Rome final preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Murray

Novak Djokovic will be looking for back-to-back Masters 1000 titles when he goes up against Andy Murray in a second straight final on Sunday in Rome. Djokovic needed a third-set tiebreaker to get past Kei Nishikori in the semis.

Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray will be squaring off for the 33rd time in their careers and for the second time in as many weeks when they battle for the Internazionali BNL d’Italia title on Sunday.

Djokovic is leading the head-to-head series 23-9, including an even more dominant 12-1 in their last 13 encounters. The top-ranked Serb won eight in a row at Murray’s expense, lost to the Scot in last summer’s Montreal final, and has now picked up four more victories in succession. The familiar foes most recently faced each other in the Madrid title match last Sunday, when Djokovic triumphed 6-2, 3-6, 6-3.

If nothing else, Murray does own the advantage of having enjoyed an earlier and much simpler semifinal contest. Going up against Lucas Pouille in the afternoon, the second seed crushed the lucky loser 6-2, 6-1 in 59 minutes. He preceded that victory by taking out Mikhail Kukushkin, Jeremy Chardy, and David Goffin all in straight sets. Murray is a decent 21-5 for the season, but he is still in search of his first title.
Murray
Djokovic has wobbled from just about start to finish this week, but he has somehow found a way to maintain momentum after lifting the Madrid Trophy. Rome’s No. 1 seed held off qualifier Stephane Robert 7-5, 7-5, got bageled by Thomaz Bellucci before prevailing 0-6, 6-2, 6-3, battled past Rafael Nadal 7-5, 7-6(4), and recovered from another set deficit to outlast Kei Nishikori 2-6, 6-4, 7-6(5) on Saturday. Djokovic is 37-2 for his 2016 campaign with five titles (three of the Masters 1000 variety in addition to the Australian Open).

The four-time Rome champion needed needed three hours and one minute to survive against Nishikori, but bouncing back from grueling efforts has never been a problem for him–at least not since his reign at the top of the game began. Conditions in Rome should suit Djokovic better in a match with Murray than those in Madrid, as the underdog will struggle to hit through him on a slower court. In all likelihood, the impenetrable fortress that is Djokovic’s defense will once again be too tough for Murray.

Pick: Djokovic in 2

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41 Comments on Rome final preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Murray

  1. Djokovic will be feeling the effects after tough matches against Nadal and Nishikori which will take its toll when the pressure mounts in the 3rd set.

    Murray will be well aware of Djokovic’s possible fatigue and will be ready for a long grind.

  2. Murray is too good to lose easily to a player that’s had 2 very tough previous matches, even of Djokovic’s standard. If Djokovic does manage to snatch it it will be in 3.

    GL to all.

  3. Muzz’s got the most aggressive second serve return…easily…when he is on, likes to hit like Agassi.

    2 BPs saved by Novak.

  4. Amy, there was an example of that backhand Murray hit on deuce! moved towards the ball and drilled it CC! Beauty

  5. Keeps out-hitting Djokovic and makes an error on the finishing shot. WTH!

    Murray’s forehand is on today. This Murray will be very tough for Novak

  6. Great tennis right from the start. Andy being super aggressive. frightening

    Vamosrafa – excellent description/explanation of backhands. ty.

  7. Murray missed a great opportunity with that missed backhand. But he has come out very aggressive here.

    More break chances for Murray. Maybe Novak is gassed.

    • combination of both.’ Novak’s come out a bit flat (as I expected) and Murray is killing the ball off both wings and serving too well.

  8. I doubt Murray can sustain this level similar to when fed initially looks good against Rafa. Hard to sustain when the other player has the tactical advantage.

    Seen it many times before.

    • he is hitting his forehand ‘heavy’ today..I doubt he is going to stop doing that. Novak will have to find answers… I think Andy’s level is not going to drop much. His serve has been great all week.

    • Brilliant backhand winner from Murray and holds. Novak starting to play better.

      It’s almost like Novak needs to have a meltdown and then he plays better.

  9. RT @CarlBialik: Of 11 sets Djokovic has played in Rome, this is the 6th in which he has trailed by a break. He came back to win 3 of the first 5.

  10. RT @VladasLasitskas: Djokovic to chair umpire: you showed the world you are the boss, man.

    What does he expect???? He bounced his racquet onto the crowd FFS.

    • He’s losing it a little bit, hawk, the past couple days. But there’s some supporters I know who will turn it around and blame something or someone else.

      • rc,

        I am beginning to wonder about Novak with the meltdowns in these last two matches. It’s almost like he is releasing some pressure and then plays better.

        • Nny,
          Really think he was okay until he whacked himself in the first game of the first set yesterday. It was too much to believe. He wasn’t flat or tanking as some say, he was naturally distracted by what he had done – it hurt! I watched the match over again last night twice. He wants this win but that mistake almost cost him the Kei match. He was out of sorts but still playing brilliant tennis- especially by the 3rd set. Not making an excuse – it’s just what happened. Andy is fresh and playing aggressively – Davis Cup Andy!

          Nole has a bulging bandage on that ankle. I imagine it’s bruised and sore right on the ankle bone, just above his shoe. Beware of wounded bear, lol…

          • rc,

            Thanks for pointing that out. I did not see the first set of that match. But the commentators talked about how Novak whacked his ankle.

            You know your guy well. I think that it must have hurt and that would be distracting.

    • The tennis channel commies pointed out that if Novak’s racket hit a spectator then he would have defaulted the match.

      Murray looks very focused and did a good job to serve it out.

  11. Murray seems extremely quick out there…good ROS…and really great serving… Murray wins the first set!
    Let’s see Novak’s response now…I expect him to raise his level!

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