Rogers Cup final preview and pick: Nadal vs. Raonic

Milos Raonic will try to deliver a surprising Montreal title to the home Canadian crowd on Sunday. Standing in his way, though, is Rafael Nadal–undefeated on hard courts this season.

(4) Rafael Nadal vs. (11) Milos Raonic

Nadal and Raonic will be going head-to-head for the fourth time in their careers when they battle for the Rogers Cup title on Sunday afternoon. All three of their previous meetings have gone Nadal’s way and he has refused to yield even a single set to Raonic. In fact, the Canadian has never even forced a tiebreaker. Nadal prevailed twice on hard courts (both in Tokyo) in 2010 and 2011 before cruising 6-4, 6-0 earlier this year on the clay courts of Barcelona.

Taking seven months off throughout the conclusion of 2012 and start of 2013 has proven to be a good decision for Nadal and his knees. Case in point: he has not lost a single match on hard courts–traditionally his worst surface–this season. The fourth-ranked Spaniard has only played two such tournaments, but it is an impressive feat nonetheless. Nadal triumphed in Indian Wells and so far in Montreal he has dismissed Jesse Levine, Jerzy Janowicz, Marinko Matosevic, and Novak Djokovic. He had been the only man without the loss of a set prior to outlasting Djokovic in a third-set tiebreaker on Saturday night. The fourth seed is now 47-3 for the year, which already features seven titles.

Nadal edited
Raonic has made a memorable run of his own, ending the dream week of fellow Canadian Vasek Pospisil in the process. Prior to edging Pospisil in a third-set tiebreaker on Saturday afternoon, Raonic took out Jeremy Chardy, Mikhail Youzhny, Juan Martin Del Potro, and Ernests Gulbis. The run has been anything but smooth for the world No. 13, but he will take anything he can get at this point. After all, Raonic had been 2-5 in his last seven matches prior to his arrival in Montreal.

Raonic
Only home-court advantage bodes well for the underdog’s chances in this one. His play has not been particularly impressive relative to what a berth in a Masters final would indicate and his past struggles against Nadal are glaring. As if that is not enough, Nadal is playing the same kind of aggressive hard-court tennis that carried him to the 2010 U.S. Open title. The pressure won’t be on Raonic, but it will still be a tough situation in his first Masters title match having never previously been to even a semifinal. Unless Raonic delivers one of his best-ever serving days, he will be hard-pressed to make it competitive.

Pick: Nadal 6-4, 6-4

[polldaddy poll=7313304]

7 Comments on Rogers Cup final preview and pick: Nadal vs. Raonic

  1. Sanju,

    You must have read my mind! I was just thinking about you! So great to see you here! Yes, there are many of us from TT here talking away. Without the trolls!

    I think Rafa should do what he wants to do. I said on vb that he is a man on a mission. If he wants the #1 ranking, then I say go for it! Now he has his sights set on the USO.

    Rafa needs to play! If he wasn’t up to it, he wouldn’t go to Cincy. But if he is going to win the USO, then he needs to make sure he’s match ready. Five matches won’t do it.

    Let him play! He’s never won Cincy and not been past the quarterfinals, I believe. He just had a great win over Djoker and won Montreal. He is feeling confident, playing some of the best aggressive tennis we have seen from him. So let him go!

  2. If Rafa wins Cincy, lots of people are going to make him favorite for USO!
    If he wins Cincy and USO, he is practically assured of no. 1 ranking.
    But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. One match at a time. But I cannot get over how he played against Djoko. I couldn’t sleep on Saturday night, I was so excited after watching the match!!! Today too I am restless! I am full of hope for Cincy! I want him to win it too!
    But I am scared too! I felt like this after USO 2010 and had great hopes for 2011! But it was my worst year, worse even than 2009! Not in terms of his performance but how he played against Djoko! It was so painful, I felt real pain in my heart! Especially when he lost at Rome and Wimbly!!!!! It was terrible!!! I still remember the shock, the pain, the feeling of helplessness!
    By the time he lost at USO 2011 and AO 2012, I was numb and fatalistic! The clay season 2012 gave me some hope but my hopes were raised only to have them cruelly smashed again. I don’t even want to remember Wimbly 2012 or what happened after that.
    Now he has come back but I don’t want to hope for too much. One match at a time please, I keep telling myself! Rafa, be healthy. Rafa, do well!

  3. Rafa takes back the #1 ranking if he wins Cincy and USOpen and Novak does not go beyond the semis. With the lopsided Cincy draw, I expect Novak to make the finals. But you know what, that is not what is on my mind right now. I am just enjoying Rafa’s re-found bravura! What a joy to watch! The way he dismantled Raonic…………poor Raonic lost all confidence and could not even get a first serve in! Rafa totally destroyed him mentally.

    The locker room is trembling now…………..

  4. It was great seeing Rafa storm through and win his 2nd hardcourt title of the year but for me it did not match the awe and excitement of Indian Wells. Nobody could possibly have predicted he would scythe his way through a strong field to take the title in his first hard court tournament in nearly a year and particularly after that long layoff.

    However, I agree with you Holdserve, the best thing of all is to see Rafa enjoying his tennis and playing at full power. After the set back at Wimbledon I just treasure each win as it happens.

  5. I wrote my comment in a wrong (SF) thread. Sorry!.I repeat it here.

    I am very happy that Rafa won his 8th title this year and his 25th Masters title! I am glad that he didn’t have to play a long final, I expected a tougher match.
    Rafa said after the final:
    – the surface in Montreal is faster than that in Indian Wells; the surface in IW is the most suitable hard court surface for him;
    – he recovered well after the match vs Djokovic;
    – he practiced serve return a lot in Montreal and his return worked well;
    – it’s difficult to reach the world No. 1 spot this year, but he is going to try.
    http://rafaelnadalfans.com/2013/08/12/an-interview-with-rafael-nadal-august-11-2013/#more-9023

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.