Miami R3 preview and predictions: Nadal vs. Kohlschreiber

Rafael Nadal and Philipp Kohlschreiber will be facing each other for the 15th time in their careers when they battle for a spot in the fourth round of the Miami Open on Sunday.

Nadal is dominating the head-to-head series 13-1, including 7-0 on hard courts. Kohlschreiber’s lone victory came when Nadal is often at his most vulnerable–the week immediately following a French Open title when the surface changes from clay to grass. At the 2012 Halle tournament, right after the Spaniard captured a seventh title at Roland Garros, Kohlschreiber cruised 6-3, 6-4 in a quarterfinal showdown. Nadal has since reeled off five wins in a row, most recently prevailing 6-3, 6-3 on the red clay of Rome last spring.

With Roger Federer–who took down Nadal in the Australian Open final and at the Indian Wells Masters–on the opposite side of the draw and potential fourth-round foe Grigor Dimitrov also out, Nadal should be in good shape to go for a while in Miami. The world No. 7 got off to a decent enough start on Friday afternoon, when he beat Dudi Sela 6-3, 6-4 without dropping serve.

In typical Kohlschreiber fashion, the 31st-ranked German is in solid but unspectacular form this season. He just barely missed out on the spectacular in Dubai, where he squandered seven match points against world No. 1 Andy Murray, lost a 30-minute tiebreaker, and eventually fell 6-7(4), 7-6(18), 6-1. Kohlschreiber is 10-6 for his 2017 campaign and coming off a hard-fought 7-5, 3-6, 7-6(4) victory over Taylor Fritz during second-round action. The No. 26 seed trailed 5-2 in the final set and watched Fritz serve for the match twice before storming back for the win.

Against Nadal, Kohlschreiber cannot afford the wild shifts in his level of play that were on display against Fritz. Unless the underdog is striking his one-handed backhand almost the way Federer has been hitting it this year, Nadal should enjoy mostly one-way traffic.

Pick:ย Nadal in 2 losing 8 games or fewer

[polldaddy poll=9706005]

16 Comments on Miami R3 preview and predictions: Nadal vs. Kohlschreiber

  1. Well at least he did better at the slam (ie AO this year) so maybe we can still hope for good results at the slams, FO in particular? If he can still produce results like MC and Barcelona last year then maybe that’s all we can hope for at the non slam events?

    • Yeah lucky…even in his poor form,i never stop believe in him..that one day the old rafa will emerge and swept everyone aside and win a slam again..his form is not too far away me thinks..i just wait patiently atm to see him tweaks one or two things in his game so it can be more effective and dangerous again…i know he’s trying very hard to overcome the difficulties whether in his head or his spirit…the key..be patient..

  2. Personally, I think that anyone who writes off a guy would was 3 service holds from winning the major that took place two months ago is nuts… If Fed can do it at 35, Rafa can absolutely do it at 30. Hell, Rafa isn’t even the age yet that Fed was when he won his previous slam in 2012! ๐Ÿ™‚ I can’t claim that it definitely will happen, but it would take one bold (and imo moronic) human to say that Rafa will definitely never win another major…

    • Sampras was 18 in the world when he won his last slam.

      Rafa can do it but practising ground strokes is trying to fix the symptom, not the problem.

      • Can’t argue with you there, Hawks! It will be really interesting to see where he stands at Monte Carlo. I was really impressed with his form there last year. Beating Stan and Murray on the way to the title was impressive… So was his win over Kei in Barcelona. It was unfortunate that he wasn’t able to get Murray in Madrid, and wasn’t able to at least take that set off Djokovic in Rome. But he definitely showed a good improvement in form going into the clay season last year, and it would be nice to see him do the same this year. But first let’s see what he does in Miami! ๐Ÿ™‚

      • Yeeeaaah, I’ve honestly been really stressed and busy with life lately, and just didn’t get around to it. ๐Ÿ™ I really do want to in the future! Although I guess that if I am able to post comments on here, then I have no excuse for not filling out a bracket right? ๐Ÿ™‚

        • Hehehe..yeah kevin!spot on!..But that’s okay…MC will come soon and please please join us this time around Kevin…it’s fun!I will wait for u okay?

    • Best hope for Nadal to win another major (in this order):
      1. Improve his serve (somehow, if possible/back permitting)
      2. Ditch Toni and hire a new coach with an attacking mindset and the willingness to take Rafa out of his comfort zone.
      3. Independent of 2, commit to coming into net more often to shorten points. This will become more important as Rafa ages and his foot-speed declines further.

      I am not sure that (1) is possible due to various injuries; and I think Nadal puts family too much above tennis (probably rightly) ever to do (2) -without which (3) is very unlikely to happen.

      I conclude that Rafa’s best chance to win another major probably passed two months ago.

  3. What is Carlos moya doing…why has he not made much difference to Rafa yet ? He wanted him to be aggressive but Rafa is anything but aggressive

  4. The serving was so much better in sets 2 and 3. he was going for the lines and the corners a lot frequently and mixed them up with body serves. His accuracy on the serves is not that bad so he shouldn’t be scared to do it. Like I said, players now anticipate his body serves and all it takes is one good split step to get into the right position once they’ve anticipated. If Rafa really wants to go for body serves, he should look at clocking 195-205 kmh serves at least. I don’t mind the occasional twist serve into the body but please, NO PREDICTABILITY.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.