The two-Masters lead-up to the U.S. Open begins in Montreal with the Rogers Cup. Roger Federer is out, but Chris Skelton previews a still-loaded field that features Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, and Rafael Nadal.
The Rogers Cup marks the first significant tournament of the U.S. Open Series and of the second half. Together with Cincinnati, Canada will offer the best guide for summer hard-court form ahead of the season’s final Grand Slam. Most of the men’s title contenders in New York have traveled to Montreal, with one notable exception, while Toronto will feature most of the women’s title contenders in New York, also with one notable exception. Read about the Montreal men’s draw here, and return in a day or so for an analysis of the Toronto women’s draw.
First quarter: World No. 1 Novak Djokovic returns to the Rogers Cup as the two-time defending champion, but he will face sterner competition than he did in 2012. Last year, most of Djokovic’s rivals skipped this event the week after the Olympics, but this year almost all except Roger Federer have entered the field. The top seed will want to dispatch his early challenges efficiently to conserve energy for those later challenges. Djokovic’s draw should help him meet that goal, for he never has lost a set (outside exhibitions) to potential second-round opponents Bernard Tomic and Florian Mayer. Slumping compatriot Janko Tipsarevic will lack the confidence to stop the superior Serb, while seventh seed Richard Gasquet remains winless against Djokovic on hard courts. They could meet in a quarterfinal rematch of last year’s final, if Gasquet avoids upset threats such as Lukas Rosol. On the fast court of Montreal, Rosol may fancy his chances in a first-round contrast of styles against Andreas Seppi. Near those two, Kei Nishikori looks to rebound from disappointment last week in Washington.
Semifinalist: Djokovic
Second quarter: At both Masters 1000 hard-court tournaments this year, the draws have projected a Swiss quarterfinal opponent for Rafael Nadal. But, whereas Indian Wells pitted him against Federer, Montreal has assigned him Stanislas Wawrinka. Like Djokovic, Nadal should fancy his chances of a smooth pre-semifinal progress. Two Canadian wildcards and no fewer than four qualifiers comprise six of the fourteen men in the second quarter. And Nadal has not lost a set in his ten meetings with Wawrinka, although the Swiss No. 2 has held set points against him at the Rogers Cup before. A similar statistic defines Nadal’s encounters with Tommy Haas, as likely as Wawrinka to reach a quarterfinal against the Spaniard. The ageless 35-year-old has lost all 12 of his sets against Nadal, who has broken down his one-handed backhand and punished his net approaches with passing shots. If healthy, Jerzy Janowicz might pose the greatest test for Rafa. Scheduled to meet him in the round of 16, the 6’8” Wimbledon semifinalist can rain down massive serves on this fast court if his arm has healed.
Semifinalist: Nadal
Third quarter: Another Spaniard returns to action for the first time since Wimbledon. While Nadal nursed his knees for much of July, David Ferrer focused on healing his injured ankle. The world No. 3 may need matches to brush off the rust and regain his rhythm on hard courts, where he has not played since finishing runner-up in Miami. A true test of Ferrer’s stamina could await in the round of 16 against fellow grinder Gilles Simon. Not at his best for much of 2013, Simon often produces more convincing tennis in the second half than the first. But Ferrer may meet his match against fifth seed Tomas Berdych despite his strong record against him. The Czech eyes an ideal slate of opponents in the early rounds, including a 10th meeting with Kevin Anderson since the start of the 2012. Undefeated in the previous nine, Berdych can anticipate renewing his bitter rivalry with Nicolas Almagro. On the other hand, top-ranked American John Isner could upset Almagro if he extends his momentum from Atlanta and Washington. No man is safe from Isner when his serve strikes its targets on a fast court.
Semifinalist: Berdych
Fourth quarter: Between the U.S. Open champions who bookend this section stands some notable young talent. Canadian fans will look forward to watching home hope Milos Raonic try to regain his form from earlier this season after a summer lull. For all of his explosiveness, Raonic may find his playing style too dimensional against the more balanced Juan Martin Del Potro, who rebounded from a leg injury in Washington. Australian Open quarterfinalist Jeremy Chardy also would turn back time several months if he could. His opening meeting with Raonic intrigues less than two first-round matches elsewhere in this section, though. Blazing through a 13-match winning streak this spring, Ernests Gulbis squares off against resurgent fast-court specialist Feliciano Lopez. In his first event after the cathartic Wimbledon breakthrough, Andy Murray can expect plenty of resistance from Grigor Dimitrov. When they met in Miami, Dimitrov served for the first set before his inexperience undid him. Should Murray and Del Potro survive the young guns to reach the quarterfinals, Del Potro will look to repeat his victory when they met at Indian Wells.
Semifinalist: Del Potro
Final: Djokovic vs. Del Potro
Champion: Djokovic
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who ya got?
I dont think Nalray fans will be too happy with this predictions 😉
I’m really disappointed with Fed pulling out of it. It just hampers my interest in the tourney considerably.
But since Fed is out, I will go on with my full support to Delpo.
Too early to make any predictions though.
Hi abhirf, good to see you here! Hope the rest of the TT gang finds its way here…..
abhirf,
Nice to see you here. I can see why you are disappointed that Fed didn’t play here. He didn’t play last year, so this was a chance for him to pick up some much needed rankings points. However, he knows his body. If the back is bothering him, then he needs to rest up so he can be ready to defend his title at Cincy.
Heart says Andy.
Head still thinking…..:)
Agree with above though. Let’s see some play.
Oh my heart and head are in the right place alright…………..with Rafa! Agree with the picks up to semis and that’s where Rafa will upset the apple cart by seeing off Novak in straight sets, yes, you heard right, straight sets. I know it offends a lot of people’s sensibilities to even think of Rafa beating Novak on outdoor HC, but mark my words, Rafa is going to set the record straight. You can take that to the bank……….
Oh forgot to say……Rafa is winning the tourny!
ritb,
I am so glad that you are here! You are something else! It takes some guts to go out on a limb and predict Rafa beating Djoker in the semis to go on and win the tournament! Love it! I never feel comfortable making predictions before having seen any of the top guys play. I know that Delpo is in good form right now. He could be tough here. But I am not ready to write off Murray. He will be coming off the biggest victory of his career with his win at Wimbledon. That has to instill a lot of confidence.
I have to see Rafa before I will make my definitive prediction. I know that sight unseen, vamosrafa has predicted that Rafa will make it to the semis and then lose to Djoker. I initially thought that was a reasonable prediction. I can’t say more until I get a look at Rafa.
Bring on the tennis!
My take on Muzza is he is still floating on the Wimby win cloud and this is the first Tourny post the win so Montreal is where he will come down to earth! I expect him to be a danger at Flushing Meadows. However, Muzza is not going to give Delpo the quarterfinal win on a platter, and thusly I expect Delpo to be worn out by the time he faces Rafa in the final.
#IW2013Repeat
Lol RITB, no holding back here….But:
Is Rafa REALLY pumping?
And Nole REALLY slumping?
Am keeping my powder dry on this one, as I am for Mr M’s chancest
Deucy, the jury’s out on Rafa at this point until we see him in action, especially against Jerzy should both make the appointed meeting. By his own lofty standards, Nole’s been in a slump. The Madrid, Rome and RG meltdowns portend something, especially where he’s at mentally. The straight sets loss to Muzza at Wimby and Djokovic Senior’s outburst all beg a lot of questions re Nole. Maybe he resolved whatever was bothering him during the Summer but I am sceptical at this point.
Thanx @ritb and @nny. I was following this Tenngrand for quite a time, even before TT’s farewell via Ricky’s twitter account.
Yeah, really disappointed for FED. Was a great chance for him to gather some points and matchplay with the new racquet. But I respect his decision. He knows better than any one else what’s good for him and what’s not..
As far as some predicting Rafa over Nole, I wouldnt rule that out. If Rafa can play anywhere near the level he showed at IW, he definitely will have a great chance to win this one too.
I don’t understand how Djoker is tipped to beat Delpo in the final whilst Delpo would look to repeating his victory against Murray when both Djoker and Murray lost to him at IW this year. The reasoning seems inconsistent and illogical to me.
Murray has had some lucky breaks recently. His win in Miami was in a depleted field and he barely got past Ferrer. If his luck still holds, then he stands a good chance otherwise he could struggle in his Qtr. If Rafa meets a fit JJ, Rafa will have to negotiate his way past JJ’s unorthodox style, so I see JJ as the only slight obstacle for Rafa in the top half even more so than Djoker.
Montreal is usually a better indicator of form than Cincy when players are often reluctant to leave their guts on court. But it’s by no means conclusive – particularly in the case of the top 4 who’ve not played since Wimby which could make them vulnerable to on-fire players in earlier rounds.
I have to admit to a certain trepidation at the prospect of Rafa versus Jerzy whose style of play will make it difficult for Rafa to find his rhythm. If he negotiates that hurdle safely I quite fancy his chances for taking the title.
Gotta admit, am so looking forward to a Rafa/Jerzy match. However, am convinced Rafa will pass with flying colors………
RITBs right. Nole was definitely not mentally or emotionally 100% during the Spring.
I am so looking forward to seeing Rafa in action. His loss at Wimbly was devastating, not because of the loss but because it made me fear that this was going to be a repeat of what happened after a shocking early loss at Wimbly last year. I see Rafa in action, I see him playing well, I can relax and look forward to seeing him being competitive at USO. Vamos Rafa!
I’m with you there, holdserve. I honestly do not want to “suffer” another early Rafa loss so soon after Wimby.There are so many people writing Rafa off this part of the season, I feel I’m due a little gloating, just a little……………..
We Rafa fans are all due a little gloating! I hope, RITB, your prediction of Montreal win for Rafa comes true!!!
Of course the real prize is USO but Nole and Muzza are formidable and so is Delpo for whom USO is his favorite surface. Rafa is formidable too and I am confident if his knee allows him to be “competitive” (as he puts it), he is the favorite, i.e. the most likely to win ( this is for Ricky’s benefit who for some reason thinks favorite is always bookies favorite and nobody else has a right to designate a favorite!) . When he thinks he can win, he will!
I agree with the writer’s picks…they seem to be the most reasonable ones but I give delpo a really good chance of winning the event…
For rafa, I can only hope he plays good aggressive tennis to overcome JJ and wawa.. beating djo might be asking too much from rafa given he is playing his second hard court event of the year and a tournament after seven weeks…rafa has been practising quite a lot though…go champ ! IF you can bear nole here..you’l be my favorite for new york
I think Rafa is ready to spring a surprise on Djoker. He won his first HC tournament after being out 7 months, remember, a Masters 1000 to boot? If he gets past Jerzy I believe Rafa snags the whole thang…………..
I agree with RITB that andy might not be ‘in the zone’ quite yet…in the past he has had this habbit of resting on his laurels for the next 1-2 events but andy is a much more mature player now so if he is dialed in..watch out everyone !
nadline, you think JJ is a bigger threat to rafa than djoker????????
I absolutely do. To me Djoker is not much of a threat to Rafa anymore, Rafa was mentally challenged against Djoker at the onset of the gluten free train ride but Rafa’s got over that now. I don’t think Djoker really has any weapons that would truly trouble a fit and mentally stable Rafa.
On the other hand JJ has got his serve which is a threat to anyone and in Rafa’s case would upset his rythm. I would also much rather Rafa faced Djoker than Gulbis.
Muzza is hugely talented! People have known that for years but his record at slams till last year showed him to be mentally fragile. There were even theories about it. The Dunblane school massacre made him feel guilty about surviving and by failing he was kind of seeking exoneration!
Anyway, if mentally he is fine now, he has a good chance of winning USO and taking the year-end no.1.
Rafa or rather his knee is the unknown factor here. He is mentally really strong but his knee is his Achilles’ heel. He is also prodigiously talented although fans of other stars pretend to be blind and classify him as a grinder who only runs and runs.
If JJ doesn’t learn to be disciplined he is not going to be ever at the top unless there is a repeat of the 2000-2002 era. Talent without discipline can only take you so far.
I have enjoyed reading everyone’s comments about Montreal. I think Djoker over Delpo is a reasonable, but I don’t know if it’s going to come out that way. I am still not writing off Murray. When Delpo beat him at I/W he was not playing well. He took five weeks off after the AO and came back not in great form. Delpo was really on fire at I/W. He seems to be in great form now. But I think winning Wimbledon was a huge boost for Murray. So I am not going to write him off, especially without having watched anyone play.
I want to see the top guys play and then I will feel more comfortable making a prediction. Rafa is an unknown quantity right now. We have to see if he can shake off the rust here.
The only reason I see JJ as a threat to Rafa is because it’s so early in this tournament. Rafa will only have one match under his belt before a possible meetup with JJ. However, there is no way that I think JJ is a bigger threat that Djoker. Even though Djoker hasn’t played consistently well this year, he still won the AO, got to the semis of RG and the semis of Wimbledon and is still #1. We will see if he can get into better form in this hard court season. You can’t write him off either.
Djoker over Murray I think. Delpo may be tired or just want to conserve energy for Natti and USO.
I’m interested you have spelt out that results immediately prior to Slams are not always what they seem to be. I thought we were all supposed to believe all the players played to win all the time 😉