Rome final preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Murray

Novak Djokovic will be looking for back-to-back Masters 1000 titles when he goes up against Andy Murray in a second straight final on Sunday in Rome. Djokovic needed a third-set tiebreaker to get past Kei Nishikori in the semis.

Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray will be squaring off for the 33rd time in their careers and for the second time in as many weeks when they battle for the Internazionali BNL d’Italia title on Sunday.

Djokovic is leading the head-to-head series 23-9, including an even more dominant 12-1 in their last 13 encounters. The top-ranked Serb won eight in a row at Murray’s expense, lost to the Scot in last summer’s Montreal final, and has now picked up four more victories in succession. The familiar foes most recently faced each other in the Madrid title match last Sunday, when Djokovic triumphed 6-2, 3-6, 6-3.

If nothing else, Murray does own the advantage of having enjoyed an earlier and much simpler semifinal contest. Going up against Lucas Pouille in the afternoon, the second seed crushed the lucky loser 6-2, 6-1 in 59 minutes. He preceded that victory by taking out Mikhail Kukushkin, Jeremy Chardy, and David Goffin all in straight sets. Murray is a decent 21-5 for the season, but he is still in search of his first title.
Murray
Djokovic has wobbled from just about start to finish this week, but he has somehow found a way to maintain momentum after lifting the Madrid Trophy. Rome’s No. 1 seed held off qualifier Stephane Robert 7-5, 7-5, got bageled by Thomaz Bellucci before prevailing 0-6, 6-2, 6-3, battled past Rafael Nadal 7-5, 7-6(4), and recovered from another set deficit to outlast Kei Nishikori 2-6, 6-4, 7-6(5) on Saturday. Djokovic is 37-2 for his 2016 campaign with five titles (three of the Masters 1000 variety in addition to the Australian Open).

The four-time Rome champion needed needed three hours and one minute to survive against Nishikori, but bouncing back from grueling efforts has never been a problem for him–at least not since his reign at the top of the game began. Conditions in Rome should suit Djokovic better in a match with Murray than those in Madrid, as the underdog will struggle to hit through him on a slower court. In all likelihood, the impenetrable fortress that is Djokovic’s defense will once again be too tough for Murray.

Pick: Djokovic in 2

[polldaddy poll=9417644]

88 Comments on Rome final preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Murray

  1. Nice win from Murray.Djokovic is obviously burned out from winning so much but he’ll be okay after he sleeps for a week.Murray is good at the net,wish he would keep playing that way.

    • he is not going to sleep for a week! That’s the problem! it will be a couple of days’ rest and then the tension and pressure regarding RG will kick in and he will start practicing and thinking again.

  2. Novaks’ top difficulties in Paris:

    1. Rafael Nadal
    2.Mental, Emotional Tiredness
    3. Andy Murray
    4. Dangerous players like Wawrinka.

        • I don’t see Stan as a threat unless he finds his game. He hasn’t looked good at all in the tournaments leading up to RG.

          It’s always good to have some momentum going into a slam, even though warmup tournaments are not always a predictor of who will win a slam.

          Murray just put himself into the conversation and as the #2 seed, he won’t face Novak until the final. I don’t know that Novak will go into RG as such a huge favorite now. With his rivals stepping up, things are going to be interesting. Novak needs some rest and then we will see how he looks at RG.

          • NNY, Stan will be a big threat if he meets Novak because the only way he can Novak is to reach the semi and that is only achievable if he playing well.

            Stan is playing another clay court tournament so may be he can find some form.

          • vr,

            You have a point. However, I am not convinced that Stan will get to the semis. He’s going to need to play a lot better. I assume that defending 2000 points will be motivation!

            It will be interesting to see if the top four seeds hold. There are some dark horses lurking in the draw.

          • i don’t see stan doing what he did last year. that was a wild one off.
            doing it as the defending champion is a whole different ball game.

          • agree with both of you. I was not talking about Stan’s chances of winning RG, I was talking about threats to Nvovak. Stan is a real threat should he meet Novak because the only way he can meet Novak is in the semi or the final which would obviously mean Stan is playing very well. Of course he is not a top contender to win RG.

            @NNY, Annacone picked Rafa?! That’s good to hear!

      • of course he is. You think Murray is a bigger threat???! Rafa has a very good chance of out-hitting everyone on Chatrier. He needs a good first week to build more belief.

    • Ed,

      So I was right? I wasn’t quite sure at first. Yes, he looks good!

      I guess you and I are the only ones ho would even recognize him! 🙂

  3. After really smart scheduling last year, looks like Nole made things too complicated for himself this year.
    Playing Rome may have done more harm than good. He could have easily skipped Madrid or Rome.

    Anyways, congrats to Andy for getting it done on his b’day! Arguably the 2nd favorite after Nole to win RG now.

    I just hope Nole can get good 4 to 5 days of rest. That would be more than enough to get himself motoring again.

    • Novak could have skipped Madrid since he didn’t even play there last year.

      For the first time I do believe that Novak is somewhat gassed. I know that he whacked his ankle and hurt it, but he doesn’t usually lose his cool the way he did in his match with nishi and with Murray. I also think that his quarterfinal match with Rafa took a lot out of him. That was more like playing the Rafa of old. The thing is, it cuts both ways when Novak and Rafa have to play each other earlier in a tournament.

      But I still do not want Rafa to play Novak in the quarterfinals at RG!

      I am just glad to see real competition in the men’s game again.

      • Amen to your last line, NNY! I do feel that Rafa, KNish and Moo Ray tag teamed Nole. And yes, RG just got a LOT more interesting.

        Who knows re Stan? He tends to show up big at the slams even when he hasn’t been winning.

  4. hahaha another gem from juan jose:

    to say that djokovic is on edge would be an understatement. he’s tip-toeing on the line between sanity and disaster.
    why don’t you write like this in your rolling stone pieces jj??

  5. Rome has been a nadal djokovic bastion. I think first time since 2004 we have a different winner in rome?. Congrats to andy. Its kind of neat that the three top contenders for the french have each won one masters prior to the grandslam. French open definitely got much more interesting. Have to bet on rafa if he does not have to face djoko

  6. As I recently said Novak’s desire to win it all can get right back at him. Most of my friends Nole’s fans shared my view and were worried about him overplaying and getting mentally over cooked…his nervous reactions and at times inexplicable fights with umpire over stupid things speak for itself…he is under tremendous pressure…

    The good thing is he has capable team around him to help him get back to his normal self…he will be fine for RG I am sure…

  7. Nats: You don’t sound entirely convinced.,,,,,,,,,,,lol

    I was watching his box, and his parents** closely yesterday and from their expressions and body language I would say they are very aware of the problem they have on their hands. IMO Djokovic has been on the brink of burnout for months and yesterday he finally unravelled.

    ** someone on another site reckoned the presence of his parents in Rome was one of the reasons he was so unsettled.

  8. I would prefer that Nadal is in Djokovic’s Quarter. If Nadal is playing well, no one can stop him, not even Djokovic. If he is not playing well, better to lose in the Quarters and give opportunities to others to stop Djokovic whose dominance has become boring.

  9. Maybe Dijana and Jelena can’t get along and Jelena was sulking at home? Explains Djokovic’s bad mood and racket hurling etc

    • Dijana, Novak’s mother is a very nice lady. It’s Novak’s father who is problematic, and who does not get along with people around Novak. It has net been easy for Dijana to live with him. i only hope that Novak has not inherited father’s trmper. I know this from their closest friends, but don’t think the presence of his parents distracted Novak. He just played too much and for too long and did not manage his schedule wisely.

      • Natashao (AT 9:11 AM),
        —He just played too much and for too long and did not manage his schedule wisely.—
        ===
        He scheduled to skip Madrid “wisely” in 2014&2015. He was too afraid to revisit Madrid after he was rude towards the Madrid crowd in 2013. LOL

        Redeucer, May 12, 2013: ¤¤ Djokovic to Madrid: ‘You Will Now Lick My D**k’!
        Novak Djokovic recently shouted a vulgarity at the crowd during his second round match against Grigor Dimitrov at the Madrid Open.
        With a pro-Dimitrov crowd consistently chanting Dimitrov’s name throughout the match, the sensitive Serbian finally succombed to the pressure.
        World No. 28 Dimitrov eventually overpowered Djokovic, 7-6 (8-6) 6-7 (8-10) 6-3. And at a change over in the match after Djokovic won the second set tiebreaker, he exclaimed in his native Serbian:
        “Sad ce te kurac da mi lizete,” which literally translates to, “You will now lick my dick.”¤¤

      • Since when has superman played too much? He reached the final of virtually everything he entered last year and won most of them.

  10. Ricky which part of my post do you not agree with? That in form Nadal can beat Djokovic or that Djokovic’s dominance is boring or that Nadal being in Djokovic’s Quarter maximizes chances of stopping Djokovic or something else?

    • lol this is an interesting take…yeah…..Rafa can definitely beat Novak in Qtrs as long as the spaniard is playing his best tennis. Even he if loses, he would have softened Novak- leaving him vulnerable against the next two opponents.

      Just don’t wanna think about Rafa losing in the Qtrs. I have high really high hopes. And, this is not the fan boy in me speaking…

    • i also disagree about Nadal’s best beating Djokovic’s best. It’s pretty obvious Djokovic on a good day will handle anyone. Someone will have to play amazing AND get an off day from Djokovic in order to win.

      • Mais non. Au contraire mon ami.

        Not obvious at all.

        It’s pretty obvious Rafa on a good day will handle anyone. Someone will have to play amazing AND get an off day from Rafa in order to win.

        This has happened exactly twice.

        Nole has played amazing at Chartrier several times and still lost.

        #HerbertWillWin

      • Djokovic has been having way too many ‘OFF’ days in recent weeks. The added pressure to win his first RG, complete the calendar Slam and collect a raft of records to boot will take its toll. He will need all the stars to align if he is to pull off the prize he wants so desperately.

        Many a slip twixt cup and lip.

        • i shall never forget watching Rafa sobbing in his chair after picking up a groin injury when he was poised to become only the 2nd man in the open era to hold all four slams simultaneously. He was totally hobbled and U.Toni was urging him to retire but he refused to do so and managed to complete the match but lost to Ferrer in three sets.

          The AO has been the scene of so many epic battles which have ended in painful losses for Rafa (in both senses of the word) precipitated by his body letting him down.

  11. My view might be biased as a Djokovic fan, but I see the outcome as positive for Novak. Twice he has gone into the French nearly unbeatable and twice he was dispatched in the tournament itself (2011 and 2015). After the losses, however, he bounced back to dominate the rest of the respective seasons.

    If Novak had lost to Rafa, however, the story would be very different. At Chartrier, Nadal still has the perfect template to win any match against most people when his forehand is working at even 80%. The fact that Novak started off scratchily and was able to muster enough to win should give him belief that he can do the same in any match at RG. Secondly, losing in the final is bound to motivate him more, and with Boris in the corner for the next week, I’m sure they will figure something out.

    As for Andy, he has a very realistic chance of winning the French, but that is if he doesn’t have to play Rafa on the way IMO. Its a 50-50 with Novak, their matches on clay have been too close for comfort when Novak won, and he was dominant yesterday. I still expect Novak to finally overcome this hurdle, and go on to have another career defining year.

    • good post…. I would still give an edge to Novak in a slam until Andy proves otherwise. Agree with the other points..

    • Well-said, Mikkers. This Nole fan agrees. Especially — it was important to beat Rafa in Rome QF’s. On the other hand, when I imagine how irritated that would have made him, I wonder if that would have motivated him even more?! Losing to Andy – should suffice for motivation, tho. Fingers crossed for him to get the right rest and preparation this week.

      • meant to say: when I imagine how irritated losing to Rafa in the Rome QF would have made him…

        And I shudder to think how the loss in Rome is motivating Rafa!

        • You can bet that if they met in the French open this year it would be a fantastic match. I remember the 2013 match well, which in my opinion is the best match ever between the two for sheer drama and the peaks in shotmaking.

        • Nole beat Rafa on Masters clay in 2011, 2013 and 2014 and Rafa won RG.

          I think Rafa is not so much motivated by losing in Rome, but by how well he played to the point that the match was actually on his racquet until he got tight at key moments for the first time in almost two years.

          • I think that sometimes the point gets lost regarding Novak beating Rafa in the clay tournaments leading up to RG, but not RG itself. Novak beat a Rafa who was slumping and nowhere near his best last year and even he knows that.

            When Rafa was himself and playing the tennis that win him 9 titles, he beat Novak every time they met af RG.

  12. Djoko has been freewheeling for the last 3 years or so, now that he is under pressure to keep winning he’ll be more vulnerable.

    Rafa at his best is better than Djoker at his best.

    • That depends primarily on surface. As for freewheeling, who was Nadal challenged by in 2010, again? And do you really believe Djokovic was anywhere close to his best in 2013?

      • Yes Nole was near his best (not at) in 2013 when he lost to Rafa on hard court slam and clay slam.

        Rafa was near his best (not at) in 2011 when he lost to Nole on hard court slam and grass slam.

        Neither player has beaten the other in a slam when the loser was AT their best to date. The closest to this was 2013 FO SF.

        Hope this helps.

        • Actually, Rafa was not near his best in 2011, he said he was sick of the tour that it felt like he’d been playing for 100 years. He was suffering from burnout.

      • Djoker has been at his best since 2011 and Rafa was challenged by Fed, Murray and Djoker in 2010. Are you trying to rewrite history?

      • Djoker has a free pass in the 2nd half of 2012 with no Rafa also during the 2nd half of 2014 with an ailing and injured Rafa.

      • Mikkers,

        Yes I do think that Novak was near his best in 2013. When he broke Rafa as he served for the match in the fourth set and then won the TB to force a fifth set, he was playing some great tennis.

        In the fifth set, Novak was up a break. Rafa was the one who stormed back playing some of his most brilliant tennis to break back and win the match.

      • Yes Djoko was close to his best in 2013. You forget he won four tournaments in a row from Beijing to WTF that year. He also won AO, Dubai and MC, reached the finals at Wimbledon and USO. How can he be not near his best?

        Its just that Rafa was playing some of his best tennis that year so he beat Djoko twice at the slams (FO and USO). Murray was playing some good tennis on grass and so he beat Djoko at Wimbledon.

        Djoko cant produce 2011 level tennis all the time; just like Rafa cant produce his 2008 to early 2009 level all the time. Fed couldnt repeat his 2006.

        Though Djoko had a better 2015 than his 2011 results wise, his level of tennis might not necessarily be higher, as his main rivals werent playing any better in 2015 than in 2011.

          • What. And sit with all those Fedfans that cheer for anyone not named Djokovic against Rafa???

          • AT 5:07 PM,
            You can lonely boo against Rafa somewhere far away from Rafa and give a new opportunity to some writers (aka Fedfans) to make up stories that “half the stadium” somewhere booed. You have been fascinated by these imaginary stories. LOL

        • I disagree, I think Djokovic’s level in 2015 was significantly better than in 2011. He was just a lot more efficient.

          As for Djokovic being close to his best in 2013, I see where you guys are coming from. But I just feel he had lost his ability to big points that whole year until somewhere in 2014, when Boris’s influence started to show.

          • Djoko’s 2015 level not necessarily higher than 2011 imo, he’s just more resilient, able to drag his opponents into grinding wars when he had to. In 2011 he was more efficient in that he finishef off his opponents quickly most of the times with 6-1 6-2, even 6-0 scorelines.

          • That is your opinion, which is to be respected. The way I see it though, Djokovic of 2011 used a lot more of his physical prowess to run through opponents, and therefore the scorelines were like the Federer of 2004-07. The Djokovic of 2015, however, served better, had better timing on his groundstrokes and simply chose his moments through tournaments, a la Sampras at his best. The result was evident in that he wasn’t injured/gassed by the end of the season and had a very strong finish. It was a far more complete season.

          • No doubt, but you have to take into consideration the slump of one of his major rivals, hence making life a bit easier for him. His game may be better in 2015 but he has to grind more. I would say he’s more efficient in finishing his matches in 2011 and he lost only 2 matches from AO to USO that year. Physically he might have declined after 4 years from 2011 but he made up for that with better skills.

          • The scorelines might have been similar but given the competition, 2011 was miles above any year from 2004-07.

            A real Nole fan would understand that (whereas a jump-ship expat fedfan would not concede).

            But I agree with you, 2015 Nole was the best year of all time (followed by 2011) IMO.

  13. Here is what Roger thinks:

    Federer: “I am a big fan of him (Rafa) simply because he has been the biggest and complicated opponent I ever had. So I have maximum respect for him. I am the last person to think that he could not win anything anymore. I know how good he is.’

    http://www.tennisworldusa.org/Roger…&utm_medium=facebook&utm_source=socialnetwork

  14. This is what Djoker had to say about his racquet throwing:

    “I threw a racket, it bounced over the fence and I got a warning instantly. So the chair umpire was on fire today. He really wanted to show his authority to me. So congratulations to him.”

    He is lucky he wasn’t defaulted. His on-court behaviour really leaves a lot to be desired.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.