Nitto ATP Finals round-robin preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Medvedev

It’s not often that you can say momentum has evaporated for two players who are a combined 13-3 since the U.S. Open. But that’s just how good Rafael Nadal and Daniil Medvedev were throughout the summer.

Each man will try to recapture his summer magic when they go head-to-head at the Nitto ATP Finals on Wednesday afternoon. Nadal won both of their previous encounters during the American hard-court swing; 6-3, 6-0 in the Montreal title match and by a far more memorable 7-5, 6-3, 5-7, 4-6, 6-4 scoreline in the U.S. Open final.

It is a small victory of sorts for the world No. 1 that he is even taking the court on Wednesday. There was plenty of doubt surrounding his status for this year-end championship following a Paris Masters withdrawal brought on by an abdominal issue. Questions only mounted when Nadal got trounced 6-2, 6-4 by Alexander Zverev in his London opener, but he put those concerns to rest during his post-match press conference. Thus the Spaniard’s bid for his first-ever title at this tournament goes on despite his first loss since the Wimbledon semifinals against Roger Federer.

“It was not a problem with the abdominal at all,” Nadal explained. “I did not feel pain in the abdominal at all. No, just Sascha…well played. And me…bad played, honestly. We can find reasons or excuses, but at the end of the day what really matters is I need to play much better in two days. That’s the only thing. We knew that going to be tough at beginning because the period of time since the injury until today is very short, but we are here trying. I (will) stay positive; I (will) stay competitive–something that today I was not.”

Medvedev famously reached six consecutive finals (won three) from Washington, D.C. through Shanghai, but he skipped a 250-point event at home in Moscow and may have lost is mojo. The fourth-ranked Russian saw his finals streak come to an end with an immediate loss in Paris to Jeremy Chardy and his perfect 5-0 record against Stefanos Tsitsipas evaporated in the form of a 7-6(5), 6-4 setback on Monday.

“I think just general energy was not the way I wanted,” Medvedev admitted. “And talking about energy, I’m not talking only about physical. Mentally I was missing something. I didn’t have good energy enough to get the win today. But honestly, the way I was practicing last few weeks, I really lost a little bit the level I was playing…. I lost the momentum a little bit, but (I will) try my best to get it back. I’m quite confident that at one moment I will get it back; the question is: is it going to be this tournament or the next one?

“I’m struggling a little bit with finding back my level I had in (the) USA and Shanghai and St. Petersburg, which is I think normal for any sportsman. That’s what is amazing about top 3–Big 3 and (Andy) Murray before–that even when you look at them and you think, ‘Okay, they are not playing as good as they can,’ they still win these matches.”

That is something Nadal certainly did not do on Monday, but one match under his belt plus another day of rest and practice could be a big help. As Medvedev basically pointed out, Nadal is the more reliable of the two competitors to bounce back from a rough start inside the O2 Arena.

Pick: Nadal in 3

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44 Comments on Nitto ATP Finals round-robin preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Medvedev

    • Hello my friend, Alison! Fantastic last minute fight from Rafa. Maybe he gonna win WTF this year!? He can do it – good luck Rafa!

  1. (almost) feel sorry for Meddy at this point. Looks like he has really taken a dive in form. He admits it’s low mental energy. He’s not sharp – couldn’t hit his mark or decide where his mark should be.

    Vamos Rafa!

  2. That really sucked from Medvedev. Hope he doesn’t fall into that pit where others sometimes go after a hot streak. But classic comeback third set by RAFA
    C
    ongratulations Rafa and Rafa fans !

    • Rafa was just solid and Meddy couldn’t close – no matter what. He’ll have a lot to think about.

      Rafa was just classic never give up to the end. We’ve seen him do this many times before. So, composure and experience from Rafa won the day.

    • Vmk1….you say you? I was at work and just quit watching the score. Then my friend says Rafa won. I said NO!!! Bcos the last time I watched Med was serving at 5:2! Then I watched the score and I could not believe it!!! Med was serving to get to tb!!!! I said oh my gosh, what voodoo magic did Rafa perform there?! How the hell did he do that given the way Med was playing?!! Rafa had no biz winning this match, lol!!

      I actually feel sorry for Med, he played well like Theim did yesterday but at the end of the day you’ve gotta close!

      TO me Rafa looks very slow in this tourney. For me, if he wins another match and makes it to the semis that to me would be a great result! VAMOS!!!

      Can’t wait to see Roger and Novak tomorrow!!

    • Well he basically had no one cheering for him. Thiem was too good and the crowd loves him.

      I do like Thiem. Just was a painful loss for Nole and for his fans like me. I don’t think he has much time left. Of course I could be and hope I am wrong.
      Cheers, Ali!

        • Maybe healthwise. I don’t know about that though. He’s a warrior and a champion but I don’t know how much he can emotionally take.
          Actually it seems his ability to recover from big matches and the effort has diminished. Not sure if it is a permanent thing. It could be.

          • All said n done…at this stage of career…he is more likely to do well in slams across surfaces …Rafa is fav on clay but will find it herculean to win other slams ..fed will find it herculean to win any of the slams .djoko still can win AO n wimby with not too much effort unless he runs into an opponent that takes ball out of his racquet

          • yes and there’s more and more chance that Nole runs into an opponent that takes the ball out of his hand!

            Wimbledon and AO and USO — Nole’s chance is not as strong and back in his day. RG is a good bet for Rafa – Rafa just needs one or two more GS. Novak needs 3 or 4 more…that’s too many!!

      • Doubt the crowd loves Thiem. They love Roger. And Rafa. They want Roger to win the tournament and Rafa to get the YE#1 and they’ll be happy to throw Thiem under the bus when the time comes.

        • Oh ya, I agree about being happy to throw Thiem under the bus for Roger or Rafa. Stupid fans.

          Nole gets thrown under the bus for Thiem though. Had to turn the volume off. Haters and rude tennis fans break my heart. But there is nothing I can do about it, lol….

    • Alison I feel the same!! My expectations are quite low wrt to Rafa winning this! His comeback kid performance today was really one for the ages but it says more about Med than it says about Rafa!! Rafa looks slow even from Paris! Rafa needs more time than before to recuperate from slams, and the same goes for Roger and Novak! Novak is still suffering from Wimby and Roger picks and chooses his tourneys these days! I see next year the top 3 r going to have a very hard time winning day in and day out! I am already starting to lament the big 3 dynasty!! Sigh!

      As for the fans cheering or not cheering for Nole, they are just still very bitter about him stealing Wimby trophy from Roger!! They will never forgive him, lol!!

  3. BEST COMEBACK WIN OF THE YEAR!

    Take a bow, King Rafa Nadal! Just hand him the year-end no.1 trophy for this win alone!!

    Game on! I think he will take Tsitsipas down as well and it will then be Thiem in the SF. He’d def have a better chance of beating Thiem than Novak or Roger.

    How things have changed since yesterday!

    • Isn’t Thiem toping the group vr ? So you mean zverev if he beats tsitsi surely tops the group

      Even if Rafa beats tsitsi will he qualify surely…what if tsitsi beats zverev n zverev beats Medvedev ..all 3 have 2 wins..Rafa may not qualify then right…it’s mandatory so that tsitsi loses today

      • It’s complicated especially if the next match goes 3 sets because it will come down to sets/games won in Group A and right now it’s all still up in the air, except that Thiem is through. Still Group B to be decided as well.

        I get confused at times, but I really to like this format for the top 8 World finals in both ATP and WTA.

        Did not have my heart set on Nole winning this or ending the year at #1. It seems like it’s what he wanted though…that’s what hurts.

      • @ Sanju, you are right.

        My scenario only plays out if Zverev tops the group by winning his matches.

        Rafa needs to bear Tsitsipas in straight sets.

        For now, vamos Roger! lol

        • Better is for tsitsi to lose today…then if Rafa beats tsitsi…he’s through surely…so let’s pray for tsitsi to lose n fed to win Tomm

          • That would be IDEAL.

            I am no longer too bothered with djokovic or Fed winning but in thsi tournament, I really want Djoko to lose this matches so that Rafa can get his well deserved no.1 rankings.

            The hitting that I saw in the 3rd set, I am telling you, Rafa won’t go down easily now. He is serving well and I am confident he can reach the semis and even the final esp if he faces Thiem.

          • Yes this match has to spur him on. If fed beats djoko tomm..then Rafa will have no pressure n can play real loose …but he better go second in his group to face Thiem 🙂

            Ricky ..is Thiem sure of topping his group even if he loses to berretini

    • I couldn’t watch when Rafa was down 5-1. Now I have to look at the recording to see how Rafa did it!

      Houdini in the house! I am just glad that Rafa is still in this. I am not expecting him to win it but he can get up the semis. Every match counts. Rafa needs to beat Tsitsipas. This match has to help!

      I still cannot believe it!

  4. OMG! What a comeback by Rafa! Unbelievable!! What a fighter!

    I’m not a fan of the WTF but I gotta say this one’s produced some fascinating matches!

    Tough on Medvedev but I guess he knows that Rafa’s at his most dangerous when he’s down.

    And, oh, right, grats to Ricky for the correct prediction. #NID

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