Rome SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Djokovic

One of the best rivalries in the current era of tennis will add another chapter following a one-year hiatus when Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic meet again in the semifinals of the the Internazionali BNL d’Italia on Saturday.

Djokovic is one of just two active players–along with Dustin Brown–who owns a winning record of any kind against Nadal. After once trailing the Spaniard 14-4, the Serb now leads the head-to-head series 26-24 after winning 22 of their last 32 encounters dating back to the summer of 2009. He is also 19-8 dating back to the start of 2011 and had won seven in a row before falling to Nadal 6-2, 6-4 on the red clay of Madrid last spring.

The sudden drought in their rivalry can be easily explained, as Djokovic missed the second half of last season due to various physical problems and has been slow to return in 2018. He showed signs of his former self by winning three matches at the Australian Open, but the see-saw comeback took a turn for the worse with a straight-set loss to Hyeon Chung (Aussie Open fourth round) and much worse setbacks against Taro Daniel (Indian Wells) and Benoit Paire (Miami).

Djokovic’s clay-court swing began with a modest 3-3 record through three tournaments, but it all may be turning around for him just in time for the French Open. The world No. 18 has won four matches at a single event for the first time this year, beating Alexandr Dolgopolov, Nikoloz Basilashvili, Albert Ramos-Vinolas, and Kei Nishikori en route to the semis.

“The quality of tennis was really high,” Djokovic said after overcoming Nishikori 2-6, 6-1, 6-3. “Kei was playing fantastic, especially in the first set…and it took me little bit of time to adjust to his pace…. I’m really happy that I mentally stayed strong. In the ending of the third set I really fought and showed some resilience. This victory means a lot to me on different levels, mostly mental.”

It will take an incredible physical effort to recover from a two-hour, 20-minute battle and go up against the King of Clay on his favorite surface one day later. Is Nadal beatable on clay? Well, yes; it just happened when Dominic Thiem took him down in the Madrid quarterfinals last week. Fabio Fognini also took a set off the top seed on Friday, but conditions suit Nadal more favorably in Rome than they do in Madrid and he really has not come close to losing this week–not even to Fognini. The 31-year-old preceded his win over the Italian by crushing Damir Dzumhur 6-1, 6-0 and Denis Shapovalov 6-4, 6-1.

As if Nadal even needed a wakeup call to prepare himself for a showdown against one his chief rivals, he got it from Fognini. The 16-time Grand Slam champion will undoubtedly be ready. Will Djokovic? Two recent wins over Nishikori are promising for the former world No. 1, but he has not defeated anyone in the top 20 since Eastbourne last summer and it has been exactly one year since his last top-10 victory (over Thiem in the 2017 Rome semis).

Pick: Nadal in 2

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27 Comments on Rome SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Djokovic

  1. Djokovic has nothing to lose and will relish the underdog tag. Nadal will get the upperhand, eventually, but Djokovic will look like a winner at some stage.

    Nadal in 3

  2. Nadal is beatable; his form is not what it was earlier in the clay court season. His serve especially has tailed off. Djokovic has the game in theory to beat him, obviously, but there is no reason to think it will happen until after it does.

    Novak’s best chance is probably that Rafa will have too much respect for him based on the past, and won’t be as confident as he should be. I don’t think it will be enough. Nadal in 2.

  3. Djokovic in tight 3. Rafa’s form is great. Would pick rafa in b05. In BO3 and in rome, I would give edge to Djokovic.

  4. Djokovic was hitting eagle eye line shots against Nishi. Yes, Djokovic is beatable, but after losing at home in Madrid, I don’t know if I can confidently say Nadal in 2. Maybe I’ll take Djoko to win the 1st set.

  5. Kei feeding Djoko those fast pace balls had played into Djoko’s hands; Djoko loved the pace and rhythm of the rallies and could change directions at will. Kei should vary the pace, or rushed in to take the ball early, doing something different.

    I hope Rafa serves well in the first place, and goes into aggression mode from the get go and not goes into hard hitting from the baseline. He’s not the king of clay for nothing, he should know how to solve problems out there,just like how he turned things around against Foggy.

  6. Rafa for the win. Djoko is slowly getting on track again,but it’s just too soon for him. If he puts a good effort maybe he can challenge Rafa and capture a set or making it competitive,even if it’s a two setter. Plus,he will be physically drained and had less time to recover than Rafa,and that also will play a huge role,the Nadalovic contests are always extremely physical.

  7. I’m happy Nole made it this far and hope he can play well. Certainly Rafa will win in 2 – just hope it won’t be a blow-out.

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