Rafael Nadal and Philipp Kohlschreiber will be facing each other for the 15th time in their careers when they battle for a spot in the fourth round of the Miami Open on Sunday.
Nadal is dominating the head-to-head series 13-1, including 7-0 on hard courts. Kohlschreiber’s lone victory came when Nadal is often at his most vulnerable–the week immediately following a French Open title when the surface changes from clay to grass. At the 2012 Halle tournament, right after the Spaniard captured a seventh title at Roland Garros, Kohlschreiber cruised 6-3, 6-4 in a quarterfinal showdown. Nadal has since reeled off five wins in a row, most recently prevailing 6-3, 6-3 on the red clay of Rome last spring.
With Roger Federer–who took down Nadal in the Australian Open final and at the Indian Wells Masters–on the opposite side of the draw and potential fourth-round foe Grigor Dimitrov also out, Nadal should be in good shape to go for a while in Miami. The world No. 7 got off to a decent enough start on Friday afternoon, when he beat Dudi Sela 6-3, 6-4 without dropping serve.
In typical Kohlschreiber fashion, the 31st-ranked German is in solid but unspectacular form this season. He just barely missed out on the spectacular in Dubai, where he squandered seven match points against world No. 1 Andy Murray, lost a 30-minute tiebreaker, and eventually fell 6-7(4), 7-6(18), 6-1. Kohlschreiber is 10-6 for his 2017 campaign and coming off a hard-fought 7-5, 3-6, 7-6(4) victory over Taylor Fritz during second-round action. The No. 26 seed trailed 5-2 in the final set and watched Fritz serve for the match twice before storming back for the win.
Against Nadal, Kohlschreiber cannot afford the wild shifts in his level of play that were on display against Fritz. Unless the underdog is striking his one-handed backhand almost the way Federer has been hitting it this year, Nadal should enjoy mostly one-way traffic.
Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 8 games or fewer
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Against Kohlschreiber, Nadal cannot afford the wild shifts in his level of play that were on display against Fritz, I mean Sela.
See what I did just there?
23UEs with 15 from the FH won’t beat many players including Kohlschreiber.
While Rafa is 7-0 h2h on hard courts with Phillip “Glass” Kohlschreiber, only one was in straight sets (and even that one had a tiebreak). Every one of these matches, one could argue Rafa’s level at the time was better than it’s been since Australia.
Unless Rafa returns to his AO pre-final level, this one’s gonna be close folks.
So let’s all pretend Rafa’s (as Ricky describes it) “decent enough” performance vs Sela can be put down to first match characteristic jitters under windy conditions and take Rafa in three (including a tiebreak).
Rafa has had tough matches against Kohls. He can give Rafa a match. Maybe it was the wind, but Rafa cannot afford all those forehand errors. He will need to be sharper.
If Rafa plays better, then it might be a straight setter. But uf he has lapses and makes too many UE’s, then this could go 3 sets. But I do see Rafa winning.
Kohli for the win
On paper Nadal should win this but Kohlschreiber is a tough customer so we’ll see. Here’s a nice article on the big three which covers Nadal and I liked http://www.138mph.com/decoding-the-big-three-murray/
Rafa in 2…H2H will get extend to 8-0..wooohooo!!C’Mon rafa!!
Rafa needs to play better. Forehand was vulgar against Sela so hoping that won’t be the case. He should win this in 2 sets.could easily go 3 sets if the forehand is still struggling.
Why 2 VR?
think he will improve.
I meant when you consider that 6 of 7 on HC meetings have not.
As much as I truly want the Clay Goat to reach Final and face the real GOAT, I am afraid Nadal may lose rhus match in 3 sets.
This*
Rafa in two losing eight games or fewer
Stay focused, remain confident, be strong and fight bravely, Rafa!
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C72jwVDXUAAbdH4.jpg
Rafa’s FH may have been iffy the other day, and Kohls may be a tough player, but I just don’t see Rafa losing to someone of his Kohls’ relative caliber… Streaking Querrey notwithstanding, Rafa has beaten every player on Kohls’ level this year. I don’t see that changing now… Also I picked Rafa to win the title. 🙂
hey kevin, see you inbox 🙂
Raonic out. Draw open for Rafa now.
rafa spent most of his practice session on hitting forehands…. he was practicing the combo of one heavy CC and then a flat one inside out to finish.
Didn’t work.
Crap Rafa of 2015 in da house.
Kohls in two.
And that was BEFORE the break.
Rafa dumping his first serve on his first point was the tell. Then he followed up by horribly passive play and several UEs.
The fearhand is back. But it’s Rafa who fears it now.
Holy cow. Now any single handed backhander is taking him to the cleaners
This is kind of depressing. Kohls is playing pretty well but Rafa is SO DAMN TENTATIVE! He came out so playing such under-confident tennis.
What I fail to understand is what has happened to Rafa’s serve! it is absolute crap at the moment. The first serves are so SAFE. He keeps hitting into the strike zones of players and and the body serves are NOT going to work all the time for heavens sake! Everyone knows you’ve been going for way too many body serves.
He is about to get bagelled from KOHLCHREBIBER if he doesn’t save this game here.
I try to be optimistic but this is shit tennis from Rafa/
So 5-0 it is. Someone please explain me the mentality. You almost win the first slam of the year and then all of a sudden you get so under-confident? :s he was better in Acapulco but ever since he has come to North America, it’s been horrendous.
Please Rafa, believe in yourself and do something in the next set.
Rafa about to get bageled, sets gone focus on the next, hopefully this will make him angry and dangerous ….
Bagel chance? Against kohli…Wonder what federer or djokovic would have done to him
Kohls hasn’t beaten ANY Top 10 player in a Masters 1000 since 2011 having lost his last 19 encounters.
You could tell the fear was back after the very first point.
A far cry from his January level.
#AnxietyIsEverywhere
That’s SEVEN years ago folks!
Haha. Yeah ok SIX years ago.
(My grade 1 math fails me when I’m frustrated).