If Roger Federer pulls out of the French Open prior to late Friday morning, a significant wrench would be thrown into the draw ceremony. It would mean, of course, that Rafael Nadal would snag the No. 4 seed instead if the fifth spot and guarantee a meeting with Novak Djokovic no earlier than the semifinals. If Federer stays in, Djokovic and Nadal could potentially face each other in the Roland Garros quarterfinals for a second straight season.
The 34-year-old Swiss practiced in Paris on Wednesday, without confirming his status in either the affirmative or the negative for 2016’s second Grand Slam. As long as Federer remains in the mix, this will be one of the most highly-anticipated draw ceremonies in recent memory.
Here’s a look at five nerve-wracking storylines that will have journalists on the edge of their seats, fans praying for their favorites, players in denial about their hopes and fears, and Twitter teetering on the brink of explosion:
1) Where will Nadal land? Until we hear otherwise, it must be assumed that Federer will be a part of the proceedings. If that is the cace, Nadal will be a fifth seed for the fifth time this season. He has landed in Stan Wawrinka’s quarter on three occasions, Federer’s once (Federer ended up withdrawing from Madrid), and finally in Djokovic’s at the Rome Masters. While the nightmare scenario for Nadal is obvious, a No. 5 seed does not spell automatic doomsday. The nine-time Roland Garros champion could, for example, land in the third quarter of the bracket with either an injured Federer or a slumping Wawrinka as his 1-4 seed. That would set up a potential semifinal showdown against Andy Murray before a possible date with Djokovic in the title match.
2) Which 1-4 seeds will get Thiem and Monfils? There is some good news for Nadal if he stays at No. 5 instead of moving up to the fourth seed. Seeds 1-4 match up with 13-16 in the fourth round, while seeds 5-8 are on a collision course with 9-12. This is one of the rare occasions on which two players in the 13-16 pod are far more dangerous than anyone in 9-12 group. In fact, everyone seeded between 13 and 16 is in fine form. David Goffin was a semifinalist in both Indian Wells and Miami before recently double-bageling Tomas Berdych in Madrid. Roberto Bautista Agut is one spot behind Goffin at No. 10 in the race to London. But neither the Belgian nor the Spaniard has a ceiling as high as Dominic Thiem or Gael Monfils. Thiem owns the second most wins on tour this season and clay is unquestionably his best surface. From basically out of nowhere, Monfils has been motivated and nonsense-free throughout 2016. Either Thiem or Monfils would be a scary proposition for one of the top four players in the world in the last 16 at Roland Garros.
3) The case of Nick Kyrgios and one unlucky 9-16 seed. Has any player stood out more from the rest of his seeding group than Nick Kyrgios at this year’s French Open? Maybe not–given that Djokovic automatically goes into every bracket at the top and therefore is not technically part of any group. Consider this 17-24 pod: John Isner, Gilles Simon, Nick Kyrgios, Kevin Anderson, Benoit Paire, Bernard Tomic, Feliciano Lopez, and Viktor Troicki. Isner is never fun to play, but he has been hurt and out of form. Simon is a similarly frustrating opponent albeit for the complete opposite reason, but he has underwhelmed in 2016 and he does not love clay. Anderson has missed almost the entire year. Paire is Paire. Tomic is hopeless right now and despises the red stuff. Feliciano Lopez is maybe the only Spaniard on tour whose worst surface is clay. Troicki is slumping and–yep–dislikes the dirt. And then there’s Kyrgios. The 21-year-old Australian is 21-7 this season has won multiple matches in six of seven tournaments. He made a run to the Miami semifinals and the Madrid quarters. Although Kyrgios disappointed a bit at the Australian Open, he generally thrives on tennis’ biggest stages. Seven men in the 9-16 range are going to receive favorable third-round draws. As for the black sheep of that group who lands near Kyrgios in the draw, well…good luck!
4) Where will Wawrinka and Nishikori land? These situations are not quite as intriguing as Nadal’s status as the No. 5 seed, but both are important. Even with Wawrinka in borderline disastrous form ever since he triumphed in Dubai three months ago, he is still a far bigger threat than Federer at the moment. Neither Djokovic nor Murray will admit it, but they do not want to see Wawrinka in their half of the draw. ‘An injured Federer as a possible semifinal opponent? Yes, please.’ After all, Wawrinka is the defending Roland Garros champion. Who knows if a return to the scene of one of the two best moments in his career will rekindle the spark in his game? As for Kei Nishikori, he and Nadal are the clear-cut cream of the 5-8 crop. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, as usual, is a question mark due to physical problems. Berdych, the newly-anointed bagel boy, appears to be on his way out of the top 10 and just parted ways with coach Dani Vallverdu. The 1-4 seeds will be silently hoping to see either Tsonga or Berdych–not Nadal or Nishikori–fall in their quarter of the bracket.
5) The unseeded floaters. Alexander Zverev. Borna Coric. Andrey Kuznetsov. Fernando Verdasco. Leonardo Mayer. Grigor Dimitrov (hold the laughter). Thomaz Bellucci (hey, he just bageled Djokovic). Jiri Vesely (he just beat Djokovic). Those are some of the unseeded entrants whom a top player–or anyone, for that matter–may have to go up against in the first round. Heck, even running into Zverev in the second round would constitute a terrible draw at this point. With such an impressive contingent of floaters, upsets that aren’t really upsets could be plentiful during week one at Roland Garros.
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Rafa’s quarter:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ci5JPzWXAAAF0vh.jpg
rafa even has foggy tucked in there as well…
zverev, thiem and foggy all there…
If nole meet nadal in the quarter finals that’s where his quest, for his first RG title ends. Andy currently is in form, more so than any other player , BUT BEATING NADAL AT RG in this form he is currently in, is a very very tall ask.
nole can’t play rafa in the quarters!
May I remind you that Novak just beat Nadal in straight sets, tough though the match was. There is no guarantee that he will lose to Nadal, unlike so many seem to think.
What “so many” lol. I see just one.
Horrible draw for Nadal
He gets Thiem, Djokovic, Foginini everybody
yeah am feeling depressed. could have to play foggy 3rd round then thiem fourth…
that’s very tough if he hasn’t got it together..
really isn’t fair. murray by contrast has had ludicrously easy draws for ages now.
Thiem, Fognini on Chartrier vs Rafa. So?
Much ado about nothing.
They will give him much needed rhythm. I’m glad he avoided so many servebots.
The worst thing about Rafa’s draw is next week’s weather forecast and his lurking mental problema.
it’s precisely his mental problema i am worried about. it’s because of that i wanted easy opponents early on.
Nah, ironically Rafa stresses more when he is heavy favourite during the early rounds IMO.
Let him get in shape.
@ hawks 1:18PM,
exactly!
When and where can one get a printable version of the complete draw. Nothing showing up yet on the ATP site.
This is why I said yesterday let Rafa be No 5. Avoiding Thiem is good..but now he gets Thiem and Foggy both.
3rd and 4th round can be super tricky.
Nole is sure shot to semi..no landmines at all.
yeah. i said earlier that he would have been better at #5. repeat of 2013.
Now may the force be with him and he win as in 2013 🙂
well said sanju!!! but so tough!! still foggy could go out early…thiem is unproven at gs level…may not be as bad as it looks…
It isn’t. Could have been much worse.
Amy,
Keep in mind that they have to get there to meet Rafa. Many times we stress about a potential opponent and it doesn’t happen.
Rafa could have had Novak in the quarterfinals. At least he won’t have to face him until the semis.
He played Fabio in 3rd round in 2013 too..
he played Nishikori in 4th round in 2013 who can be as tough as Thiem
He played Stan in QF in 2013 who can be Tsonga equivalent
Djoko in semi again like 2013
and to top lot of discussion around no 4, no 5 in 2013 too and so was it this year and he got No 4 seed both times.
sanju, what was his record in those matches?
just goes to show that the seeding formula is garbage. in 2013 rafa should have had the #2 seeding.
Thiem already played too much and is not going to beat Rafa in five sets…Fog can be a test if he meets Rafa but I doubt he can beat Rafa…and he won’t!
if Rafa gets to the semis he will be ready for Novak…
yeah but it would still be better if rafa was on the other side of the draw. best thing for the tourney is a rafole final.
Thiem or Fog aren’t beating Nadal over five sets on Chartrier.
Hope this helps.
probably be on lenglen.
in any case rafa is his own worst enemy early on as you know. that’s why i wanted easy opponents.
Shit. Forgot about Lenglen.
same to you. i am not the only person unhappy or saying it’s a tough draw so are sanju and ricky.
i’ve been talking about his mental problema since early last year so i don’t have to apologise for worrying that it is going to come to the fore early on again.
Sorry?
Did I say something offensive amy?
My sincerest apologies if I offended you.
I just said that I forgot that he could be more susceptible on Lenglen and that I like the challenges in his quarter. Something like a vaccine. Exposed to weaker versions of Nole that should get him ready.
I think he needs that.
Again, sorry if I said something wrong to you.
It was not my intent at all.
I think all easy opponents in his qtr could actually backfire on him (as it might just do for Nole).
But I respect everyone’s opinions on tennis even if I don’t necessarily agree.
ok sorry hawks. i thought you were having a go at me.
i’ve been ill yet again and was up nearly all night so am not myself.
if i hadn’t been up nearly all night i wouldn’t have even been commenting here and it wasn’t a great idea as the draw looked horrible from my sleepless perspective.
namaste!
namaste to you too amy 🙂
I can see where he has tricky opponents and can see where you’re coming from.
I just think given the respective draws in each corner, these earlier challenges might just be what the (armchair) doctor ordered to get him battle hardened for a potential Rafole SF.
I would never intentionally have a go at you Amy.
🙂
i blame fed!! obvious fix to stitch up rafa!
I blame that woman who did the draw
did you hear gachasson?! introduced her and then changed the introduction to ‘la JOLIE marie….’
parody of cartoon frenchman
LOL!
I don’t think losing in the SF or final is any different to the top guys. The title is all they are interested in so if Rafa played Nole in the final they would be just as disappointed losing as they would had they played each other in the final.
I knew Rafa would land in the same half as Nole…if Rafa was No5 he would have gotten Nole in the quarters no question about it…this way at least Rafa gets to play good opponents, which is good for his game and if he is ready to beat those opponents he will be ready to beat Novak…
TBH I expected Rafa vs Novak semis…I am only grateful that it’s not quarters this time…
Tsonga by no means is equivalent to Stan on clay anyway…
Tsonga can be dangerous. Remember he had 2 match points against Novak in 2012 and even reached semis in 2013.
RG will always give Rafa worst draws.
I was also very sure it would be Rafa : Djokovic semis
tsonga’s game was always somewhat troublesome for Novak, not so much for Rafa…definitely not on clay…
also hard to play tsonga with the french crowd going nuts…he took out fed afterall…
yeah, but Tsonga has been dealing with injuries lately…doubt he is in form sufficient to beat Rafa…
Tsonga beat Fed when Fed had bad back.
Tsonga can’t beat Rafa BO5 on Chartrier.
sorry but i am very depressed by this draw. i wanted rafa to get some easy opponents early on and i didn’t want him near foggy and thiem. this is a very very tough draw and luck has as much to do with winning slams as ability.
very terrible draw
agreed. there is no sugar coating it.
foggy has to play granollers to get to play rafa. very good chance granollers will win. that would be good.
no. Fog is motivated when he sees Nadal’s name near his in the draw.
yes i know ricky. i am just clutching at straws to stave off depression…
normally granollers would have a great shot..
Granollers takes out Foggy and Zverev takes out Thiem..my wish 🙂
And yeah Berdy /Ferrer takes out Novak 🙂
not going to happen… 🙂
Sanju: That’s taking wishful thinking to a new level. :=)
But lets not forget..After AO 16 draw, we were all happy Rafa got a good draw..and see what happened..out in 1st round..I even went all the way to Australia, landed on the day he was packed and could not see him despite going all the way.
So draws can work out in their own funny way too.
How come no one is commenting on what an easy draw Novak has till semi? Why just Murray
BTW where has Kyrgios landed?
Kyrgios is with Nishi
My thinking is much the same as Natashao. Tough early rounds are better for Rafa than a cakewalk.
Overall Rafa is in a good place mentally: which is more than can be said for Nole.
#Always look on the bright side – tee dum tee dum
That’s the spirit, my dear ed! I also agree with your take on Rafa vs Novak mental state!
Vamos! Bring it on!
Agree with nats and ed.
Not at all unhappy with Rafa’s draw.
It’s just the balance he needs.
Would have preferred Nole in the final but not a big deal.
The full draw:
http://www.rolandgarros.com/en_FR/scores/draws/ms/msdraw.pdf
Thanks Gussie. Actually it had just occurred to me RG would probably be the first to publish the draw.
Dashing out now but will study it more closely when I get back.
I add the draw procedure.
If Rafa had been the 5th seed, he would have landed on line 32 or 64 or 65 or 97 of the draw. Now he is on line 33.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ci5csA2WkAAFfSq.jpg
What are you all worried about. NADAL has done it many times before, 9 intact. My people this is a major, not a 1000 or a500 .just like in 2013, returning form a long injury time off.Many of you, were making a fuss, will he be as good as before, well, he came back even better, snagging 10 titles, including RG and the US OPEN, AND WAS UNBEATEN, ON HARD COURTS .This time, he is returning from a spate of bad form, but now, after seeing him win two titles and having those recent results, particularly that very very close match with Nole, however one sided the score line may suggest, all are episodes leading up to one story, a 10th RG title. So no matter the pathway, it is a 10th GRAND SLAM.
@ Patrick,
beautiful post!
Well said PK. Rafa’s miraculous 2013 comeback rarely gets mentioned these days. It was a more impressive achievement than anything Nole has done IMO.
I am glad big hitters are not in Rafa’s quarter. they are tricky and the win is decided within several points which is not the kind of pressure I would like to see for Rafa! The players he will most likely meet are the kind of players that will require Rafa to develop his game, to build on each point, and will allow him getting the right rhythm. That is exactly what he needs to get ready for Novak in the semis. Easy draw would do him no good. I am also glad Nick is far away from Rafa… 🙂
meant to say big serving machines, not big “new brand tennis” hitters… 🙂
Agreed.
Also, I was concerned he’d get 2-3 hard servers with no rhythm prior to getting Nole and being unprepared.
Rafa will be a finely tuned engine should he get Nole in the semis.
Correction Hawks 🙂
That should read ‘IF Nole gets to the SF’. It’s my view that is not a given in the light of where his game is at right now. And I’m not just saying that because he lost to Andy in Rome.
should = if, no?
That said, even in Nole’s current state of mind which is seriously surreal IMO, over BO5, can’t see an upset in his quarter.
I agree with ed. It is not a given to assume that Rafa will get to the semis. That’s why I take it one match at a time!
Groth is a serve volleyer and a big server so Rafa needs to brush up on his ROS and passing shots.
Vamos Rafa!