If Roger Federer pulls out of the French Open prior to late Friday morning, a significant wrench would be thrown into the draw ceremony. It would mean, of course, that Rafael Nadal would snag the No. 4 seed instead if the fifth spot and guarantee a meeting with Novak Djokovic no earlier than the semifinals. If Federer stays in, Djokovic and Nadal could potentially face each other in the Roland Garros quarterfinals for a second straight season.
The 34-year-old Swiss practiced in Paris on Wednesday, without confirming his status in either the affirmative or the negative for 2016’s second Grand Slam. As long as Federer remains in the mix, this will be one of the most highly-anticipated draw ceremonies in recent memory.
Here’s a look at five nerve-wracking storylines that will have journalists on the edge of their seats, fans praying for their favorites, players in denial about their hopes and fears, and Twitter teetering on the brink of explosion:
1) Where will Nadal land? Until we hear otherwise, it must be assumed that Federer will be a part of the proceedings. If that is the cace, Nadal will be a fifth seed for the fifth time this season. He has landed in Stan Wawrinka’s quarter on three occasions, Federer’s once (Federer ended up withdrawing from Madrid), and finally in Djokovic’s at the Rome Masters. While the nightmare scenario for Nadal is obvious, a No. 5 seed does not spell automatic doomsday. The nine-time Roland Garros champion could, for example, land in the third quarter of the bracket with either an injured Federer or a slumping Wawrinka as his 1-4 seed. That would set up a potential semifinal showdown against Andy Murray before a possible date with Djokovic in the title match.
2) Which 1-4 seeds will get Thiem and Monfils? There is some good news for Nadal if he stays at No. 5 instead of moving up to the fourth seed. Seeds 1-4 match up with 13-16 in the fourth round, while seeds 5-8 are on a collision course with 9-12. This is one of the rare occasions on which two players in the 13-16 pod are far more dangerous than anyone in 9-12 group. In fact, everyone seeded between 13 and 16 is in fine form. David Goffin was a semifinalist in both Indian Wells and Miami before recently double-bageling Tomas Berdych in Madrid. Roberto Bautista Agut is one spot behind Goffin at No. 10 in the race to London. But neither the Belgian nor the Spaniard has a ceiling as high as Dominic Thiem or Gael Monfils. Thiem owns the second most wins on tour this season and clay is unquestionably his best surface. From basically out of nowhere, Monfils has been motivated and nonsense-free throughout 2016. Either Thiem or Monfils would be a scary proposition for one of the top four players in the world in the last 16 at Roland Garros.
3) The case of Nick Kyrgios and one unlucky 9-16 seed. Has any player stood out more from the rest of his seeding group than Nick Kyrgios at this year’s French Open? Maybe not–given that Djokovic automatically goes into every bracket at the top and therefore is not technically part of any group. Consider this 17-24 pod: John Isner, Gilles Simon, Nick Kyrgios, Kevin Anderson, Benoit Paire, Bernard Tomic, Feliciano Lopez, and Viktor Troicki. Isner is never fun to play, but he has been hurt and out of form. Simon is a similarly frustrating opponent albeit for the complete opposite reason, but he has underwhelmed in 2016 and he does not love clay. Anderson has missed almost the entire year. Paire is Paire. Tomic is hopeless right now and despises the red stuff. Feliciano Lopez is maybe the only Spaniard on tour whose worst surface is clay. Troicki is slumping and–yep–dislikes the dirt. And then there’s Kyrgios. The 21-year-old Australian is 21-7 this season has won multiple matches in six of seven tournaments. He made a run to the Miami semifinals and the Madrid quarters. Although Kyrgios disappointed a bit at the Australian Open, he generally thrives on tennis’ biggest stages. Seven men in the 9-16 range are going to receive favorable third-round draws. As for the black sheep of that group who lands near Kyrgios in the draw, well…good luck!
4) Where will Wawrinka and Nishikori land? These situations are not quite as intriguing as Nadal’s status as the No. 5 seed, but both are important. Even with Wawrinka in borderline disastrous form ever since he triumphed in Dubai three months ago, he is still a far bigger threat than Federer at the moment. Neither Djokovic nor Murray will admit it, but they do not want to see Wawrinka in their half of the draw. ‘An injured Federer as a possible semifinal opponent? Yes, please.’ After all, Wawrinka is the defending Roland Garros champion. Who knows if a return to the scene of one of the two best moments in his career will rekindle the spark in his game? As for Kei Nishikori, he and Nadal are the clear-cut cream of the 5-8 crop. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, as usual, is a question mark due to physical problems. Berdych, the newly-anointed bagel boy, appears to be on his way out of the top 10 and just parted ways with coach Dani Vallverdu. The 1-4 seeds will be silently hoping to see either Tsonga or Berdych–not Nadal or Nishikori–fall in their quarter of the bracket.
5) The unseeded floaters. Alexander Zverev. Borna Coric. Andrey Kuznetsov. Fernando Verdasco. Leonardo Mayer. Grigor Dimitrov (hold the laughter). Thomaz Bellucci (hey, he just bageled Djokovic). Jiri Vesely (he just beat Djokovic). Those are some of the unseeded entrants whom a top player–or anyone, for that matter–may have to go up against in the first round. Heck, even running into Zverev in the second round would constitute a terrible draw at this point. With such an impressive contingent of floaters, upsets that aren’t really upsets could be plentiful during week one at Roland Garros.
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so Montenegrin National TV was right from the start! They were the first to announce Fed’s withdrawal, knowing about it even before Fed himself made a decision… 🙂
Now rafa has to avoid thiem and nishikori (:-
Pray pray pray
I don’t see either Thiem or Nishi beating Rafa in a best of five set match.
Djoko drawing thiem and nishikori would be great 🙂
Did you forget Kyrgios?
Now, if only Nole would withdraw…
Forecast is cool and cloudy thru next Thursday.
Not good for Rafa’s traditional early round nerviness.
LOL!
I don’t think Novak will be withdrawing! Can’t have everything!
I go hope that Rafa does not meet Novak until the final.
Nadal will win whoever he comes up against. The match he played against nole, he could have won 2 love easily, as he was ahead in both sets. REMEMBER, he is near 100 percent, and this is the best at 5 format, of the game, On CLAY.
doubt it, but who knows
Roland Garros: “Gael Monfils withdraws from RG16 because of a bad virus.”
https://twitter.com/rolandgarros/status/733558062842183681
That is so sad… And it’s bad for tennis! LaMonf has just reached his good form, could have done a lot at the RG with the crowd support etc! So sorry about him…
That’s a shame of him and for the tournament; he is always good to watch.
so foggy get the last seed with 2 out???
Yes
When is the draw? How much time left?
The draw could all have been fixed in advance on the computer. Seems a little bit fishy to me. The organizers say they would like a French national to win either the men’s or women’s title so let’s see where the French players are placed.
could gachasson be more of a cartoon parody of a frenchman? he’s hilarious…..
it’s going to take ages to get through the women’s draw…
Rafa Novak semi.
rafa tsonga
rafa nole sf ffs!!!!
rafa thiem ffs!
stan has rosol first round haha!
Rosol has been playing well this week. I know it is only a 250 but if he keeps up this form he will be a headache in the early rounds. Stan has upped his level slightly but as defending champion he will be nervous in the early rounds – with any luck he could get risolled. 🙂
why do we want stan to lose ed?? i agree that it’s a real possibility but he is on the other side of the draw to rafa..
I could give you several reasons Amy!!!!!
But I don’t want to bring a ton of coals down on my head.
oh go on ed!! i won’t get cross i promise..
have just had a pop at hawks so no energy left for anything but tame agreement now…
The earlier Stan loses, the easier it is for Rafa to be seeded fourth for Wimby.
Stan can find his game on RG at any time and look out if he does!
I agree with ed, the sooner the better for CB to lose.
rafa has sam groth first round
rafa has both zverev and thiem in his quarter. they play each other and the winner plays him.
does thiem have a shot?? rafa had better have played himself into some form by then…
Both Thiem and Zev Minor have played a heck of a lot of tennis this year and the wear and tear is beginning to tell. Thiem is the fitter of the two but his level has dropped a bit in the past few weeks. Both will be serious contenders in the future but somehow I dont think it will be this year.
Amy,
I do not think that Thiem can best Rafa in a best of five set match. It could be interesting given that it is the early rounds and rafa will not be at his best. 🙂
i tend to agree with both of you. my fear isn’t so much about rafa’s opponents but about rafa imploding as he has done in the past and there being someone on the other side of the net who has the game to take advantage of that.
brown, foggy, nando are all shotmakers so i am not overly convinced by this argument that it is the big servers who are the threat to him. not on clay. the 3 players who have taken him out before are players who can catch fire and hit winners.
he should have stayed at #5 and avoided nole. would have played murray in quarters instead
same scenario as 2013
not necessarily
and playing Tsonga in the quarters is better
not as good as playing berdy!!
murray has nishi but his draw looks very easy early on
murray has had incredibly easy draws these last 3 tournaments…
I think novak’s draw is a piece of cake until the semis!
I agree about getting Tsonga in the quarters. We don’t even know if he will get there, but Rafa will not have trouble beating him.
he wont
feeling depressed.
Amy,
Don’t feel depressed! Hang in there! This will be a different Rafa this year. I know the early rounds can be tough, but just take it one match at a time!
nole gets berdy in qf easy peasy…will be fresh as a daisy…