The two-Masters lead-up to the U.S. Open begins in Montreal with the Rogers Cup. Roger Federer is out, but Chris Skelton previews a still-loaded field that features Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, and Rafael Nadal.
The Rogers Cup marks the first significant tournament of the U.S. Open Series and of the second half. Together with Cincinnati, Canada will offer the best guide for summer hard-court form ahead of the season’s final Grand Slam. Most of the men’s title contenders in New York have traveled to Montreal, with one notable exception, while Toronto will feature most of the women’s title contenders in New York, also with one notable exception. Read about the Montreal men’s draw here, and return in a day or so for an analysis of the Toronto women’s draw.
First quarter: World No. 1 Novak Djokovic returns to the Rogers Cup as the two-time defending champion, but he will face sterner competition than he did in 2012. Last year, most of Djokovic’s rivals skipped this event the week after the Olympics, but this year almost all except Roger Federer have entered the field. The top seed will want to dispatch his early challenges efficiently to conserve energy for those later challenges. Djokovic’s draw should help him meet that goal, for he never has lost a set (outside exhibitions) to potential second-round opponents Bernard Tomic and Florian Mayer. Slumping compatriot Janko Tipsarevic will lack the confidence to stop the superior Serb, while seventh seed Richard Gasquet remains winless against Djokovic on hard courts. They could meet in a quarterfinal rematch of last year’s final, if Gasquet avoids upset threats such as Lukas Rosol. On the fast court of Montreal, Rosol may fancy his chances in a first-round contrast of styles against Andreas Seppi. Near those two, Kei Nishikori looks to rebound from disappointment last week in Washington.
Semifinalist: Djokovic
Second quarter: At both Masters 1000 hard-court tournaments this year, the draws have projected a Swiss quarterfinal opponent for Rafael Nadal. But, whereas Indian Wells pitted him against Federer, Montreal has assigned him Stanislas Wawrinka. Like Djokovic, Nadal should fancy his chances of a smooth pre-semifinal progress. Two Canadian wildcards and no fewer than four qualifiers comprise six of the fourteen men in the second quarter. And Nadal has not lost a set in his ten meetings with Wawrinka, although the Swiss No. 2 has held set points against him at the Rogers Cup before. A similar statistic defines Nadal’s encounters with Tommy Haas, as likely as Wawrinka to reach a quarterfinal against the Spaniard. The ageless 35-year-old has lost all 12 of his sets against Nadal, who has broken down his one-handed backhand and punished his net approaches with passing shots. If healthy, Jerzy Janowicz might pose the greatest test for Rafa. Scheduled to meet him in the round of 16, the 6’8” Wimbledon semifinalist can rain down massive serves on this fast court if his arm has healed.
Semifinalist: Nadal
Third quarter: Another Spaniard returns to action for the first time since Wimbledon. While Nadal nursed his knees for much of July, David Ferrer focused on healing his injured ankle. The world No. 3 may need matches to brush off the rust and regain his rhythm on hard courts, where he has not played since finishing runner-up in Miami. A true test of Ferrer’s stamina could await in the round of 16 against fellow grinder Gilles Simon. Not at his best for much of 2013, Simon often produces more convincing tennis in the second half than the first. But Ferrer may meet his match against fifth seed Tomas Berdych despite his strong record against him. The Czech eyes an ideal slate of opponents in the early rounds, including a 10th meeting with Kevin Anderson since the start of the 2012. Undefeated in the previous nine, Berdych can anticipate renewing his bitter rivalry with Nicolas Almagro. On the other hand, top-ranked American John Isner could upset Almagro if he extends his momentum from Atlanta and Washington. No man is safe from Isner when his serve strikes its targets on a fast court.
Semifinalist: Berdych
Fourth quarter: Between the U.S. Open champions who bookend this section stands some notable young talent. Canadian fans will look forward to watching home hope Milos Raonic try to regain his form from earlier this season after a summer lull. For all of his explosiveness, Raonic may find his playing style too dimensional against the more balanced Juan Martin Del Potro, who rebounded from a leg injury in Washington. Australian Open quarterfinalist Jeremy Chardy also would turn back time several months if he could. His opening meeting with Raonic intrigues less than two first-round matches elsewhere in this section, though. Blazing through a 13-match winning streak this spring, Ernests Gulbis squares off against resurgent fast-court specialist Feliciano Lopez. In his first event after the cathartic Wimbledon breakthrough, Andy Murray can expect plenty of resistance from Grigor Dimitrov. When they met in Miami, Dimitrov served for the first set before his inexperience undid him. Should Murray and Del Potro survive the young guns to reach the quarterfinals, Del Potro will look to repeat his victory when they met at Indian Wells.
Semifinalist: Del Potro
Final: Djokovic vs. Del Potro
Champion: Djokovic
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It’s a shame that hawkeye is not working in the JJ match. So many close calls.
JJ’s playing average here, watch how his game will suddenly rise should he see Rafa across the net tomorrow…………..
one set away from JJ Rafa
back in town so will have some third-round match previews up tonight, including Rafa vs. either JJ or Dancer
Ricky (August 7, 2013 at 8:39 pm),
After playing two sets, it’s still one set away from JJ Rafa (or Dancevic Rafa?).
now one game away
JJ is into double figures on double faults, no?
hmmm So here we go.. rafa vs JJ its gonna b a great match.. rafa in 3 is my pick.. 🙂
I was so not looking forward to this match. Rafa is still working off the rust. We know that JJ will come out and play the match of his life. He would love to get a win off Rafa. I just hope that Rafa can use his smarts to handle JJ. How JJ played before means nothing. These guys always bring their best. I can see it being something like Rafa’s match with Gulbis at I/W.
@sana, yes of course I know from your name that you are a girl 🙂 okay so initially from India and now in England..good to know 🙂
I missed rafa’s match, watched till 4-2 only..will catch the remainder of the match…I am nervous about this JJ match but I am trying to see the brighter side too…if rafa can pass the JJ test, he’l be much more ready for djokovic…the gulbis test in IW proved to be advantageous for rafa…he was rusty against harrison in IW, had a walkover, and then staved off a red hot gulbis.. I am hoping he can beat JJ here
preview/pick up tonight.
I just watched highlights..GUYS, rafa played a good match ! he was trying to be really aggressive..i really liked the ROS ! yes he did miss some easy ones but I cant recall the last time rafa returned all serves so close to the baseline…he was returning 1st serves with some pace too..
He sliced often and the backhand was not tested but I liked what I saw…yes lavine did not push him but rafa was keen to punish short balls and THATS what I am looking for ! I say rafa will beat JJ !!!
how many minutes of highlights? They only show the best parts of the match unless they are like 10 minutes long.
they were 8 minutes long..ricky, yes highlights just show the best parts so that is why I am watching the repeat telecast too at the moment…. however, I liked what I saw in the highlights, what I was looking for was rafa taking the initiative to be aggressive, not standing deep behind the baseline and waiting for his opponents to make his mistakes and playing too conservatively…sometimes, rafa keeps winning but I am not satisfied because of the way he wins those matches..I am certainly liking how he approached this match ! shows his intent
You need to watch the whole match. Rafa was rusty and had a lot of UE’s with his forehand. I thought he played better in the second set. That was when he just took control and Levine couldn’t handle his forehand and kind of gave up. Levine was double faulting all over the place and that didn’t help him. This guy was never going to challenge Rafa, so I don’t read too much into it. I just don’t like Rafa bumping up against a guy like Jerzy so soon. At least he did get a workout in the match, tested his shots and got a feel for the court.
I was thinking back to I/W and how Rafa only had one match and then a walkover before he faced Gulbis. I sure hope we don’t see a match like that tomorrow! But it could happen. Jerzy may be having shoulder problems, but something happens when these guys see Rafa across the net. A tough match with Jerzy could help Rafa to get into good form, like the one with Gulbis. His draw has really opened up now. After Jerzy it’s Paire or Matesovic. No Wawa or Haas. He would have a ticket to a semifinal matchup with Djoker,
Rafa will pass the JJ test but nole..thats a different challenge ! 65:35 to nole but if rafa starts playing like IW (yes yes the conditions are diff but still) ..i would give rafa a decent chance to beat nole…plenty of tennis to be played though before we get the semis
Vamos Rafaa!
rafa vs JJ first match on central court ! followed by murray-gulbis…woah, rafa muzz would need to fend off some huge hitting tomorrow …go rafaaaaaa
nole has such an easy draw..he gets istomin…
That will be the undoing of Nole, his easy draw……..
Nadal-JJ preview and pick – https://tenngrand.com/2013/08/08/rogers-cup-r3-preview-and-pick-nadal-vs-janowicz/
Happy Birthday Roger Federer!
Long live the King! 🙂
Happy Birthday to Fed indeed! I see he is already in Cincy, practicing. I hope he does well there. The game is better with him in the mix.
On a related note, poor Ferru, he loses to Alex Bogomolov in his first match at Montreal and the whole tennis world has a collective shrug. Can you imagine the furore if it had been Rafa, Nole or Muzza who had been dumped out? I mean, people are still talking about Dodig dumping Rafa out in Toronto 2 YEARS AGO!
rewind to the wimby final, observe andy’s intensity right from game 1 and compare it to the intensity he has shown so far in this match.. stark contrast !
only 13% points played inside the baseline so far.. this is where I am always extremely proud of rafa, he has that inherent ability of keeping his intensity really high even in earlier matches of the tournaments
I was on a plane. How was the match?
you mean rafa’s match? andy’s match is still on.he got the break back !
rafa returned serve a lot in set 2..JJ served silly ,costly double faults ..good win from rafa ! won 33% points on JJ’s 1st serve.. gota improve his forehand though
Gulbis over Murray : 64 63
so gulbis wins in 2..andy was outplayed…he’l come back strong in cincy I am sure..he needs these sort of wake up calls..must be frustrating for duece and alex :/
rafa andy had to deal with these dangerous players so early on..novak got lucky by avoiding any tough matches early on.. anyway, looking forward to the other matches
Nadal out of doubles.
has he withdrawn ? Ah I was looking forward to the match as he up against aisam, my countryman 🙂 good rafa, have some rest
@vamosrafa
All too used to it m’dear….;) Perhaps he’s saving himself for the big one…;)