Who will win the French Open? That question is not exactly packed with suspense. Who is Rafael Nadal’s biggest threat? Now that question–even though it less important–is far more interesting.
Dominic Thiem upset Nadal in Madrid. Novak Djokovic looked something like the Djokovic of old on Saturday at the Internazionali BNL d’Italia. Big hitters like Marin Cilic, John Isner, and–when healthy–Juan Martin Del Potro can, at times, take the racket out of Nadal’s hands. And there is Alexander Zverev, who may be the answer to the aforementioned question.
Zverev, the recent champion in Munich and Madrid, improved to 17-2 on clay this spring by booking his spot alongside Nadal in Sunday’s Rome final. Success at Masters 1000 events is nothing new for the 21-year-old German, who not only triumphed last week in Madrid but also lifted 2017 trophies at this same Rome tournament and in Montreal. He has maintained momentum this week by beating Matteo Berrettini, Kyle Edmund, David Goffin, and Marin Cilic, surrendering only one set to Goffin in the process.
Zverev’s reward is a fifth opportunity to pick up his first-ever win over Nadal. Although the 31-year-old is a perfect 4-0 in the head-to-head series, he needed final sets to hold off Zverev at the 2016 Indian Wells Masters and at the 2017 Australian Open. Unsurprisingly, clay has proven to be a much different story. Nadal clobbered the youngster 6-1, 6-1 last year in Monte-Carlo and 6-1, 6-4, 6-4 earlier this season in a Davis Cup quarterfinal between Spain and Germany.
Still, the 16-time Grand Slam champion is not expecting a walk in the park–not with the way Zverev is playing these days.
“It will be a tough one,” Nadal noted. “Sascha is playing great, winning a lot of matches in a row. Tomorrow I need to be ready to keep playing my best, and that’s what I’m going to try.”
That is exactly what the top seed has been doing in Rome as he tries to make amends for his stunning Madrid loss to Thiem that ended a 50-set winning streak on clay. Nadal also dropped a set to Fabio Fognini on Friday, but he rolled over Damir Dzumhur and Denis Shapovalov and did well to pass a stern test from Djokovic 7-6(4), 6-3 in the semifinals.
Although Zverev also got off the court in straight sets, he once again finished much later than Nadal after requiring two hours and one minute to defeat Cilic. The second seed, who took a brief medical timeout for a shoulder issue on Saturday, also survived tough ones against Edmund and Goffin. All of this recent tennis is bound to catch up with Zverev–especially with the toughest physical test in tennis (facing Nadal on a clay court) awaiting him.
Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 8 games or fewer
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Mira and nny…see you on Sunday for the beginning of RG!!
Vamos rafa!!
Go Petra and simona!!
Yeah amy!!….See ya in Paris!!Have a good day amy!!
amy,
See you when RG starts! I look forward to chatting with you and enjoying the tennis!
You hang in there! You have friends here, so you are not alone!
😘
Vamos Rafa!!! Congrats to us Rafans, condolences to the Fedfans.
That was WAY too close! Try to pick it up for RG, you hear, Rafa?
Oh lol, Rafa making his speech, congratulating Zverev for his “amazing” streak of 15 wins *at such a young age*. Has Rafa forgotten what he did at 19?
Sorry to see that Raonic is injured again or still. Not a fan, but still…
He also said “on this surface”. LOL
Yes, there is only one king of clay.
Great comeback for Nadal; congrats on an 8th Rome title. Zverev certainly played well after the first set, and (imo) would have held on without the rain delay. Overall, I thought he was the stronger player from the baseline before the delay. He came close, but it was not to be.
What Zverev and others have shown in this tournament, however, is that Nadal is far from unbeatable on clay. Losing a set to Fog, being taken to a TB by Djokovic, and being served a bread-stick my Zverev, shows how much lower Rafa’s level is than it was in MC, where he looked untouchable. Or maybe it shows how the field has improved since then. Either way, although Nadal is still the clear favourite to win in Paris, I put the odds lower than I would have a month ago.
+1
Joe, I see what your saying. But there’s a key theme here. Rafa won still 😂
Again I’ve to say, it depends on who’s his opponents. His opponents in MC – Thiem, Dimi – no doubt Thiem beat him in Rome last year but that’s because Rafa was running on fumes. Thiem then lost easily to Djoko, when Djoko was struggling with injuries. Dimi has never beaten Rafa on clay.
Foggy has beaten Rafa thrice, twice on clay and when Rafa was having the upper hand but Foggy managed to turn the table in the final set so Rafa is well aware of Foggy’s threat. Likewise for Djoko here at Rome. Sasha has a big game and is in a red hot streak; so the three of them have done better than Rafa’s MC opponents.
I should also say: Rome was a *far* more interesting tournament, due to Nadal’s matches being far more interesting, than Monte Carlo was. It may be nerve-racking for his fans, but it’s great for tennis to see him challenged on clay!
In fact I’m so glad that Rafa got to meet and beat Foggy and Djoko here in Rome before the FO.
I’ve mentioned in one of my earlier posts, Rafa has played against all possible challengers during the clay warm ups – Thiem, Sasha, Dimi, Goffin the top ten players; young up and coming stars Tsitsipas and Shapo; seasoned players like Kei, Foggy and Djoko. He pass with flying colours, doing as well in 2018 as his 2017, ie three titles including two masters plus a Masters QF, same number of points. He lost four sets last year (MC R2, Madrid R2, Rome QF straight sets). He lost four sets this year – Madrid QF straight sets, one set at Rome QF and Rome final.
I hope he does the same at the FO, ie winning it in straight sets too, though it may be tougher this time.
Winner of Rome back to No. 1 where the GOAT belongs.
Coulda woulda shoulda don’t cut it in tennis I’m afraid.
Keep hearing all the ‘not unbeatable’ bravado from the hater (when no one has said otherwise) but Rafa keeps on keeping on. Stick to reading your fedfan subjectively weighted analysis.
Jeff Sackmann’s objective ELO analysis says it all.
Vamos GOAT!
“What happened is I played one of the best sets that I played on clay this year. First set was fantastic, in my opinion, in terms of everything. Feeling, good shots, tactically, everything was great. Returning great. All the things that I wanted to do happened. So, it was a great set. Then in the second, couple of things happened. First thing I was, I believe, not like in the first game of the second set. I had a chance to have a break. Because I brought in the 30-all, I brought a great return. He made a drop shot from nowhere, being honest. A drop shot that probably doesn’t exist. But, he make it. And he make it great. Then he break me, and then the things went quick. I had balls to be 3-1, but I didn’t convert it. Then I had love-30 to be 5-2 but didn’t convert it. The court was slower later. The beginning was hot, fast conditions, bounces higher. So, that helps a little bit more my game. And I was feeling great. Then the beginning of the second, it started to be much more cloudy, the game became slowly, and probably he started feeling better the ball. And I stopped doing the things that I needed to do. I’m lucky that I started to do it again. Not too late.” But exactly what changed in third set? ” I had to change something because, in my opinion, he was taking advantage from inside. In the first set, I was able to open the court against him, to change the rhythm of the point with the slice, hitting high balls, going for the winners. I did great. Then the court become slower, so I started to hit, trying to hit with a lot of topspin. But the ball stays heavier, so the bounces were lower. I take a while to understand again what’s going on. Then I made a little bit the tactical error at the end of the match that I made at the beginning. Hitting probably without accelerating the match, because the ball didn’t get that many topspin later when the conditions became slower. I didn’t play no one day with that conditions here. I play all the days during the day. So, when it started to be cloudy and when it started to be slower, for me it was new feelings. Different to all the things that I felt during the week. Especially on the return. I felt at the beginning I was hitting long enough and I was taking advantage of that. Then, I felt even with his second serve, for a while, I was not creating no one advantage. Completely the opposite. The second serve, he was able to hit the first ball with perfect position. And I was just running to save the points. When I came back, I believe I started to return again much higher and longer. And then everything changed then.”
Exactly what I was saying!
When the rain delay came and Rafa was down a break in the the third set I took my dog ‘Rafa’ out for his walk fully expecting to come back to find Rafa had lost. Luckily for him the Rain Gods came to his rescue and he used the time to regroup whereas it brought Sascha’s momentum to a standstill. But that’s tennis for you – it’s never over till the fat lady has sung.
So Zverev didn’t win a game after the break then..lol
Rain has thrown Rafa off too quite a few times
1. Rafa could have taken Roger out in straights at wimby 2008. The first rain delay helped Federer regroup. The second rain delay helped Rafa
2. THe rain put paid to Rafa getting the job done in straights in 2012 french final. The postponement helped him regroup to get back
3. Rafa won the fourth set against Rosol at 2012 and had the momentum and they had to close the roof owing to rain and Rosol broke Rafa right after the break in the fifth
4. Rafa was going to serve for the second set at the 2011 french final and they had to go off for rain. Fed came back to break. Fortunately he could win the set in the TB
These are some I recollect at the top of my head.
Yeap, whoever plays to the conditions better would have the upperhand. Rain delays are not uncommon, so players have to cope.
Rafa was more experienced here and coped with the situations better. The court conditions in set 2 and 3 didnt favor Rafa (like when it started raining in FO2012 final allowing Djoko to hit hard flat shots with the heavier balls without having the balls flying over the lines). However, Rafa made use of the rain delay to regroup and rethink his strategy.
Was Rafa lucky, maybe; but he’s unlucky many times with rain delays – that Wimbledon 2012 match vs Rosol was one, when Rafa won the fourth set with momentum in his favor; rain came and they closed the roof using 45 mins or so; Rosol regrouped and came out serving and hitting without missing to beat Rafa.
You gain some and you lose some, this time it works in Rafa’s favor.
Every single aspect of a tennis match has to be viewed as just a part of the sport, including weather and delays. Same with fitness, injuries, timeouts, etc. It’s all part of the sport, ang that’s just the truth. That is why the most professional players handle those situations the best. Rafa and the other all-tome greats know how to still win when those non-tennis adversities come up. Zverev is not there yet… This was actually a really great learning experience for Zverev. He was going to have to learn at some point that rain delays do come at inopportune times. Now he’s experienced it. He’ll obviously be disappointed, but the fact that he came as close as he did to beating Rafael Nadal in a CLAY final should give him so sort of confidence. My concern, like everyone else, is still his inability to translate his game to best-of-five… He will surely want no part whatsoever of seeing Rafa at RG!
Hi Kevin,it’s been a while without seeing you posting here! As a big Djoko fan,I believe you have reasons to smile after he showed some glimpses of his best level.
Do you think he can make a deep run this season mate?
I think you’re confusing me with someone else, Gaviria… I’ve always been quite open about how I like Federer and Rafa way more than Djokovic. I am in no way what most people would consider a “Djokovic fan”.
However, as far as his chances go, I honestly don’t know what to make of him right now. I think I look at him right now how I viewed Rafa and Fed during their respective slumps. Meaning that I just cannot expect anything huge from Novak until I see it happen again. And for any of the Big 3, “huge” means title or bust. By that standard, I would never pick Novak to win a major again until he actually does it, or at very least makes a Final and makes it competitive.
What do you think?
I disagree, Kevin. I think Zverev can’t wait to play Nadal on clay again. Maybe it will happen at RG, but since they can only meet in the final, it might be unlikely on Zverev’s side. But Sascha is improving by leaps and bounds. I’d say it’s more like: if there’s a player Rafa doesn’t want to face on clay it might well be Zverev.
Please give me a break! The toughest task in tennis is trying to take out Rafa in a Bof5 set match at RG!
I think it’s still Djokovic.
Rafa knows that if he’s playing well – which he is – he has a very good chance at RG. He also knows that sometimes sh*t happens.
Ramara,
I guess my point is that Rafa is not going to fear playing someone who has not won at RG or any other slam. Zverev has not proved himself in a Bof5 slam. I like him and think he is the rest thing. But that is one thing he has not been able to do yet.
I think Novak, even not at his best, would be someone Rafa would not want to see on the other side of the net. Novak has won RG, the career slam, twelve slams in all, been the number one player for about three or four years and dominated the game. He has the wind and the record that would make Rafa not want to face him even if he is not at his best.
It would be like me saying that the one player Fed does not want to face at Wimbledon is Zverev!
I think Zverev is the REAL thing! *
Yes, maybe it’s Djokovic. But right now Zverev is the better player, and he actually won (and dominated) a set from Nadal. Notice that I didn’t say Nadal fears playing him: that would be absurd. But Rafa has said many times that he prefers to play weaker players rather than stronger ones, and I’m sure he would like to meet someone other than, say, Zverev, Novak, or Thiem if possible.
Sascha mentioned in his interview that he is glad that he will be in the other half as Rafa at RG. You would not want to face Rafa at RG unless one is a masochist. I am sure every one of the other 127 players think that someone else will do the dirty work and they can pick up the pieces. Like how a certain TMF won the French.
Sascha is no Joe Blow.
Fed said he’d love to play Rafa at the French knowing he was skipping clay.
Only stupid to want to play Rafa at the French unless you have too. Easy for haters to put words in his mouth LOL.
Vamos GOAT!
Of course Sasha wants to play Rafa at the FO, that means he is in the final! A slam final looks elusive for Sasha, his best result at the slams is at Wimbledon, where he reached the fourth round, in 2017.
Exactly LS.
Not unless he has to, like every other player on the planet.
Except for Federer, who made sure he wouldn’t have to!!! ROTFL!!!
Vamos GOAT!
I agree with you, Joe, if we are talking about tour-level clay events. In that case, Zverev (alongside Thiem) has proven to be a guy who can challenge Rafa on clay. However, I’m not talking about tour-level, I’m talking about Roland Garros. And it’s just a fact that Zverev has utterly failed in best-of-five tournaments, aka majors. If Zverev still hasn’t learned how get passed the 4th round at a major, then facing Rafa on clay in best-of-five is just a horrible scenario… And I’m not at all saying that Zverev CAN’T beat Rafa at RG because we all
Know that anything can happen no matter what the circumstances. But the odds are highly stacked against Zverev in this case. If he is still learning how to win best-of-five matches, then facing arguably the biggest challenge in tennis history (Rafa at RG) would just the hugest mountain to climb. I just don’t see how anyone can have any confidence that Zverev can just suddenly start playing well at Majors at the snap of a finger. If it did happen at RG, where he suddenly made his breakout at a major, nobody could claim that they saw it coming… We’ve been saying it’s coming for over a year now, after winning Masters titles even, and it just hasn’t happened. So if somebody tried to claim that they “know” that Zverev will breakout this year at RG, that would be “guessing”, not “knowing”. We were in the exact same position last year where Zverev destroyed defending RG champ Djokovic in the Rome final, and we all naturally became certain he would at least challenge for the RG title. But he shit the bed at RG like he does at every major. I hope he ends his awful streak at slams ASAP because he is just too good to not be regularly making at least SF at majors. I don’t know what it is about best-of-five that he hasn’t even been able to make even a single QF run, but I hope he figures it out sooner than later!
I would like to point out at no time did I say Rafa was injured. I was merely reported comments made to me by a sports doctor who suggested Rafa was being careful not to aggravate the hip problem which kept him out of the game earlier this year. i.e he no longer chases down every single ball as he did when he was younger. Today he is more likely to make the judgement it is a lost cause and pull up.
ed,
I think I get where you were coming from. But you know there are those here who will more out it than it was meant to be.
I just honestly felt that it was mental on Rafa’s part. Also the change in the weather with the rainy conditions.
I think overall Rafa is not chasing down every single ball all the time. I think that is just taking care of his body in general. Rafa can’t play attritional tennis anymore. So I have seen that at times he won’t go after a bal if he has no chance. It’s not just since the hip injury.
I don’t think Rafa can play if he is thinking about guarding against injury. He has to just go out there and play and trust his body. His movement has been really good.
Those here who will MAKE more out of that it was! *
I’m sure there’s some truth to that, Ed. But I also think that some of those balls that Zverev hit simply weren’t getting chased down by anyone. A well struck and well placed shot in men’s tennis is basically unreturnable.
Still, I’ve noticed what you’re saying at least back to the 2017 AO final, when it seemed to me that Rafa didn’t give chase to some of Federer’s winners. That was a much faster surface, so maybe there was just no chance on some of them. Also, when a player gets wrong-footed it can sometimes look as if they aren’t trying to chase, when in reality it’s just that all their momentum is going in the other direction.
I meant to say Novak has the WINS and the record that would make Rafa not want to play him. *
Rafa is not going to chase down every ball; only those that matter more, ie during an important point for example.
I think Rafa just plays whoever is in his draw, he knows sometimes is unavoidable that he has to play Djoko or Sasha or both like in Rome here. I like Rafa’s problem solving abilities out there, but of course he’s human so he has his own fears or worries or he can get agitated or shaky at times. The thing is, he’s not going to give up but tries all the time to fight for the win and so, many times he comes back from the brink and snatches victory out of the mouth of defeat. This is not the first time and it won’t be the last. Great champions can do that – Fed and Djoko have done that too.
Regarding Sasha, I’m impressed by his fitness, he had played three weeks in a row, won two out of three events and reached the final of the other. So, he had played 14 matches winning 13 of them, very impressive.
The one guy that could match him for the record was Rafa in 2009, where Rafa played and won MC, Barcelona and Madrid B2B2B, when at that time there wasn’t a one week break between Barcelona and Madrid. Rafa was 22 almost 23 back then.
With such fitness, perhaps Sasha is going to get deep at the slams. He has grown to be a formidable opponent, not only on clay but everywhere else.
Rafa can handle him if Rafa comes out all guns blazing the way he did in set one, or at the FO, plays like his 2017. Rafa was ruthless during 2017 FO. If you give Sasha time to breathe, he will be able to fight back, so the key is to rush him into errors.
At Rome, Rafa had beaten three tough opponents consecutively; each time he had the upper hand and that said something about Rafa’s game on clay; however he let the advantage slipped away and had to fight hard to win the matches. Perhaps, Rome is the place where Rafa has to be tested before he embarks on the journey to his 11th FO title.
I believe with the battles fought and won and the trophy in hand, Rafa is ready for his FO title defence.
I actually thought there was a difference between Nadal’s matches against Djokovic, on the one hand, and Fognini and Zverev, on the other. Against Novak, I never felt that the match was anywhere but in Rafa’s hands, on his racquet. This version of Djokovic just doesn’t have the baseline game or the consistency to match him.
Fognini and Zverev, on the other hand, showed for long stretches the kind of hitting that can take the racquet out of Nadal’s hand. Neither one could sustain it for the length required, but I feel that Zverev was close and in the near future he will have the game to beat Nadal on clay. He’s already shown he has the game to beat Fed on HC and maybe this year will show the same on grass.
Joe, do read what Rafa said about the court conditions changes when dark cloud gathered and then the rain came. It’s not unlike that FO2012 final match vs Djoko; Zverev was helped by those conditions then and it took Rafa quite a while to figure that out. If it’s in the past when Rafa was at his peak, I doubt he needed so long to figure things out; my qualms now is that Rafa these days takes a long time to figure out certain things during his matches, so as a result he may lose a set in the process.
For Zverev and Djoko or even Foggy to beat Rafa on clay, they have to play their best for a long stretch and for Rafa to be off his game. I give you that Djoko was playing his best during Madrid and Rome 2011 and MC 2013 when Rafa wasn’t playing badly. However, for the other matches, Rafa was simply not there, playing subpar tennis even on clay.
Beating Fed on HC or grass doesn’t equate to beating Rafa on clay. Rafa’s tactical mind helped him to win in the end; Rafa simply has different levels and dimensions to his game; he could just vary the way he hits his shots, his placements etc which is why it’s so difficult to beat him on clay. Zverev OTOH, is another Delpo, relying on a great serve and raw power to overpower his opponents.
On grass and HCs, it may be easier for Zverev to play his game to overwhelm others, as those courts don’t give his opponents too much time to defend, and that’s why I feel Zverev will have better results on grass and HCs in time to come. Madrid plays more like a HC, hence Zverev’s didn’t lose his serve, not once!
Well said Lucky. Zverev is a great player to beat Federer on the only two surfaces he plays on indeed.
Beating a focussed Rafa on clay is another matter all together and at RG when healthy ? Never been done.
Peak federer has been beaten on all surfaces at slams at slams by better players such as Rafa and Nole.
Of course this is part of why Rafa come out on top on Jeff Sackmann’s objective ELO analysis.
Joe Blow fans should stick to fedfan biased lists with biased weighting formulas.
Lucky, if Rafa can’t immediately figure out that cloudy and damp conditions are going to slow the court down and make the ball bounce lower and spin less, then he’s not very bright. Of course he knows those things without thinking.
The main factor in Nadal coming back after the delay in the 3rd set was, as you’ve said, his better ability to adapt to the break, which is part of the game. 6′ 6” Zverev had cooled down/tightened up quite a bit, and when play resumed he never got close to the level at which he had been playing prior to the break. That’s the main reason (imo) that he lost, not Nadal’s adjustments.
I don’t buy that for a minute. I watched my recording of that third set after the rain delay three times. Zverev was actually playing well. He did not come out and just play crap tennis. But Rafa was very aggressive and focused. He was clear about what he wanted to do. He just took the match away from Zverev, who did not play badly. He may not have handled the rain delay as well as Rafa. So be it. He will learn. But Rafa was too good. He just was determined to win when he came out after the rain delay.
I do not think the Fog could take the racket out of Rafa’s hands. He won one set and then only won three games in the next two sets,
Rafa is a formidable opponent on clay. His movement is still amazing at this point in his career. He has so much variety in his game that he can beat an opponent in many ways.
Well, in his post-game interview Sascha said that he tightened up quite a bit during the delay and didn’t come out loose. Again, that’s on him, and props to Rafa for coming out ready to go. But Zverev seemed to think, and I agree, that he was playing well below the level he was at before the delay. You obviously see things differently.
Regarding Fognini, the result is what it is; he couldn’t do what he needed to do for more than 5 games in the first set. Personally, I think that if Fognini had Zverev’s work ethic and mental strength, he would be a multi-slam champion. But he doesn’t.
I have never denied that Rafa is formidable on clay, which is a massive understatement. My recent comments have been limited to the observation that he doesn’t look *as* formidable on clay as he did a month ago.
So many Joe Blow backtracks and coulda woulda shoulda.
Federer doesn’t look as good as he did during the weak era but he’s still going to win Wimbledon because it’s still a weak era on grass ATM and Wimby traditions of cushy draws, schedules and closed roof on demand. Unless Sascha discovers how to play BO5. If he does, I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see Sascha have his way with Federer like he did when he basically schooled him on grass in Halle at just 19. He’s two years older now and the fountain of juice has to expire eventually.
Unless a cloud appears and they rush to close the roof of course…
Joe, you’re saying Rafa is not very bright?? You made me laugh, as a not very bright Rafa has/had caused Fed so much headaches and heartaches on the tennis court! That speaks a lot about Fed and his even less bright mentality.
Rafa is always bright, we do not have to doubt that; it’s a matter of him willing to make the changes immediately or too nervous to make any changes. It seems that in the second set, once Rafa lost his serve, Zverev upped his level and Rafa might be the one tightening up and was not thinking calmly, and that’s the thing I’ve qualms with. Rafa being a great champion sometimes is/was so lacking in confidence, giving his opponents too much respect I feel.
Foggy and Zverev’s play could take the racket out of opponent’s hand? Well, many big hitters could do that, all the big four could do that too! The difference – the big four could do that and sustain that level of play long enough to win the match, the others the like of Foggy, Zverev couldn’t, esp against a big four guy, and that’s the difference!
The difference between the big four and these guys is – the big four could raise their level during the match when they need to, to win the match; these other guys couldn’t!
Joe failed to realize one thing: not all opponents are equal. You can’t equate a Goffin, or a Dimi, to a Djoko or a Sasha! Do you expect Rafa to beat all of them 6–1, 6-4 in their matches??
Rafa in 2017 lost a set to Edmund at MC and lost a set to none other than Foggy at Madrid. Did you at that time say the same thing, that Rafa wasn’t looking formidable? Yet, what happened at the FO last year?
Lucky, you truly have to work on your reading. Read my post above again and you’ll see clearly that I didn’t say Rafa wasn’t bright; quite the opposite.
Nor did I say Nadal wasn’t formidable on clay; again, quite the opposite. I said he wasn’t looking *as* formidable as he was a month ago. I even emphasized it as I have just done.
I think Dimitrov and Nishikori are very formidable players on any surface. They weren’t competitive with Nadal in MC. Several players were (more) competitive with him in Rome (never mind Madrid, which is very different conditions). The main reason, I think, is that Rafa’s level, particularly on his serve, is not as high as it was a month ago.
When HASN’T Joe Blow emphasized “Nadal isn’t as formidable” blah blah.
His open daydream doomsaying before a tournament inevitablely turns into another coulda-woulda-shoulda about why Rafa’s opponent dropped the ball after Rafa wins another title further cementing him as GOAT and justifying Jeff Sackmann’s excellent ELO analysis of why Federer is no longer GOAT.
Quite funny really.
Joe, please refer to your own post at 8.15pm, if you’re trying to be sarcastic then expect a sarcastic response in return!
You failed to realise one thing, you kept saying Rafa was not as formidable as during MC but you failed to take into consideration Rafa’s opponents at Rome. Kei at MC wasn’t better than Kei at Rome, Djoko beat Kei earlier at Madrid in two sets but had to go the distance at Rome, that meant Kei was getting better when Djoko was also getting better!. Goffin and Dimi on clay are << Foggy and Djoko and Sasha on clay.
The fact that Rafa still had the upper hand vs all three of them before they fought back said a lot about Rafa’s level. When you have formidable opponents, you’ve to expect them to fight back, those three certainly do/did.
And Joe, are you saying Rafa is lying? Rafa said all those things himself, I didn’t make that up!
I repeat, I’ve qualms about Rafa being nervous and tightening up resulting in him not being able to respond immediately to changes in conditions. A Rafa in his younger days when he’s at his peak would not allowed Zverev to win the set 6-1 against him. Against Djoko under similar conditions at FO2012, he at least managed two games; Djoko >> Zverev!
Lying about what? Rafa has his own take, in which he mentions that Zverev hit a great drop shot at the beginning of the set, and then mentions the several chances he (Rafa) had but didn’t take. He does mention the court slowing down, but doesn’t say that he failed to notice or adjust to it. Basically, although he doesn’t come out and say it, he knows that he just got outplayed in the second set.
Interesting too that Nadal doesn’t think Zverev’s “failure” so far at the slams is an issue. In his words, “tennis is tennis,” and there’s no reason that a player who has won masters 1000s can’t win slams as well.
To me that shows that Nadal recognizes that there’s no reason that Zverev couldn’t start doing very well, perhaps winning, slams right now. He just played a competitive final against the best clay player, with chances to win. Following Rafa’s reasoning, it shouldn’t be a stretch to imagine Zverev doing the same at RG, perhaps winning the final.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qZYQzzsiElg
Joe, you really want to argue for the sake of arguing. The way Rafa put it, of course he’s aware of the condition changes; it’s just that Sasha was taking advantage of the situation and was having the upper hand and Rafa had to do all the defending chasing after the ball. If you think a TOP player could just flip a switch and turned things around just like that, then why these TOP players are/were still losing some of their matches, and sometimes to non TOP players?
Sasha had the upper hand in the second set, just like Djoko had his during FO2012 final in the third set; but, did they win in the end?
Rafa knew how to adjust to the conditions, if not he won’t be winning in the end. Sasha to win the FO? Well I give him better chances at Wimbledon , when his serves and hard hitting will serve him well, may even overwhelm the aging defending champion along the way.
Joe made me laughed by saying its not Rafa adjustments that made the difference but it’s Sasha’s level that had gone down after the rain break! Anyone whos not blind or biased against Rafa would have noticed that Rafa came out all guns blazing after the rain break. If he played the same way he did in set two, Sasha might even win in the end!
Like what Rafa said, he hit high balls with depth, making it difficult for Sasha to get his racket on the ball to hit his hard and penetrating shots, and Rafa would then make his way forward to get ready for his next shot, rushing Sasha in the process. Sasha didn’t hit like he did in set two because Rafa didn’t allow him to do so!
Hope rafa gets a good draw at rg. .players I don’t want on his side are djoko and nick kygios ..not that rafa can’t beat them but he does give them too much respect…and that meeting can happen as early as 3rd…delpo could be another danger but he is injured
Winner of Rome back to No. 1 where the GOAT belongs.
Coulda woulda shoulda don’t cut it in tennis I’m afraid.
Keep hearing all the ‘not unbeatable’ bravado from the hater (when no one has said otherwise) but Rafa keeps on keeping on. Stick to reading your fedfan subjectively weighted analysis.
Jeff Sackmann’s objective ELO analysis says it all.
Vamos GOAT!!!!
Sascha is no Joe Blow.
Fed said he’d love to play Rafa at the French knowing he was skipping clay.
Only stupid to want to play Rafa at the French unless you have too. Easy for haters to put words in his mouth LOL.
Vamos GOAT!!!
MA,
Can you find that clip of the baby saying – I love you to Rafa? I can’t find where you posted it.
Thanks!
Oh!Sure Nny!…here it is!…
https://www.givemesport.com/1316225-rafael-nadal-breaks-focus-because-of-brilliant-moment-in-the-crowd?autoplay=off
MA,
Thank you so much!
You are the best!
😍
Hehehe…You’re most welcome M’lady!…
Oh!..Nny!….I just noticed yesterday when i watched the replay[final]…I think this same baby called ‘Rafa!Rafa!’ when Rafa was about to serve in the 3rd set 3 3 15 15…And Rafa just stopped for a minute & turned his head to his left[no doubt to the baby’s voice]….and just smiled widely!!..haha…
I tried to find the article/video about it..but so far..none!
MA,
Are we sure that he was saying it to Rafa? I assume he was. In English, not Italian.
Did you hear that baby again in the final? Because I still have my recording. Maybe I should check it out.
Hehehe…Oh yes ma’am!!…I heard it before Rafa stopped his act to serve…And turned his head to the voice..It was the same voice Nny!..only ‘I love u’ missing this time…God!..It’s so cute those moment!
MA,
I watched my recording again. You said it was at 3-3 15-15 in the third set. I did hear a baby when Rafa was serving. I could not mahevout what the baby was saying. I couldn’t understand it. But Rafa did hear the baby sbd stopped and smiled briefly. But we don’t know if it was the same baby.
I could not make out what the baby was saying. *
Oh!Okay Nny!….Tho,i still think it was the same baby…hehe…That’s okay!
Sure he’s no Joe Blow and can play a couple of good sets in a Masters (against anyone but Rafa) but Zverev hasn’t shown the ability to do damage in best of five.
Saschas game can do more damage on grass.
Surface cherry picker Fed better hope Saschas best of five woes continue at Wimbledon because Sascha could definitely take him down if they don’t. Saschas already beaten Federer on clay and grass don’t forget
Of course he won’t be in feds half obviously.
Sorry HARD COURT and grass. Most likely would have tagged Fed on clay by now if Federer hadn’t yet become a cherry picker.
Even though I am a rafa fan…I don’t understand your utter dislike of Federer to this extent hawkeye. Is it actually towards fed or towards his biased fans who dislike rafa with a passion ?
I have never disliked Federer ..I only have an issue with the name calling n disrespect quiet a few of his rabid fans indulge in towards rafa…
Well said sanju.
Federer is a great player. One of the GOATs and I respect his game enormously. I consider myself fortunate to have watched him play live.
Like Rafa, his game and style will never be duplicated.
To answer your question, it’s a small majority of his fans. Sorry if it’s not obvious.
If anyone on this site thinks Zverev can beat Fed in Wimby , you can very well guess his intellect level.
Of all biased Fed and Rafa fans, that guy is the dumbest.
Zverev has no chance at Wimble
I wonder. Zverev lost the Rome final but he’s leading the Race and without having done well at a slam…yet. His legs look stronger now. I think he’ll start doing better at slams. If he does he may well be the year end No 1 this year depending on how Rafa/Fed do at the slams. Health is a question for both now but AZ seems to be quite healthy.
It’s just as dumb as thinking Zverev can beat Rafa at RG!
yep
Agreed fedexal. Almost the same mentality as thinking Zverev can beat Rafa at RG.
Except I’m not remotely serious.
No fedexal. You are dumber with complete lack of context.
You used the word condolences in a wrong context Ramara. Rafa is not an enemy, just a great player we can all learn something from, especially discipline and power of will.
There could be a way that A.Zverev could win Wimby. Both Fed and Rafa have first week shock losses and Sascha has good draw in which he can win each match including the final in 3 sets. And gets lucky too – one match opponent retires and another is a w/o.
Every year I say to myself – Federer won’t win another GS. One of these years I will be right lol. I don’t dislike Federer. He’s been amazing. I just think it’s unreal that he keeps winning.
Zverev could beat Rafa at Wimbledon. An early loss by Rafa is not what Zverev needs in order to have a chance.
But wouldn’t it be better if he didn’t have to see Rafa across the net. Same with Federer and Djokovic, for that matter….who else. The point here is luck and not having reserving energy = if he is to win. It’s not very likely this year. Doing well, going deep and knocking out a big grass court player in the process is more what I hope to see from him.
*reserving his energy to make it through to the final — if he is to win.
If Rafa wins French, I expect him to make some noise at Wimby this year.
Fed is also not a lock for Wimby though he is surely the favorite.
No one is a lock for USO, it is the widest open slam.
I expect Djoko to start getting sharp by the time Wimby comes around..
Fed is lock. Won’t lose a set.
Ricky and I agree on something.
#Worried
lol
That is going too far. He lost his last 2 matches , is 37 and no one has seen him play for last 2 months..to say he will not even drop a set is too much given his age…he is more susceptible to ups n downs now.
Note to self:
Bookmark link to this post for closed roof Wimby final post match.
#ToldYouSoGoldenOpportuniesAreEverywhere
Sanju, it’s very unlikely that Rafa will make it far at Wimbledon this year, after his results the last several years. He will be 32. If he wins RG he will be exhausted and the change of surface is no good for him. Imo, he won’t win another non-RG slam.
Federer is surely the favourite to win Wimby, but it is wishful thinking for any Fed fan to predict that he won’t drop a set. Nadal has a better chance of doing that at RG this year, but I don’t think he will. Last year was highly unusual for both of them, and neither has been as good this year. They are both a year older, the next Gen field is stronger, and Djokovic may be approaching his old self. Wawrinka may even surprise at RG.
Federer’s advanced age is a wild-card for any prediction made about him. Everything he does from this point out is gravy. It’s like Ratcliff says: every year one thinks that he can’t possibly win another slam, but somehow he keeps doing it.
Well Zverev can meet Rafa only in semi and if Rafa reaches semi at Wimby, chance of big upset is less as most of the grass would have vanished from the courts. Ofcourse the roof can close and then he can outhit Rafa..but frankly I feel Rafa wants to do well at Wimby one last time and he will (hopefully this year by going deep)
Let him win RG first. I dont think Rafa can win Wimby this year with his below par serve , I hope he surprises me though.
Sanju — meeting Rafa in the SF wouldn’t work for Sascha. Rafa won’t lose if he gets that far or if he does lose, he’ll still fight through 5 sets and his opponent will be toast. Same with Federer. Someone else has to knock out Rafa and Federer earlier. And whoever that someone is that knocks out Federer or Rafa will have been through a lot. Sascha then meets the one mystery man in the SF but doesn’t have to play him because he gives Sascha a W/O. Then he meets someone who has been through a harder draw than he has in the final…Novak or Dimitrov or Muller….and Sascha wins the title in straight sets. I like it. Well I wouldn’t mind Novak winning another Wimby either! 😀
It’s just fun to speculate on how Sascha possibly could win Wimby after Ricky said absolutely not.
If Rafa and Zverev met in the semis at RG, Rafa would destroy him imo. Also I don’t think Zverev is getting past the quarters. He has set himself for yet another slam letdown with these impressive but tiring runs at the masters. Rafa and Thiem to face in the finalswould probably be my pick if they landed on opposite sides of the draw.
Yeah, Benny – agree about RG. It would be a good result for Sascha to make the QF.
I was just speculating about how he might go deep at Wimby (with a lot of luck)
Actually, I don’t expect Sasha to win or even go deep at Wimby either. There will be perhaps a healthy Delpo and Raonic and other names I’m forgetting right now Wimbles.
Could take another year for him to add in the type of endurance Sascha needs to go deep in GS’s.
Jez Green on the subject:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r1paSEbKbFs
correction to my above post:
Raonic is skipping FO, sorry about that and Delpo is in doubt, as I posted on his player page.
Rafa and Sasha can only meet in the final of FO; it’s unlikely that Sasha is making the final there, over BO5, guys like Kei or Goffin or Djoko will have better chances against him.
I can see Sasha doing a lot better on grass this year,but I guess Ricky is remembering the beatdown he got from Fed.
Who is 37, so is going to lose sometime
Oh you probably mean last year in Halle 😀
I don’t know how Federer does it — it’s certainly age-defying and I’d like to buy a bottle of it. Federer will be going for how many Wimbles? And how he can just skip the entire clay season – play Stuttgart, Halle going for his ? win there, and then win another go win another Wimbles? But that’s what Ricky and Hawkeye are saying and they are a whole lot better at predicting what Federer does than I am!!
As for Sascha, he’s an improved player from last year – it took him 3 sets to beat every opponent in he met in Halle, I think. But he got to the final. And I think he could improve on his performance and beat Federer in Halle.
Not so sure about the second week at Wimbledon. lol unbelievable Federer!
unbelievable Rafa too 😀
They can only meet in the SF of Wimbledon, by then Rafa is hard to beat and Sasha may be worn out by then. I’ll rather trust Rafa in a slam SF than a player who hasn’t gone past R4 at a slam.
obviously
Never underestimate Federer or Rafa.
Sasha can and will do better this year on grass. Last season he reached the final of Halle and R4 of Wimbledon (the best at a slam for him). He’s a much improved player this year, with a better and bigger serve and improved movements and groundstrokes too.
With his big game, playing on grass would require less physical endurance unlike playing on clay; his big serve will certainly help him to win his points quickly thus avoiding long drawn out matches on grass. I think he’ll go far on grass, may reach QF or even SF at Wimbledon.
I fully expect Zverev to do well in the grass season this year. As you say, his serve and movement are both improved. In fact, he is quickly become an all-court player who can be expected to contend on any surface. He also has the right mindset to win at the highest levels. I think we’ll see him do very well in the remaining slams this year.
Agree .As Ls says he could well get to the semis of Wimby.