Monte-Carlo SF previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Goffin, Pouille vs. Ramos-Vinolas

Surprising: only one top 10 player is in the Monte-Carlo semifinals. Not surprising: that player is Rafael Nadal. The seventh-ranked Spaniard will battle David Goffin on Saturday, while Lucas Pouille and Albert Ramos-Vinolas are set for an unexpected showdown.

(4) Rafael Nadal vs. (10) David Goffin

Surprisingly–even shockingly–Nadal and Goffin have never faced each other as they head into semifinal action at the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters on Saturday. Nadal had been on a collision course with familiar foe Novak Djokovic, but Goffin upset the second-ranked ranked Serb 6-2, 3-6, 7-5 on Friday. Thus Goffin appears to be in line for another stellar clay-court swing on the heels of an awesome 2016 campaign that saw him reach quarterfinals at the Rome Masters and French Open. The 10th-seeded Belgian is 22-7 this year and also boasts victories this week over Nicolas Almagro and Dominic Thiem.

Nadal has as many titles (nine) as the other three semifinalists combined (Goffin, Lucas Pouille, and Albert Ramos-Vinolas) had single-match wins in Monte-Carlo before this week started. The Spaniard is two victories away from a 10th triumph following defeats of Kyle Edmund (6-0, 5-7, 6-3), Alexander Zverev (6-1, 6-1), and Diego Schwartzman (6-4, 6-4). Nadal is 22-5 this season and 22-2 against players not named Roger Federer. Goffin is tough, but it won’t be easy for him to follow up the biggest win of his career just 24 hours later–and he is not exactly running into the easiest of opponents.

Pick: Nadal in 2

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(15) Albert Ramos-Vinolas vs. (11) Lucas Pouille

Pouille and Ramos-Vinolas will be squaring off for the third time in their careers (second at the ATP level) on Saturday. The head-to-head series stands at one win apiece, with Ramos-Vinolas having survived in a third-set tiebreaker at a clay-court Challenger three years ago before Pouille prevailed 6-3, 6-2 on the hard courts of Auckland one season later.

To say this is a surprising Masters 1000 semifinal would be a gross understatement. Both players are seeded, but Ramos-Vinolas had to go through world No. 1 Andy Murray and fifth-seeded Marin Cilic in addition to picking up victories over Renzo Olivo and Carlos Berlocq. The 24th-ranked Spaniard now has three clay-court semifinal appearances in 2017, two other quarterfinals, and one final (lost to Pablo Cuevas in Sao Paulo). Pouille, a semifinalist in Rome last spring, has advanced by taking out Ryan Harrison, Paolo Lorenzi, Adrian Mannarino (via a first-set retirement), and Cuevas (6-0, 3-6, 7-5 on Friday). The Frenchman has bounced back nicely from early losses in Indian Wells and Miami to Donald Young, but Ramos-Vinolas has been an absolute beast on the slow stuff this year.

Pick: Ramos-Vinolas in 3

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65 Comments on Monte-Carlo SF previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Goffin, Pouille vs. Ramos-Vinolas

  1. Never mind just watched it. The ball was literally half a foot out. Happy for Rafa but what the hell. That completely deflated the match for David. Damn

    • David only has himself to blame for sulking through a whole match after one bad mistake by the umpire. These errors happen all the time and he still had chances to hold his serve because it went to a couple of deuces before Rafa finally won the game. Rafa himself suffered exactly the same mistake from Mourier with the ball as far out as it was today in Madrid in 2013 against Youzhny. Even though Mourier actually admitted during the match that he got it wrong and apologised to Rafa, Rafa still lost the point.

  2. Is it safe to assume that Ramos-Vinolas has the “bow down to my all-time great countryman” syndrome that Stan has also suffered from with Fed? I get the feeling that Albert has too much respect for Rafa to even make tomorrow competitive…

    • Kevin, I don’t agree with you. On the contrary, all Spaniards want to join the “I beat Rafa” club. As for Stan, I don’t think he was capable of beating Roger until he finally did.

    • HE has a measurement error that is greater than the mark left on the court.

      It would be ridiculous to put HE into place on clay in these extremely rare instances when the umpire doesn’t know which mark to check.

  3. Alison you do not like conflict so you feel upset. It is part of the game and if the crowd doesn’t like it or some fans of other stars go on and on about it, they should go watch some other sport. There is no need for Rafa fans to feel defensive. In the instant case it must be remembered that while Koening and other insufferables could see where the ball went, Rafa couldn’t. It is absolutely ridiculous to expect Rafa to give away a point without knowing.

  4. In his post match interview, Rafa said he didn’t know whether the ball was in or out so he really doesn’t care because it was the umpire’s decision and he didn’t do anything wrong. Rafa also said a bad call at 3:2 in the first set is not that important because so many more points had to be played in the match tennis is not like other sports where one score makes a big difference to the outcome.

  5. I Dont mind conflict Mary, theres not much point being on an internet chat forum if you do, i just get annoyed by contentious decisions, so theres a bit of a difference ….

    • Wrong decisions are part of the game so once in a while every player gets a wrong decision. There is nothing unfair about it. It would be unfair if the umpire deliberately gave a wrong decision.

    • Alison, everyone likes players to be treated fairly. It happens. Watch the video I posted above, Rafa lost his serve to Youzhny in Madrid 2013 in exactly the same circumstances with the same umpire no one ever mentioned it after the match.

      There was that match where Djokovic played the ball in Murray’s half of the court and even though everyone saw it the umpire didn’t and gave Djokovic the point. It’s annoying and unfortunate for the player at the wrong end of the mistake but that’s right.

  6. LOL RickyDimon….

    Ricky Dimon‏ @Dimonator 23m23 minutes ago
    just saw the the incident. LOL at anyone who thinks Nadal should have given Goffin the point. Ball bounced 82 feet away from him.

    #….

  7. LOL RickyDimon….

    Ricky Dimon‏ @Dimonator 20m20 minutes ago

    1) why didn’t Goffin find the right mark?

    2) why didn’t he hold serve when he still had 12 game points after that?

    3) Cedric is awful.

    • I am disgusted with Mary Carillo! She made it all about Rafa, when it was about the. Hair umpire. He went over to check the mark and looked at the wrong one. None of the commentators on the tennis channel said a word about Rafa! They were criticizing the chair umpire!

      Mary Carillo wasn’t doing commentary on this match. It was only when they went to her for a preview of what was up next, that she felt the need to open her big mouth and somehow put this all in Rafa! Why am I not surprised!

      She has said spiteful things about Rafa throughout the years. Her bias is beyond obvious and renders her useless as a commentator.

      Oh and I really enjoyed reading Ricky’s comments! Good stuff!

  8. I don’t usually think much of Bodo, but this is worth a read:
    http://www.espn.com/tennis/story/_/id/19218562/tennis-how-one-bad-line-call-helped-rafael-nadal-advance-monte-carlo-final
    A few comments:
    1. Hawk-eye should be mandatory at all professional events. A call that bad should never happen, period, and is easy to avoid.
    2. The call probably quite possibly changed the result of the set. The change in Goffin’s play was marked and immediate after he lost that game.
    3. Goffin is not as mentally tough as I thought. I can’t see that sustained drop in play happening to Novak or Fed, or even Murray.
    4. Rafa did raise his level after that, and the result may well have been the same even if Goffin did stay at his high level, though it would have been very close.
    5. I think Rafa should have conceded the point. He knew it was out; just watch his body language after the call. I know when I hit a shot a foot and a half out; I’m sure professional players do.
    6. To his credit, I think even though Rafa praised Smycek (sp?) a couple years ago for conceding a point, if I remember correctly, I think he said that he’s not sure he would have done the same. Bad calls are part of the game, and these guys are playing to win the match.

    • I came across that article and declined to read it because of the author. Gave up on his clickbait years ago.

      So my response to your points Joe:

      1. Hawk-eye (like any measurement device) has a measurement accuracy (or error) which is within 3 mm. It’s not used on clay because the mark left on clay is more accurate. The umpire not knowing the right mark is extremely rare and doesn’t justify the cost for those few cases.
      2. No doubt Goffin deserved the win however this happens to every player on tour. Nadal was up two sets agains Fed in the 2005 Miami final and he had a bad call that fed hit way long as shown by hawkeye that was called good. It would have given Rafa triple break point to go up 5-3 and serve for the title but instead fed held serve and came back to win in five. Rafa argued incredulously but moved on putting it behind him. Sure Goffin would have been up 4-2 yes but with Nadal on the other side, I’m not sure that break would have been sufficient otherwise.
      3. Agreed. If you watch guys like Nadal and Federer, they will likely argue the call vociferously (as one can find on youtube) but they immediately put it behind them, a mark of a true champion, And yes Murray has a temper but it’s directed at his own play and he is also able to move on.
      4. Yeah I think so. Not uncommon for Rafa to start slow throughout his whole career.
      5. Could he have, sure. Should he have, no way. He may have THOUGHT it went out, but he couldn’t have KNOWN it was out to overrule the umpire and lines person who are in much better positions.
      6. Rafa has shown good sportsmanship in many ways throughout his career. These calls go both ways in the long run. Unfortunate but not the players responsibility IMO.

      7. Bodo is just AWFUL.

      • Hawk,
        1. I didn’t know about the relative margin of error on clay. Had always wondered whether something like that may have been true, but that it was mainly tradition and the thought that the mark on clay was good enough that kept the status quo in play. Perhaps it could be reserved for extraordinary situations like this one; perhaps the umpire could have access to it privately to make sure he didn’t mess up badly like in this case.
        2. Certainly if there is a ‘should’ it is very weak. It is very understandable that Rafa didn’t concede it, and I think it’s a rare player who would in that situation. But I do think that if he had thought his shot was close he would have acted differently, probably asking for the umpire to check the mark.

        Rafa’s right that at the end of the day it’s one point in the middle of the match. It obviously didn’t decide the match and as I said, I’m not sure the ultimate outcome would have been different. But I’m sure it would have been a better match had Goffin been able to put it behind him.

        • I don’t think Rafa or any other player out of position from so far away would have done otherwise.

          I think it’s overblown and Goffin should have handled it better overall and gotten over it before Rafa went up a break. It was still on serve.

          Unfortunate but part of the game.

          • Ao I’m replaying that point on TennisTV and the linesperson immediately yells “OUT” and raises his arm yo indicate it.

            Mourier doen’t overrule (at least audibly by saying something like “Correction, the ball was in.” but he gets down out of his chair to check the mark! When no one asked him to.

            Why did he do that?

            Yeah Mourier truly is awful (along with Bernardes FTM).

          • He gets out of his chair reacting to Goffin pointing at the mark but I don’t know why he would because Goffin is not disagreeing with the call.

            Bizarre.

        • one question is why is everyone in the world dissecting one single point in a match that ended 6-3, 6-1

          it would have beatdown city regardless

      • conceding from the other side of the court doesn’t even make sense esp when the umpire is confidently pointing to a specific mark!

        IF you are really observing that closely, watch it again. When the ball is travelling in the air and is close to landing, Nadal is still moving his feet. When the ball makes contact with the ground he is still moving his feet but after the linesman yelled OUT then he stops and turns away. He didn’t look back because he would have felt the ball was long but if were so sure of it going out the moment he hit it, he wouldn’t be moving his feet right till the end! Then he sees umpire pointing to a mark. How could he have overruled that?

        I have seen Nadal concede points when the ball lands on HIS side of the court. He was in no position to have a say in that.

        I know he would be doubtful at Cedric’s call but he was not in a position to know with certainty. Just like Federer didn’t act any differently in that video I shared. He probably felt the ball was long but he was in the worst position to tell so can’t blame him.

        • Cedric running to check the mark was strange though.

          I think poor Goffin unnecessarily pointed to the mark with his racket and that caused Cedric to just go and have a look. It was unfair with Goffin but trust me, Rafa really improved his level and there was nothing much GOffin could have done. I don’t hesitate from criticising Nadal’s poor play but after that deuce he was really strong.

        • Does anyone have information about how many sporting concessions were made by players when the ball was on the other side and they couldn’t see the mark? As far as I know all such concessions have been made by a player when he could see that the linesman or umpire was wrong.

          • I think your exactly right Mary. I’ve never seen an example of what the federazzi Carillo and Bodo are saying Rafa should have done. Only when it’s obvious and pretty much always when it’s on their own side of the court.

            Ridiculous, criticizing Rafa for not doing something that no one else has ever done

  9. Nadal’s take, which is kind of hilarious to picture:

    “Asked if he talked with David after the match, Nadal added: ‘I was talking with him in the shower, but not about that, because there is nothing to talk about that. I was talking with him about who he plays against in Barcelona and who I play against in Barcelona. There is no talk about this ball because if he has to talk with somebody, it’s with umpire, not with me. I repeat, I cannot do anything from 20 something meters away from the other part of the court.’ “

    • Nothing that Bodo has to say would interest me in the least! Talk about being biased! I really disgusted with his some line Carillo and Bodo are putting this on Rafa! All he did was hit the shot!

      I like vr’s take on how it all played out. Rafa heard the linesperdon call it out DVD round have accepted it. As vr said, Rafa kept moving his feet. It’s not like Rafa got involved in this thing. I assume Mourier went to look st the mark when Goffin pointed to it. That’s when things got crazy. Rafa had no way of knowing if Mourier was looking at the wrong mark or not. The tennis channel commies said that Mourier looked at the wrong mark and that was when Goffin got upset and started arguing. There was nothing Rafa could do way on the other side at the back of the court. There is no reason why he should have gotten involved in it.

      I also think that Rafa had already raised his level of play at that point. This was the first time he was able to pressure Goffin in his service game. At one point it was 40-0. But Rafa got it to deuce and then there was this battle as he was pushing Goffin to get the break back. Goffin had his chances even after the bad call.

      I think Rafa was already making adjustments in the match and it’s not unreasonable to think he was getting into the match. Goffin needed to put this bad call behind him and move in and try to break back. This happened relatively early in the match, so there was every reason for Goffin to believe that he could still be competitive.

      Trying to put this on Rafa is absolutely outrageous.

      • There are done autocorrect mist shed early in my last post. Too much to even correct. Basically I was upset with Carillo and Bodo for trying to put this on Rafa. Rafa accepted the “out” call initially. What happened once Mourier got out of the chair and looked st the mark, was out of Rafa’s hands.

  10. Hawks!Come join me and rc and Nny on jalep wildguess!C’mon!It’s fun!!I wait for u to do Barcelona okay?Oh!and u too Kev!!It’s time u guys shows how awesome u are in a real competition!!And yeah!..it’s a DARE!!Woohoo!!

  11. And Nny!!..don’t forget to do the Bracket okay?It’s open now!!Good luck Nny!!..oh…rc sure will win this week!!Haha..She’s sooooo deserve it!!woohooo!!

    • MA,

      I know! But that’s okay!

      I filled out my bracket. I hope that I did it right and it shows that I am entered.

      I always used to have to ask rc if she would check to make sure I was entered.

      • Nny!…I’m glad you’re already filled out your bracket…and i’m sure that you’re already IN…Anyway,R U READY TO RUMBLE WITH RAFA Nny??LET’S RUMBLE!!!!WOOOHOOOO!!!

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