Rome R2 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Kohlschreiber, Kyrgios vs. Raonic

Rafael Nadal will be part of a jam-packed schedule in Rome as second-round action continues on Wednesday, and he faces a potentially tough opener against Philipp Kohlschreiber. Milos Raonic and Nick Kyrgios are also in action.

Philipp Kohlschreiber vs. (5) Rafael Nadal

Nadal will be looking to bounce back from a Madrid semifinal loss to Andy Murray when he takes the court at the Internazionali BNL d’Italia on Wednesday. The fifth-Spaniard captured back-to-back titles on the clay courts of Monte-Carlo and Barcelona, but his momentum–and his quest for the No. 4 seed at Roland Garros–took a hit last week. Conditions in Rome, however, have always been more advantageous for Nadal than they are in Madrid. He is 47-4 lifetime at this tournament with seven titles.

Up first for Nadal is Kohlschreiber, who is a futile 1-12 in their ATP-level head-to-head series. The nine-time French Open champion is 4-0 at Kohlschreiber’s expense on clay with set scores of 6-2, 6-3, 6-1, 6-3, 6-2, 6-4, 6-3, and 6-3. They just faced each other in Barcelona, where Nadal had no trouble coasting through a semifinal contest. Kohlschreiber set up this rematch by rolling over qualifier Inigo Cervantes 6-4, 6-2 on Tuesday afternoon. The 26th-ranked German is 20-9 for the season and 12-4 in his last 16 matches, but he is a horrendous 0-21 in his last 21 non-retirement efforts against top-10 opponents.

Pick: Nadal in 2

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(10) Milos Raonic vs. Nick Kyrgios

Raonic and Kyrgios will be squaring off for the fifth time in their careers on Wednesday. The head-to-head series stands at 2-2, but Raonic won their only previous clay-court encounter 6-3, 7-6(1), 6-3 two years ago at Roland Garros. They split a pair of Wimbledon showdowns in 2014 and 2015 before Kyrgios extended his winning streak against the Canadian to two by prevailing 6-4, 7-6(4) two months ago in the Miami quarterfinals.
Kyrgios
Both big hitters are coming off Monday victories over Italian wild cards, although they took much different routes to find the winner’s circle. Kyrgios crushed little-known Salvatore Caruso 6-1, 6-2, while Raonic scraped past a more established competitor in Marco Cecchinato 6-4, 4-6, 6-4. Despite not being at his very best, the world No. 10 improved to 24-5 for a season in which he has not yet lost prior to the quarterfinals of any tournament. Kyrgios is 20-6 and has reached at least the quarterfinals in five of seven events in 2016. The 20-year-old Australian may be more reliable from the baseline than his opponent, but Raonic wields an even bigger serve and his current match toughness may be unequaled by anyone except Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray. This could be a scenario in which Kyrgios wins as many if not more total points only to see Raonic win the bigger ones.

Pick: Raonic in 3

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12 Comments on Rome R2 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Kohlschreiber, Kyrgios vs. Raonic

  1. Listened to Rafa’s Conversation with the Sky Sports commentators. Rafa sounded very happy and he said he was really happy with his forehand DTL , a shot he felt was missing in Madrid. The commies praised his backhand and rafa said he struck his backhand well tonight and when his forehand DTL and backhand cross court are working well, his whole game improves! Totally agreed.

    He was also asked about any adjustment to string tension and he said “only half a kilo. nothing major”.

    This was such a great performance after the disappointment in Madrid. He looked really comfortable in the second set , far more than he was in the entire week in Madrid. This Rafa would have beaten Murray for sure.

    This is the difference in this Rafa vs the 2015 Rafa…this Rafa has the ability to put aside bad losses and bounce back. He has prepared well for a challenge tomorrow.

  2. That was altogether more enjoyable to watch. A few careless mistakes but he made up for that with some stunning vintage Rafa shots. It was cold in Rome tonight but Rafa was dripping with sweat so their were some nerves but he kept them under control. Not looking forward to the next match one little bit 🙁

    • I understand Ed… but, it is one tournament away from RG now so no point in hiding from matches like these. Rafa should be ready as he has played enough matches on clay. He has won his last 14/15 matches which is very good.

      Kyrgios has an insane serving day at wimbledon and Rafa had no answer to his serve that day for FOUR sets. That was so weird as Rafa never got a read on his serve, esp the flat one up the middle on the deuce court and then the one to the forehand on the ad court.

      This is clay and serve won’t be a big factor. Rafa’s returning well and he should be fine. Nick’s return game is not so good and if Rafa can serve decently, he will be okay on his serve.

      I pick Rafa in 2 sets

      • I also think Rafa should play difficult opponents to get to the point where no draw will be an issue like it was before his lapse.

  3. It was 15 winners and only 8 UE for the second set. Too good against a player who was hitting the ball very well.

    Overall he won 70% second serve points.

    Not sure what anyone else thinks but I am totally in favor of Rafa’s new position on the ad court to serve. It helps him not only on his first but also his second serve.

    • First, I think that Rafa should play tough opponents now. He has two titles and a semifinal result in Madrid. So he has confidence and belief. If ever there was a time for Rafa to meet Krygios, it’s now on clay. He has to be tested before RG. We don’t know how the draw will play out for RG. So let Rafa be ready for all comers!

      I am happy with anything that works and helps Rafa. So if moving over to serve is giving him an advantage, then of course I am all for it.

      Rafa showed today that the loss to Murray did not set him back. He seems a lot more comfortable on the courts in Rome.

      I think Rafa will have a good shot at the win tomorrow if he plays the way he did today. Rafa knows what to expect from Krygios. I think he will be ready.

      • Agreed. Beating Kyrgios will erase fears of meeting a big hitter in the earlier rnds of RG. Rafa will win tomorrow.

  4. A short video from Rafa’s post-match press conference:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VCv1L-hAIV0

    Rafa: “I’m very satisfied. I think I played at a very high level in all aspects. I think the forehand down the line, that is very important shot for me. In Madrid I missed it but it worked great tonight. And I feel like I practiced well these two days, and I started very good the tournament.”

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