Monte-Carlo SF previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Goffin, Pouille vs. Ramos-Vinolas

Surprising: only one top 10 player is in the Monte-Carlo semifinals. Not surprising: that player is Rafael Nadal. The seventh-ranked Spaniard will battle David Goffin on Saturday, while Lucas Pouille and Albert Ramos-Vinolas are set for an unexpected showdown.

(4) Rafael Nadal vs. (10) David Goffin

Surprisingly–even shockingly–Nadal and Goffin have never faced each other as they head into semifinal action at the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters on Saturday. Nadal had been on a collision course with familiar foe Novak Djokovic, but Goffin upset the second-ranked ranked Serb 6-2, 3-6, 7-5 on Friday. Thus Goffin appears to be in line for another stellar clay-court swing on the heels of an awesome 2016 campaign that saw him reach quarterfinals at the Rome Masters and French Open. The 10th-seeded Belgian is 22-7 this year and also boasts victories this week over Nicolas Almagro and Dominic Thiem.

Nadal has as many titles (nine) as the other three semifinalists combined (Goffin, Lucas Pouille, and Albert Ramos-Vinolas) had single-match wins in Monte-Carlo before this week started. The Spaniard is two victories away from a 10th triumph following defeats of Kyle Edmund (6-0, 5-7, 6-3), Alexander Zverev (6-1, 6-1), and Diego Schwartzman (6-4, 6-4). Nadal is 22-5 this season and 22-2 against players not named Roger Federer. Goffin is tough, but it won’t be easy for him to follow up the biggest win of his career just 24 hours later–and he is not exactly running into the easiest of opponents.

Pick: Nadal in 2

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(15) Albert Ramos-Vinolas vs. (11) Lucas Pouille

Pouille and Ramos-Vinolas will be squaring off for the third time in their careers (second at the ATP level) on Saturday. The head-to-head series stands at one win apiece, with Ramos-Vinolas having survived in a third-set tiebreaker at a clay-court Challenger three years ago before Pouille prevailed 6-3, 6-2 on the hard courts of Auckland one season later.

To say this is a surprising Masters 1000 semifinal would be a gross understatement. Both players are seeded, but Ramos-Vinolas had to go through world No. 1 Andy Murray and fifth-seeded Marin Cilic in addition to picking up victories over Renzo Olivo and Carlos Berlocq. The 24th-ranked Spaniard now has three clay-court semifinal appearances in 2017, two other quarterfinals, and one final (lost to Pablo Cuevas in Sao Paulo). Pouille, a semifinalist in Rome last spring, has advanced by taking out Ryan Harrison, Paolo Lorenzi, Adrian Mannarino (via a first-set retirement), and Cuevas (6-0, 3-6, 7-5 on Friday). The Frenchman has bounced back nicely from early losses in Indian Wells and Miami to Donald Young, but Ramos-Vinolas has been an absolute beast on the slow stuff this year.

Pick: Ramos-Vinolas in 3

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84 Comments on Monte-Carlo SF previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Goffin, Pouille vs. Ramos-Vinolas

  1. I see people blaming Nadal on social media as well. Can’t help but beat some sense into people:

    You are in a position to overrule calls when the mark is on YOUR side of the court! You can’t f**** expect the player to go the other side to show what he THINKS is the mark from the other corner of the court, OR expect him to shout ‘hey umpire,it LOOKED out’.

  2. Lol. Rafa had bad decisions go against him in the past, only to make him play even better. Its all in the mind. Learning experience for Goffin

  3. I remember Rafa not being allowed to challenge vs Berdych in a qf at the AO2012 on set point and ended up losing the first set. He came back to win in 4.

    And I think VR mentioned, Roger hit a forehand long in the 2005 miami final at 0-30 in the third set with the umpire not calling it out and Rafa lost the set and the match

    It is part and parcel of the game. Rafa, if he knew it was out should and would have given the point

  4. It would be shocking for Rafa to not win this title now… There’s just no way Ramos-Vinolas would beat him in a Monte Carlo final.

  5. There NOTHING Goffin could have done. Rafa’s level was too much for Goffin after that ugly deuce. That was more like the king of clay ! 6-3 6-1

    The crowd was split. After a warm embrace at the net, I heard some booing and then when the umpire announced ‘rafaelll Nadall’ there was a lot of cheering too. When the cheering dampened, the booing resumed.

    STUPID crowd!

    • That bad call cost Rafa triple break point and likely the title as he would have been up two sets and a break at 5-3 and an opportunity to serve for it..

      The crowd was booing Rafa for questioning the peRFectly out ball.

      The take aways are that Rafa immediately put it behind him and moved on, and that this happens occasionally to everyone (except Fed).

  6. Rafa truly professional enough to ignore the booing and jeering in the end.

    Goffin, really disappointed with him. I thought after yesterday’s match, he ought to have some confidence and fighting quality in him. It end up he’s so easily affected and lost his fighting spirit, very disappointing, like nothing has changed regarding his mental strength.

  7. Rafa played brilliant match, there was nothing Goffin could do! Rafa would have beaten him no matter what! I ferl sorry for Rafa, he deserved better than this from the fans. Those stupid ungrateful morons!

    • Those that booed Rafa were probably the Goffin fans and also those who disliked Rafa and didn’t want to see him winning MC for the tenth time creating a new record.

  8. On to Barcelona and Madrid where is the crowd will all be in his support.
    Oops I forgot, there is still a final to play tomorrow.

    • He should play like he did post that ‘ugly deuce’. If he does that, no chance for ARV. ARV is playing great clay-court tennis. He is constructing points well. Spreading the court well with both wings not making many mistakes.And, he is a LEFTY. Rafa will be ready and win his 10th title tomorrow.

      SWEET start to the clay season this has been. Although were expecting him to face at least one of Djo/Muzz/Wawa but that didn’t happen. I am not at all surprised about that though as I knew Djo could lose to any player playing well.

  9. Something has to be done about Mary Carillo! She went on another rant after the match during a discussion about what happpened. Someone should send her the link of that match with Rafa and Fed!

  10. I’m beginning to wonder at this point if Rafa may be able to sweep the whole clay season without even having to face any real competition… I would expect Novak to pick up his level at least a little bit, but who knows? Maybe he’s really in a long-term slump? At this point, I feel like the only person who could potentially stand in his way at Roland Garros is Stan, but he has equal potential of losing in the first round as he does of winning the whole thing… I have this feeling deep down that Federer will skip Roland Garros, too (which I personally think he should), but if he does play it, should we be expecting another Fedal final or semifinal as the blockbuster matchup of Roland Garros in 2017 haha?? I just don’t know what to think anymore about this season. I’m really enjoying seeing Rafa and Fed have resurgences, but it feels weird… It’s as if the rest of the top-10 are going through some weird mid-career crisis, and Fed and Rafa are like, “Alrighty then! We’re just gonna run the table now!” 🙂

    • No stan is is no match to Rafa on a clay court if the latter is playing at a high level. Yes, the competition has faded and I hope Rafa stays injury-free to take full advantage as he totally deserves it. Murray is trying to play lots of matches (he has is playing Barcelona as well) and get ready for RG. Djokovic is the biggest mystery at the moment.

      I can’t comment on Federer .I am not even sure if he is going to play at the French. I guess he’d see the competition haha.

      I do think Fed and Rafa will end the year in the top 2.

      If rafa wins tomorrow, he will be 810 points behind Federer. He will be no.1 in the race before RG begins by some lead.

        • NNY, yes, if he does well to defend MC and Barcelona titles and then wins at Madrid, and Fed not playing any warm up tournament or loses early if Fed plays. Rafa also has 180 points at Rome to defend.

          Kei and Raonic not looking likely to threaten for no.4 position before RG as they both are injured or recovering from injury. Kei pulls out of Barcelona because of a wrist injury.

      • I hear you, VR. However, if Stan shows up to RG this year playing like he played there in 2015, you can’t tell me that that Stan is “no match” for Rafa. If this was pre-2014 Rafa, sure, Stan wouldn’t have much of a chance. But if Stan can play like he did at 2015 RG, in a final against this current Rafa, I would actually pick Stan to
        win that. The problem is that we never know if that Stan is going to show up until the match actually starts, so there’s no way to tell… Do you think that a top-form Stan would really be “no match” for the current Rafa? Not 2017 Monte Carlo Stan, but 2015 Roland Garros Stan. It could be that Stan isn’t even capable of ever reaching the level he did in the 2015 final against Novak. Like maybe it was a one-off performance that he can’t replicate. If I knew for a fact that that were the case, then I don’t know if he would have more than slight chance of beating current Rafa at RG. But if Stan is capable of playing at that level again, than he could certainly have a shot at beating Rafa in a RG final or semi…

        • Kevin,

          Isn’t it unfair to bring out the 2015 stan against the ‘current Rafa’? I mean, I would totally expect Nadal to be playing a lot better and more aggressive at RG if he keeps building momentum the way he is. So yes, stan would not be able to match Rafa because I am expecting Rafa to keep improving and reach a very high level at RG.

          Secondly, there is one thing you need to keep in mind. When Rafa is playing aggressive, his forehand prevents wawrinka from imposing his game to a very good degree. Djokovic really allows stan to unleash the stanimal as he doesn’t have as much firepower to push stan back. Sure, Novak is aggressive, his court positioning is great when he is confident but he doesn’t have that next-level firepower. Stan simply bunts back so many returns and is able to start the rally and then hit a big shot to turn it in his favor. If stan chips a return back to Nadal, don’t even ask what would happen on the court of RG.

          I have said this many times in the past. Stan finds it the toughest to impose his game against Nadal, followed by Fed and then Nole. Fed is able to destroy stan’s rhythm with his backhand slice and he can KILL short balls with his huge forehand. Rafa’s forehand, esp on clay, keeps stan pushed behind the basline ( even more so because Stan returns serves from deep behind) and he pounces on stan’s chipped/sliced returns. Novak gives him a lot of rhythm and allows the stanimal to be unleashed.

          I know 2015 stan was quite something and beat Federer quite handily as well but that was clay. Clay is the surface where stan can impose his game better against Fed.

          Watch the 2013 RG match between Rafa and stan to get an idea. Not saying that match is a perfect barometer but it illustrates the idea of how stan is not able to impose his game on Rafa on clay. There is NO way stan’s backhand can be the same weapon against Rafa at RG as it was against Djokovic.

          I agree 2015 Stan will cause problems to Nadal but it won’t be enough at all. And yes this is assuming Nadal continues to build momentum and peaks at RG (which is a reasonable assumption as it was happening last year as well).

          • Agree with VR that Rafa’s best would beat CB’s best anywhere anytime IMO.

            CB’s best could possibly very well beat current Rafa (not at his best) but so could a handful of other slam winners at their best level.

            But none of them are at their best (other than Federer).

            So Rafa still has to improve.

            I think Roger will most likely play RG unless he sees Rafa, Nole and Murray all playing fantastic on clay.

            If it’s just one of them playing great, I think Fed would take his chances and play with a shot at a double career slam and keep hopes alive for the calendar slam to “one up” Nole’s Grand Slam last year.

    • Well, the big four, especially, take turns to have their respective slumps! It’s up to their fellow big four plus all others to take advantage of the situations and seize the opportunities opened up for or to them!

      I think the current scenario is that some of these past 30 yo guys are beginning to decline, and the young gen guys are still up and coming, trying to move up the rankings but still not there yet to be in the top ten or to challenge the big guys at the slams.

      Fedal are now taking full advantage, Fed fending off Kyrgios, and Rafa A Zverev. But credit has to be given to Fedal, for being ready and good enough to be there to take advantage.

    • I think Rafa has a real opportunity in this clay season. Like Fed had his opportunity in the HC season. There is a vacuum at the top of men’s tennis now. Murray didn’t look fully recovered from that elbow tear and may need more time before he is ready. I heard that he was serving about 20 miles an hour slower in his match with ARV. Novak is still struggling. Stan has not looked that good.

      It’s an opportunity for the young guys if they are ready to step up. But Rafa has a great chance to get some titles and get momentum heading into RG.

      Someone may yet heat up in Madrid and Rome. We will have to wait and see. But the opening is there for Rafa.

    • Rafa’s best will always beat CryBaby’s best.

      Neither are at their respective best ATM.

      The only player that can stop Rafa is Rafa.

      Overall I really liked what I saw from him today. Best performance in MC so far.

      Great fighting spirit channeling the boorish French crowd. It enabled him to forget any earlier nervousness and his confidence would not be denied.

      • Of course Rafa’s best will beat Stan’s best… But I’m not convinced that Rafa not at his peak would be a lock against a streaking Stan.

        • Well you could say that about a streaking Djokovic, Federer or even Murray.

          A streaking Novak and a streaking Soderling beat a non-peak Rafa at the French Open. And Soderling is no three time slam winner like CB.

          Rafa has to be at his 95% best to win the French Open. Always been that way.

        • Kevin, I don’t know which version of Rafa you are picking to compare to Stan of FO2015 – the Rafa of 2015, or MC 2016, or the Rafa now at MC2017?

          Imo, the Rafa of MC2016 was good enough to beat the Stan at FO2015. As long as Rafa could hit with depth esp with his FH and plays with enough aggression, he will beat Stan.

          The current Rafa (of MC2017), well, if he plays like he did vs Zverev, or vs Goffin from 3-3 first set onwards, then yes he can beat that Stan. In both these matches, Rafa was hitting with depth and intensity, not missing much, so Stan won’t find it easy to push Rafa back or to dictate points.

          I agree with VR, that Djoko lacks the fire power, that of Rafa’s FH. Djoko’s DHBH was not hit with much topspin that could have troubled Stan’s SHBH, so Stan could boss Djoko around hitting with his raw power all day long, and Stan is a strong guy.

          I also saw a Delpo bossing Djoko around on the HCs at Shanghai with his raw power, but Djoko used his guile and his quickness to beat Delpo in the end. On clay I guess it’s harder to do that and so Stan could have his way.

        • Oh god, there is no way to convince anyone about these pointless subjective year vs year hypothetical matchups.

          They are ridiculous heavily biased preformed conclusions.

      • My favorite quote from Andy Roddick: “I wasn’t as right as I thought I was.”

        True there’s no way Rafa can make the call. You can’t see where the ball lands from where he was. You can guess, sure, and he was not about to challenge the linesman’s original call of out. But you can’t know. No idea what got into Mourier’s head. The US commies said he wasn’t paying attention but if that’s the case, why in blazes would he over rule?

        Mary Carillo has a thing for Goffin. She should have known better.

        • So glad I wasn’t stuck with the US feed.

          You can say what you want about Koenig et al but Carillo is insufferable (not as bad as David Mercer though).

  11. The stars are perfectly aligned for Rafa to win his tenth MC title. God willing.

    I firsf time I saw Rafa was at RG in 2005 he was up against Sebastian Grosjean, the darling of the French crowd,
    and play was held up for over five minutes while the crowd booed non stop over the umpires line: decision.
    There used to be a YouTube clip but it was removed – most likely because the French Tenni’s Association didn’t want the world to see how badly behaved the spectators could be at RG. . Rafa was just short of his 19th birthday and went on to win the title. W hat struck me at the time was how he managed to keep his cool However the antipathy towards Rafa carried on for many years.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/tennis/frenchopen/2360417/Nadal-unruffled-by-agent-provocateur.html

    • ed251137 (AT 4:33 PM) says: “What struck me at the time was how he managed to keep his cool.”

      He understood that the crowd was booing the umpire, not him.

    • ed, wow, I can’t believe I can’t find a video from any source on the web anymore of that spectacle.

      To be fair to augusta, I did find a video of that match highlights (less the controversial moment) and at the end the crowd was very respectful of Nadal but that was before he started beating down Federer year after year after year there when they turned on him.

      Here it is…

      http://www.ina.fr/video/2845450001002

      #TheTruthIsOutThere
      #TrustNo1

      • AT 6:37 PM.

        ¤ The article ed posted is clear enough to understand why the spectators booed.
        ¤ The spectators have booed Rafa at RG only once – it was during the match between him and Soderling in 2009.

        I wonder WHY one poster has been trying to convince (i.e. attempting to brainwash) the GS readers year after year that the RG crowd has regularly been disrespectful to Rafa.

        • AT 7:30 PM,

          ¤ I was talking to ed referring to her not being able to find the video and showing that the crowd in those early days were respectful to Rafa so your point is incorrect as usual.
          ¤ They boo, whistle and disrespect him cheering for his opponent on many occasions (even when the opponent is relatively unknown).

          You don’t give respect to posters here like Mary, ed, vr and many others who know about the boorisih French Crowd behaviour. Even Uncle Tony and Rafa have commented on their disrespectful behaviour.

          I wonder WHY one poster is trying to convince herself (i.e, self brainwashing via confirmatory bias) year after year that the RG crowd (dominated by fedfawns) has not disrespected Rafa (just like the MC crowd did today after they booed when Rafa returned to the court and the AO crowd did against Rafa vs CryBaby (also dominated by fedfawns).

        • I add to My post AT 7:50 PM,

          At 7:30 PM, my how your tune has changed. You once claimed that the spectators NEVER booed Rafa but it was just the “hooligan-Fedfans”.

          #CantKeepYourOwnWebOfDecietStraight

          • AT 8:10 PM,

            Yes, the hooligan-Fedfans who were among spectators booed, not the French crowd.

            [augusta08 says on November 2, 2015 at 6:53 pm: “Speaking of the French crowd, hawk is permanently trying to convince people here that Rafa has ALWAYS been treated badly by them. I have always said that hooligan-Fedfans booed Rafa and it has happened twice: at the Paris Masters in 2008 and at RG in 2009.]

        • I add to My post AT 8:10 PM,

          Many posters here and elsewhere as well as tennis players and coach already agree that the french crowd disrespected Rafa in the past including:

          VR
          NNY
          ed
          vamosrafa
          Mary
          natashao
          rickydimon
          shireling
          chloro
          rafaisthebest
          holdserve
          deuce
          Andy Murray
          Rafael Nadal
          Uncle Toni

          (just to name a few)

          • AT 8:39 PM,

            So all of those people have been brainwashed according to you.

            augusta008 is always the same.

            Hilarious!

          • What is with the hooligan fed fans?? So these special type of people are different from the ‘crowd’ and are some sort of hooligans sponsored by Fed or someone? :s truly mindboggling lol. Yes, there would be federer fanatics who would try bring name to Nadal but there are Nadal fans as well who do the same Augusta you are one of them.

            It is a sport, come on!

            Of course a lot of people like and respect Rafa in France. But, they have shown disrespect as well and there is no secret. Fed is more loved there and it happens! It is sport so chill out.

          • and you try to make sense at least once. ‘Fed hooligans’ ! what the heck!! sounds as if fed sends thousands of paid people to stadiums to attend Nadal matches!!

            And the only one who seems to be brainwashed is you. Not us,.

  12. My biggest hope right now is that Rafa does not get injured again… That would just put the biggest damper on this season, and would obviously absolutely devastating for his fans. Assuming Rafa at very least makes the final or semifinal of every clay tournament, I actually think he would be very wise to skip grass all together. I know he won’t because he loves Wimbledon so much and missed it last year. But considering how prone to injury he is, I think that it would be wise for him to get a lot of rest before the hardcourt season so he can have his best shot at US Open. Much like with Fed and the clay season. I really think that Fed shouldn’t even bother playing Roland Garros. I think it puts him a greater risk of injury, and makes him less rested for grass, especially since he’s playing Stuttgart immediately after RG. Sure, if he could make the final or even semis of RG, it would help his chances of finishing the year #1, but I don’t think that is a priority for him anymore. If he wants Wimbledon and US Open more than anything else, he would be wise to skip RG…

    • Lol this was classic. ‘I want to see the mark’. Yeah dude, the mark you pointed out was the right one. We are all blind.

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