #WeatherTheStorm

      • Ricky,

        Thanks for the reminder! Very true! Simon had his chance to get the second set and force a third set. He had two break points against Fed. He came up short.

  9. Simon pushed Fed every inch of the way but as I said during the match it was obvious he was struggling after the MTO. Federer could see the lateral movement to the right was compromised and ruthlessly worked on that at every opportunity. Even if Simon had stayed 100% fit I suspect Federer would still have beaten him but over three sets. Like Rafa, Roger has the ability to win important matches even when he is not playing well. Simon deserves more praise than he got for keeping it as competitive as he did to the very end..

    • ed,

      I agree with your post @ 6:49 pm on all counts. Well said!

      It’s interesting to realize that Fed was a bunch of match points away from losing in the second round. Mayer should have won that match. But Fed is much like Rafa is being able to win matches when not playing well. I have always said that this is one thing that separates the great champions from the rest of the pack. They can win when they are not playing their best.

      I was so proud of Simon for just staying in it and giving Fed a real battle. He can hold his head high, because he gave it his best.

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