Nitto ATP Finals round-robin preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Medvedev

It’s not often that you can say momentum has evaporated for two players who are a combined 13-3 since the U.S. Open. But that’s just how good Rafael Nadal and Daniil Medvedev were throughout the summer.

Each man will try to recapture his summer magic when they go head-to-head at the Nitto ATP Finals on Wednesday afternoon. Nadal won both of their previous encounters during the American hard-court swing; 6-3, 6-0 in the Montreal title match and by a far more memorable 7-5, 6-3, 5-7, 4-6, 6-4 scoreline in the U.S. Open final.

It is a small victory of sorts for the world No. 1 that he is even taking the court on Wednesday. There was plenty of doubt surrounding his status for this year-end championship following a Paris Masters withdrawal brought on by an abdominal issue. Questions only mounted when Nadal got trounced 6-2, 6-4 by Alexander Zverev in his London opener, but he put those concerns to rest during his post-match press conference. Thus the Spaniard’s bid for his first-ever title at this tournament goes on despite his first loss since the Wimbledon semifinals against Roger Federer.

“It was not a problem with the abdominal at all,” Nadal explained. “I did not feel pain in the abdominal at all. No, just Sascha…well played. And me…bad played, honestly. We can find reasons or excuses, but at the end of the day what really matters is I need to play much better in two days. That’s the only thing. We knew that going to be tough at beginning because the period of time since the injury until today is very short, but we are here trying. I (will) stay positive; I (will) stay competitive–something that today I was not.”

Medvedev famously reached six consecutive finals (won three) from Washington, D.C. through Shanghai, but he skipped a 250-point event at home in Moscow and may have lost is mojo. The fourth-ranked Russian saw his finals streak come to an end with an immediate loss in Paris to Jeremy Chardy and his perfect 5-0 record against Stefanos Tsitsipas evaporated in the form of a 7-6(5), 6-4 setback on Monday.

“I think just general energy was not the way I wanted,” Medvedev admitted. “And talking about energy, I’m not talking only about physical. Mentally I was missing something. I didn’t have good energy enough to get the win today. But honestly, the way I was practicing last few weeks, I really lost a little bit the level I was playing…. I lost the momentum a little bit, but (I will) try my best to get it back. I’m quite confident that at one moment I will get it back; the question is: is it going to be this tournament or the next one?

“I’m struggling a little bit with finding back my level I had in (the) USA and Shanghai and St. Petersburg, which is I think normal for any sportsman. That’s what is amazing about top 3–Big 3 and (Andy) Murray before–that even when you look at them and you think, ‘Okay, they are not playing as good as they can,’ they still win these matches.”

That is something Nadal certainly did not do on Monday, but one match under his belt plus another day of rest and practice could be a big help. As Medvedev basically pointed out, Nadal is the more reliable of the two competitors to bounce back from a rough start inside the O2 Arena.

Pick: Nadal in 3

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41 Comments on Nitto ATP Finals round-robin preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Medvedev

  1. Unbelievable Rafa! Did he save MP in the third set before coming back to win in a TB? I couldn’t remember but couldnt believe Rafa would come from two breaks down against a big server like Medvedev to win in the end.

    I was resigned to the fact that this WTF might just turn out to be like 2009 for Rafa. Strange, how things turn out so far, when Rafa is still in with a chance to reach the SF, and Djoko having to fight so hard against Thiem and lost, and its ‘do or die’ for Djoko in his next match (against Fed).

    Vamos Rafa, when I was about to give up on you in the match, you came back to snatch victory from the Jaws of defeat! What a warrior, amazing!

    • Rafa did have to fight off a match point when he was down 5-1. I remember because that is when I stopped watching.

      This is why I will be lost when Rafa retires. There is no one else like him and there never will be. He just did not give up. Medvedev was the one who fell apart.

      I thought Rafa would lose for sure. I was trying to come to terms with it. Then he just kept winning games and hanging on there.

      He has the heart of a lion!

      😍❤️

      • NNY,

        It’s never over v Rafa until the last ball 😀 He fought tooth and nail for each point and Medvedev assisted by losing the plot that would have gave him a win. He had plenty of room to win being up 4-0. Even Nole would have been focus and win at up 4-0 in the decider, I think. Medvedev is not the Medvedev of last summer. Interesting to see who shows up in form and with a clear mind to win AO 2020.

        • Elizabeth,

          You truly are a class act! I said this site is better when you are here!

          I read your posts after Novak lost. But he is going to fight for it all the way. He and Rafa are great competitors. I don’t often cry over amazing wins by Rafa, unless it’s a slam. But this one got to me. I broke down and cried after he fought his way back from 5-1.

          Our guys have so much heart. We can both be proud of them. I hope that you did not think I was gloating over Thiem’s win. But I have had trouble connecting with him, even though he is so talented. He showed me something with this win. He could have folded after giving back the break. But he stayed strong and pulled it out. Medvedev did not do it this time. He folded with the sarcastic thumbs up to Rafa as he kept losing one game after another. He’s got a few things to learn. You never want to let a great champion back in the match. I thought it would cost Thiem the match. But I think Novak will be ready to fight for the win with Fed. He will not roll over.

          We are very lucky to have our guys still in this sport. Including Fed, too. I see the young guys battling to establish themselves. They are getting better. But they also have a lot to learn. It’s great to watch these matches.
          😀

          • Oh I forgot to add that I think Medvedev has lost some of his mojo. For him to lose it do completely in that third set, is not the kind of focus and concentration he displayed in the summer hard court season.

            I did want to give a shout out to Ricky for getting it spot on with his prediction for Rafa’s match. Well done!

          • Nny,

            Such a nice post @ NOVEMBER 13, 2019 AT 8:34 PM. Thank-you.

            I don’t think anyone here intends to insult me when they express their negative feelings about Nole. If they do, it doesn’t matter. I won’t be deterred 😀

  2. Great win. This WTF was always going to be tough, but now Rafa has got his mojo back and he wont be so rusty now.

    Guys on a side note, doesn’t Rafa look fat . His face and back look very fleshy. Am I the only one feeling that way ?

  3. Now Tsitsipas winning makes it complicated for Rafa. I would have given him a good chance to beat Tstisi and Thiem and reach finals (guaranteed #1) but now unless Medvedev beats Zvervev, he would qualify over Nadal with the group win.. but then it would be a 3 way tie and there are very little chances Nadal qualifies. Nadal didnt help himself with a three setter and too many games played.

    Got to watch how it plays out and no point thinking of combinations unless Rafa beats Tsitsi in the first place. Haha I just contradicted my entire comment above :)). I just would love to see Rafa get the YE #1. Now if Fed beats Djoko……..:D

    • Haha. Under normal circumstances if we were looking for the title as a priority neither Fed nor Djoko would be a good thing for Rafa in the semis. but now yes all I care for is the YE #1 and guess what if somewhow Fed goes over the line Rafa will free himself and go for it all the way.

  4. Rafa has no chance topping the group neither fed. So i think fedal cannot happen in semi.

    If fed beats djoko…both fed n djoko will beat tsitsi easily ..so either is sure in final ..

    If Rafa makes it to semi..it’s not certain he beats thiem as thiem is very high on confidence now

      • Yes true Ricky. If Rafa beats Tsitsipas and Medvedev beats Sasha, then Rafa will top the group and will then play against either Fed or Djoko.

        So vamos Rafa and Medvedev; maybe vamos Fed too ( for the sake of Rafa’s YE no.1).

        • Ah so he needs both Fed and Medvedev working for him 😂😂.. and maybe we will get both the title and the YE#1.

          Damn can’t stop wishing more for Rafa 😬

          Given tsitsipas form with a straight set over zverev what do u think nadals chances are beating him?

          • C’mon Rafa beating fed or djoko on an indoor fast court in semi..surely not happening no ? That too when jyst out from injury

          • Rafa isn’t incapable of beating them. I belive he has beat Djokovic in a semi before. I believe if he goes thru to semis, his confidence could get a lil higher considering both YE and title is on the line depending on who he plays.

            Now i dont see him relaxing even if Fed makes it.

            I noticed he hit a 130 serve against Medvedev.so his abs seem ok. Unfortunately first match he wasn’t as confident or free

  5. After the uso i was the only rafan saying ye 1 is must n necessary, everyone was like that’s not important..just slams count..now all of them want year end no 1 for Rafa 🙂

  6. Great match .No point for Med to dwell on it,though,he’s got another match to win.
    I really don’t care who wins now.Its an exhibition tournament with many twists and turns and a fair amount of surprise winners

    • so he either tops the group or doesnt qualify for semis ? He beats Tsisipas he tops the group because of the group win against Tsitsi ?

      Does that mean he beats Tsitsipas and thats all he needs to go to semis ? This is a bit confusing. Three way tie with Zverev would mean Zverev qualifies above in terms of sets and games won I would assume.

        • That’s right. Unless zverev beats Medvedev but performs worse than Rafa somehow considering all three matches. In short anything can happen.

          • Rafa has beaten both fed n djoko here but once…djoko in 2010 round robin n fed in 2013 semis..but 2013 fed was subpar fed n 2010 djkko was not djoko post 2011..so on indoor court Def Rafa is not the fav though he can

  7. This is so confusing with the scenarios for who gets into the semis. So now if Rafa beats Tsitsipas and Medvedev bears Zverev he gets into the semis. But both have to happen.

    I thought Zverev was dreadful against Tsitsipas. He was serving lights out against Rafa and Rafa admitted that he did not compete well. Then against Tsitsipas the tennis channel commies kept saying that his serve speed was getting lower. I don’t know what could have happened in two days for his serve to deteriorate. Tsitsipas is playing well, but Rafa is not Zverev. That is all I will say about that.

    I always want Rafa to do well, but I try to be realistic. This injury cost him valuable preparation time practicing. He needs everything to be going right here. So I am not set on him winning.

    I always wanted YE #1 for Rafa. I wanted it last year. It is about the slams at this point in his career. No question. But it is also a feather in his cap to end the year at #1, especially at this stage of his career. So I always wanted YE#1 and still do.

    • Sanju thats just you wanting to see Rafa get to the semis. No pro player would be ok to lose a match unless perhaps compromised by an injury. Lets hope Rafa earns the win and gets it done. but it could very well happen Tsitspias wont dig into his reserves and take it a bit easy knowing he needs to sustain for possibly three more matches. A good start for Rafa and a confident and aggressive game plan should do it. Rafa does need to play his part to let Tsitsi mentally fade.

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