Nitto ATP Finals round-robin preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Medvedev

It’s not often that you can say momentum has evaporated for two players who are a combined 13-3 since the U.S. Open. But that’s just how good Rafael Nadal and Daniil Medvedev were throughout the summer.

Each man will try to recapture his summer magic when they go head-to-head at the Nitto ATP Finals on Wednesday afternoon. Nadal won both of their previous encounters during the American hard-court swing; 6-3, 6-0 in the Montreal title match and by a far more memorable 7-5, 6-3, 5-7, 4-6, 6-4 scoreline in the U.S. Open final.

It is a small victory of sorts for the world No. 1 that he is even taking the court on Wednesday. There was plenty of doubt surrounding his status for this year-end championship following a Paris Masters withdrawal brought on by an abdominal issue. Questions only mounted when Nadal got trounced 6-2, 6-4 by Alexander Zverev in his London opener, but he put those concerns to rest during his post-match press conference. Thus the Spaniard’s bid for his first-ever title at this tournament goes on despite his first loss since the Wimbledon semifinals against Roger Federer.

“It was not a problem with the abdominal at all,” Nadal explained. “I did not feel pain in the abdominal at all. No, just Sascha…well played. And me…bad played, honestly. We can find reasons or excuses, but at the end of the day what really matters is I need to play much better in two days. That’s the only thing. We knew that going to be tough at beginning because the period of time since the injury until today is very short, but we are here trying. I (will) stay positive; I (will) stay competitive–something that today I was not.”

Medvedev famously reached six consecutive finals (won three) from Washington, D.C. through Shanghai, but he skipped a 250-point event at home in Moscow and may have lost is mojo. The fourth-ranked Russian saw his finals streak come to an end with an immediate loss in Paris to Jeremy Chardy and his perfect 5-0 record against Stefanos Tsitsipas evaporated in the form of a 7-6(5), 6-4 setback on Monday.

“I think just general energy was not the way I wanted,” Medvedev admitted. “And talking about energy, I’m not talking only about physical. Mentally I was missing something. I didn’t have good energy enough to get the win today. But honestly, the way I was practicing last few weeks, I really lost a little bit the level I was playing…. I lost the momentum a little bit, but (I will) try my best to get it back. I’m quite confident that at one moment I will get it back; the question is: is it going to be this tournament or the next one?

“I’m struggling a little bit with finding back my level I had in (the) USA and Shanghai and St. Petersburg, which is I think normal for any sportsman. That’s what is amazing about top 3–Big 3 and (Andy) Murray before–that even when you look at them and you think, ‘Okay, they are not playing as good as they can,’ they still win these matches.”

That is something Nadal certainly did not do on Monday, but one match under his belt plus another day of rest and practice could be a big help. As Medvedev basically pointed out, Nadal is the more reliable of the two competitors to bounce back from a rough start inside the O2 Arena.

Pick: Nadal in 3

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22 Comments on Nitto ATP Finals round-robin preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Medvedev

  1. Hope Ricky’s prediction is right this time! Law of averages? This has been a very unpredictable tournament. I dunno, Monday Rafa played as badly as I remember seeing him play. Can he turn it around in 2 days?

  2. Rafa’s matches are always very stressful for his fans! He just has the tendency to make life difficult for himself and for his fans.

    He always throw in some terrible game here and there and has to fight so hard to hold serve, whilst his opponents seem to hold serve more easily and quickly.

  3. So much for Medvedev talking himself down. Two bad points from Rafa and Medvedev wins the first set.

    This tournament is really a nightmare for Rafa. The timing of the abdominal injury could not have been worse.

  4. It’s really upsetting that Rafa has to get all these injuries when it comes to end of the season. The worse thing is he may then lose the lead in the race for YE no. 1; it happened last year, just hope it won’t happen this year again.

  5. I missed the first set, but I’ve just tuned into the 2nd, and yeah Rafa still looks rusty.

    Medvedev is quite a force though, his defence is not Djoko level but for a big guy it’s excellent. Maybe this won’t be his tournament, but 2020 looks bright.

  6. I hate to say it, but Rafa really needs another break. Easier said than done. Also he must hold his serve if he wants to win this second set.

  7. Rafa just hit a 130 mile an hour ace to hold. I don’t see Medvedev giving up another break.

    But I do think that Rafa is playing better than he did against Zverev. I just don’t know if it’s enough.

  8. Medvedev is definitely no playing as focused or dialed in; not moving and anticipating as well as he was last summer. WE’ll see how the last set goes.
    Vamos Rafa!

    • Might have a chance here Alison! Rafa broke again. Medvedev still doesn’t have it mentally together yet – he’s been pulling to many sarcastic faces and busy giving thumbs up to Rafa. That’s not how he got to where he is.

      Rafa just needs another break here! One more break Rafa!

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