Who will win the French Open? That question is not exactly packed with suspense. Who is Rafael Nadal’s biggest threat? Now that question–even though it less important–is far more interesting.
Dominic Thiem upset Nadal in Madrid. Novak Djokovic looked something like the Djokovic of old on Saturday at the Internazionali BNL d’Italia. Big hitters like Marin Cilic, John Isner, and–when healthy–Juan Martin Del Potro can, at times, take the racket out of Nadal’s hands. And there is Alexander Zverev, who may be the answer to the aforementioned question.
Zverev, the recent champion in Munich and Madrid, improved to 17-2 on clay this spring by booking his spot alongside Nadal in Sunday’s Rome final. Success at Masters 1000 events is nothing new for the 21-year-old German, who not only triumphed last week in Madrid but also lifted 2017 trophies at this same Rome tournament and in Montreal. He has maintained momentum this week by beating Matteo Berrettini, Kyle Edmund, David Goffin, and Marin Cilic, surrendering only one set to Goffin in the process.
Zverev’s reward is a fifth opportunity to pick up his first-ever win over Nadal. Although the 31-year-old is a perfect 4-0 in the head-to-head series, he needed final sets to hold off Zverev at the 2016 Indian Wells Masters and at the 2017 Australian Open. Unsurprisingly, clay has proven to be a much different story. Nadal clobbered the youngster 6-1, 6-1 last year in Monte-Carlo and 6-1, 6-4, 6-4 earlier this season in a Davis Cup quarterfinal between Spain and Germany.
Still, the 16-time Grand Slam champion is not expecting a walk in the park–not with the way Zverev is playing these days.
“It will be a tough one,” Nadal noted. “Sascha is playing great, winning a lot of matches in a row. Tomorrow I need to be ready to keep playing my best, and that’s what I’m going to try.”
That is exactly what the top seed has been doing in Rome as he tries to make amends for his stunning Madrid loss to Thiem that ended a 50-set winning streak on clay. Nadal also dropped a set to Fabio Fognini on Friday, but he rolled over Damir Dzumhur and Denis Shapovalov and did well to pass a stern test from Djokovic 7-6(4), 6-3 in the semifinals.
Although Zverev also got off the court in straight sets, he once again finished much later than Nadal after requiring two hours and one minute to defeat Cilic. The second seed, who took a brief medical timeout for a shoulder issue on Saturday, also survived tough ones against Edmund and Goffin. All of this recent tennis is bound to catch up with Zverev–especially with the toughest physical test in tennis (facing Nadal on a clay court) awaiting him.
Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 8 games or fewer
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Lucky, I wasn’t being sarcastic: I was saying that the reason Rafa lost set 2 wasn’t because he failed to account for the changing conditions. It was because Zverev played a lot better than he did.
Nor did I fail to realize that Nadal’s opponents were tougher in Rome. Rather, I *disagree* that they were; that’s why I said that Dimitrov and Niskikori were formidable, but Nadal still walloped them. The main reason Rafa’s matches were closer in Rome than in MC, imo, is that his level has dropped in the last month.
Does that mean that I think he is playing poorly? Of course not. He has just tailed off a bit, and the field has more chance against him now than they did then; that’s all.
It’s both – ie it’s Rafa not making changes in time and at the same time Zverev upped his level after breaking Rafa’s serve to go up 2-0. Also, the conditions in set two favoured Zverev’s game as he’s serving as big as possible and hitting as hard as possible.
So you don’t think Djoko was tougher opponent than Goffin or Dimi?? Or Sasha tougher than Goffin and Dimi?? Goffin lost to Sasha at Rome for your info, and Dimi lost to Kei who then lost to Djoko.
Yes, those were the results in Rome. But Kei was playing well in MC (and easily could have beaten Novak in that Rome match). I thought Goffin was playing well in both tournaments, too.
My main impression from MC was that it was more about Nadal’s level than his opponents, and that’s why the matches were so lopsided. I just didn’t have that feeling in Rome (and of course not in Madrid). Yes, he was good enough to win against some tough opponents in Rome. No one is disputing that he is the best clay player right now. I just think that he is not playing as well as he was, and his serve in particular is not firing like it was earlier on.
TBH, Rafa’s serve wasn’t firing at MC either, that’s the impression he gave me, it’s just that his opponents then weren’t able to capitalise. Also, Rafa was physically fresher back then.
I don’t agree that Kei was playing better at MC than at Rome. He was struggling through his matches at MC. He lost to Djoko in straight sets at Madrid, but after an almost 3 hour match to beat Dimi, he was still able to push Djoko to the limit in the QF at Rome, that showed how much better he was at Rome. The Kei at MC was able to beat Djoko at Rome? Fat hope! Beating Djoko at MC maybe. Djoko was playing at a high level at Rome, a tournament he loved and where he had so much successes.
If not, how then could Rafa up his level after the rain delay? It’s obvious Rafa was more aggressive after the rain delay and Sasha had no answer.
Joe, there’re two players out there; Rafa explained the situations very clearly, it’s not only about Sasha’s level of play but also Rafa’s. Rafa’s level in set one > Sasha’s; his level in set two Sasha’s hence he won the match in the end.
I meant, ‘his level in set two than Sasha’s hence he won the match in the end.’
Something wrong with my typing, I’ll try again:
Sasha’s level in set two > Rafa’s; and Rafa’s level
after the rain delay > Sasha’s hence Rafa won the match in the end.
I have been so busy… just dropped by to say congrats to Rafa 😭😭😭 and to his…🤣🤣🤣
A little late but all is good right?
Take care, don’t forget I love you 😉.
Nny!…Here’s a couple of article for u!
http://www.tennisworldusa.org/tennis/news/Rafael_Nadal/55266/rafael-nadal-is-the-most-educated-player-says-rome-open-stringer/
https://www.express.co.uk/sport/tennis/964044/Rafael-Nadal-Roger-Federer-fishing-French-Open-tennis-news
lol re the fishing comment. Rafa uses fishing to relax, but if he misses the tennis competition he just might get serious about his fishing…and I would not bet against him becoming World No. 1.
MA,
Thanks for those! Rafa saying he will be number one fisher? Priceless! I would not bet against him! For now I just want to enjoy him while he is still playing! I have watched my recording of the last pasty of the third set after the rain delay in the Rome final, over and over!
Ramara…I think after Rafa retires,we maybe will see him constantly with his fishing rod @ golf club!…But,i certainly will miss him holding his precious racket that’s 4 sure!
Nny!…Can u hear the baby’s voice calling Rafa’s name again in the 3rd sets?
MA,
I have to watch my recording again. I will let you know.
Nny!…This too!
https://www.express.co.uk/sport/tennis/963998/Rafael-Nadal-Roger-Federer-record-Grand-Slam-Ken-Rosewall
MA,
I found Ken Rosewall’s comments very interesting. He ought to know if anyone does. Maybe Rafa will have to skip parts of the hard court season, especially since it is so hard on his body.
😀
Yeah Nny!….That’s what we Rafans make a noise about!…I think he should skip Asian swing altogether…Just participate in Basel & Paris…But,with Rafa i’m not sure about anything Nny!…Just a while ago he said if he’s healthy,he will not skip any tournament..unlike Roger…And Rafa is Rafa…He’ll do anything he wants usually….
When players thank their team after a win I imagine casual fans of tennis are usually unaware this is not just polite lip service. Their role is crucial to the success of players. Jez Green (Andy Murray’s former fitness coach) is the man responsible for the awesome stamina Sascha has developed which allowed him to play at the level we saw in spite of his late finish the night before and truncated recovery time. It reminded me of the 2009 AO final when Rafa faced a well rested Federer after playing a hideously tough 5-set SF against an on-fire Verdasco until the early hours of morning and yet went on to win against all the odds.
Sascha’s lack of good results in the slams may soon become a thing of the past. Few players are going to relish the prospect of either Rafa or AZ in the early rounds.
I’ve a strange feeling that Sasha actually likes the heavier conditions (rainy weather or playing at night) as that allows him to serve and hit hard without the ball flying over the lines as the balls are heavier with the moisture. I remember Sod vs Fed at FO2010 QF, after the rain delay, Sod was hitting without missing and beat Fed, not unlike the heavy conditions during this Rome final set 2 and 3.
In set one of the final when the weather was fine, Sasha couldn’t have the luxury of hitting without missing and Rafa was able to return almost all of his serves! I think at RG in BO5, players will have their chances vs Sasha if the weather is fine and Sasha couldn’t hit without missing; players like Goffin or Edmund or Cilic for examples, who lost narrowly in TBs to Sasha, would have more chances against him when more sets have to be played.
Sasha to me is still inexperienced in BO5 matches, esp when there may be unforeseen twists and turns during matches.
Sasha’s done well in DC matches, hasn’t he? Barring his last match vs Rafa — and there’s no shame in losing in straights to Rafa on clay in Spain. He may find the additional support in DC helpful. But everyone’s got to do it for the first time. After that, I’m told, it gets easier.
DC only two matches max; at a slam you need to play seven to win the title. At DC you may meet only one top ten player, sometimes there’s no top ten player; at a slam you’ve to meet a top ten player sooner or later.
IMO its as much to do with Nadals topspin not being as effective, which makes him less confident and his opponent, more so .
Sasha isn’t good at B05 yet but at his age, not unusual.
I watched Sasha vs Djoko Rome 2017 final; the weather was fine and Sasha tend to overhit at times too. I think a big hitter like him would make more errors while going for his shots, so I actually think that heavier conditions suit him even better.
Sasha uses his serve and big groundstrokes to overpower his opponents, not unlike Delpo or Sod; but, his movement is good, better than those two and he’s young now and full of energy. He’s getting better and better, to me he’ll be something like a bigger version of Djoko, good from both wings and good on any surface.
He would also not hit as many winners in the slower conditions. It’s Rafas topspin that saved him from making errors while hitting hard,unlike most of his opponents.
Big Al. I’m talking about Sasha not Rafa.
If you’re talking about Rafa, then you got it wrong. Rafa likes sunny conditions when the ball is lighter hence his topspin has better effect on the ball, making the ball bounces higher thus more difficult for his opponent to handle, like in set one in the final.
Rafa doesn’t like slow conditions, it’s a misconception that Rafa likes slower courts. On slower courts he has to grind, I doubt he likes grinding when he has a choice not to. Rafa likes medium quick courts and higher bounces surfaces. Too quick and low bouncing courts are not to his liking either.
Sasha is a big hitter and that’s why he tends to have some mishittings or overhittings when he goes for his shots. The heavier conditions will let him hit without much missing as explained earlier. His big serve will help him in quicker conditions hence it’s difficult to break his serve, as shown in Madrid when the conditions was quicker there.
Sasha will be hard to beat as he matures and becomes more experienced, when he can add more precision to his already powerful groundstrokes. If he can improve his ROS further, he’ll become the dominant player like. Djoko, in time to come.
My first sentence was about Sasha .His errors may be less on the slower stuff,but fewer winners also.
Agree the faster clay would help the big server,but you said he might have trouble keeping the ball in than when it’s damp ?Don’t see why.
As I said earlier,Rafa depends a lot on topspin and the ball exploding off the court
Fed beat Rafa after Rafa had won MC, Barcelona and Rome and winning Hamburg was too much to ask for! Note that Rafa beat Fed at Hamburg in the following year, after Rafa lost early at Rome. Rafa had not won all four warm up clay court events before the FO, during all his career.
I was talking about Sasha’s groundstrokes, not the Serve! The groundstroke was affected by the weather conditions.
Big Al, in lighter conditions the ball will fly quickly and it’ll be harder to control the ball unless you’re Rafa who puts in unbelievable amount of topspin. With heavier conditions the ball wont fly so quickly and so for big hitters it’s easier to control the ball. Refer to Sod/Fed match at FO2010 QF and note what Fed said after the match about Sod’s hitting in heavier conditions. Refer to FO2012 Final, set three and four and this Rome final set two and see which player benefitted from the heavier conditions, it’s Djoko and Sasha who hit as hard as possible. Sasha hit more winners in set two than in set one, the stats are there.
Sasha’s big serve helps him in quicker conditions because it’s difficult to return big serves in quick conditions; no contradiction.
Of course if Sasha can master the precision of his shots, then whether it’s quick or slow conditions it won’t matter much to him.
I must say a big hitter is very difficult to defend against in any condition, not everyone can be like the big four, who have great ROS and with varieties to neutralize the big hitters; still they have to fight tooth and nail too at times to beat the big hitting players – eg Fed vs Delpo; Rafa vs Delpo and now Sasha.
I was talking specifically about the serve in damp or dry conditions. You said earlier that Zverev would make fewer errors when it was damp,but I think it would be negligible compared to the winners he hits when it’s fast.Its winners unforced errors ratio that matters.
I’ve no disagreement about the groundstrokes,Fed beat Nadal in slow damp conditions in Hamburg .
Nny!….An interesting article for u to read….
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-tennis-frenchopen-nadal/underarm-serve-when-all-else-fails-against-nadal-why-not-idUKKCN1IP04H
Yesterday a bunch of articles appeared about Robin Soderling gave an advice how to topple Rafa at FO…I chose not to give u coz imo that article was not interesting at all…I mean,everytime FO come..there’s going to be an article like this..talking the same thing about how awesome/famous Robin was bcoz he made that upsets in the history…
Sure Robin was awesome THAT day…but we also know that Rafa had a problem at that time right?So,if Robin is awesome,why can’t he emulate his perfomance at FO 2010?I say Robin won over Rafa at FO 2009 is just 1 time thing…A lucky one…
MA,
I agree with you. If Sod was so great, then how come he couldn’t do it again! A healthy Rafa beat him easily in the RG 2010 final. We know that although sod played great, Rafa was struggling with knee tendinitis that caused him to withdraw from Wimbledon.
They are trying desperately to find something to stop Rafa at RG! Good luck with that!
😀
Fed devotees’ anti-Rafa propaganda machine is running at full speed, as usual. Robin Sod has been remembered (almost?) on a daily basis on (different) websites since 2009.
Good draw for Rafa.. Thiem, Zverev, Dimitrov, Djokovic all in other half
Cilic /Delpotro in semi
He opens against Dologopolov
Anderson QF
Jack Sock 4th round
Thiem- Zverev QF..spicy 🙂
Cilic- Delpo QF – spicy
Projected men’s quarters
[1] Nadal vs [6] Anderson
[3] Cilic vs [5] Del Potro
[8] Goffin vs [4] Dimitrov
[7] Thiem vs [2] A. Zverev
Ricky..if someone has pulled out like Chung or DElpo pulls out..can they mess up draw now or a qualifier/lucky loser takes their position?
Interesting draw for Rafa:
All those dangerous guys Rafa met and beat in the warm ups – Thiem, Goffin, Dimi, Kei, Djoko – are in the other half of the draw.
The four top ten guys that Rafa had not met in the warm up events are all in his half – Anderson, Cilic, Delpo and Isner.
Shapo, Diego and Foggy, all of whom Rafa had beaten in the warm ups are in his half with Shapo in his quarter.
A good draw for Rafa I have to say.