If Roger Federer pulls out of the French Open prior to late Friday morning, a significant wrench would be thrown into the draw ceremony. It would mean, of course, that Rafael Nadal would snag the No. 4 seed instead if the fifth spot and guarantee a meeting with Novak Djokovic no earlier than the semifinals. If Federer stays in, Djokovic and Nadal could potentially face each other in the Roland Garros quarterfinals for a second straight season.
The 34-year-old Swiss practiced in Paris on Wednesday, without confirming his status in either the affirmative or the negative for 2016’s second Grand Slam. As long as Federer remains in the mix, this will be one of the most highly-anticipated draw ceremonies in recent memory.
Here’s a look at five nerve-wracking storylines that will have journalists on the edge of their seats, fans praying for their favorites, players in denial about their hopes and fears, and Twitter teetering on the brink of explosion:
1) Where will Nadal land? Until we hear otherwise, it must be assumed that Federer will be a part of the proceedings. If that is the cace, Nadal will be a fifth seed for the fifth time this season. He has landed in Stan Wawrinka’s quarter on three occasions, Federer’s once (Federer ended up withdrawing from Madrid), and finally in Djokovic’s at the Rome Masters. While the nightmare scenario for Nadal is obvious, a No. 5 seed does not spell automatic doomsday. The nine-time Roland Garros champion could, for example, land in the third quarter of the bracket with either an injured Federer or a slumping Wawrinka as his 1-4 seed. That would set up a potential semifinal showdown against Andy Murray before a possible date with Djokovic in the title match.
2) Which 1-4 seeds will get Thiem and Monfils? There is some good news for Nadal if he stays at No. 5 instead of moving up to the fourth seed. Seeds 1-4 match up with 13-16 in the fourth round, while seeds 5-8 are on a collision course with 9-12. This is one of the rare occasions on which two players in the 13-16 pod are far more dangerous than anyone in 9-12 group. In fact, everyone seeded between 13 and 16 is in fine form. David Goffin was a semifinalist in both Indian Wells and Miami before recently double-bageling Tomas Berdych in Madrid. Roberto Bautista Agut is one spot behind Goffin at No. 10 in the race to London. But neither the Belgian nor the Spaniard has a ceiling as high as Dominic Thiem or Gael Monfils. Thiem owns the second most wins on tour this season and clay is unquestionably his best surface. From basically out of nowhere, Monfils has been motivated and nonsense-free throughout 2016. Either Thiem or Monfils would be a scary proposition for one of the top four players in the world in the last 16 at Roland Garros.
3) The case of Nick Kyrgios and one unlucky 9-16 seed. Has any player stood out more from the rest of his seeding group than Nick Kyrgios at this year’s French Open? Maybe not–given that Djokovic automatically goes into every bracket at the top and therefore is not technically part of any group. Consider this 17-24 pod: John Isner, Gilles Simon, Nick Kyrgios, Kevin Anderson, Benoit Paire, Bernard Tomic, Feliciano Lopez, and Viktor Troicki. Isner is never fun to play, but he has been hurt and out of form. Simon is a similarly frustrating opponent albeit for the complete opposite reason, but he has underwhelmed in 2016 and he does not love clay. Anderson has missed almost the entire year. Paire is Paire. Tomic is hopeless right now and despises the red stuff. Feliciano Lopez is maybe the only Spaniard on tour whose worst surface is clay. Troicki is slumping and–yep–dislikes the dirt. And then there’s Kyrgios. The 21-year-old Australian is 21-7 this season has won multiple matches in six of seven tournaments. He made a run to the Miami semifinals and the Madrid quarters. Although Kyrgios disappointed a bit at the Australian Open, he generally thrives on tennis’ biggest stages. Seven men in the 9-16 range are going to receive favorable third-round draws. As for the black sheep of that group who lands near Kyrgios in the draw, well…good luck!
4) Where will Wawrinka and Nishikori land? These situations are not quite as intriguing as Nadal’s status as the No. 5 seed, but both are important. Even with Wawrinka in borderline disastrous form ever since he triumphed in Dubai three months ago, he is still a far bigger threat than Federer at the moment. Neither Djokovic nor Murray will admit it, but they do not want to see Wawrinka in their half of the draw. ‘An injured Federer as a possible semifinal opponent? Yes, please.’ After all, Wawrinka is the defending Roland Garros champion. Who knows if a return to the scene of one of the two best moments in his career will rekindle the spark in his game? As for Kei Nishikori, he and Nadal are the clear-cut cream of the 5-8 crop. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, as usual, is a question mark due to physical problems. Berdych, the newly-anointed bagel boy, appears to be on his way out of the top 10 and just parted ways with coach Dani Vallverdu. The 1-4 seeds will be silently hoping to see either Tsonga or Berdych–not Nadal or Nishikori–fall in their quarter of the bracket.
5) The unseeded floaters. Alexander Zverev. Borna Coric. Andrey Kuznetsov. Fernando Verdasco. Leonardo Mayer. Grigor Dimitrov (hold the laughter). Thomaz Bellucci (hey, he just bageled Djokovic). Jiri Vesely (he just beat Djokovic). Those are some of the unseeded entrants whom a top player–or anyone, for that matter–may have to go up against in the first round. Heck, even running into Zverev in the second round would constitute a terrible draw at this point. With such an impressive contingent of floaters, upsets that aren’t really upsets could be plentiful during week one at Roland Garros.
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When did he end up in Kei’s quarter? Kei has been below him all season.
oh good catch. He was the 4 seed in Miami when he was with Nishikori. So this is the 5th time in 2016 that Nadal will be the 5th seed (if Federer doesn’t WD).
Ricky – Where will Kyrgios land sorry? Will he draw 1-4 in round 3 or 5-8?
Also this is exactly the reason I prefer Rafa to be 5. He can avoid Djokovic by luck and will definitely avoid Thiem.
Kyrgios can get anyone from 1-8 in round 4. He will get 9-17 in round 3.
KYRGIOS/MONFILS THIRD ROUND WOULD BE EPIC
Kyrgios and Thiem would also be awesome matchup.
I’d be there
Ok so Rafa cannot draw Thiem if he is no 5 and he can earliest draw Kyrgios in round 4?
Yep
Haha dimitrov isn’t even seeded. Hold the laughter? I can’t!! ?? funny thing is this is probably one of the first times in quite a while that he hasn’t been seeded at a slam which may cause him to have the least expectations or pressure he has had at a slam in a long time (not just cuz ranking of course but because well he’s not playing well) and with the right draw maybe he can make a run with an upset or two. On the other hand the draw could be ugly for him. One guy I have a good feeling about is Kuznetsov. For some reason I think he is gonna get a navigable draw kind of like Melbourne where his seeded second rounder was Chardy. Andrey is sneaky good this year and doesn’t deserve to get someone like Nole early imo. And if he gets a struggling top guy like Berdych or ferrer maybe I could definitely see an upset there. And zverev could make some noise here and score a big upset or patch of upsets as well. Like u said, he’s definitely a guy the top players will want to avoid drawing early. Hopefully his draw isn’t like the one he got in Melbourne this year lol.
Also I’m super excited to see how Nick does. I’m thinking he makes the second week. He’s in really good form and has seemed really focused. I definitely think he will build on last year’s third round performance and go further than that this year.
Great article Ricky. I can’t recall there ever being a Slam with quite so many variables. Your predictive skills will be tested to the limit 🙂
^^ I think that should be ‘prediction’ skills not ‘predictive’
Would love to know what Djokovic is thinking right now. After trying to win RG for nigh on 10 years and just when he was on the brink of achieving the feat of holding all four Slams simultaneously he finds himself having to negotiate a field littered with human land mines.
That he lost to Murray in Rome is not in itself particularly significant. What is concerning is his strange behaviour throughout the week which reached a crescendo on Sunday resulting in violent outbursts of temper and bitter exchanges with the chair umpire. Rome was not the first time either – it had happened several times since the AO but was not commented upon because still managed to save the day when he was on the brink of defeat.
He needs to recover his equilibrium in time for RG or he will be vulnerable to any number of on-fire players from day one.
Que sera, sera…whatever will be, will be…it’s the best to leave it to the destiny, ie, pure coincidence…the draw ceremony will be a climatic moment I see…I am going to follow it live…hope I don’t get a nervous breakdown…
I followed the draw ceremony live in 2009; to say it was far from straightforward is putting it mildly. Drawing the top 8 seeds was clear enough after that there was an avalanche of names woodshed in by computer, supposedly.
How can you follow it live??
Sometimes they provide a link on the official website but not always. You can google it and see if there is a link or maybe someone might give a link on one of the forums.
If you live in the UK it will be live from 10.30 am on Eurosport 1.
Louise (AT 7:30 AM)
You can watch it here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=anXHKaxbRB4
At the end of the day, I just think it would be unfortunate for either Rafa or Djoker to knock each other out in the QF. The rest of the draw, I think Rafa can negotiate OK although I would rather he avoided ace machines in general even though he has a great record against them.
+1
Even if Rafa doesn’t win a single match at RG, Stan will have to reach the SF to be seeded 4 at Wimbledon after applying the Wimbledon formula.
foggy won’t be seeded will he?? he could be dangerous in the early rounds…
Amy,
I don’t think Fog can do much in s best of five set match. He may have beaten Andy in DC, but I think that was a one-off. He’s s veteran player who’s got game, but I don’t think he is consistent enough to be any real threat.
It’s true that he beat Rafa at last year’s USO, but that was not the real Rafa. I am not worried about him. I am more worried about guys like Thiem and Kyrgios and any of the big serving guys.
Some great story lines. Really hope Fed can play….and watch out for Goffin!!!
I would say less so in slam five-setters than other tournaments. Although he did take out Murray straight sets in a Davis Cup match which I think was on clay.
Yeah fog played awesome that day
I’ll say that again:
Even if Rafa doesn’t win a single match at RG, Stan will have to reach the Final to be seeded 4 at Wimbledon after applying the Wimbledon formula.
After deducting their RG 2015 points, Rafa will have 5315 points and Stan will have 4110 points. After adding their Grass points according to the Wimbledon formula, assuming neither of them wins any points at RG, Rafa will have 5529 points and Stan will have 4740 points; Rafa will now have 789 points more than Stan. Stan can only earn 720 points if he makes the SF so he’ll have to make the final to overtake Rafa even if Rafa gets no points from RG.
ed yes i saw that match and he really thrashed murray on clay. i am very nervous about rafa in the early rounds and don’t want foggy or players similar to foggy anywhere near him. actually think that the early rounds are the biggest threat to him – the fact is that he hasn’t got past the early rounds in the last 3 slams and he has been very nervous in the opening rounds of rg before.(remember when he was behind in the second set tie break to brands of all people! nearly going down 2 sets to love!!) the brands example also shows the real element of unpredictability as no one saw that as a danger!
“If Roger Federer pulls out of the French Open prior to late Friday morning, a significant wrench would be thrown into the draw ceremony.”
Correction: The wrench is already there (as it was last year). It can only be removed if Rafa gets his rightful place in the Top 4 seeds.
RG should have a clay formula similar to Wimbledon given just two mandatory ATP Masters events on clay.
The RG draw will be live on Eurosport 1 tomorrow at 11.30 am.
^^^That’s Paris time.
ricky,
Good job with the different potential stories coming out of this RG. I think this one will be especially interesting. We have some of the young guns making some noise in the sport. Thiem, Krygios and Raonic. Also Zverev ha shown real promise.
I am wondering if a dark horse will get through. However, with Murray playing well and Rafa coming back strong, I think it’s going to be harder. The early rounds are always dangerous and this year we might just see an upset or two.
Lots to look forward to!
Fed has withdrawn from RG.
Nick Lester (TV Commentator): “Roger Federer withdraws from Roland Garros having failed to recover in time from a back injury.”
https://twitter.com/nicklester/status/733317743005605888
I knew Federer would be on Rafa’s side.
So that means that Rafa will get the #4 seed.
I hope that Fed recovers soon. He has to do what is best for him and apparently that is what he did here. Hopefully he will be able to get back to playing soon.
My prediction is:
Djoker/Stan
Mooray/Rafa
I wish!
My prediction is not based on preference just what I feel will happen. Stan in Djoker’s half may work really well for him as Stan might not even make it that far.