Paris R3 previews and picks: Federer vs. Isner, Nadal vs. Anderson

FedRoger Federer and Rafael Nadal will resume their Paris campaigns on Thursday. They appear to have tough third-round matchups on their hands with John Isner and Kevin Anderson, respectively.

(13) John Isner vs. (3) Roger Federer

Federer and Isner will be squaring off for the seventh time in their careers and for the second time in less than two months when they clash in round three of the BNP Paribas Masters on Thursday afternoon. The head-to-head series stands at 5-1 in favor of Federer, who beat Isner 7-6(0), 7-6(6), 7-5 during fourth-round action at the U.S. Open. Isner’s lone victory came in his opponent’s home of Switzerland via a four-set Davis Cup upset on clay in 2012. Federer is 4-0 against the American on hard courts (all outdoors).

Although the 34-year-old may not be quite at the level he showcased this summer, he is riding another wave of momentum after losing his Shanghai opener to Albert Ramos-Vinolas. Federer held off Rafael Nadal to capture a seventh Basel title on Sunday and he hammered Andreas Seppi to kick off his Paris campaign in style. Isner punched his ticket to the last 16 by taking care of Aljaz Bedene 6-3, 6-4 on Wednesday. The world No. 13 is 44-24 for the season and a modest 7-4 during this fall stretch, which is generally his least favorite time of year. Isner will make this one competitive, but his serve is no secret to Federer–who should once again be able to handle it well enough to progress.

Pick: Federer in 2 with at least one tiebreaker

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(11) Kevin Anderson vs. (7) Rafael Nadal

For most of the night on Wednesday it looked like Dominic Thiem would get a shot at Nadal in the third round. Instead, it will be Anderson going up against the Spaniard for the third time in his career. Anderson trailed Thiem by a set and a break, saved one match point in the second, and stormed back for a 6-7(3), 7-6(4), 7-6(5) victory that required two hours and 44 minutes of tennis. Thus continues an awesome year for the 12th-ranked South African, who reached the quarterfinals of the U.S. Open and is still standing with a 46-23 record.

It may not continue much longer. Anderson has been dealing with a shoulder injury at the end of a long 2015 campaign and an epic struggle with Thiem certainly will not help matters. The No. 11 seed is also 0-2 lifetime against Nadal and 0-5 in total sets heading into Thursday night’s tilt. Nadal prevailed 6-2, 7-6(6) at the 2010 Rogers Cup and 7-5, 6-1, 6-4 at the Australian Open early this season. The sixth-ranked Spaniard is 13-2 this fall and playing with arguably more confidence right now than at any point in 2015. After finishing runner-up in Basel, Nadal destroyed Lukas Rosol 6-2, 6-2 on Wednesday–a far cry from their third-set tiebreaker match last week. The seventh seed should capitalize on a fatigued opponent without too much trouble.

Pick: Nadal in 2

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18 Comments on Paris R3 previews and picks: Federer vs. Isner, Nadal vs. Anderson

  1. I don’t think that Rafa is playing at a top 3 level just yet. Especially that infernal serve. I noticed that Anderson’s serve stats dropped as the match went on. In particular, the percentage of first serves won. He was at 100% for the first set and I think even the second set.

    This one really took it out of me. I was too exhausted when it ended even to post anything! πŸ™‚

    Stan finished his match hours ago and he’s been able to sit back and watch this one. I just don’t like Rafa losing his serve early and then losing the first set. While it’s great to see him mount one of signature comebacks, I think he’s rolling the dice. That won’t cut it against the top players. He is going to have to do something about that second serve. Forehand still needs some work.

    I didn’t notice anything with the left knee. I sure hope that everything is okay. That’s another reason why I worry about these three set matches. At some point, it can take it out of Rafa.

    I am happy, relieved and can finally relax and finish dinner! Rafa lives to fight another day!

    I have been replaying that unbelievable TB over and over, especially those last few shots. Now that was vintage Rafa. As hard as it is to watch, this is the real Rafa. This is what he has always done – when his back is against the wall, it brings out his best. This time he had to fight off a match point. Closer than with Rosol in Basel, when he was two points from losing the match.

    Why do I get the feeling that this is what Rafa loves? πŸ™‚

    • NNY:

      Anderson lst set 81% (86% points) 2nd set 63%(81% points) 3rs set 50% (58% points)

      Rafa 1st set 68%(74% points) 2nd set 76% (92% points) 3rd set 65% (77% points)

  2. yeah, Rafa played great match…there were errors here and there but he was very strong and hit some brutal winners…it’s not easy to play this rejuvenated Anderson…the South African served big, was moving well, hitting deep and forcing Rafa to stand even further behind the baseline…the biggest value I see in Rafa’s fortitude and never give up attitude…it all smelled like one of those irretrievable defeats which Rafa majestically have turned into victory…Deep inside while watching this drama I had this inner feeling that Rafa would emerge victorious..i haven’t had one of those in a while…

    the Rafa of old is knocking on the door! He is about to step in and then nothing will be the same…I really feel, if healthy, Rafa will make the difference in 2016!

    and some of those winners Rafa hit are really worth remembering! it was pure class!

    Vamos Rafa!

  3. Great stuff from Nadal. Also Anonymous, big servers r good for game because they test everyone and it is interesting to see underdog big servers score huge upsets and victories. Like ivanisevic winning Wimbledon. Personally I usually root for big john in fact I want him to win whole title even though that’s pretty unlikely but not impossible cuz he’s a big server and his groundies are improving. Best groundstrokes big server in Anderson though by far. Raonic has improved them too of course but his injury has disallowed us from really seeing him play much this season.

  4. U.Toni’s interview before and Rafa’s interview after the match vs. K.Anderson:

    (U.Toni answers in French, see subtitles in English;
    the announcer & Toni & Rafa talk about Rafa’s right ankle: UT says it hurts a little but nothing serious and Rafa says it’s a similar problem he had in the Beijing final but it’s fine…)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rnhvrN8c6I

  5. So it was Rafa’s ankle that bothered him before the match. Also, Rafa said it himself in that interview.- that this was a match that a few months ago he would not have won!

    It’s quite interesting to hear him say it. He knows that there’s a real difference now. It was cute when the interviewer asked him if he could remember the last time he had match point and was able to win! Rafa laughed and said he can’t think of that now. So charming and really happy! πŸ™‚

  6. Benny G says:
    November 6, 2015 at 12:31 am
    Great stuff from Nadal. Also Anonymous, big servers r good for game because they test everyone
    *************************
    This would be true if they were spread evenly amongst the top players, but Rafa has had his fair share of them lately; one after the other whilst some just play namby pamby ball shufflers with no big game and come up looking invincible.

    • I agree its frustrating. Rafa has now faced Ivo, Raonic, Rosol (Γ—2), Cilic and Anderson. Also guys like Pospisil, Sock and Tsonga comes with big serves too. Rafa has to deal with them one after another on his least favorite surface. Its almost a miracle that he survived so many tough matches, sometimes at the brink of losing and yet he came through, except against Tsonga at Shanghai.

  7. Federer:
    “It’s tough going out of a tournament without losing your serve,” the third-seeded Federer said.

    ******************************************
    This demonstrates what I mean about the giants. It doesn’t matter how well their opponent is play they can just simply take the racquet out of their hands with aces. It’s very frustrating.

  8. The speed of the court is a moveable feast, depending on who people want to win. Those who want Stan to win say the court suits his game; quite what that is based on, escapes me and those who want Rafa to win say the opposite. Even the commies say the court is fast for one match and do a complete volte face for the next one depending on who is playing.

    I though he court was supposed to be as slow as treacle which is bad news for the big servers, but they are not doing too badly, are they. I have never seen Anderson serve so well. And what about Isner taking Federer out?

    It makes interesting reading but luckily, the match still has to be played.

  9. I think this is the moment to admit, in public, I found Robbie Koenig’s commentating last night excellent. It was even handed, relevant and enlightening. I even smiled at his bon mots!

    #There’s a first time for everybody πŸ™‚

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