Monte-Carlo SF previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Goffin, Pouille vs. Ramos-Vinolas

Surprising: only one top 10 player is in the Monte-Carlo semifinals. Not surprising: that player is Rafael Nadal. The seventh-ranked Spaniard will battle David Goffin on Saturday, while Lucas Pouille and Albert Ramos-Vinolas are set for an unexpected showdown.

(4) Rafael Nadal vs. (10) David Goffin

Surprisingly–even shockingly–Nadal and Goffin have never faced each other as they head into semifinal action at the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters on Saturday. Nadal had been on a collision course with familiar foe Novak Djokovic, but Goffin upset the second-ranked ranked Serb 6-2, 3-6, 7-5 on Friday. Thus Goffin appears to be in line for another stellar clay-court swing on the heels of an awesome 2016 campaign that saw him reach quarterfinals at the Rome Masters and French Open. The 10th-seeded Belgian is 22-7 this year and also boasts victories this week over Nicolas Almagro and Dominic Thiem.

Nadal has as many titles (nine) as the other three semifinalists combined (Goffin, Lucas Pouille, and Albert Ramos-Vinolas) had single-match wins in Monte-Carlo before this week started. The Spaniard is two victories away from a 10th triumph following defeats of Kyle Edmund (6-0, 5-7, 6-3), Alexander Zverev (6-1, 6-1), and Diego Schwartzman (6-4, 6-4). Nadal is 22-5 this season and 22-2 against players not named Roger Federer. Goffin is tough, but it won’t be easy for him to follow up the biggest win of his career just 24 hours later–and he is not exactly running into the easiest of opponents.

Pick: Nadal in 2

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(15) Albert Ramos-Vinolas vs. (11) Lucas Pouille

Pouille and Ramos-Vinolas will be squaring off for the third time in their careers (second at the ATP level) on Saturday. The head-to-head series stands at one win apiece, with Ramos-Vinolas having survived in a third-set tiebreaker at a clay-court Challenger three years ago before Pouille prevailed 6-3, 6-2 on the hard courts of Auckland one season later.

To say this is a surprising Masters 1000 semifinal would be a gross understatement. Both players are seeded, but Ramos-Vinolas had to go through world No. 1 Andy Murray and fifth-seeded Marin Cilic in addition to picking up victories over Renzo Olivo and Carlos Berlocq. The 24th-ranked Spaniard now has three clay-court semifinal appearances in 2017, two other quarterfinals, and one final (lost to Pablo Cuevas in Sao Paulo). Pouille, a semifinalist in Rome last spring, has advanced by taking out Ryan Harrison, Paolo Lorenzi, Adrian Mannarino (via a first-set retirement), and Cuevas (6-0, 3-6, 7-5 on Friday). The Frenchman has bounced back nicely from early losses in Indian Wells and Miami to Donald Young, but Ramos-Vinolas has been an absolute beast on the slow stuff this year.

Pick: Ramos-Vinolas in 3

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36 Comments on Monte-Carlo SF previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Goffin, Pouille vs. Ramos-Vinolas

  1. There have been some great matches at MC this week….gut-wrenching 3 setters. Wish I was there. I like Goffin in 2 and ARV in 3.

  2. I’ve already picked Rafa in 3 elsewhere. I don’t think Goffin has enough weapons to seriously trouble Nadal if Rafa is playing the game he played against Zverev and at the end against Diego.

    That said, I think the main factor in the match is probably the Nadal serve and the Goffin return. Rafa struggled at times with his serve against Diego and at times throughout the tournament. And I’ve been impressed with the Goffin return; for awhile in the 3rd set he was ripping returns even off Djoko’s 1st serve. I’m not sure that dynamic will repeat itself, but I wouldn’t be too surprised if it does, at least in patches. IMO, that is the main potential danger for Rafa in the match.

    • You have to look at the court conditions. It will not be a night match hence conditions won’t be heavy, so Rafa can serve and play better. Rafa went for more pace in that Zverev match hence his serve % went down.

      The Diego match was played in heavier conditions thus favored the hard hitters like Diego ( and Kyle too, in set 2&3 in the R2 match).

      Rafa should be able to deal with Goffin in sunny conditions; Goffin not hitting as hard as Kyle or Diego so even conditions turns heavy, I think Rafa could still handle him.

  3. I’ve been impressed with ARV this tournament, especially his never say die attitude. Pouille has a nice game and is up and coming, but I think ARV takes this one in 3.

    • Why lol? It’s not as if they were soundly beaten! Cuevas was serving for the match when he was 5-4 up in the third set but faltered and then lost the match. Djoko too was in a good position to win but was affected by the sun glaring in his face st that side of the court where he had to play two games and he lost his serve then and allowed Goffin to level it. The ending part of the match was dramatic and Goffin could only take it after having five MPs!

      I mean who can be 100% right in predictions?? Can you?

    • Yes Julius…i admit i was wrong about Novak and Goffin,but,this is also the first time i saw Goffin stand up to the big boys in such a manner and not wavered[at least for long]..i am very very surprised to see the new improvement from Goffin..it’s not easy to spar with one of the best in history but he did it…as for today,i still think Rafa will win..my guess in 2..but it’s easily could go to 3..

  4. Rafa on Goffin in his interview in Spanish (translated by GSS):
    “I’ve trained with him this week and know he’s playing very well. He hardly has any weakness, has a fantastic backhand and moves really fast.”
    “I have to try to keep him from hitting from comfortable positions, but it’s going to be difficult.”

  5. Expected Novak to close out the match when he went a break up in that third set, cant see Goffin beating two of the all time greats back to back, but a great win, and things seem to be changing at the top of the mens game, exciting times ahead in tennis ….

  6. Rafa was never doubtful to beat Schwartzman! I think he himself was sure of it! Although Rafa never underestimated his opponents, Rafa seemed a bit relaxed and loose in this match! Once he got focused and kind off ‘angry’ at himself, he played well and restored the order to win in 2!

    Goffin played great match against great opponent! Those of you who think Novak did not play well or looked uninterested are so wrong! Novak hit well, he served great to save himself from trouble and returning well..But Goffin would not go away! He fought like a lion out there and deserved the win! Don’t think Nole expected Goffin would stay mentally in the match but he sure did!

    It’s gonna be tough for Rafa, but I expect focused and determined Rafa to show up, with clear game plan! Goffin to face top spin shots which may trouble him big! Hope Rafa beats Goffin in two to be rested and ready for the finals!

    Vamos!

  7. The Novak of old would not have lustcthst match, Novak up a break in the third set was not going to let a match get away from him.

    Novak raised his level of play in the second d set and Goffin’s level went down. The difference now is that Novak can’t sustain it.he’s lost edge. Novak won so many matches when he wasn’t at his best on sheer mental will. He doesn’t have that now.

    Goffin did well to stay in the match and try to create chances. But Novak has lost his mojo these days. That does not mean he can’t play well anymore. You don’t see Novak being out hit in baseline rallies.

    Today Rafa needs to come out and play his game.

    Good luck, Rafa! Let’s do this!

    • Yeah, more importantly opponents now believe they could beat Novak so it is twice as hard for him to win close matches…the same happened to Rafa at dome point in his career..,

  8. Rafa played sub-par yesterday and needs significant improvement today. I understand the need to just put lots of ball in play in a match to gain confidence but today is not the day as the opponent is more aggressive.

  9. Rafa needs to get out of his comfort zone a bit and spread the court more. He has been playing too safe in relation to the sidelines.

    Now that was a goood forehand DTL winner.

  10. My goodness is he intentionally giving so much air to his backhands DTL because Goffin is a short guy? Trying to get the ball bounce above his head? lol

    There were some WTA-like loopers in that game. I hope he keeps them very infrequent.

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