Monte-Carlo R2 previews and picks: Nadal vs. Gabashvili, Federer vs. Stepanek

Rafa4Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer will contest their 2014 Monte-Carlo openers on Wednesday. Nadal is going up against Teymuraz Gabashvili and Federer is facing Radek Stepanek.

(1) Rafael Nadal vs. (Q) Teymuraz Gabashvili

Nadal’s bid to regain the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters title and win the tournament for the ninth time in his career will begin on Wednesday afternoon. The top-ranked Spaniard is 48-2 in Monte-Carlo, with losses coming in the 2003 third round to Guillermo Coria and in last year’s final to Novak Djokovic. Nadal is 21-3 this season, with titles in Doha and Rio de Janeiro. He is coming off a routine 6-3, 6-3 setback against Djokovic in the Miami championship match.

Up first for Nadal is Gabashvili, against whom the No. 1 seed is 3-0 lifetime. Gabashvili booked his spot in the last 32 with a 4-6, 6-4, 6-4 defeat of Gilles Simon on Tuesday. The relatively resurgent Russian is up to No. 58 in the world and he already owns eight ATP-level match wins in 2014. By comparison, he had three such victories in 2012 and 2013 combined. Nadal may take a round or two before he reaches peak form on clay, but on any surface–especially this one–he should have little trouble with Gabashvili.

Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 5-7 games

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Radek Stepanek vs. (4) Roger Federer

Stepanek and Federer will be squaring off for the 16th time in their careers on Wednesday. Federer is dominating the head-to-head series 13-2, including 9-0 in their last nine. Both of Stepanek’s victories came on clay, but those results were back in 2002 (3-6, 6-3, 6-2 in Gstaad) and 2008 (7-6(4), 7-6(7) in Rome). They have faced each other twice in the past year, with Federer prevailing 6-3, 6-3 last spring in Madrid and 6-2, 6-7(4), 6-3 earlier this season in Dubai.

Stepanek’s week got off to a fast start on Monday, when he destroyed Ivo Karlovic 6-1, 6-2. The 35-year-old Czech is still going relatively strong, ranked 41st in the world with a decent 7-6 record in 2014. Federer, of course, will be a much different beast than Karlovic. The fourth-ranked Swiss is 24-4 for the season, which includes a title in Dubai and a runner-up showing in Indian Wells. Clay obviously isn’t Federer’s best surface, but it should serve him well against Stepanek, whose aggressive tactics to keep points short will not work as well.

Pick: Federer in 2 losing 5-7 games

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29 Comments on Monte-Carlo R2 previews and picks: Nadal vs. Gabashvili, Federer vs. Stepanek

  1. RITB, you missed the earlier part of the match when he stepped inside the court, came to the net to finish points with some nice volleying. Look at his court position, he’s definitely not as defensive as Rafa, and he’s playing more attacking tennis (compared to Rafa). It’s because he’s facing Monfils that he ended up having to slug it out as Monfils is so quick around the court. Busta is ranked in the 60s, not in the top 10, so he has to make a big effort to beat a player like Monfils.

      • ^^NNY7: I, too, always look forward to hearing or reading what Rafa has to say about his performance. My Spanish is so poor that I can’t really appreciate those interviews. Even with his limitations with English, he comes across as an introspective, contemplative man. Many Spanish speakers who write about him comment on how articulate he is. You can see when he’s being interviewed in English, he really tries to express himself as clearly as he’s able.

    • Thanks @jpacnw. I am always reassured when I listen to Rafa’s analysis of his matches. He knows what he is doing, he knows where he’s at, he knows what he needs to do.

      All good!

      • Nadline: Actually I’ve been thinking for some months that Rafa has fined down quite a bit. He just looks less bulky in general and has definitely lost some weight in the face – i think it dates from his 7 months sabbatical. What do you think?

  2. holdserve’s comments will now be pending moderation (by me) instead of automatically publishing.

    holdserve, one or two more strikes and you will have to start taking your tennis commentary to other sites.

  3. Yes, I think he is definitely slimmer since his comeback. You notice it more when you watch old matches. Or shall I use the Queen’s English and say one notices it more when one watches old matches. Sounds ridiculous. As Winston Churchill said, ‘this is a rule up with which I will not put’. Lol

    Apparently, his new shorts are a little bit shorter so the pockets are too shallow to hold a ball that’s why he only uses one ball for the 2nd serve. I’m surprised this wasn’t picked up during the fitting sessions he must have done. Nike, makes out that these outfits are carefully constructed but I wonder, because they do have some howlers, especially the non absorbent material they use sometimes.

  4. Luckystar@April 16, 2014 at 2:04 pm

    You have always wanted to change Rafa (I remember it from TT). You even wanted him to stop biting trophies. And you threatened to start to support Cilic instead Rafa, if Rafa did things his way.

    • How can I change Rafa when I’m not even his coach!? Cilic is even more frustrating a player than Rafa! I truly feel that they are two players that really haven’t realized their full potential, yes, even when Rafa is the no.1 now!

      There’re certain things that Rafa still can improve or add to his game and that’s why I think he’s very talented and even when not realizing his full potential, he’s already a no.1 player and owns practically everyone in the tour except Novak. Maybe the rise of Novak is a wake up call for Rafa, that he has to dig further, to search for ways to improve his game and brings it to another level that he’s capable of reaching.

      Novak looks very comfortable out there on any court now, I think he’s well prepared this time for the clay courts, started practicing on it, at the MC courts well before the tournament started. Rafa OTOH said that he only started practicing on clay the Friday before the week he left for MC! Novak is not as good a mover on clay and grass as Rafa is all along but he puts in more effort these days to get used to the court surfaces well before playing the tournaments. Novak is not a naturally good volleyer, I would say he doesn’t have deft touches or soft hands like Fed, Murray and Rafa, but he’s doing his best to improve in that area, though I cringe each time I see Novak at the net, and his volleying looks rather unnatural.

      I don’t know how much more Novak can still improve but I’ve no question that there’s greater room for improvement in Rafa’s game than in Novak’s. Another player who is frustrating to watch is Murray. Murray should have won many matches that he lost to Novak, like that Rome 2011 SF, that Shanghai 2012 final and even the recent Miami match where Novak unfairly gotten that point at the net. Murray chooses to forego his good net game and prefers to stay at the baseline and outlast his opponents.

      I’ll always support Rafa whether he’s frustrating to watch or not, but do hope he still can play better than what he’s doing now.

      Sometimes, watching the young up and coming guys can be more relaxing, players like Thiem, Carreno Busta, and the more promising ones like Nishikori, Dolgo and Dimi though there are also the frustrating ones like Tomic and Jerzy.

      • luckystar, are you judging an injured Rafa against a fit Novak? Don’t forget that Rafa has had back injury to cope with since the AO. Anyway, Novak hasn’t won a slam since AO 2013, nor has he won a slm outside Australia since the USO in 2011. That’s how perfect he is.

        Novak claims to have wrist injury now, though I still thing he will roll over PCB.

      • Luckystar@April 17, 2014 at 8:41 am

        I think, Rafa has achieved a lot after he was told at the age of 19 that he might never be able to play tennis again, because the abnormal position/growth of a tarsal bone of his left foot started to cause him excruciating pain.

  5. @abhirf says:
    April 17, 2014 at 5:20 am

    Rafa does generally start slowly, I think partly because rhythm is a big part of his game and he needs to build that up during the match but I also believe that players think they have to do something special when up against Rafa so they always come on with a plan and a lot of aggression which they don’t do against other top players. They feel that they have to play their best game against Djokovic or Federer or Murray but they don’t have to change it.

    • There you go. Why do these players come up with aggression against Rafa. Because he entertains them. He always start playing defensively against them thus sometimes end up playing catch up tennis. Somewhere he realises that his opponent will not be able to sustain that level and fade away. He waits for the phase to pass. Why not counter their aggression with his own. It’s not like he cant play good aggressive tennis like last years IW or Montreal.
      These same guys dont try out full blown aggression against Fed or Nole because they counter their aggression with being even more aggressive than them and then their opponents lose faith in trying something different.
      Murray is even a worse case than Rafa. I haven’t really understood where his problems lie. The guy has the ability to take out the best while being aggressive yet he choses to just counter punch from the baseline and allows his opponents to blow him off the court. sometimes it feels like he wants his opponent to lose the match rather than wanting to win it.

      • Because, he knows that aggression + low ranking = eventual errors

        Therefore he plays high percentage tennis instead of taking chances.

        Won’t work against Nole though and he’s said the same.

      • hawkeye63 says:
        April 17, 2014 at 1:01 pm

        Thank you. We all know how Fed plays aggressively against lower ranked players in the early rounds and have the commies drooling over his “magnificence ” , telling everyone he is going to win the tournament only for him to flounder miserably as soon as he comes across the first big test in the latter rounds…………..

        There are no prizes for winning the early rounds, no matter how aggressively………….

        Listen to Rafa’s interview yesterday, he wants to play longer points in the early rounds to get into rhythm. Now, one may quibble with that but one gotta agree: there is method to his madness…………..

      • @ritb, like I mentioned earlier, I appreciate that Rafa knows what he needs to do in order to win. But I still don’t get how he can’t derive rhythm by playing more aggressive. Sometimes it feels as if he needs more of confidence in his game than the rhythm. But then again it’s just my opinion.

      • There really is s reason Rafa is THE all-time great on clay. I have never understand the logic of people who say Rafa only waits for his opponents to make mistakes. The question is: why not? Given a choice between letting your opponent implode and you having to work to “kill” him, which would you choose?

        It takes more than just brawn to win tournament after tournament the way Rafa has been doing all these years, it also takes smarts…………..

      • Rhythm is very much connected to confidence for Rafa. Yes, his game has the appearance of struggle, suffering, but that has always been his game, no? He cannot change that now……

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