Rogers Cup preview and picks: Djokovic over Del Potro

The two-Masters lead-up to the U.S. Open begins in Montreal with the Rogers Cup. Roger Federer is out, but Chris Skelton previews a still-loaded field that features Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, and Rafael Nadal.

The Rogers Cup marks the first significant tournament of the U.S. Open Series and of the second half. Together with Cincinnati, Canada will offer the best guide for summer hard-court form ahead of the season’s final Grand Slam. Most of the men’s title contenders in New York have traveled to Montreal, with one notable exception, while Toronto will feature most of the women’s title contenders in New York, also with one notable exception. Read about the Montreal men’s draw here, and return in a day or so for an analysis of the Toronto women’s draw.

First quarter:  World No. 1 Novak Djokovic returns to the Rogers Cup as the two-time defending champion, but he will face sterner competition than he did in 2012. Last year, most of Djokovic’s rivals skipped this event the week after the Olympics, but this year almost all except Roger Federer have entered the field. The top seed will want to dispatch his early challenges efficiently to conserve energy for those later challenges. Djokovic’s draw should help him meet that goal, for he never has lost a set (outside exhibitions) to potential second-round opponents Bernard Tomic and Florian Mayer. Slumping compatriot Janko Tipsarevic will lack the confidence to stop the superior Serb, while seventh seed Richard Gasquet remains winless against Djokovic on hard courts. They could meet in a quarterfinal rematch of last year’s final, if Gasquet avoids upset threats such as Lukas Rosol. On the fast court of Montreal, Rosol may fancy his chances in a first-round contrast of styles against Andreas Seppi. Near those two, Kei Nishikori looks to rebound from disappointment last week in Washington.

Semifinalist: Djokovic

Second quarter:  At both Masters 1000 hard-court tournaments this year, the draws have projected a Swiss quarterfinal opponent for Rafael Nadal. But, whereas Indian Wells pitted him against Federer, Montreal has assigned him Stanislas Wawrinka. Like Djokovic, Nadal should fancy his chances of a smooth pre-semifinal progress. Two Canadian wildcards and no fewer than four qualifiers comprise six of the fourteen men in the second quarter. And Nadal has not lost a set in his ten meetings with Wawrinka, although the Swiss No. 2 has held set points against him at the Rogers Cup before. A similar statistic defines Nadal’s encounters with Tommy Haas, as likely as Wawrinka to reach a quarterfinal against the Spaniard. The ageless 35-year-old has lost all 12 of his sets against Nadal, who has broken down his one-handed backhand and punished his net approaches with passing shots. If healthy, Jerzy Janowicz might pose the greatest test for Rafa. Scheduled to meet him in the round of 16, the 6’8” Wimbledon semifinalist can rain down massive serves on this fast court if his arm has healed. 

Semifinalist: Nadal

Third quarter:  Another Spaniard returns to action for the first time since Wimbledon. While Nadal nursed his knees for much of July, David Ferrer focused on healing his injured ankle. The world No. 3 may need matches to brush off the rust and regain his rhythm on hard courts, where he has not played since finishing runner-up in Miami. A true test of Ferrer’s stamina could await in the round of 16 against fellow grinder Gilles Simon. Not at his best for much of 2013, Simon often produces more convincing tennis in the second half than the first. But Ferrer may meet his match against fifth seed Tomas Berdych despite his strong record against him. The Czech eyes an ideal slate of opponents in the early rounds, including a 10th meeting with Kevin Anderson since the start of the 2012. Undefeated in the previous nine, Berdych can anticipate renewing his bitter rivalry with Nicolas Almagro. On the other hand, top-ranked American John Isner could upset Almagro if he extends his momentum from Atlanta and Washington. No man is safe from Isner when his serve strikes its targets on a fast court.

Semifinalist: Berdych

Fourth quarter:  Between the U.S. Open champions who bookend this section stands some notable young talent. Canadian fans will look forward to watching home hope Milos Raonic try to regain his form from earlier this season after a summer lull. For all of his explosiveness, Raonic may find his playing style too dimensional against the more balanced Juan Martin Del Potro, who rebounded from a leg injury in Washington. Australian Open quarterfinalist Jeremy Chardy also would turn back time several months if he could. His opening meeting with Raonic intrigues less than two first-round matches elsewhere in this section, though. Blazing through a 13-match winning streak this spring, Ernests Gulbis squares off against resurgent fast-court specialist Feliciano Lopez. In his first event after the cathartic Wimbledon breakthrough, Andy Murray can expect plenty of resistance from Grigor Dimitrov. When they met in Miami, Dimitrov served for the first set before his inexperience undid him. Should Murray and Del Potro survive the young guns to reach the quarterfinals, Del Potro will look to repeat his victory when they met at Indian Wells.

Semifinalist: Del Potro

Final: Djokovic vs. Del Potro

Champion:  Djokovic

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