Who will win the French Open? That question is not exactly packed with suspense. Who is Rafael Nadal’s biggest threat? Now that question–even though it less important–is far more interesting.
Dominic Thiem upset Nadal in Madrid. Novak Djokovic looked something like the Djokovic of old on Saturday at the Internazionali BNL d’Italia. Big hitters like Marin Cilic, John Isner, and–when healthy–Juan Martin Del Potro can, at times, take the racket out of Nadal’s hands. And there is Alexander Zverev, who may be the answer to the aforementioned question.
Zverev, the recent champion in Munich and Madrid, improved to 17-2 on clay this spring by booking his spot alongside Nadal in Sunday’s Rome final. Success at Masters 1000 events is nothing new for the 21-year-old German, who not only triumphed last week in Madrid but also lifted 2017 trophies at this same Rome tournament and in Montreal. He has maintained momentum this week by beating Matteo Berrettini, Kyle Edmund, David Goffin, and Marin Cilic, surrendering only one set to Goffin in the process.
Zverev’s reward is a fifth opportunity to pick up his first-ever win over Nadal. Although the 31-year-old is a perfect 4-0 in the head-to-head series, he needed final sets to hold off Zverev at the 2016 Indian Wells Masters and at the 2017 Australian Open. Unsurprisingly, clay has proven to be a much different story. Nadal clobbered the youngster 6-1, 6-1 last year in Monte-Carlo and 6-1, 6-4, 6-4 earlier this season in a Davis Cup quarterfinal between Spain and Germany.
Still, the 16-time Grand Slam champion is not expecting a walk in the park–not with the way Zverev is playing these days.
“It will be a tough one,” Nadal noted. “Sascha is playing great, winning a lot of matches in a row. Tomorrow I need to be ready to keep playing my best, and that’s what I’m going to try.”
That is exactly what the top seed has been doing in Rome as he tries to make amends for his stunning Madrid loss to Thiem that ended a 50-set winning streak on clay. Nadal also dropped a set to Fabio Fognini on Friday, but he rolled over Damir Dzumhur and Denis Shapovalov and did well to pass a stern test from Djokovic 7-6(4), 6-3 in the semifinals.
Although Zverev also got off the court in straight sets, he once again finished much later than Nadal after requiring two hours and one minute to defeat Cilic. The second seed, who took a brief medical timeout for a shoulder issue on Saturday, also survived tough ones against Edmund and Goffin. All of this recent tennis is bound to catch up with Zverev–especially with the toughest physical test in tennis (facing Nadal on a clay court) awaiting him.
Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 8 games or fewer
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who ya got?
Rafa in 2 of course 6-4 6-2
Even if Zverev were 100% fresh, I just don’t see him testing this level of Rafa on clay… I feel like ever since Zverev failed to capitalize on a 2 sets to 1 lead over Rafa at the 2017 AO, he has melted at the mere sight of Rafa… This will likely continue tomorrow. I’ll guess 6-4, 6-3.
yep. or something like 5 and 2.
Kevin, how could Sasha capitalise on a two sets to one lead? The slams are BO5, so even if you’re two sets to one lead, there’s still the possibility of losing the next two sets to lose the match and that’s precisely what happened.
It doesn’t mean that when you’re two sets to one ahead, you’re sure to win the match! We’re talking about the big four as opponent, when Youzhny was two sets to one up against Fed at USO last year, did people think that Fed would sure lose to Youzhny?
Nadal losing eight games or fewer
Uh oh Zverev may be on track for yet another slam disappointment. He’s playing too damn well at the masters he won’t have anything left in the tank 😂
He’ll want to take off a full week to rest, thats for sure.
Surely, the physicality of Zverev’s matches has to catch up with him.
Nadal 2:0 but hoping for a miracle upset.
It’s true and I don’t think it’s funny, Benny 😀
Rafa in 2 losing less than 8 games.
What Sasha is doing now is not unlike what Thiem had done in the last few years. Thiem also played lots of tennis esp on clay (and he’s still able to reach SF at FO) and then he faded away after that.
I’m not sure whether Sasha can sustain it physically to last a full season (and goes deep at the slams), we’re five months into the season and he’s the one playing the most matches so far.
Yep, I was thinking about the same comparison to Theim. I might throw Pouille into that group as well. But it’s not too late for Sascha to make adjustments. But you’d think his mom and team would be advising him for the best. Or maybe he’s not listening and going to do what he wants. Too bad Kyrgios wasn’t more focused and ambitious about his tennis career.
Odds opened at 1.19 and have eased to 1.24-25 with some major bookmakers. Thats very interesting. I wouldve expected a flod of money coming for Nadal at that price. He has to be a certainty to win this, all things considered.
Rafa in 2. He knows how to play Zverev: use slice
Amazing resilience from Zverev , but sadly will lose in 2 tomorrow.
Rafa back to world number 1 after Rome
Put $10K down for an easy $2.5K collect. if you guys are so confident.
i’m sure those that have that bankroll are putting a couple down but for him to win 2-0.
Everyone is picking Nadal, not without reason. But Zverev has probably played as well as Rafa in this tournament. Rafa is not at the level he was in MC, and he is having problems with his serve. Zverev already has the mentality of a champion, and he is become a master at masters tournaments. He desperately wants to beat Nadal on clay, and it’s only a matter of time before that happens. It’s not going to happen at RG this year, but I say it will tomorrow: Zverev in 3.
Joe, you always say the same thing, time and again. We’ll see….
No, Lucky, I don’t always say the same thing. I picked Nadal in two over Djokovic. Before that, I said I thought Fognini had a 25% chance of an upset IF he played well, which didn’t turn out to be that crazy. (You, meanwhile, gave up on your player and said he was going to lose after he dropped the first set). Prior to that, I said Shapo had the kind of game to give Nadal trouble, which he did a bit of. If he hadn’t been so inept at returning, he would have given him more trouble.
Prior to the tournament, I said that I expected Nadal to trip up somewhere along the line in Rome. So far he has proved me wrong.
Nope, I said if Rafa continued to play like set one, he would lose to Foggy,but Rafa upped his level in set two and three. I said before that match that Rafa needed to maintain a high level when facing Foggy, and Foggy was a tough opponent.
I was sure that Rafa would beat Djoko in two and he proved me right. Rafa will have too much for Sasha, he’ll beat Sasha in two, if his serve gives him problem again, then he may have to beat Sasha in three sets, that’s my take.
Sasha, after reaching the final in Rome, will become the no.1 in the race to London; incredible!
Well, yes and no. He’s certainly the best of the #NextGen. And I think he’s gotten a lot better on clay since he lost to Rafa at DC. But with so many of the best players still struggling/recovering from injury, Fed going down at IW and Miami and skipping the clay and Rafa being out for the American HC swing, *somebody* has to pick up all those points. It’s kind of been a LOT of “somebodies”. We’ve had a bunch of different Masters winners this year so AZ hasn’t been dominating but he’s been very consistent.
True that someone would’ve to take advantage of the situation other than Fedal do. The fact that Sasha at 21 being the one to take advantage instead of the other more experienced players really say something about how good and consistent he has become. He still has to prove that he can do better at the slams.
Sasha is at an age that Murray was in 2008 and Murray won two Masters in that year (beating Djoko in the final at Cincy and Fed in the SF before winning at Madrid indoors) and reached a slam final (at USO) for the first time. Djoko, another 21 yo in 2008, had won a slam (AO2008) reached another final (USO2007) won four Masters (Miami and Mibtreal 2007, IW2008, Rome 2008) and was world no.3. Both Djoko and Murray had to deal with Fedal at their prime.
We’ll see whether Sasha could have his breakthrough year at the slams this season; he’s the one among the young gen who shows the most promise and poised to be the best among his own generation.
I don’t think the outcome of this match is a foregone conclusion,like many are anticipating.
This court is way smaller than the one where they played in Davis Cup,so if Zverev is serving big like he’s been doing for a while and given Rafa’s far return position,he can blow him off the court and try to go for his shots. I think Zverev’s gonna appear very agressive（somewhere close to the first set against Goffin in the first set of the QF). Rafa’s first serve percentage will also be a key point,yesterday he barely won the first set with a 50% of first serves,which is very low for his standard. I’m curious to see how Zverev’s backhand will appear in this match,if he’s firing from that corner,we can have a match. If somehow Zverev’s gonna try to outrally Rafa instead of being agressive,then it’s game,set and match for Rafa easily.
Vamos Rafa!
Zverez can win a set providing there’s no issues with him physically.
I think he could be a bit like Fed in that department, resilient to physical breakdown.
If you look at his results and remove emotion from your thinking, he’s a chance. Cilic, Goffin, Edmund were very strong form lines. He also didn’t drop a set en route to winning Madrid beating Thiem (who beat Nadal) in the process.
Zverez is a much improved player since their previous matches and has learned how to win regardless of how well he plays, which comes with experience.
Nadal in 3
Both Goffin and Cilic had the advantage but failed to capitalise; that showed Sasha’s resilience but at the same time, his opponents’ ineptitude at crucial moments.
Cilic had a few SP chances in the first set TB and a good first serve or an ace would’ve won him the set, and he was leading in the second set, he lost both!
Zeverev has gotten better and better over time. He has the true champion killer mentality, never gives up on a match and has an impressive ability to save match points at the 11th hour. He’s also matured physically and is much beefier these days which has helped his stamina. He still needs to keep control of his temper and to tone down the verbal abuse directed at the chair umpire over contentious line calls. Yesterday he was ticked off by Lyani for continuing to argue with him.
I hope we get an exciting final today with Rafa as the victor but unless AZ is on his knees after the late finish last night I think it could possibly take 3 sets.
Rafa in 3 although I’m hoping for 2.
ed,
You pretty much summed it up the way I see it. Sascha has only gotten better this year. At 21, I don’t know that you get tired. He has matured and has the ability to raise his level of play in a match. He’s also serving extremely well now.
I think this could be a tough match. Rafa will need to serve better than he did in the semifinal. Zverev is hungry right now. But Rafa is Rafa on clay.
I also wanted to add that I agree with you about the temper tantrums with Sascha. I have liked him and seen his potential for a while now. But I read that he cursed out a chair umpire in vulgar fashion and I did not like how he went after Llayani last night. Llayani was right about the call, but Sascha went to the superviser and screamed about him going this in another match. He was a brat. I dislike the diva behavior abs he needs to get it under control. Otherwise I am going to lose respect for him.
Keep your mind sharp and focused, stay confident, be strong and show off your warrior spirit, Rafa!
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DdpBZeBV0AA67Ca.jpg
Like I thought, a flood of money has come in for Nadal at 1.24-25 and price is back down to circa 1.18, a similar price against Djokovic.
A things considered, if Nadal lost it would be the biggest upset of the year even with how well Zverez is playing.
Vamos Rafa!
I don’t like this start from Rafa.
Raffa has come out flat and not serving well. Sascha pounced right away.