Rome SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Djokovic

One of the best rivalries in the current era of tennis will add another chapter following a one-year hiatus when Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic meet again in the semifinals of the the Internazionali BNL d’Italia on Saturday.

Djokovic is one of just two active players–along with Dustin Brown–who owns a winning record of any kind against Nadal. After once trailing the Spaniard 14-4, the Serb now leads the head-to-head series 26-24 after winning 22 of their last 32 encounters dating back to the summer of 2009. He is also 19-8 dating back to the start of 2011 and had won seven in a row before falling to Nadal 6-2, 6-4 on the red clay of Madrid last spring.

The sudden drought in their rivalry can be easily explained, as Djokovic missed the second half of last season due to various physical problems and has been slow to return in 2018. He showed signs of his former self by winning three matches at the Australian Open, but the see-saw comeback took a turn for the worse with a straight-set loss to Hyeon Chung (Aussie Open fourth round) and much worse setbacks against Taro Daniel (Indian Wells) and Benoit Paire (Miami).

Djokovic’s clay-court swing began with a modest 3-3 record through three tournaments, but it all may be turning around for him just in time for the French Open. The world No. 18 has won four matches at a single event for the first time this year, beating Alexandr Dolgopolov, Nikoloz Basilashvili, Albert Ramos-Vinolas, and Kei Nishikori en route to the semis.

“The quality of tennis was really high,” Djokovic said after overcoming Nishikori 2-6, 6-1, 6-3. “Kei was playing fantastic, especially in the first set…and it took me little bit of time to adjust to his pace…. I’m really happy that I mentally stayed strong. In the ending of the third set I really fought and showed some resilience. This victory means a lot to me on different levels, mostly mental.”

It will take an incredible physical effort to recover from a two-hour, 20-minute battle and go up against the King of Clay on his favorite surface one day later. Is Nadal beatable on clay? Well, yes; it just happened when Dominic Thiem took him down in the Madrid quarterfinals last week. Fabio Fognini also took a set off the top seed on Friday, but conditions suit Nadal more favorably in Rome than they do in Madrid and he really has not come close to losing this week–not even to Fognini. The 31-year-old preceded his win over the Italian by crushing Damir Dzumhur 6-1, 6-0 and Denis Shapovalov 6-4, 6-1.

As if Nadal even needed a wakeup call to prepare himself for a showdown against one his chief rivals, he got it from Fognini. The 16-time Grand Slam champion will undoubtedly be ready. Will Djokovic? Two recent wins over Nishikori are promising for the former world No. 1, but he has not defeated anyone in the top 20 since Eastbourne last summer and it has been exactly one year since his last top-10 victory (over Thiem in the 2017 Rome semis).

Pick: Nadal in 2

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46 Comments on Rome SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Djokovic

  1. Don’t know what happens to Rafa’s serve, it’s being bad after that Shapo match; maybe he’s just nervous?

  2. Thankfully Rafa wins the TB and the first set!

    Rafa’s serve is poor compared to Djoko’s, don’t understand why Rafa couldn’t find his first serve so often whilst Djoko is like serving from a tree! Had Rafa served better he could have close this match earlier.

    Hope Rafa raise his level now and please serve better!

  3. Rafa was only getting in 50 % of first serves . Novak was getting in about 60 something percent. They both are winning about the same percentage of first and second serves.

    All Novak has to do is see Rafa on the other side of the net. Novak had a meltdown on the sidelines after he lost the first set.

  4. Yeah, had Rafa served better, the first set won’t be so close. I think Rafa is a bit nervous vs Djoko, not unlike when vs Foggy. He knows they’re formidable opponents.

  5. Rafa brings out the best in all his opponents. This looks like the old Djokovic that we haven’t seen until today.

  6. YESSSSS!!!Wooooohoooooo!!….Rafa won!!….

    Uhuk!Uhuk!Uhuk!….So sorry for Stanley who’s wishes to see Rafa lost today was not granted….Ooppssie!

  7. But full full credit to Nole who seems very close to his former self…Good luck for the rest of the season Nole!!

    To RC….Sorry,Nole lost…But,he’s on his way to his best….

    • Thanks, MA. I don’t like seeing Novak get so angry that it affects him negatively. If he could just take those emotions and frustrations out on the court with his racquet like he was able to do for quite awhile in stretches in his career. I don’t like it when he hangs on to the anger and gets sarcastic with himself, nor do I like it when he gives up and just goes flat.

      He managed the monster within in the end today. I hope he takes positives because there were a lot of positive and he’s got a lot of tennis to play at a very high level, if he can keep going.

      Congrats to you and Rafans. He’s the best. But I know you worry about him too 😉 And that’s because anything can happen. It’s not likely that Rafa loses this time of year but he did falter in Madrid.

      • Thanks for the congrats rc….Worried?Yeah!…Novak is the only player that i worried the most…As we can see today,he resembled very much of his former self…he didn’t play like this in such a long long time….

        About his anger…I liked to see that too from Novak…Coz that shows his desire to win is there again for him..compared to last year when he acted like a robot..no emotions whatsoever when he’s on court…

        Like Nats said up there..i hope he will be a challenge at Wimby…He’s good on grass too…

  8. As I said, Rafa would win in straight sets with one set close and the other not so much. Had Rafa served better, he would be able to win more comfortably.

    Djoko is playing well, he always play well against Rafa!

    • Yay!! Rafa wins!!

      Rafa stayed tough and did it in straight sets.

      They said Novak will be ranked outside the top twenty now. He lost points because he was in the final last year.

      This is his best result so far. I don’t think he’s back yet, especially at slams. But it’s a start in the right direction. He did play well. But Rafa started serving better and took control in the second set.

      Rafa will feel very good about this win.

      • Vamos Rafa!! But you’re right – the Djoker will be wild for awhile yet. Still, I hope he doesn’t land in Rafa’s half of the RG draw! I expect he hopes that too. If he keeps playing with a semblance of his former self absolutely NO ONE is gonna want to play him early. Or late, for that matter.

        “It’s not about revenge.” But vengeance is sweet!

        • Thank you, Eugene. But I rarely feel precious. But I’ll accept the idea right now. Nice to read you here again.

          Halep is not having any luck holding serve atm. This is as enjoyable as having my wisdom teeth extracted over again.

          Enjoy your day Eugene. I’m done with tennis for today. I’ll check in tomorrow and see if Svitolina can defend her title here.

          If Maria is going to dominate again – WTA needs Serena back!!

  9. As much as I appreciate Novak, I have personally never liked him as much as I do Fedal… I would love to see Novak get back to his prime level again eventually, though, because the sport really is better with him playing a high level. There is no question that ATP is just not even remotely as interesting without all of the Big 4 + Stan intact. I want to say that this week was a step in the right direction for Novak, but I felt that sentiment even more at LAST year’s Rome event where he played even better in reaching the Final. Therefore I’m skeptical that this semifinal run means anything more than Rome is just one of Novak’s most comfortable/favored tournaments…

    I’m sure that both the Rafans and Fedfans on here would agree with me when I say that I would personally love for Rafa get another slam victory over Novak at RG this season, and for Fed to get another one over Novak at Wimbledon. I feel like it would be very satisfying for each of them about the recent stretch of years where Novak had their number. I guess it would be more ideal for Fed when it comes to slams as he lost those three major Finals to Novak, 2 of them heartbreakers. And if Fed managed to get a slam victory over Novak at 36-37 years old, that would make it even more satisfying for him.

    As far as Rafa is concerned, I really just want him make up for the massacre he took from Novak at RG 2015. I believe Rafa has unfinished business as far as that is concerned. We would have gotten it last year had Novak not lost meekly to Thiem in the QF.

    • No Kevin I dont want Novak anywhere close to Rafa…he can be in other part of draw..But I know he will be put in Rafas draw and may be made to face Rafa as early as 3rd or 4th round

    • I’d love a slam final between Novak and Rafa. Hope the RG draw gods see it that way too. I honestly don’t think Rafa puts much stock in h2h records. He’s always said that the lopsided h2h does NOT make him a better player than Roger. Also I’ve always preferred the Fedal matchup too.

    • Can’t say that I agree with you about wanting Nadal to beat Novak at RG: I’ve always liked Djokovic more than Nadal, and I think at his best he’s better than Rafa. But not now, not yet. Nadal played a mostly great match, with one big exception: his serve. Not sure what has gone wrong with it, but it’s really gone off the boil and the wind made it worse yesterday. But Nadal played a brilliant tiebreaker and fully deserved the win.

      Props to Novak for playing a tough match, but I still felt that he really lacked the fire of his glory days. Maybe he was a bit tired with the short recovery time, but he never really looked to me like he thought he could win.

      • Rafa had 50% first serves which was very poor but he won around 61% of them..Djokovic had 71% first serves but won only 64% of it..Rafa however won 69% second serve points n thats huge and made up for it..

      • Joe Smith says AT 3:54 AM: “I’ve always liked Djokovic more than Nadal”
        ===

        Fed worshipers have always disliked Rafa (since the latter started to beat the Fed worshipers’ beloved one). LOL

        Fed devotees have always liked

      • I’ve to repeat this again:

        Rafa’s best on clay >> Djoko’s best on clay
        Rafa’s best on HCs <. Djoko’s best on HCs
        Rafa’s best on grass (ie 2008/2010) = Djoko’s best on grass (2014/2015)

      • It’s not only the wind that troubled Rafa’s serve; it’s also his nerve. The same thing happened in the Foggy match.

        However, Rafa still was able to break and lead Djoko 5-2 in first set; just like he was leading Foggy 4-2 in set one the other day; his poor first serve had done the damage on Rafa’s game in set one both times; it’s a testament as to how good Rafa’s game was that even without a good serve, he still could win the match(es). With a better serve, he could win both matches comfortably in straight sets.

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