Rogers Cup final preview and pick: Nadal vs. Raonic

Milos Raonic will try to deliver a surprising Montreal title to the home Canadian crowd on Sunday. Standing in his way, though, is Rafael Nadal–undefeated on hard courts this season.

(4) Rafael Nadal vs. (11) Milos Raonic

Nadal and Raonic will be going head-to-head for the fourth time in their careers when they battle for the Rogers Cup title on Sunday afternoon. All three of their previous meetings have gone Nadal’s way and he has refused to yield even a single set to Raonic. In fact, the Canadian has never even forced a tiebreaker. Nadal prevailed twice on hard courts (both in Tokyo) in 2010 and 2011 before cruising 6-4, 6-0 earlier this year on the clay courts of Barcelona.

Taking seven months off throughout the conclusion of 2012 and start of 2013 has proven to be a good decision for Nadal and his knees. Case in point: he has not lost a single match on hard courts–traditionally his worst surface–this season. The fourth-ranked Spaniard has only played two such tournaments, but it is an impressive feat nonetheless. Nadal triumphed in Indian Wells and so far in Montreal he has dismissed Jesse Levine, Jerzy Janowicz, Marinko Matosevic, and Novak Djokovic. He had been the only man without the loss of a set prior to outlasting Djokovic in a third-set tiebreaker on Saturday night. The fourth seed is now 47-3 for the year, which already features seven titles.

Nadal edited
Raonic has made a memorable run of his own, ending the dream week of fellow Canadian Vasek Pospisil in the process. Prior to edging Pospisil in a third-set tiebreaker on Saturday afternoon, Raonic took out Jeremy Chardy, Mikhail Youzhny, Juan Martin Del Potro, and Ernests Gulbis. The run has been anything but smooth for the world No. 13, but he will take anything he can get at this point. After all, Raonic had been 2-5 in his last seven matches prior to his arrival in Montreal.

Raonic
Only home-court advantage bodes well for the underdog’s chances in this one. His play has not been particularly impressive relative to what a berth in a Masters final would indicate and his past struggles against Nadal are glaring. As if that is not enough, Nadal is playing the same kind of aggressive hard-court tennis that carried him to the 2010 U.S. Open title. The pressure won’t be on Raonic, but it will still be a tough situation in his first Masters title match having never previously been to even a semifinal. Unless Raonic delivers one of his best-ever serving days, he will be hard-pressed to make it competitive.

Pick: Nadal 6-4, 6-4

[polldaddy poll=7313304]

24 Comments on Rogers Cup final preview and pick: Nadal vs. Raonic

  1. Oh Ricky, pl always pick against Rafa! Then when you are proved wrong, Rafa’s win is so much sweeter than just a routine win!!!

  2. But I suppose in the instant case try as you might you could not oblige Rafa fans and you were forced to predict Rafa would win. What a pity!

  3. raonic was barely able to deliver 2nd serves against pospisil in the tie break..he’l wilt against rafa…and his coach is rafa’s enemy !

    rafa to win in 2 sets for 25th masters 1000 and 4th of the year… 6-4 6-3

  4. I am getting nervous reading these predictions. I am always cautious when it comes to the finals of a tournament. My only concern is that Rafa will not have much time to recover from his latest battle with Djoker. Will he have enough to get the win?

    Raonic was lucky to get this far. He should not even be in the final. Gulbis should have beaten him for sure. He was lucky to get past Pospisil. He hasn’t been playing well at all. Is there any possibility that he will be inspired being in front of his home crowd? Or will the occasion overwhelm him? I don’t like taking anything for granted.

    People are getting carried away. Just a few days ago some here were thinking Rafa couldn’t beat Djoker. But I knew he had a shot. I liked the way Rafa was playing and thought Djoker didn’t look that great. Gasquet didn’t bother to show up and really play. Djoker should have lost to Istomin.

    I will predict Rafa in two sets. I am not going to predict the exact score.

  5. “In 2010, I was like 200 in the world,” said Raonic. “I held my own to a certain extent. He was a much, much better player than I was.

    “I think 2011 when I played him at the same tournament, the situation was the same. It was my first tournament, other than Davis Cup, back from hip surgery. He was far beyond me in terms of level.

    “I think it’s a different situation this time around.”

    So he thinks he can compete hard with rafa in a final here? I see

  6. I have never been impressed with his game…there are many young boys better than him.. rafa’s ball striking is even better than yesterday…yes he is not under pressure but still he aint making any errors

  7. Ricky…..lol!!!

    By now Rafa is probably thinking………….seriously man, seriously?!!! Why dont you people just give me my cheque and send me on my way?!!! I have another match in Cincy tomorrow!!!

    Im a stinker, aint I?!!!

  8. @monalysa, hahaha good one…. I am glad raonic is falling back to earth on his face..his journey to the final was so overhyped…delpo was injured …pospisil was fatigued… dont think he has played any special tennis at all..just has not come up against a fine returner… and his comments before the match sounded as if he has reached new heights and now he can finally challenge nadal djokovic … LOL…I hope he is learning a bitter lesson and so is is bitter coach

  9. Rafa is a genius…his serving pattern and also the pattern of his groundies are tailored according to different opponents…. usually Mats Wilander is full od crap but I 100% agree with him when said that rafa is the best tactician among the big 4…the ultimate problem solver is rafa…

  10. I cant believe Raonic actually admitted about his toilet break…………….i never!!!

    Dont get me wrong, Im happy to see these young guns step us to the challenges of playing a top player! I am happy that Raonic steps up into the top ten for the first time but they need to be careful how they move up, not by any means necessary!!!!

    All these years that Rafa beat up on Lubi, Lubi still has not been able to get over it but instead he tries to see if he can exact revenge vicariously through Raonic……..hahaha!!!! Good luck!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.