Rome R2 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Kohlschreiber, Kyrgios vs. Raonic

Rafael Nadal will be part of a jam-packed schedule in Rome as second-round action continues on Wednesday, and he faces a potentially tough opener against Philipp Kohlschreiber. Milos Raonic and Nick Kyrgios are also in action.

Philipp Kohlschreiber vs. (5) Rafael Nadal

Nadal will be looking to bounce back from a Madrid semifinal loss to Andy Murray when he takes the court at the Internazionali BNL d’Italia on Wednesday. The fifth-Spaniard captured back-to-back titles on the clay courts of Monte-Carlo and Barcelona, but his momentum–and his quest for the No. 4 seed at Roland Garros–took a hit last week. Conditions in Rome, however, have always been more advantageous for Nadal than they are in Madrid. He is 47-4 lifetime at this tournament with seven titles.

Up first for Nadal is Kohlschreiber, who is a futile 1-12 in their ATP-level head-to-head series. The nine-time French Open champion is 4-0 at Kohlschreiber’s expense on clay with set scores of 6-2, 6-3, 6-1, 6-3, 6-2, 6-4, 6-3, and 6-3. They just faced each other in Barcelona, where Nadal had no trouble coasting through a semifinal contest. Kohlschreiber set up this rematch by rolling over qualifier Inigo Cervantes 6-4, 6-2 on Tuesday afternoon. The 26th-ranked German is 20-9 for the season and 12-4 in his last 16 matches, but he is a horrendous 0-21 in his last 21 non-retirement efforts against top-10 opponents.

Pick: Nadal in 2

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(10) Milos Raonic vs. Nick Kyrgios

Raonic and Kyrgios will be squaring off for the fifth time in their careers on Wednesday. The head-to-head series stands at 2-2, but Raonic won their only previous clay-court encounter 6-3, 7-6(1), 6-3 two years ago at Roland Garros. They split a pair of Wimbledon showdowns in 2014 and 2015 before Kyrgios extended his winning streak against the Canadian to two by prevailing 6-4, 7-6(4) two months ago in the Miami quarterfinals.
Kyrgios
Both big hitters are coming off Monday victories over Italian wild cards, although they took much different routes to find the winner’s circle. Kyrgios crushed little-known Salvatore Caruso 6-1, 6-2, while Raonic scraped past a more established competitor in Marco Cecchinato 6-4, 4-6, 6-4. Despite not being at his very best, the world No. 10 improved to 24-5 for a season in which he has not yet lost prior to the quarterfinals of any tournament. Kyrgios is 20-6 and has reached at least the quarterfinals in five of seven events in 2016. The 20-year-old Australian may be more reliable from the baseline than his opponent, but Raonic wields an even bigger serve and his current match toughness may be unequaled by anyone except Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray. This could be a scenario in which Kyrgios wins as many if not more total points only to see Raonic win the bigger ones.

Pick: Raonic in 3

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49 Comments on Rome R2 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Kohlschreiber, Kyrgios vs. Raonic

  1. it’ll be interesting to see how Rafa’s loss at Madrid affects his on/iff confidence/concentration levels.
    Also, I hope his wrist is better.
    I’d say Rafa in 3 and Raonic in straights

      • agreed…Milos can easily be sent packing…

        I don’t like seeing Nick in Rafa’s part of the draw…he is so motivated when Rafa is on the other side of the net…so is everyone else these days…

  2. OOP – Wed
    Centre Court

    12 NOON
    Fed vs Zverev
    Djoker vs Robert

    Not before 7.30 pm
    Rafa vs Khols

    Grandstand
    12 noon
    Sousa vs Theim
    Murray vs Kukushkin

  3. I agree that it will be interesting to see how the loss to Murray affects Rafa in his first match in Rome.

    Kohls can put up a fight at times, but the H2H is so lopsided in favor of Rafa, that I am not worried about the outcome. Rafa will also be. lot more comfortable with the conditions in Rome.

    If Rafa is sluggish at all, then kohls could steal a set off him, but I am thinking Rafa gets it done in 2 sets.

    I have to believe that Kyrgios/ raonic is going to be a good match. Both guys are playing well right now. I do think that raonic is the steadier, mentally stronger player. I think Raonic will win in 3 sets.

  4. Given the tough draw, and statements from Rafa on his wrist plus poor play in Madrid, I doubt we will be seeing a Rafole quarter (which is likely for the best given the circumstances). Not to be confused with making fed fans happy (because he’d still likely beat bad knees bad back rules fed).

    • It’s discouraging and disappointing to learn Rafa is suffering from yet another injury…that can explain his lousy game against Murray or his drop in level during the whole Madrid tourney…

      I hope it’s nothing serious! But I tend to agree with hawks 4:27 PM: with Rafa’s statement on the wrist injury and the tough draw we may not see Rafa in the quarters…unless Bellucci suddenly beats Nole which would give Rafa new incentive and would fill him with energy… 🙂 yeah, fairy tales do not happen to Rafa or his fans…we are used to getting it the hard way or is it better to say ‘the hardest possible way’…

      • Nats – I’m in the throes of a major computer crisis. I have lost all (and when I say all I mean every single piece of info) and am having to reconstruct from absolute scratch with a new operating system I’m having nightmares trying to fathom out.
        I missed the news it has been revealed Rafa has a wrist injury: no wonder his game was so off and he looked grim faced during the semi final.

    • This is the first I am hearing about a wrist injury with rafa. He is playing despite it. So I have to believe that it’s not serious. I certainly hope not, given that RG is right around the corner.

  5. Now I really believe that how Rafa plays causes all his injuries.

    In the past I only believe that Rafa’s injury woes were due mainly because of his foot issue. However, Rafa has his back, right wrist and now left wrist issures, I doubt those are because of his foot issue.

    Rafa’s body is so beaten up and I can’t help but blame it on bad technique and the failure to notice and correct it when he was younger ( his coach is to be blamed surely!)

    I feel so sad and sorry about Rafa, he’s such a piece of fine material but has not been properly developed to its full potential. Instead, the fine material is subjected to unnecessary ‘abuse’ to make it excel, when there’s a better way of developing it to achieve the same or even better results.

    Rafa can hit the ball flatter, can play from close to the baseline taking the ball earlier, can serve quickly within time limit, can rush the net to finish the point there, IOWs, Rafa can play offensive tennis, as in 2004 to early 2005. Watch his matches back then. He won two HC masters at age 19, younger than Fed or Djokovic or Murray won their first HC Masters.

    All these changed when he started winning and dominating on clay; he was told to take his time to think before his serve; started to play his clay court game on the HCs and retreated to way behind the baseline instead of camping at the baseline to take the ball earlier. It’s no wonder he has to work so hard to win his matches, grinding most of the times when he has all the weapons and know how to play more offensive and attacking tennis ( Miami 2004 for example).

  6. I think some of the comments are a bit over the top regarding Rafa. He got to the semi final in Madrid having won Monte Carlo and Barcelona back to back. He’s not exactly doing badly.

      • I don’t think anyone is saying Rafa is doing badly. My concern is how Rafa lost that match.

        Obviously, Rafa is doing so much better than last year at this time.

      • But he IS showing how capable he is on this surface – he won 13 matches in a row, beat 5 Top 20 players, 3 of them in the Top 10 and won two titles back to back. Losing in the semi final to Murray does not detract too much from that. He’s doing considerably better at this stage then he did in 2014, and he went on to win RG that year.

        • fair points Arthur:) But, 2014 came after 2013 in which he proved to himself he could beat anyone. 2016 is coming after an year in which he kept losing to his own self! So, that is where the concern comes from. Not too bothered with the fact that he lost in a semi but with the manner of his loss. He had so many important moments on his racket and messed. He looked very tentative with Shot selection. I hope it was a one off and I agree overall things have been very positive.

          • vr,

            I agree with you. Arthur makes some good points. I am grateful that Rafa is doing so well now and I would not want to take away from that. It is true that Rafa is coming off his worst year in 2015. Winning titles helps to build up his confidence, but it takes time and more wins for him to really feel that belief and inner confidence.

            There is no shame in losing to Murray, but converting only 2 out of 13 break chances is just not good. Rafa was in this match and Murray did not play that well either. But Rafa had so many opportunities.

            I think we all want to hope that it was a one-off and that rafa will bounce back nicely in
            Rome.

            I think we do worry and fret when we see Rafa losing in this manner. But I do think the two titles Rafa has won will keep him going in the right direction.

          • agreed! If he can play a high quality match against Novak without showing the tentativeness she showed in Madrid, I will be satisfied. I don’t think it is possible to have a lop-sided result in the qtr if Rafa can just manage his nerves and play at a good level.

        • To me, Rafa losing to Mooray is a setback. Rafa looked sluggish during that match and he said, himself, that he lacked rhythm because when he has rhythm he is better than others.

    • wtf is wrong with Stan!? he can’t beat other players to meet the top guys. I am banking on him big time if Rafa can’t find his best in RG lol… Stan is so vulnerable to the field. Losing to Paire right now..

      • I am watching Stan’s match. He’s just not very good form now. A bad game at the end of the first set allowed Paire to win it.

        I picked Stan to win this one. Now at least he is up a break in the second set.

        • Stan was pretty bad on clay last year before Rome and then played good tennis here and that culminated in him demolishing Djokovic’s dreams of an RG title…haha..

          • Stan had a meltdown when the chair umpire called him out for an obscenity. So then Stan yelled the word out loud and the commentators had to apologize. But it got Stan fired up.

    • Stan got the win in 3 sets. It seemed that after the warning from the chair umpire, Stan got knocked out if his lethargy. He needs a decent result here to get some momentum going gor RG.

  7. Wawrinka needed to warm up I guess. Lol, that double fault from Paire has given Stan the 1-3 lead in the final set. Looks like he is going to get it! After the heated discussion with the umpire Benoit isn’t playing good anymore.

  8. I was gonna say after Paire won the first set: don’t hold your breath, Paire will find the way to self-destruct and lose in the end…and he certainly did…

  9. You think Rafa could manage to get day matches given his stated preference for playing under the sun.

    Ridiculously tough draw and biased scheduling is suspicious to say the least trying to prevent him getting back to form for Paris.

    • Hawkeyes: This is off topic but could you give me the address for the livescore site you recommended.

      You may have seen I am in dire straits having had to crash my MacBook because I was locked out after downloading FileVault and I have lost every single piece of data.. Whatever you do folks don’t fall for this protection programme. It is a nightmare.

  10. The tennis channel commentators said there was a rain delay. So that is going to push all the matches back.

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