Monte-Carlo R2 previews and picks: Nadal vs. Gabashvili, Federer vs. Stepanek

Rafa4Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer will contest their 2014 Monte-Carlo openers on Wednesday. Nadal is going up against Teymuraz Gabashvili and Federer is facing Radek Stepanek.

(1) Rafael Nadal vs. (Q) Teymuraz Gabashvili

Nadal’s bid to regain the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters title and win the tournament for the ninth time in his career will begin on Wednesday afternoon. The top-ranked Spaniard is 48-2 in Monte-Carlo, with losses coming in the 2003 third round to Guillermo Coria and in last year’s final to Novak Djokovic. Nadal is 21-3 this season, with titles in Doha and Rio de Janeiro. He is coming off a routine 6-3, 6-3 setback against Djokovic in the Miami championship match.

Up first for Nadal is Gabashvili, against whom the No. 1 seed is 3-0 lifetime. Gabashvili booked his spot in the last 32 with a 4-6, 6-4, 6-4 defeat of Gilles Simon on Tuesday. The relatively resurgent Russian is up to No. 58 in the world and he already owns eight ATP-level match wins in 2014. By comparison, he had three such victories in 2012 and 2013 combined. Nadal may take a round or two before he reaches peak form on clay, but on any surface–especially this one–he should have little trouble with Gabashvili.

Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 5-7 games

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Radek Stepanek vs. (4) Roger Federer

Stepanek and Federer will be squaring off for the 16th time in their careers on Wednesday. Federer is dominating the head-to-head series 13-2, including 9-0 in their last nine. Both of Stepanek’s victories came on clay, but those results were back in 2002 (3-6, 6-3, 6-2 in Gstaad) and 2008 (7-6(4), 7-6(7) in Rome). They have faced each other twice in the past year, with Federer prevailing 6-3, 6-3 last spring in Madrid and 6-2, 6-7(4), 6-3 earlier this season in Dubai.

Stepanek’s week got off to a fast start on Monday, when he destroyed Ivo Karlovic 6-1, 6-2. The 35-year-old Czech is still going relatively strong, ranked 41st in the world with a decent 7-6 record in 2014. Federer, of course, will be a much different beast than Karlovic. The fourth-ranked Swiss is 24-4 for the season, which includes a title in Dubai and a runner-up showing in Indian Wells. Clay obviously isn’t Federer’s best surface, but it should serve him well against Stepanek, whose aggressive tactics to keep points short will not work as well.

Pick: Federer in 2 losing 5-7 games

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61 Comments on Monte-Carlo R2 previews and picks: Nadal vs. Gabashvili, Federer vs. Stepanek

  1. I can’t get over the commies. The campaigned for the enforcement of the time violation, then complain when it’s enforced.

  2. Forehand on fire ! Backhand very solid, ROS was also pretty good and serve too.. 10/10 for an opening round match …just got to keep building momentum with every match…

    • Are you sure the serve is good? He only won 17% of his second serve. I watched Novak and Fed and is now watching Stan, out of the top four, Rafa is the one playing the worst. Stan is now on the way to bagel Cilic in the first set! Even Ferrer bageled Chardy yesterday!

      Don’t know what to make of this match, I guess Rafa is different player from the other top four guys, taking so long to get into stride, if it is Dolgo that he’s playing today, I think he’ll run into big trouble! The way Rafa plays, ie having to run so much to defend from so far behind the baseline, and even though he could still get a passing shot winner turning defence into offence, I wonder how long more would he be able to run like that year after year when he gets older. He’s not going to be so quick forever, it’s time that he think of playing more aggressively, take control of points earlier, maybe Toni is not doing his job well, time for a change maybe!

      Stan really bagel Cilic this time, impressive!

      • Montanes, Stepanek and Cilic have not putting any pressure on their opponent. I expected Gaba to make a go of it and had Rafa not got a penalty point, I’m sure he would have won the won set 6-0.

        However, it’s not unusual for Rafa to have a slow start in tournaments.

      • I hate to say this, but Rafa’s earlier round matches are getting tougher and tougher these days because players are all trying to blow him off the court, and he’s not doing enough to discourage them from doing so, he only defends and hopes for their level to come down, has Gaba won the first set, which is not impossible, he’ll be all firing up and continues to push Rafa off the court and Rafa will be left scrambling around behind the baseline. If Rafa could come forward and attack with success in the second set, then why doesn’t he play that way in the first place?

        These players play this way against Rafa because they see some successes their fellow players have against Rafa, and Rafa is not doing enough to stop them or at least discourages them from playing like these against him. IMO, he has to exert his authority over them early in the match, that would most likely dash all their hopes early in the match and so make it an earlier job for Rafa to win the match. He has 20+ matches on clay to play if he wants to go deep and wins as many titles as possible on clay, so why waste energy chasing after balls? Let his opponents chase the balls instead!

      • @Lucky, you are right, players are all trying to blow Rafa off the court because that is the only way they will beat him. This is not new. I think you have not been paying enough attention to Gaba, he is a good player. In fact I was hoping it was Simon, not him, who was playing Rafa today!

        Having said that, a player like Gaba is going to be hot but unlikely to sustain that level of hotness, and it showed in the 2nd set. Nothing to worry about.

        Rafa has always had the following MO: start slow and build up intensity as the tournament progresses. I do not expect this to change. Of course the downside to this mo is that he can come across an inspired opponent in the early rounds who can upset the applecart.

        It would be interesting to have an accurate measure of distance covered by these players in a match. They do this stat for soccer I do not see why they cannot do it for tennis. I doubt Rafa covered excessively more than the rest today.

      • No, I also know that GABA is a big hitter and can play well (USO2010 vs Rafa remember?), and I am/was also hoping that it’s Simon that Rafa is meeting today (and that’s why I say thank goodness is not Andujar that Rafa has to meet in the next round).

        Without doubt, among the top four, Rafa is the one doing the most running in his first match here. What do you think, if Rafa started the match coming forward more often, like he did during later part of the match, would he allow GABA to win four games in set one?

      • You know, I remember Rafa being asked his opinion about Novak bringing BB on board and if Rafa expected Novak to become more of a serve and volleyer. Rafa responded thus: it is not easy to change your default play patterns.

        Rafa’s default pattern is defence, for better or for worse. He can be aggressive, but he has to think to be aggressive whereas defense comes naturally. I will never forget one match where Uncle Toni was literally shouting to him to move forward closer to the baseline.

        Also, Rafa has said if he is feeling more confident he is more aggressive and playes closer to the baseline. Clearly Rafa has a cat and mouse mentality, like a boxer. His instincts are to stay out of harm’s way while he looks for weaknesses in his opponent’s game and this is what he was doing in the 1st set. Come the 2nd set, he had Gaba sussed out, this is why it is very difficult to beat Rafa in Slams, he has more time to suss you out.

        The only player he knows he has to come out slugging at full tilt from the get go is Novak, because he knows he drops that first set its an uphill task…..

        He is a thinker, our Rafa………….

      • If Fed at 31 or 32 can make changes to his game and plays more at the forecourt, then why can’t Rafa at 27 make some changes to his game? It’s not like Rafa can’t play from a more aggressive position on the court. Wasn’t he more aggressive back during the clay season in 2010? If he could do it in the past, then why couldn’t he do it now, especially when he knows he’s not going to outlast his opponents, or be fitter or quicker than some of his younger opponents going forward.

        It’s not a drastic change, not like changing from a baseliner to a S&V player. Since he always has this knee issue, why then keep making himself run more and stress his knees? This guy always lacks confidence out there, thinks too much out there, making every match, even some easy ones, looks very tough. We all have seen him play some good attacking tennis even on the slow HCs of Miami, vs. Hewitt and Istomin , why can’t he make himself plays that way more often? It’s easier to win when controlling points and dominating your opponent, more so than being dominated.

      • Rafa has become more aggressive, watch his matches in 2013. Even Djokovic said as much after Rafa beat him at Montreal.

        You seem disappointed in Rafa @Lucky, too bad. I think Rafa’s okay. Overall, I am happy with his game.

        Btw, if Fed is playing more in the forecourt as you say, how has that worked out for him so far? How many titles has this fourcourt position won Fed compared to Rafa? You make it out like Rafa is an abject failure and Fed, Novak, Wawa, Dimi and God knows who else are winning left, right and centre while Rafa is floundering.

        Sorry, I disagree.

      • Fed is not the no. 1 player in the world, and he reaches three finals, winning one this year, is no.4 in the race, not bad for a 32 yo. Like I said, Rafa can be aggressive but many times chooses not to, and see how embarrassingly he was despatched by Novak, Ferrer and Delpo last year? I’ve not seen Fed or Novak losing so easily and lopsidedly in successive tournaments the way Rafa did. All these talks that he’s tired, the least favorite part of the season blah blah blah…as if he’s the only one who’s tired, as if that part of the season is/was everyone’s favorite!

        I’m disappointed with the way he plays/played to be honest. He relies too much on how he feel on the day, relies too much on his defence and instead of finishes matches quickly when he’s tired, he moves the other direction and engages in never ending running and defence that make him even more tired. No wonder he can last only three quarter of a season!

        Since he could play and win matches quickly when he’s on a mission, I wonder why he couldn’t play like he’s on a mission always. Why complicate things by over thinking in every match he plays? It’s tiring for him using so much mental energy each match! Just go out there, plays ruthlessly the way Novak and Fed do, kills his opponents and dash whatever hopes they have. You need to be ruthless to stay on top. Conserve energy for the tough battles at the business end of the tournaments. Why waste energy in the earlier rounds and then feel heavy in the legs when it comes to the SFs or finals?

        Rafa has all the weapons to deal with any player but he sometimes chooses the hard way to do the job. I’m frustrated watching him but don’t tell me not to watch his matches, for he remains by favorite player all the same, just frustrated about his tactics, his approach to his matches and about his lopsided losses to his main rival(s).

      • I have tried in the past to bring out this point (maybe once I even did on TT).Rafa most of the times spends too much of the time in these early rounds. Some tried to defend it by saying that his early round opponents were tough and so on, but the thing is he allows them to play their game early on. Unlike Fed and Nole who just want to take the opponent from the get go and never really want to give their opponent any hope of getting their teeth into the game.
        I remember Rafa beating someone at RG 62 62 62 (or similar scoreline) and that took him around 150 or 160 mins.to do so. If Fed or Nole has to beat someone 62 62 62 it wont take them more than 110 mins or so even if it’s on clay. Those extra 40-45 mins. accumulate over the tournament and the season and does not help his knees either.
        Yes, I know that Rafa knows his game better and knows what he needs to do in order to win. But his early round matches give those in the locker room a possible hope and then they come out all guns firing and he ends up spending those crucial extra seconds on the court.

        This approach may not have costed Rafa in a big way, but I think one player who has made it really hard for himself playing this way is Andy Murray. He just keeps on making every match an uphill battle when he should be dispatching his opponents resulting in fatigue, niggles, injuries etc.

      • @Lucky, you are sounding more and more strident, maybe you need to take a break from watching Rafa play? Honestly, this cannot be fun for you, you sound downright upset all the time. Get some cheer going, honestly, watch a player whose game you like.

        Personally, I am taking a break from reading your posts, they are too depressing! And the funny thing is, I watch Rafa play and I am not depressed, quite the opposite!

        Vamos, looking forward to today’s match!

      • Exactly abhirf, that’s what I was referring to. We have seen Rafa killing his opponents efficiently in very short time, like vs Dolgo at Miami 2011, vs Raonic at Montreal last year, vs all his opponents at MC 2010, and even as recently as at Miami this year. Why he doesn’t do it more often, or simply makes it his way of playing from the very first match of each event, I really don’t understand. It’s not like he’s not capable of doing so, and that’s the frustrating part. I wonder why he said he felt his legs were too slow during the Miami final, was he really that tired so early during the season?

        hawkeye – Fed need not make major changes to his game, just minor tweaks here and there and that’s exactly what he is doing. Likewise, I’m not saying that Rafa needs to have a major revamp of his game, just a minor tweak here and there, like stepping forward more often, taking control of the matches sooner rather than later, make his opponents run and not he himself doing all the running.

        RITB – to each his own. Just enjoy Rafa’s matches the way you enjoy all along.

      • Rafa is #1 precisely because he has a winning formula. If Fed, Novak, Cilic etc had a winning formula, and game, they would be #1, right now.

        So Fed reached finals of 500, 250 tournaments, yep, that is impressive for a 32 year old. He is #4, last time I checked there are no prizes for being second, third or fourth. He starts turning up in Masters 1000 and Slam finals, I will sit up. In the meantime, forgive me if I emit one big, fat yawn.

        Being #1 does not oblige Rafa to play a certain way, his only obligation, TO HIMSELF, is to win. If he is such a dunce, why is he #1? Numbers don’t lie…………

        I get it, you find Rafa’s play and losses embarrassing blah, blah, blah. You only like him when he is playing aggressively, and winning.

        It really would be nice to see posts about these aggressive (“winning”) players: Federer, Novak, Berdych, Cilic, Ferrer (now I have to laugh). This would contrast nicely with the blind Rafa-centric posts some of us are only capable of.

      • Nope. I won’t be upset with him even if he lost playing the best he could, like at AO2012. Its not the loss that’s frustrating, it’s the way he lost! He looked clueless out there, not once, but four times at the end of last year. If tiredness is the reason, then it’s time he think about how to solve the problem, like playing fewer tournaments, ending matches sooner rather than later, etc and etc.

        If you think Ferrer didn’t try to play more aggressively, then look at his matches vs Rafa at Madrid, Rome and Paris last year. Or even his FO match vs Tsonga last year.

      • Luckystar@April 17, 2014 at 9:27 am

        In 2013, Rafa didn’t play more tournaments than he had to play according to the rules.
        I have already written that it was Rafa’s best (!) post US Open swing in last 7 years. He earned more points than ever and reached at least the semifinals in every tournament.

  3. so long as your eyes didn’t complain with pain you were probably ok

    I’ll have to try to watch this match when home from work
    sounds like the back issue is good and well over, ie no hesitations, tentative movements etc?

  4. I think the commies campaigned for the time violation rule because they thought it would benefit Fed. But it doesn’t look as if Fed is now in the reckoning. It is Rafa-Djoko and both are equally affected by the time violation role so the commies now see how silly the rule is. As long is Fed is president there is no chance of the rule being modified.

    • The commies themselves said was just a fraction over the 25 seconds when Pascal Maria warned him. They will try every trick in the book to disrupt Rafa. The should know by now Rafa is like the Incredible Hulk, he is more effective when mad……..

    • You are right, holdserve. Fed thought so too. He even complained after a pasting by Rafa in Australia, that Rafa had only got two warnings in the 33 matches they’ve played.

  5. Mark Petchey said in relation to the point penalty Rafa go that P. Maria is an ITF umpire that’s why he didn’t think his job would be on the line as an ATP’s umpires would be so he is prepared to do what he thinks is right.

    Why would an ATP umpire be scared to give Rafa a penalty point? Answers anyone?

  6. Thank goodness it is not Andujar that Rafa will be playing next. Hopefully Seppi not hitting as hard as he can when facing Rafa, if not Rafa will be running like crazy again. I think Rafa has a tough draw, all those players along the way could blow him off the court – Dimi, Stan, Novak or Berdych. Good luck Rafa, hope you at least survive to defend your points and Novak not making it to the final!

    • Let’s see:

      Dimi, who is being taken to a third by………Albert Ramos. He also labored to a third in his first match I believe.
      Berdych, who last beat Rafa when tynosaurus rex roamed the earth;
      Stan, Lucky Stan!

      Sorry @Lucky, I do not think the above are going to beat Rafa . They will give him a stern test, just like Gaba did, but that is because they are quality opponents on clay, not because Rafa is rubbish.

      Novak will also give Rafa a stern test but I expect Rafa to prevail. Just my humble opinion.

      • Ramos is more aggressive than Rafa! And that’s why he’s giving Dimi all sorts of troubles! Why do you think Rafa always has problem beating Dimi and every single match they played went the distance? I can also see Stan the Man giving Rafa feats here, even though he has a SHBH like Fed, because Stan is very aggressive these days and takes the ball early and moving forward to attack as often as possible. He’s not going to engage in long rallies with Rafa. Not every SHBH is as weak as Fed’s!

        All those players who can take the ball early will give Rafa problems – Davy, Novak, Nishikori – Stan may join the list if he also does that to Rafa. Rafa is giving his opponents so much space to work with, they’ll either serve or hit big to push Rafa even further off the court, comes forward to the net and hit hard to the other corner from where Rafa was standing and defending. How many times we see players hitting winners against Rafa when they hit to the open court especially at his forehand corner?

        I’m not saying Rafa will be losing to any Tom, Dick or Harry, but he’ll waste energy unnecessarily running all over the place, even when he has the weapons to finish them off early.

  7. ritb, the 2nd time they go over the limit they lose their 1st serve, I guess Maria must have thought Rafa went over the limit a 2nd time.

    I am intrigued about the top players having any say on who takes which match. Tsonga once accused an umpire of calling all the lines in Rafa’s favour because he know that he would not do any SFs or finals otherwise.

    Tsonga: Umpire gave Nadal preferential treatment

    KEY BISCAYNE, Fla. (AP) – Jo-Wilfried Tsonga accused the chair umpire of giving Rafael Nadal preferential treatment during their quarterfinal at the Sony Ericsson Open. Nadal said that’s not the case.

    Nadal, bidding for his first Key Biscayne title, won 6-2, 5-7, 6-4 in a match that ended shortly after midnight Friday. Tsonga complained during the match and afterward that when borderline calls went against him, umpire Damian Steiner was reluctant to overrule.

    “It’s not fair,” Tsonga said. “If it’s really close, he would never say ‘out’ against Rafa. If Rafa doesn’t like him anymore, he would not be in the chair many times in a final and semi final.”

    http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/tennis/wires/03/29/3000.ap.ten.nadal.tsonga.umpire.1st.ld.writethru.0286/index.html#ixzz2z3i2JT5S

  8. A rational analysis of Rafa’s Quarter as compared to those of the other 3 shows it is the toughest. But certain logic challenged pundits whose brains probably cannot bear the strain of analysis blithely declare Rafa’s draw is easy because all draws are easy for Rafa at Monte Carlo as proved by his record there! What a cringe worthy moronic analysis!

      • @Lucky, Ferru was hot at Madrid 2013 but you have also to remember Rafa played the WHOLE clay season last year in pain. He was clearly limping throughout Monte Carlo and Madrid. His opponents saw this and obviously put in the extra effort to capitalize. That they failed says what about them?

  9. hawkeye, as I mentioned earlier when I respond to snowdevil, I dumb down my posts but even that it seems is expecting too much.

      • They’re all in a twist right now over whether tanking is cheating.

        I’ve found the rule on the ATP site (even Fed was fined for it), but the moderators won’t allow such truths to be exposed to the federazzi.

      • It’s called selective morality @hawkeye63. If Rafa tanked, the Fedrazzi would not hesitate to call it cheating. If Djokovic or Fed tanked, they would call it smarts.

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