Rome SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Djokovic

One of the best rivalries in the current era of tennis will add another chapter following a one-year hiatus when Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic meet again in the semifinals of the the Internazionali BNL d’Italia on Saturday.

Djokovic is one of just two active players–along with Dustin Brown–who owns a winning record of any kind against Nadal. After once trailing the Spaniard 14-4, the Serb now leads the head-to-head series 26-24 after winning 22 of their last 32 encounters dating back to the summer of 2009. He is also 19-8 dating back to the start of 2011 and had won seven in a row before falling to Nadal 6-2, 6-4 on the red clay of Madrid last spring.

The sudden drought in their rivalry can be easily explained, as Djokovic missed the second half of last season due to various physical problems and has been slow to return in 2018. He showed signs of his former self by winning three matches at the Australian Open, but the see-saw comeback took a turn for the worse with a straight-set loss to Hyeon Chung (Aussie Open fourth round) and much worse setbacks against Taro Daniel (Indian Wells) and Benoit Paire (Miami).

Djokovic’s clay-court swing began with a modest 3-3 record through three tournaments, but it all may be turning around for him just in time for the French Open. The world No. 18 has won four matches at a single event for the first time this year, beating Alexandr Dolgopolov, Nikoloz Basilashvili, Albert Ramos-Vinolas, and Kei Nishikori en route to the semis.

“The quality of tennis was really high,” Djokovic said after overcoming Nishikori 2-6, 6-1, 6-3. “Kei was playing fantastic, especially in the first set…and it took me little bit of time to adjust to his pace…. I’m really happy that I mentally stayed strong. In the ending of the third set I really fought and showed some resilience. This victory means a lot to me on different levels, mostly mental.”

It will take an incredible physical effort to recover from a two-hour, 20-minute battle and go up against the King of Clay on his favorite surface one day later. Is Nadal beatable on clay? Well, yes; it just happened when Dominic Thiem took him down in the Madrid quarterfinals last week. Fabio Fognini also took a set off the top seed on Friday, but conditions suit Nadal more favorably in Rome than they do in Madrid and he really has not come close to losing this week–not even to Fognini. The 31-year-old preceded his win over the Italian by crushing Damir Dzumhur 6-1, 6-0 and Denis Shapovalov 6-4, 6-1.

As if Nadal even needed a wakeup call to prepare himself for a showdown against one his chief rivals, he got it from Fognini. The 16-time Grand Slam champion will undoubtedly be ready. Will Djokovic? Two recent wins over Nishikori are promising for the former world No. 1, but he has not defeated anyone in the top 20 since Eastbourne last summer and it has been exactly one year since his last top-10 victory (over Thiem in the 2017 Rome semis).

Pick: Nadal in 2

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16 Comments on Rome SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Djokovic

  1. Rafa being 5 2 up and made to win 7 6 shows he still has the scars of losses inflicted on him in his head and it will never completely go away. He may be able to contain it and manage it but it will never go away.

    Delpotro and Novak are the 2 dangers for Rafa in RG and to lesser extent Thiem and Zverev..Zverev mostly will be no 2 and will go in other half..Delpo looks injured and may not play..I fully expect given how RG always tries to makes Rafas draws tough put Novak in round 3 and Thiem in QF..I hope Novak is in other half and Thiem not face Rafa before SF

    • Did you even watch the match ? Boh players had trouble holding against the wind. Rafa lost his serve against the wind just like Djokovic.

      Rafa even had trouble holding his first serve from that end .

      • Rafa won 😭,I am so happy for him 😉.
        If Novak was in form he would have won, Novak needs to continue to play, he is improving.

          • Just like most of Feds opponents did not have enough time to recover over the years because of bad scheduling, centre court slots, roof closed etc advantages doled out to Federer.

          • Oppss!…Roger who won’t win FO Stanley!Coz he chose not to play there…And Rafa still has the chance to win it..or do u suddenly forget about that?Heh heh…

      • Rafa clearly played tentative serving at 5 3…he was shaky with the FH and made uncharacteristic errors…he said so in as many words that he made stupid mistakes at 5 3 serving..

  2. the Serb complained afterwards about poor scheduling which affected his preparation, playing a late-afternoon quarter-final on Friday before returning to court on Saturday mid-afternoon.

    “I don’t want to seem like I’m complaining about losing the match because of the schedule. But having to end at night and coming back to play early in the day affects a lot,” he said.

    “Nobody has ever, ever reached me in my entire career to ask me about what I think would be the best scheduling. I don’t think that is fair, we will address it in the next players’ council.”

    I don’t think there was that much of a difference, which is great news for me. Winning the tie-break was for him a great wind in his back,” said Djokovic.

    “Rafa was just better in the important moments, played the better shots. He deserved to win

    “I haven’t had many breaks in the last period, so I’m pleased by how I’ve played in the last days. I hope Roland Garros can be the continuation.”

    • I was kind of puzzled by their scheduling Rafa-Fabio so early in the day – that’s a prime time match in Italy for sure, but then I figured it was Fognini they were favoring, figuring that if he did win he’d need PLENTY of rest time for the final.

  3. Fabio didn’t lose to a champion, but to the champion, because I think Rafa is still above (Roger) Federer.

    Fulvio Fognini (Foginins dad)

  4. Rafa did not even play that well today..50% first serves which is seriously bad,barely hit FH DTL- guess just 2 or 3 (the few times he hit, he won the point esp one monster one in the TB )..his CC BH did a lot of damage today too..not sure if it was deliberate to change patterns against Novak..

  5. HUGE test for Rafa today,with Novak playing at a high level!
    In the end,I think that Djoko deserved a set for what he showed today. He really gets fired up when he faces Rafa across the net and gives it all out there,plus I think that he’s the best player anticipating Rafa’s shots,he makes Rafa take risks if he wants to get advantage in the baseline exchanges. IMO,Djoko’s still on Rafa’s mind,surely that 7 consecutive victories for Djoko have taken it’s tool psychologically. That’s why Rafa entered the match on his back foot,being defensive and letting Djoko dictate way to much from the baseline.When he took the first set he got relaxed and played way more freely in the second.
    To see Novak with the will and desire again is great news. Now I’m sure he’ll be back to be a top contender for pretty much everything once again,maybe after Wimbledon he’ll reach his normal level and will be a favourite for the USO.
    Regarding Rafa,it’s great to see him getting tested once again before the BIG event and it’s also an important victory in the mental side,sure it helps him exorcising the demons Novak brought to his mind.

    Vamos Rafa! 💪👑🎾

    • Nah, Djoko may be back but I’m not sure he’ll be back to his previous high level. He still has to fight tooth and nail with Kei, who’s also on the comeback trail.

      I think he can be in the top five, but it’s looking unlikely that he’ll become no.1 again when players like Sasha is getting better and better, and Fedal are playing at a high level too. I’m talking about next year and after, this year he won’t have much time to get back on track, ie at least in the top ten I feel.

      I think Fedal, if they keep up their form and high level, will rule this year and next, but come 2020, things may change and the young gen may be ready to take over by then – when Fed will be 38/39 and Rafa 33/34; Djoko by then will be 32/33.

      • Surely Djoko’s not coming back to 2011/2015 level,but to be a top contender he doesn’t really need that superior form.
        Zverev’s playing very well at the moment,but he’s yet to translate his game to BO5 matches. To come back to N.1 seems pretty tough for Djoko I agree,Zverev is in fact seeming most likely to end the season closer to that position than him. We shall wait and see.

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